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金融政策論議の不思議(4) 「量的緩和」は効果が無い

前回は財政政策や円安誘導は実行可能性に疑問があると書いた。そこで金融政策に期待が集まったわけだが、まず金融政策はどのようにしてマネーサプライを増やすのか(マネーサプライを増やせばインフレになる事は前回書いた)を確認しておこう。

資金需要をどう刺激するかが金融政策の勘所

マネーサプライという言い方をするので誤解しやすいが、統計の数字としてのマネーサプライは資金供給と資金需要がつりあった「均衡」値のことだ。需要を超える供給をすることは絶対に出来ない(いわゆる、「嫌がる馬に水を飲ませる事は出来ない」という議論)し、供給を超える需要が満たされることも無い。

通常、日銀は資金供給を自由にコントロールできる。銀行が大量に抱えている国債を購入し、代わりに現金で支払う。後は銀行がその現金をどこかの企業に貸し付けたりすれば、マネー(とりあえず貨幣のことだと思ってもらいたい)は経済に供給されるわけだ。

ただし、供給額に見合った需要があるかどうかはまったく別の問題だ。需要以上に供給しようとしても、そのお金は誰も手をつけないまま日銀の金庫に眠り続けることになる。つまり、マネーサプライを増やすためには、どうにかして増やしたい資金供給に見合うだけ資金需要を刺激しなければならないわけだ。

通常の金融政策:金利を下げて需要を増やす

通常、経済学では資金需要は以下の2つの要素に左右されると考える。

ひとつはGDP(総生産)。 あらゆる取引にはマネー(とりあえず貨幣のことだと考えてもらいたい)が必要だ。経済活動が活発になればなるほど、必要なマネーの量は増える。

もうひとつは金利。金利が低いほど企業や個人はお金が借りやすくなる。お金を借りたいという企業が増えれば、資金需要が増える

GDPを直接増やすのは財政政策の仕事なので、一旦忘れよう。そこで日銀は金利を下げることで資金需要を増やそうとする。いわゆる利下げというやつだ。

金利を下げる方法はいくつかあるのだが、普通は国債の買いオペレーション(買いオペ)という方法を用いる。つまり、日銀が国債を買うと国債相場が動き(国債の価格が上がる)、国債の利回りが低下する(このメカニズムは特に説明しないが、国債価格の上昇=金利の低下となる)。金利が下がると資金需要が増える。同時に日銀が国債を買うことで購入代金が支払われ(これが資金供給)、資金需要と資金供給が今までよりも高いところでつりあってマネーサプライが増えるわけだ。

そんなわけで、普段は日銀は資金需要をどう刺激するかなんて事を特に気にする必要が無い。資金供給を増やす(国債を買って現金で支払う)ことそれ自体が金利を下げる役割を果たすので、資金需要は自動的に増えた資金供給に見合うだけ増加するからだ。

ところが、金利がゼロになってしまうとこの手が使えない。国債を買っても金利は既にゼロ(またはそれに近いレベル)なのでそれ以上下がりようがなく、資金需要も増加しない。これが日銀がゼロ金利ですっかり手詰まりになってしまった根本的な理由だ。ゼロ金利では、国債をただ買い続けてもマネーを供給できないのだ。

「バーナンキの背理法」の使い方

このあたりの議論に詳しい方の中には「バーナンキの背理法からひたすら日銀が買いオペをすれば問題ない!」と主張する方もいる(以下、「日銀が国債を買い続けることで問題は解決する」と主張する人たちの事を量的緩和論者と呼ぶ)。バーナンキの背理法とは、Bewaad氏FAQによると(ソースが見つからないのでどなたかご存知の方がいらしたら教えていただきたい)「中央銀行が無限に国債を買い続けて、それでもインフレにならないとすると、いつか政府は税金ゼロで運営できるようになる(全財政赤字を日銀が吸収してくれるから)。しかしそんなことは不可能なので、中央銀行が無限に国債を買い続けてインフレが起こらないという事はありえない」というものだそうだ。

だがちょっと待って欲しい。バーナンキ(ちなみに、バーナンキ氏はプリンストン大学教授。非常に著名な経済学者)は無税国家はありえないからインフレは必ず起こると言っている。つまり、言い換えると「中央銀行が国債を無限に購入し、同時に政府も無限に財政拡大(減税or支出増)を続ければ必ずインフレになるよ」と言っているに過ぎない。大体、政府が無限に財政赤字を増やさなければ、国債を無限に購入するという前提条件が成り立たないではないか。

