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金融政策論議の不思議(3) どうすればインフレ率を上げることが出来るのか

前回は色々書いたが要するに「デフレはまずいので何とかしてインフレにしないといけませんね」ということだ。ではどうすればいいんだろう。

インフレ率を上げるには2つの方法がある。

・需要を増やす / 供給を減らす
・世の中に流通するマネーの量を増やす

一つ目は分かりやすい。Yahoo オークションあたりに参加してらっしゃる人々は骨身に染みているだろうが、希少品の値段はつりあがるし、そうでなくても人気の高いものはやっぱり高い値段で落札される。2点目はちょっと分かりづらいので、説明は後回しにしよう。

1点目:需要を増やしてインフレを起こす

需要を増やす方法はいくつか考えられる。

手っ取り早い方法は、財政支出を増やすこと。道路を敷きまくったり使われもしない立派な公民館を建てまくってもいいし、減税をして消費を刺激したっていい。財政支出そのものが需要なので、需要は確実に増える。ただ、これだけ財政赤字が溜まってしまうと単純に「公共投資を拡大せよ!」と言える状態ではなさそうだ。亀井静香氏じゃあるまいし。

まぁ日本には無敵の1400兆円の個人資産もあることだし、あと1回くらいド派手に公共投資を行う事は可能かもしれない。とりあえず財政政策については、やれば必ず効果があるが出来るかどうかが不透明ということで一旦保留にしておこう。

もう1つの方法は輸出(つまり、海外からの需要)を増やすこと。とはいえ、海外の需要を直接どうこうできるわけではないので、為替レートを円安に誘導することで輸出品の価格を割安にし、輸出を増やすわけだ。

理論的には為替レートの円安誘導は必ず実行できる。ターゲットの為替水準になるまで無制限に介入し続ければよいのだ。スヴェンソン教授(ストックホルム大学)が主張するように、固定相場制を敷いたっていい。というより、現状の2003年度に30兆円以上も介入したにもかかわらず為替レートは1ドル110円近辺をキープし続けている事を考えると、固定相場制のような仕組みを追加しないと安定的に円安誘導する事は難しいと考えるべきだろう。

ただし、これをやれば他国との貿易摩擦は必須だ。他の国からすれば格安な日本製品が自国市場を席巻して国内企業の売上が落ちることになるのだから、面白かろうはずが無い。この問題を政治的に解決できるかどうかは筆者には良く分からないが、正直財政政策以上に難易度は高い気がする。

供給を減らしてインフレを狙う手もないではない。

構造改革というのは、ある意味供給を減らして過当競争を排し、物価を安定上昇に向かわせる策と取れないことも無い。ただし、前回デフレが良くないと書いたのは、デフレが失業増と生産減を招くからだ。デフレを解決するために生産を減らすのでは本末転倒であるし、失業が増えた段階で需要も減ってしまうので、堂々巡りに陥る恐れがある。

ただ、目先のデフレに耐えることで将来のデフレ脱却が約束されるのなら、実行する価値はないわけでない。その場合の条件は、クルーグマン教授も書いているが、「さっさと仕事にかかって、さっさと終えること」だ(36ページ)。これについては、別の機会に少し詳しく書くことにしよう。

2点目:マネーサプライを増やしてインフレを起こす

こうしてみると、需要を増やしたり供給を減らしたりしてインフレを起こすやり方はどうも一長一短で、決め手に欠ける。そこで2点目の、世の中に流通するマネーの量を増やす方法を考えてみよう。

世の中のほとんどの取引はモノとお金を交換することで成立している。今日どこぞのコンサートのチケットを1万円で買ったあなたは、チケットの価値と1万円の価値がつりあっていると思ったから買ったわけだ。

繰り返すが、希少なものの価値は高くなり、ありふれたものの価値は低い。お金も同じことだ。もし神様がいたずら心で国民一人につき1億円をもれなくプレゼントしたとすると、お金の希少性は損なわれ、お金の価値は低くなる。1万円の価値は暴落するので、チケットの価値とつりあわせるためには恐らく万札を束で用意しなければならなくなるだろう(この極端な形が第1次大戦後のドイツ)。

つまり、世の中で流通するマネーの量を増やすことが出来れば、物価は上がる。増やし続ければインフレ率が上がる。これが金融政策だ。

金利がゼロでなければ、世の中で流通するマネーの量(マネーサプライと呼ぶ)を増やす事はそんなに難しいことではない。金利を下げることで、企業や個人はお金を気軽に借りるようになる。あとは日銀が銀行を通して彼らにお金を貸してあげれば、マネーサプライが増えるわけだ。ところが、ゼロ金利では一気に難易度が上がる。それについては次回。

本日のまとめ

デフレを解決する方法には主に財政拡大、円安誘導、金融政策があるが、どれも実行可能性に問題がある。

マネーサプライを増やせればインフレに出来る。

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