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金融政策論議の不思議(2) そもそも、デフレはなぜいけないのか

さて、金融政策について考える前に、なぜ今(というより2年前)デフレがやたらと目の敵にされていたのか、一度整理しておこう。もう語りつくされたことの繰り返しになるのだが、結局この部分を理解しないと先に進めないのだ。

デフレによる格安消費生活の夢と幻

単純に言って、物価が下がる事は個人的には悪いことではない。欲しかったあれもこれもが買えるようになるし、生活の質は確実に向上する。ただし、今我々が格安消費生活をエンジョイできているということは、商品の作り手は値下がりによる売上減少に苦しんでいるということでもある。格安消費生活の条件は物価が下がっても自分の所得は変わらないことだから、売上は減っても人件費は変わらない-つまり、企業の利益が減る。

もしかしたら「値段が下がる分売上の量は増えるから問題ないだろ」と思う人もいるかもしれない。だが、売上の量が増えれば人件費も上がる。結局、同じ売上高を達成しても人件費は上がっているので、利益が減少することには変わりない。

利益が減少すると恐らくいくつかの会社は資金繰りに詰まって倒産する。倒産しない会社も事業整理を始めるかもしれない。その結果失業が増える。この段階で国の総生産(GDP)も減少している。ようするに不景気になる。これがデフレと不景気がほとんどイコールだと言われる理由だ。

デフレでも不景気にならない場合:賃金の問題

ところが、デフレが上で書いたような失業の増加につながらないケースもある。物価が下がった分と同じ分だけ賃金が下がればよいのだ。格安消費生活はあきらめなければならないが、所得と物価が同じだけ下がっているので生活の質が下がるわけではない。勤め先の利益は減らないので失業の心配もしなくて良い。つまり何も変わらない。賃金が物価にあわせて柔軟に変化するなら、物価が100倍になろうと10分の1になろうと、世の中はこれっぽっちも影響を受けないのだ。

ところが、現実には賃金はなかなか減らせない。いくら「物価が下がってるんだから賃金減らしてもいいよね」と言われても、魂のレベルで納得できない人の方が多いだろう。思わず赤いハチマキを締めて街を練り歩きたくなる人だっているはずだ。しかも、雇用契約はこれから1年間の賃金を決めるものだから、重要なのは今の物価ではなく、これからのインフレ率だ。将来の物価は予想は出来ても知る事は出来ない。だから交渉は更に難しくなる。

実際に賃金がバブル以降にどう変化したか見ておこう。下のグラフは毎月勤労統計の賃金指数(赤)と消費者物価指数(黒)の推移だ。

wage-cpi2.gif

98年ごろ、山一證券がつぶれたりしてパニックになりかけた時期はマイナスになっているのだが、それ以降はインフレ率がずっとマイナスであるのに賃金はほぼゼロ以上をキープしている。失業率が上がるのも道理だ。ただし、2002年を除けば非常に低い水準に抑えられているのもまた事実で、日本の労働者の物分りのよさを反映していると言えるかもしれない。この物分りのよさが無ければ、失業率はもっと跳ね上がっていたはずだ。

デフレでも不景気にならないためのもう1つの条件:金利の問題

上の議論は企業と労働者の関係だけに注目したのだが、実は企業とその出資者の関係を考えると、もう1つ問題が出てくる。金利だ。普通企業は元手が無ければ商売を始められない。その元手は誰かから借りてくることになる。後は商売で得た利益の一部を金利として支払えば良いわけだが、デフレだとこのプロセスが機能しない。

本当なら、投資プランの予想収益率がデフレのせいでマイナスであったとしても、マイナスの金利で資金が調達できれば投資は実行可能だ。これから物価は下がっていくのだから、自分の預貯金がその分だけ目減りしても特に問題ないはずであり、マイナス金利でもお金を預ける / 投資することはそれほど非合理的ではない。

ところが、投資家にとっては他の全ての投資プラン(銀行預金も含めて)がマイナス金利であっても、必ずゼロ金利を保証してくれる現金という究極の資産保有手段を持っている。だから絶対にマイナス金利ではお金を貸さない。こうして企業の資金繰りは逼迫し、デフレ=不景気の図式を強化することになるわけだ。

金利が当たり前にマイナスになる日

蛇足だが、金利がゼロ以下にならないのは、経済で「現金」という極めて古典的な取引手段が幅を利かせているせいだ。もし全ての商取引が電子マネーなりカード決済なりで行われるようになった場合、我々は物理的に貨幣を持つ必要が無くなる。この場合、資産は現金以外のもので保有せねばならなくなり、現金以外の全ての資産はマイナス金利に設定可能だ。銀行窓口に「オドロキの高金利!5年定期が-1.5%!」といったpopが並ぶのも、将来的には結構ありえることなのだ。

その頃には、デフレもそれほど怖いものではなくなっているかもしれない。

「期待」インフレ率の重要性

さて、次回以降の議論のために1つだけ強調しておきたいことがある。それは上の賃金の話でも、金利の話でも、問題になっていたのは足元の物価水準ではなく、これから物価がどれだけ上がるか(下がるか)の予想値、つまり期待インフレ率であったということだ。重要なのは過去のインフレ率の動きでもなければ、今現在の物価水準でもない。そんなものは経済に何の影響も及ぼさないのだ。

本日のまとめ

賃金と金利がマイナスになりにくい限り、デフレはやっぱり問題だ。

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