だから、バーナンキの背理法を使って国債の買いオペの有効性を主張するのなら、その人は財政支出の拡大も同時に主張していなければ筋が通らない。ところが、実際には財政拡大とのポリシーミックスが不可欠だと主張していた人はどちらかというと少数派だったような気がする(せいぜい、財政拡大もやったほうが良いというスタンスだった)。

マネタイゼーション:日銀と政府のあわせ技一本

上で書いた財政拡大と国債買いオペのポリシーミックスをもう少し説明しよう。今回の最初に書いたが、資金需要を増やすには2つ方法があった。金利とGDPだ。金利はもう使えないが、政府と日銀が協力して財政拡大(=GDP増加)と買いオペを同時に行えば、資金需要と資金供給が同時に拡大してマネーサプライは高いところで釣り合いがとれるようになる。

ただし、これは要するに財政赤字をお札を刷って埋め合わせてしまいましょうという、国家財政としては非常に無責任なやり方だ。第1次大戦後のドイツが巨額の賠償金を支払うためにこの方法を用い、すさまじいハイパーインフレを引き起こしている(パンの価格が1年で250マルクから3990億マルクになったらしい)。そのために政府や日銀の関係者の中ではこのやり方に対して拒否反応を示す人が多いようだ。

国債の買いオペだけではなんの効果も無いというこの話、論点が多いので次回に続く。

本日のまとめ

ゼロ金利では、日銀が国債をいくら買ってもマネーサプライを増やせない(よってインフレにならない)。
財政支出を増やして赤字分だけ日銀がお札を刷るマネタイゼーションは確実に効果があるが、財政規律の点から嫌がられている。

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Comments

量的緩和論者ではないのですが、、、
バーナンキの背理法についても知らないのですが、文中の紹介を読む限りでは、財政支出を無制限に行わなければならないという必要は無いのでは?と思いました。

(上の紹介文を読んで私が理解した)バーナンキの背理法では、「無税国家はなりたたない」と定義。そのうえで、国債をいくら買っても物価が上がらないと仮定する。

このとき、流通している国債を中央銀行が買い上げる。さらに現在の政府支出をすべて国債発行でまかない、その国債もすべて中央銀行が引き受ける。しかしこれは、無税国家が成立を意味する。矛盾。よって物価は上昇する。というロジックなのでは?

つまり、国債の量自体は、バーナンキの主張となんら関係ないと感じたのですが、、、。DQNだったらすまそ。

Posted by: 通りすがり | July 10, 2004 at 03:07 AM

コメントありがとうございます。まるで人気の無いコンテンツだと思っていましたので、読んでコメントまで下さるとは感激です。

ご指摘の点ですが、おっしゃるとおりです。よくこの「背理法」とセットで無限に国債を購入した場合~という説明が出てくるので、一応それに従っておこうということと、表現上派手で結構というだけの理由であのような表現になってしまいました。おっしゃるとおり、正確さに欠ける文章だと反省しています。(修正すべきかとも考えましたが、通りすがりさんのコメントがその役を果たしていますし、とりあえずこのままにしておきます)

更に言うなら、無税国家は既に発行された国債を購入せずとも、財政支出分をまかなえばOKのはずですので、毎年80兆円ほど日銀が国債を購入すれば無税国家は成立し得ます。

ただし、このためには大減税(というより税の撤廃)という財政政策を併用しないと無税国家になりませんよね、日銀が国債買うだけじゃダメですよね、というのが本文の趣旨です。

まあ細かい事を考えていくと、無税国家でも政府支出がゼロになってしまってはインフレにならない可能性が大ですので、確実にインフレが発生する状況を定義するためには、「無税で、財政支出が十分に大きい(or無限大)」という条件を置かなければいけなかったのかもしれません。そこまで厳密に考える必要はないんでしょうけど・・・

コメントを頂いたおかげでこちらも考えが整理できました。ありがとうございます。週末の間にインフレターゲットについて書こうと思っています。そちらもご覧頂ければうれしいです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 10, 2004 at 07:57 AM

早速レスありがとうございます。
考え直してみて、馬車馬さんの元の記述であっているのでは?と思い直しました。
ちょっと見ていただいてもよろしいでしょうか?

