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金融政策論議の不思議(6) 不良債権処理策は本当に下策なのか

さて、今回は少し方向性を変えて、政府の行った銀行再建政策をどう評価するか考えてみたい。

この銀行再建策というのは賛否両論色々あるので、まず両論を整理するところからはじめてみよう。

不良債権処理賛成派の意見

金融政策がらみの論点で言えば、銀行改革が必要だという人の論点は大体以下の二つに絞られる。

1. 銀行が不良債権漬けになっていると貸出が伸びない。

2. 貸出が伸びないと金融政策が機能しなくなる。

まず1点目。普通、銀行は貸出先が倒産したり利子すら払えないくらいに追い詰められたりすると、そこからの貸付金の回収はあきらめる。大体、利子も払えなくなったような企業は遠からず高利貸しとかに手を出して話をややこしくしてくれるので、その前にとっとと倒産させて息の根を止め、残った資産を叩き売って、それでも回収しきれなかった貸付金は損失として計上するのが金貸しの基本だ。魚も企業も新鮮なうちにシメなければ味が落ちるのだ。

で、計上された損失は銀行の自己資本を一部切り崩して埋め合わせる。ただ、問題なのはこういうケースが同時多発して、自己資本を全額きり崩しても計上された損失をカバーしきれなくなる場合だ。自己資本がゼロになったら言うまでも無く倒産だ。貸先の企業はもうダメなのでさっさと潰したいのだが、潰すと自分まで潰れてしまう。これではいかん、というわけで銀行は延命策を図る。ダメ企業の元利払いを延期してやったり、利払いのための資金をまた貸し付けたりするわけだ。

ただ、これをやっていると新規の貸出は難しくなる。銀行が貸し出せる総額には預金や各種規制で上限があるというのに、その枠を利益が出ないと分かっている企業に使ってしまっているのだから(これが不良債権そのもの)。そのせいで心機一転有望な投資先を探すことも出来なくなってしまうので、銀行の利益も当然のことながらジリ貧になる。

2点目。銀行貸出が滞ると金融政策が機能しなくなるのは、日銀はあらゆる金融政策を銀行経由で間接的に行うからだ。以下の図で直観的に理解していただけると思うが、日銀は「銀行の銀行」なので、経済全体に資金を供給したいときには、まず銀行に供給する(国債を買って代金を支払う方法で。いわゆる買いオペ)。そして、新たに資金を得た銀行がその資金を企業などに貸し付けることで、日銀の資金は経済全体に行き渡るわけだ。

operation-bklend-chart.gif

そんなわけで、もし仲介役の銀行が機能不全に陥ってしまうと、日銀は資金を供給する手段を失ってしまう。だから、終わりなき不景気から脱出するためには、何はさておき銀行の不良債権を何とかせよという議論になる。

クルーグマン教授の反論

クルーグマン教授はこれら意見に対して様々な角度から反論している。全て取り上げていくときりが無いので、この論文で大きく紙面を割いている以下の反論にフォーカスして考えることにしよう。

「銀行の財務体質が健全だったとしても、ゼロ金利であればベースマネーとマネーサプライの断絶(要するに、上の図のバツ印のこと)は起こりうる。よって金融政策が機能不全をきたしているのは銀行がボトルネックになっているからだという意見は誤り。」

これに付け加えると、

不良債権処理(借手企業の清算など)それ自体が不景気を加速して、なんとか健全に経営できていた企業も不良債権化する。結局不良債権処理はいつまでも終わらないいたちごっこになってしまう。

という反論が有力だろうか。

前提条件次第で結論が変わるクルーグマン教授の主張

さて、ではまずクルーグマン教授の反論を検証してみよう。

クルーグマン教授は、ダイヤモンドとディビッグという学者が作った銀行モデルを前提にして、ゼロ金利の下では銀行が正常に機能していてもやっぱり金融政策の機能不全が発生する事を示している。だから金融政策の問題(マネーサプライが増やせないこと)の原因が銀行の不良債権にあるわけではないというわけだ(この論文の16~19ページ)。

ただし、このダイヤモンドとディビッグのモデル(以下、DDモデル)は銀行の預金サービスのみに着目したものだ。DDモデルでは、銀行は預金を受け入れて、要求があったときにそれを支払うだけの存在だ。でも銀行の役割ってそれだけなのだろうか?DDモデルでは、企業のバランスシートをチェックしたり、場合によっては経営陣に人材を送り込んだりする企業金融の要素は完全に無視されているのだ(別にDDモデルの批判をしているわけではない。着眼点の違い)。

もし、DDモデルの代わりに銀行がもっと力を持っていると仮定したモデルを使ったらどうなるだろう。例えば、ホルムストロムとティロルという学者が作ったモデル(Holmstrom and Tirole(1997):銀行は借り手の経営に介入すると仮定したモデル)を前提にすると、実はまるで違う結論になる。銀行が機能していない場合、たとえ日銀が銀行以外の投資家(個人投資家など)に直接資金を供給できたとしても、投資家は一切の投資を行わなくなる。間接金融も直接金融も消滅するのだ。これは金利がゼロであろうとなかろうと関係ない。

つまり、クルーグマン教授の指摘は銀行の役割をどう仮定するかに強く依存している。もし我々が銀行に預金以外の役割を求めているのだとすれば、クルーグマン教授の反論は無効になる可能性があるのだ。

クルーグマン教授の反論それ自体はどれだけ正しいのか?

