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金融政策論議の不思議(1) 量的緩和とは一体何だったのか

最近景気が回復しつつあるのだそうだ。それはそれで大変結構なことなのだが、ひとつ気になることがある。2年位前に随分騒がれた量的緩和という奴は結局何だったのだろうか、ということだ。量的緩和は景気回復に効果があったんだろうか?それとも無駄だったのか?この質問に明快に答えられる人が世の中にどれだけいるだろう。

例えば、今日銀は当座預金残高(日銀の金庫に民間銀行が預けているお金)というものを政策の根幹にすえており、これが増えると景気を回復方向に(金融緩和)、減ると景気を減速方向に(金融引き締め)向かわせることになるという。

筆者は証券業界に籍を置いていた時にこの当座預金について学ぶ機会があったのだが、「当座預金残高が増えれば景気は回復へ向かう」という議論はとうとう理解できなかった。日銀の金庫に現金を積み上げて鍵をかけて放っておくことでなぜ景気が回復するのか?今頃あの現金は金庫の中でキノコの苗床にならんばかりの勢いで腐っているのではなかろうか。恐らく、マネーマーケットに関わる者なら皆似たようなやりきれなさを共有していたのではないかと思う。

経験則と経済学の論理

経済学の面白さのひとつは、経験から得られる直感が実は間違っている事を鮮やかに描き出して見せることにある。筆者が経済学を勉強したのもそれが理由だ。だが、その場合は市場関係者が抱く直感がなぜ間違っているのかきちんと説明できなければならない。

その説明を求めて、筆者は半年ほど前にネット上でいくつか金融緩和について議論したサイトを見つけた。全体的にいわゆる「量的緩和」を支持するサイトが多かったように思う。実際、クルーグマンやスティグリッツといった学界の著名人も量的緩和(又は、量的緩和を含む金融緩和策)を支持していたのだからそれは当然だろうし、実際彼らの議論には説得力もある。ただ、彼らの議論の都合のいいところだけをつまみ食いした結果、どうもおかしな結論になってしまっていると思えるサイトも少なくなかった。

そのあたりの議論をもう一度整理することで、市場関係者が抱く直感と経済学から導かれる理論とがどれだけ異なりまたどれだけ似ているのか、再検証してみる事はそんなに無意味なことでもなさそうだ。そう思えたことがこの原稿を書くきっかけになった。

このシリーズの狙い

そこでこのサイト最初のシリーズ物として、量的緩和がどれだけ意味があったのか、少し否定的な観点から考えてみることにしたい。議論のツールはあくまでも経済学だが、別に予備知識がなくとも読めるように書いていくつもりだ。このシリーズを通して、金融政策に対する考え方の多様性を少しでも多くの人に分かってもらえれば、筆者の目的は達せられたようなものだ。

正直言って、筆者はこの手の問題の専門家ではない。これから書くことには間違いも含まれてしまうかも知れない。そのあたりは随時ご指摘・ご指導を賜れればありがたい。その過程で筆者も勉強しながら、金融政策について少し毛並みの違った文章が残せれば、筆者としては上出来だと思っている。

世界的にインフレの恐れがささやかれ始め、いよいよグリーンスパンも金融引き締めに転じた今になって、量的緩和策をどうこう言い出すのはちょっと間が抜けている気もする。こちらのサイトからは高らかな勝利宣言が出ているし。ただ、勝ったなら勝ったで、いわゆる量的緩和論者の意見のどこが間違っていたのかを明らかにしないと、議論としては健全ではないだろう。そのためにも、一度量的緩和政策について整理しておく事は無駄にはならないと思うのだ。

これから書くことのまとめ(予定)

・デフレはやっぱり問題だ
・日銀が国債をひたすら買うだけでは効果はほとんど無い
・現状でのインフレターゲットの導入は有害無益
・銀行への公的資金導入はデフレ対策として機能しうる
・確実な効果を期待するなら財政拡大と国債購入を同時に行うマネタイゼーション

このネタでお勧めのサイト

山形浩生氏の「『クルーグマン教授の<ニッポン>経済入門』(春秋社, 2003)サポートページ
黒木玄氏の「暗闇への跳躍:クルーグマンによる日本の経済政策批判」の特にこの部分
羊堂本舗氏の「インフレ目標
Bewaad氏の「余は如何にして利富禮主義者となりし乎

あたりがまとまっている。ちなみにどれも量的緩和賛成のサイト。山形氏のサイトにはプリンストン大学のクルーグマン教授が日本の金融政策について書いた本のほぼ全文が掲載されており、とりあえずこれを読まないと始まらない(実はまだ筆者も読み終わってないのだが・・・)必読のサイト。
黒木氏のサイトは少々読みにくいがウェブ上での議論がそのまま記録されており、議論の流れを確認するのに便利。主だった参考文献も網羅されている。
羊堂本舗氏のサイトは学術論文関係へのリンクが豊富。デザインも見やすい。
Bewaad氏のサイトは平易でまとまりが良く、何よりその情報量は素晴らしいの一言。筆者がこのシリーズを書く気になったきっかけを作ってくれたサイトでもある。筆者がこれから書こうとしていることとは(半分くらい)主張が逆なので、あわせて読んで頂けるとバランスが取れるのではないかと思う。

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