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金融政策論議の不思議(5)  国債を買い続けるだけでは無意味な理由

日銀が国債を買えばデフレは解決するという考え方は量的緩和派の議論の大黒柱のようなものだと思うので、前回に引き続きもう少し考えてみよう。

国債を買っても絶対に、少しも、マネーサプライは増えないのか?

国債を買うだけでマネーサプライが増えるかどうかという議論は、前提条件の設定が錯綜しているせいでどうもごちゃごちゃしやすい。一番難しいのは長期国債の買いオペ効果をどう考えるかだ。前回までゼロ金利ゼロ金利と言ってきたが、10年国債の金利がゼロになったわけではない。今は2%弱になっているが、低いときでも0.5%はあった。だから、日銀が長期国債を買えば金利は下がり、資金需要は増えるのでマネーサプライは増やせる。効果はあるわけだ。

ただし、高々0.5%金利が下がっただけで増える資金需要など高が知れているし、日銀が長期国債を買い続ければすぐに長期金利もゼロになるわけで、結局問題は何も解決していない。一時的な効果しか見込めない政策はこの際ほとんど意味が無い。目先数ヶ月景気が良くなったところで、半年後には打ち止めで改めて不景気になると分かっていたら、誰もインフレ率が上がっていくなどと期待しないし、消費や投資も行わない。
効果が期待できなくてもやらないよりはやった方がいい、という悲壮感あふれる意見はありだとは思うのだが、議論としてはそれ以上発展のしようがないのでここでは考えないことにしよう。

日銀が国債を買うことこそ重要という意見の一例

それでも国債を買うだけで万事解決すると考えていらっしゃる方のために、もう1件ネタを提供しよう。以下は黒木玄氏の掲示板から拾ってきたものだ。

この政策【引用者註:インフレ目標が安定的に達成されるまで日銀が無制限に長期国債を購入するという政策】では、銀行が発行市場や流通市場から長期国債を購入し、その国債を日銀が購入するということが大規模に繰り返される。銀行が市中から長期国債を買うときには購入先の預金口座に長期国債代金を入金する。それにより預金 (通貨) が市中に供給される。銀行貸し出しが増えなくても通貨供給量は増えるのである。 (岩田規久男、日経新聞経済教室 2003.6.11)
<以上、黒木玄氏の掲示板から引用。引用者注は黒木氏によるもの。>

要するに、日銀が国債を銀行から買う(=買いオペ)だけでは銀行がその売却代金を死蔵してしまって市中(経済全体)にお金がまわらず、買いオペの効果がなくなってしまうという主張がある。それに対して岩田氏(学習院大学教授。日本の著名な経済学者)は、実際には銀行は日銀に売却した分の国債をまた民間企業から購入し直すので、その売却資金は最終的に民間企業に届くから問題はないと反論しているわけなんだが(詳細は下図参照)。

・・・とりあえず細かいところからいくと、民間の非金融部門はそんなに国債を持ってない。民間非金融法人企業の国債・財融債保有額は2004年第1四半期で6000億円足らず。家計が14兆円強(ちなみに、金融機関の合計保有額は485兆円)。

一方で日銀の買い切りオペが年額9.6兆円(多分)。現状のオペ規模ですら2年も持たないのだ。「無制限に」日銀が国債を買ったら15兆円なんてあっという間になくなってしまう。繰り返すが、一時的な効果しか見込めない政策では物価水準を上げられても期待インフレ率を(安定的に)上げる事はできない。

マネーとは何か

さて、わざわざ引用文を引っ張ってきたのは別に上のようなみみっちいつっこみをするためではない(読んだ瞬間に頭をよぎったツッコミだったので、書かずにはいられなかったのだが)。この岩田氏のコメントは、そもそもマネーとは何かを考えるのにちょうどいい材料なのだ。

前回、マネーと貨幣は似たようなものだと書いた。実はこれはあまり正確な説明ではない。マネーとは、我々があらゆる取引を行うときに用いる支払手段のことだ。普通は紙幣か硬貨で支払うのだが、最近はクレジットカードやデビットカードで支払う人も多いだろう。この場合、我々は貨幣ではなく、自分の普通預金から直接支払っていることになる。だから通常普通預金もマネーの一部とされている。