----

先ほどのコメントで考えていたのは、すべての政府支出を国債引受でまかなう(減税する)場合、無税国家非成立の条件から物価上昇することがいえるものの、政府支出増加の場合はどうなんだろう、ということです。

具体的には、80兆円の支出規模から180兆に、100兆円支出を増やして、それを国債引受で賄った場合、無税国家非成立の条件は使えないので、物価が上がるかどうかはいえないのでは?ということでした。

ただ、よくよく考え直してみると、政府のintertemporal budget constraint、
(政府税収の割引現在価値=政府支出の割引現在価値)
が恒等的に成り立つ必要があります。

国債引受でファイナンスして、政府税収の割引現在価値を超える政府支出を行うことができれば、この恒等式がviolateされ、無税国家(将来までの税収以上の支出が可能)が成立することとなります。

これはありえない。なので国債引受によるファイナンスをしようとすると、物価が上昇し、実質でみて上記のintertemporal budget constraint が常にholdするということでしょうか。というか、これってFTPLですかね。

ちなみに、
>更に言うなら、無税国家は既に発行された国債を購入せずとも、財政支出分をまかなえばOK(以下略)

ですが、既発債もいずれかのタイミングで、税収で償還しなければならないので(non ponzi game condition)、完全な無税国家が成立するためには、やはり引き受けておかないとだめなのではないでしょうか。

なんか、お騒がせしてしまい、恐縮です。

久しぶりに読み応えのあるサイトで、楽しみにしております。インフレーションターゲットの記事も、楽しみにさせていただいています。

Posted by: 通りすがり | July 10, 2004 at 10:10 AM

あ、やっぱりdynamicでもいけるんですね。本文書くときにちょっと引っかかったものの、「まぁどうせstaticでないと説明ややこしすぎるからいいや」と放り投げてしまってまして(お恥ずかしい)。

ちょっと外出しないといけないので、明日ちゃんと読んでお返事します。もうこちらがご指導いただく立場ですが(笑)。

NPGについては、確か政府は毎年償還額の一定割合を借換債ではなく一般歳出から支払わねばならない(財政規律のレベルでponsi-gameを防止するための制度だったと思います。まぁ、現状全く機能してはいませんが)ので、既発債は多分放っておいてもいつか無くなるのではないでしょうか。でもこれは制度上の問題なので、本質的には通りすがりさんのおっしゃるとおり既発債も何とかすべきなのでしょうね。ああ、時間が。では!

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 10, 2004 at 11:59 AM

>もうこちらがご指導いただく立場ですが(笑)。
滅相もありません。大変勉強させていただいております。
むしろ長々とアホ晒してしまい、凹み気味です。

後段部分は、既発債を償還しないとモデルが閉じないのでは?と思ったのですが、80兆円の中に、償還費と利払い費が含まれているということですね。というか無知ですみません。当方、うま年生まれの鹿座なものでして、、。

理解できました(と思います)ので、失礼させていただきます。お付き合いいただいて、ありがとうございました。

Posted by: 通りすがり | July 11, 2004 at 04:50 AM

ごめんなさい、コメントを書くのが遅れました。インフレターゲットを書いていて燃え尽きたというか、予想以上に時間がかかったせいもあって他の仕事がちょっと厳しくなってきておりまして。FTPLとかも考えると面白そうなんですが、とりあえず週末までは持ち越しになりそうです。とっとと金融政策ネタもまとめてしまいたいんですが・・

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 13, 2004 at 09:08 PM

よく考えてみると、新発債の吸収だけでponzi-gameを作るには、日銀が今後永遠に新発債を購入し続けることにコミットしなければならないので、かなりハードルが高いですね。コミットメントの問題が少しでも発生するのであれば、通りすがりさんのおっしゃるとおり最初に既発債を全額吸収しないとダメかもしれません。

FTPLはちゃんと勉強したことがなく、昔さわりを聞いたときに「どこまで今までの議論と違うのか分かりづらいな」と思っただけだったのですが、もしかしたらFTPLとフリードマン以来の議論が一番食い違ってくるのはゼロ金利のときなのかもしれませんね。暇が出来たら少し調べてみたいものです。

>ません。当方、うま年生まれの鹿座なものでして、、。

いえいえ、私も「午年ってことは何歳だ?」としばらくマジメに考えていたくらいですので・・・
色々と勉強させていただきました。ありがとうございます。今後ともどうぞよろしくお願いします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 22, 2004 at 07:13 AM

パンの価格が1年で250マルクから3990億マルクになった
のリンク先をまともに読んでしまったのですが、眉唾な感じがします。当方、物理系の人間なので、怪しいとは思いつつも、どこがおかしいか分からなかったのですが、少なくともスカラー波はおかしいだろうと、思ったのですが、ドイツのハイパーインフレに関して、このリンク先を選んだのには何か理由があるんでしょうか?