正直に書くと、筆者はクルーグマン教授のDDモデルを使った反論それ自体に若干の疑問がある。DDモデルで預金金利がゼロになるのは、詳細は省くが(コメント欄参照)、その経済にとって銀行の存在価値がなくなったときだけだ。

つまり、クルーグマン教授は「金融政策がうまくいっていないのは銀行のせいではなくゼロ金利のせいだ。銀行は完全に健康でも同じ問題が生じる」と主張するために、ゼロ金利になると銀行は機能しなくなる(あってもなくても関係なくなる)モデルを使っているのだ。これはロジックとしては美しくない、というよりおかしくないだろうか(この辺り、勘違いがあればぜひご教授いただきたい)。こういうことを書くと怒られそうで怖いのだが。


不良債権処理は新たな不良債権を生むのか

さて、2点目の反論である、不良債権処理を進めると更に不景気になり、経営に行き詰まる企業がますます増えるので、不良債権処理は新たな不良債権を生み出すだけで意味が無い、という意見について。

正直、筆者はこの意見に対してはっきりとした反論は出来ない。程度の問題はあれ、ダメ企業を再建・清算するにあたって経済にそれなりの負担がかかることは間違いないだろう。そのせいでまた不良債権が増えてしまう可能性もあると筆者も考える。

ただし、これはあくまでも結果論に過ぎないが、過去数年間の不良債権処理を見る限り、「不良債権処理によって不景気が進行してさらに不良債権が増える」という最悪の事態は起きずに済んでいるようだ。そこで、とりあえず以下では「不良債権処理は景気を悪化させるが、それで更に不良債権が増えてしまうようないたちごっこは起こらない」と仮定して話を進めよう。

筆者が考える「それでも不良債権処理を進めるべき理由」は以下のようなものだ。

1点目。不良債権を処理しないまま放置するとダメ企業は大概ひとりで不良債権を増やしていく(例えば、ヤクザがらみに手を出して銀行の担保物権を占有されるとか。そうすれば回収可能金額はどんどん減ってゆく)。繰り返すが、ミクロなレベルでは不良債権処理は早いに越した事はない。

2点目。ここではクルーグマン教授とは違ってダメ銀行は金融政策にとってボトルネックになっているという立場を取っているので、若干のコストを考慮しても銀行再建をする価値はあるという結論になる。

例えば、上で書いたホルムストロムとティロルのモデルに従うなら、銀行が機能不全である限り企業は一切の資金調達手段を絶たれてしまう(企業は銀行による適切な経営管理を受けないとすぐに背任行為に走ると仮定されているので、それを予測した投資家は銀行が手を出すまでその企業にお金を貸せない)。これでは、「不良債権処理は景気が回復してから」と言ってもそんな時期は永久に来ないことになってしまう。

もちろん、このモデルはひとつの極論であって、このモデルで全てを語るつもりは毛頭ない。しかし、銀行にそのような機能も確実にあることを考えると、現時点、又は数年前の時点で不良債権問題を当面の間放置する、という政策はそれなりのリスクを伴うものであることもお分かりいただけるのではないかと思う。

後は、クルーグマン教授も書いている通り、やるならばさっさとやってさっさと終わらせるに限る。ここ数年の政府の不良債権処理が迅速に行われたのかどうかは議論の分かれるところだろう。筆者は現実問題としては政府はそこそこのペースで処理できているとは思うのだが、これをお読みの皆さんにそれを納得していただけるだけの材料は正直持っていないので、判断は読者の皆さんにゆだねたい。

本日のまとめ

銀行の不良債権問題が金融政策の効果を阻害している可能性はやっぱり高い。
不良債権処理はコストもかかるが、得るものも大きい。
不良債権処理は早ければ早いほど良い。

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Comments

ちょっと今回はテクニカルになりすぎました。経済学に特に興味のない方は「前提条件次第で結論が変わるクルーグマン教授の主張」の手前まで読んでいただければもう十分すぎると思います。最後まで我慢して読んでいただいた方、ありがとうございます。
-------------------------------------------------
脚注の書き方が分からないのでコメント欄を代用します。

Diamond and Dybvigのモデルでは、ゼロ金利になるのは銀行が機能していないときだけだと考える理由は以下の通りです。

DDモデルでは預金金利は内生的に決まります。この金利がゼロになるのは、経済に唯一存在する投資機会の収益率がゼロのときだけで、このとき割引率δも1になるはずです。

このとき、3期間生きる長生きタイプのプレーヤーの所得は(第2期の所得,第3期の所得)で(0,1)、2期間で死ぬ早死にプレーヤーの所得は(1,0)となるはずです。(厳密には、長生きタイプは0から1までどんな所得配分でも構わないのでしょうが)

これは明らかにパレート最適を実現していますから、銀行が存在してもこれ以上状況を改善する事は出来ません。よって、この状況では銀行は存在しないか、存在しても全く機能していません。こういう状況を仮定して「銀行が健全でも…」という主張にはどうも違和感があるのですが・・・

もし間違っていたらぜひご教授くださいませ。速攻で上の文に赤線引いて修正します。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 06, 2004 at 10:13 AM

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