普通預金がマネーなら、定期預金はどうだろう。日銀によると、定期預金は解約すれば現金又は普通預金になるので、マネーとほぼ同様に考えてよいのだそうだ。普通、統計でいうところのマネーサプライとは、以上の現金、普通預金、定期預金(とその他いくつかの金融商品)の合計のことだ。特にM2+CDと名付けられている。

ところで、マネーサプライにはM2+CDの他にもいくつかのカテゴリーがある。中でも有力なのが広義流動性。M2+CDに、郵便貯金や国債、投資信託などを加えたものだ。これらは定期預金ほどにはマネーに近くないので、「広義」のマネーサプライとされている。

実は、上の岩田氏のコメントは、マネーサプライの定義に広義流動性を使った瞬間根本的に間違いになる。なぜなら、広義流動性には国債が既に含まれているから、銀行が国債を売って現金で支払っても、内訳が代わるだけで総額は変化しないのだ(マネーサプライは非金融機関が持つマネーの総額なので、日銀と銀行の持つ国債や現金はマネーサプライ統計にはカウントされない)。

BOJoperation-chart.gif

国債はマネーなのか

では、マネーサプライの定義には広義流動性を使うべきなのだろうか。それとも、岩田氏が言うとおりM2+CDを使うべきなのだろうか。もっと限定すれば、国債をマネーサプライに入れるべきなのだろうか。

マネーサプライ統計は実は随分古い統計で、1955年に作られている。少なくともこの当時、国債をマネーサプライに入れるなど考えられないことだった。国債取引にはかなり厳しい制限が課せられていたからだ。国債取引についての規制があらかた撤廃されたのは比較的最近(1985年前後)のことだから、それ以前は国債は気軽に売却して現金又は普通預金に出来るような金融商品ではなかったのだ。

しかし、この20年で国債を取り巻く状況は様変わりしている。国債は郵便局でもどこでも気軽に売買できるものになった。それに考えてみて欲しい。国債と現金の発行者は同じ政府なのだ。実は、現金と国債には驚くほど差が無い。違いはたったふたつだけ。国債には金利がつくことと、1円・5円・10円・・・と取引するのに便利な小額の国債証券が存在しないこと。いまや、国債は定期預金以上に現金に近い存在になりつつあるのだ。

そう考えると、そもそも国債の買いオペレーション自体が実は結構むなしい作業なのだ。現金と、現金にかなり近い国債とをとりかえっこしたところで、経済に与える影響はほとんどない。

本日のまとめ

国債と現金にはほとんど違いが無い。だから買いオペによって国債と現金を交換しても、経済に与える影響は小さい。

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Comments

>そもそも国債の買いオペレーション自体が実は結構むなしい作業なのだ。現金と、現金にかなり近い国債とをとりかえっこしたところで、経済に与える影響はほとんどない。

まさに其の通り!

中央銀行が市中銀行にカネを落としたとしても、それから先銀行が貸付を行わなければ市中にはカネが落ちません。また銀行が政府の金融緩和という目的で企業に貸付を行ったとしても、企業が運転資金という名目で貸付を受け、其の資金を金利の高い以前の借金の返済にあてたのでは市中にカネは回りません、むしろ政府が通貨発行益という形で市中から商品を購入すれば、市中にカネが回り始めます。
このことがある意味公共投資ですが、現在行われている公共投資では市中にある商品がさばけませんので何の効果も出てきません。それよりか日常の生活すらままならない人達に無利息に近い形で貸付を行えば其の人達は市中で買い物をし、市中にカネが行き渡り、貸付を受けなければならなかった人達も、やがて職にありつき返済も出来ることになるのですが。ただし其の人達が消費者金融に返済したのでは市中にカネは落ちないことになります。

Posted by: 楢篠賢司 | February 26, 2006 at 05:42 PM

楢篠賢司さん、コメントありがとうございます。

実は、この議論は銀行が十全に機能してもなお成立するものであったりします。(インフレ・ターゲット(2)のコメント欄 http://workhorse.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2006/02/2_fe00.html#c6611728 で詳述しましたのでよろしければそちらもどうぞ)。