Posted by: ヲ | September 07, 2007 at 09:25 PM

ヲさん、コメントありがとうございます。

・・・ほんとですね。パンの価格という分かりやすい例が載っていた例が他に見当たらなかったのでよく読まずにそこにリンクしたのだと思いますが(よく覚えていないのですが)。景気循環でなんたら波動を使う(クズネッツ波やらなにやら)というのは昔経済学でも流行ったやり方なので、それの一種かと思って見逃したのかもしれませんが、テスラ波まで出てくるとさすがに怪しすぎます(景気循環についても、何とか波動を使う考え方は「いい加減すぎる」「理論的根拠が無い」ということで棄却され、今はまともな経済学者は誰も使いません)。

リンクは削ってしまったほうがいいかもしれませんね・・・。ご指摘ありがとうございます。ちょっと今極めて貧弱なネット環境におりますので、高速回線に復帰したら修正しようと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 08, 2007 at 07:44 PM

お忙しい中、反応していただいて、ありがとうございます。
最も最近の記事まで読ませていただきましたが、読み応えが(特に経済系の記事で)非常にあり楽しかったです。コメント欄でなんだか高度なやり取りをされてるのを見て、どうでもいいコメントしたなぁと恥ずかしくなってたところでした。

理学系出身なものでmicro-foundedな考え方には共感します。でも、自然科学でも工学系の方々は気にしないんですよね。それでも折り合いがついていってるのは、実験が可能なことや非平衡状態が短いと仮定できることが多いことに起因しているでしょうが、経済は非平衡な部分のインパクトが大きそうで、取り扱いが難しそうですね。
次の記事も期待しています。

ところで、また、馬鹿丸出しの質問かと思いますが、あるときと突然、ハイパーインフレが発生する危険と言うのは、気にしなくていいのでしょうか?
政府が勝手にデフォルトしたりすれば別でしょうが、常識的な範囲で財政支出を増やして国債を日銀が買う程度では、極端なインフレになる前に指標が動き出して日銀や政府が対応できると期待できるのでしょうか?ちょっと不安に思ったもので...。

Posted by: ヲ | October 12, 2007 at 09:53 PM

ヲさん、コメントありがとうございます。いえいえ、頂くコメントは高度かもしれませんが、私のリプライはいい加減ですので。

確かに、理学系と工学系って極端に違いますね。経済学にも理学系(micro-founded)なものと工学系(主に大学1-2年生で習う入門経済学)があり、後者ではあまり厳密に公理から積み上げていくという作業は余りありません。そして、今現在世の中を考えるのに『使える』のは後者であるケースも結構あります。

経済学(特にマクロ)は複雑になると均衡の近傍の性質しか考えない(要するに、均衡での微分しか見ない)傾向があるので、扱いの難しさはご指摘の通りです。

厳密には、我々にはいつでもハイパーインフレの危険性があります。我々が紙幣を使っているのは周りの人もその紙幣を受け取ってくれるという確信があるからであり、その紙幣それ自体に価値があるからではありません。周りの人が紙幣を受け取らないと皆が信じたその瞬間に紙幣の価値はゼロへと収束していき、物価は逆に無限大へ向かって発散していきます。ただし、皆が同時に態度を変えないといけないので(一人だけが価値が無い、と信じても、周りの人が信じなければ彼はすぐに態度を改めるので。そうでないと大損です)。

一般的には、紙幣は政府の債務ですから、ちょっとやそっと財政拡大をしても政府の債務の価値が無くなる(デフォルト)は起こらないと考えてよいと思います(ただし、デフォルトの恐れありと思われると一気にアンコントローラブルになります)。それ以外の場合は、結局皆所得以上に支払うことは出来ませんから、物価の上昇がきわめて大きくなるケースは短期間には中々考えにくいかな、と思います。対応する時間さえあれば、貨幣の供給を思いっきり絞る(金利を上げるのと同義)でインフレは退治可能ですから。

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'Are people really searching online for my product or services'. Two: Research different services - Assuming that you are going to hire someone to do it for you, the next step is to research as many different services as possible. While effective SEO needn't be difficult, it does take work. Tests with a model like Page - Rank have shown that the system is not infallible.

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Nowadays, the conditions for your website to be ranked high in the search engine results are based on the search engine optimization techniques that you decide to use. Any business to conduct business on the web should have a web site created especially for creating an awareness of their products and ser-vices to the planet at large. Thematic relevance is of key importance for the creation of quality backlinks. Tests with a model like Page - Rank have shown that the system is not infallible.

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Get testimonials from the clients you already worked with, about your work and experiences. The trends in this industry change and new developments take place only when Google comes up with some novel feature that ends up breaking every site's SEO and compels them to consider a change in their current content presentation in order to do well. Unlike TV, radio and other traditional marketing channels that need big budgets to be effective, SEO can be cost effective. A guy named Alan Emtage, a student at the University of Mc - Gill, developed the first search engine for the Internet in 1990.

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