財政政策etcを併用すれば効果があることはご指摘の通りです。ただ、公共投資と「日常生活に支障のある人たちへの貸し付け」との効果の比較はなかなか難しいものがあると思います(政策の意味合いが大きく異なるのと、その他のパラメーターに依存する部分が大きすぎるため)。ただ、経済に十分な規模の資金をばらまくためには後者の政策では規模的に不足で、最終的には公共投資にも手をつけざるを得ないような気もします。その時に「より効果的な政府支出etc」が存在するかは重要な論点だと思いますが、私にはあまりアイデアがありません。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 28, 2006 at 02:47 AM

あるページにて一連の記事についての紹介を受け順番に読んでいる者です。付け焼き刃の知識ですが、このエントリーに関して少し疑問を持ったのですが、質問させて下さい。

(1)結論から、国債はマネーとほぼ同等である、ということですが、例えば日銀が市場から(銀行から)国債を買い上げますと、売り手側の銀行としては取引に応じたわけですから、それよりも運用効率の高いと判断する何らかの手段があるから取引に応じたということで、それは貸付や株式であり、国債がマイナス金利になっていない限り、得た現金を眠らせる=運用しないということは無いのではないでしょうか。

(2)現金とほぼ同等の国債という点について、流動性がある程度確保されているのは理解出来ますが、例えば企業への貸付の際に、「現金じゃなくて国債貸付でよいですか」ということは考えられない。また、(既に自己資本以上のレバレッジがかかっている)運用国債残高は担保に出来ないので更に日銀や短期金融市場から現金を引っ張り出し、それを貸付に回すということもない。円を希薄化させて名目価格を上げるという点では国債が幾ら資産的に日銀券と同等であっても日銀券たりえないのではないでしょうか?

以上、銀行の保有国債は減らすほうが効果があるのではないかという面から、疑問に思ったことをまとめてみました。恐れ入りますが、間違っているようでしたらご教示願います。勉強不足でしたら申し訳ございません。

Posted by: ゆうたん | November 29, 2009 at 06:26 PM

考え直したのですが、長期国債を売ったからといって短期のゼロ金利は変わりないので、売り手の銀行としても短期間は現金で「運用」するということでしょうか。
ということで、日銀が短期でインフレ率のコントロールすることにはなっていない、という理解で宜しいでしょうか。

Posted by: ゆうたん | November 29, 2009 at 09:20 PM

ゆうたんさん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが遅れて申し訳ありません。

(1)についてですが、大枠としてその理解で正しいのだと思います。通常の金融政策では、国債の買いオペを大量に打つことによって債券価格を上昇させ(=金利低下=利益率低下)、それ以外の資産の相対利益率を上昇させることで、各銀行のポートフォリオを低リスク資産から高リスク資産へとシフトさせます。このとき、ゆうたんさんのおっしゃるとおり、「国債を売ったんだからより高収益の資産の当てがあるはずであり、現金のまま腐らせておくはずがない」ということになります。

ですが、ここで議論しているのは金利がほぼゼロになっている特殊な状況です。満期の違いを考えずに議論すると、国債と現金とが実質的に等価になっているわけですから、銀行サイドは買いオペに参加してもいいですし、しなくても構いません。このような状況で買いオペに参加して現金保有額が増えたとしても、上で書いたようなメカニズムは機能しませんので、いわゆる「ポートフォリオ・リバランス」は成立しないわけです。

長期金利は将来の短期金利の期待値+流動性プレミアムで決まります。とりあえず流動性プレミアムは固定とし、現在の買いオペ額と将来の金融政策に直接の相関がないとすると(ごく一般的な仮定です)、長期金利も一度流動性の罠にはまってしまえば同じ理屈になります。

通常の貸し付けで国債の貸し付けを行わないのは、単に二度手間を避けるためです。国債が現金とほぼ等価と言えるのは、国債を担保にすれば(ほぼ)その国債の時価と同額の現金を借り入れ可能だからです。2007年の金融危機後も、レポ市場の国債のヘアカットはせいぜい2パーセントかそこいらですよね。若干おおざっぱに言えば、国債は現金の98パーセントと等価なわけです。ただし、非金融法人への貸し付けで国債を貸しても、結局その国債は担保で戻ってくるので無意味です。ですから、通常非金融法人への貸し付けでは国債を貸し付けません。一方で、中銀の銀行への貸し付けでは国債などの貸し付けは一般的です(これにはSCレポとか、別の事情もありますが)。

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