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金融政策論議の不思議(7) インフレターゲットは有害無益

最近の金融緩和策でやたらと頻繁に聞かれたのがインフレターゲットだ。例えば、黒木氏のホームページから拾ってきた岩田規久男学習院大学教授のコメントを読むと、「デフレ脱却のためにはまずインフレターゲットを設定」し、そうすれば「1年以内に十分インフレになる」のだそうだ。過去6回の記事でえんえんとゼロ金利下でインフレにするのがいかに難しいかを書いてきた身には、インフレターゲットは不可能を可能にする魔法か手品かのように思えてしまう。

こういう意見がマスメディア他で人気になった理由はよーく分かる。「国債の買い切りオペを増額」とかいったどうしてもテクニカルな匂いの抜けない政策に比べて、「政府が罰則付きで日銀に『ここまでインフレにせよ!』と命令すれば、日銀は死に物狂いでインフレにするようになるのでオッケー」と解釈できるインフレターゲットは圧倒的に分かりやすいのだ。しかも上で岩田氏が書いているように、効果も絶大とあってはなおさらだ。

でも、世の中にそんなうまい話があるんだろうか?議論の分かりやすいところだけをつまみ食いして都合のいい結論を導いていたりしないだろうか?そのあたりを考えるため、今回は(次回はまとめになる予定なので、事実上今回が最終回)インフレターゲットの議論を少し丁寧に説明しながら、インフレターゲットが本当はどれだけ役に立つものなのか考えてみることにしよう。

インフレターゲットは期待を動かす

ところで、この魔法のような金融政策・インフレターゲットというのはどういうものかごく簡単に説明しておこう。まず政府が目標となるインフレ率のレンジを決定する(例えば1~3%の間に収まるようにしろ、とか)。で、中央銀行は金融政策を駆使してインフレ率がこのレンジから外れないように努力する。失敗すると、ニュージーランドのように総裁がクビになったりもする。

ターゲットがないと、民間部門は日銀がどのくらいのインフレ率がいいと思っているのか分からない。「もしかしたらもっとインフレ率を高くするつもりかも」と疑って、「なら値段が上がる前に買い占めちまえ」とがんがん購入し、その結果実際にインフレになってしまう可能性がある。インフレ期待が実際のインフレを生んでしまうわけだ。インフレターゲットを設定することで、こういう疑心暗鬼を防ぐことが出来る。

もちろん、今はデフレなので、「実は日銀はデフレでいいと思ってんじゃないの?」と疑って、「じゃあ値下がりするまで待とう」となって消費が冷え込み、実際にデフレになりました、というのを防止するため、ということになる。

つまり、インフレターゲットとは期待インフレ率をコントロールするためにある政策なわけだ。


期待という名の手品:タネがないとできません

期待インフレ率をコントロールできれば、経済のかなりの部分をコントロールできる。前にも書いたが、経済活動に影響を与えるのは過去のインフレ率じゃあない。これからの(予想)インフレ率なのだ。上で書いた通り、期待インフレ率が上がれば消費も投資も増える。逆もまた然りだ。

だから、もし人々の期待を直接コントロールできるなら、政府はどんな経済政策だって可能だし、企業はいくらだって売上を増やすことが出来るわけだ。ただし、人間様は馬鹿ではないから、まじめに考えてありえないと思うような事を予想することはない。これを経済学では合理的期待形成の仮定と呼ぶ。要するに人々はちゃんと筋道だてて予想を立てると考えよう、というわけだ。

さて、じゃあインフレターゲットの議論では、なぜ目標インフレ率を設定するだけで期待インフレ率を誘導することが出来るんだろうか。それは、もともとのインフレターゲットの議論では中央銀行はインフレ率を完璧にコントロールできる事を仮定しているからだ。日銀が今現在のインフレ率のコントロールに四苦八苦している状況など、はなから眼中に無いのだ。

つまり、インフレターゲット論者は「日銀はいつでもインフレにすることが出来るのに、それを怠っている」、と考えていることになる。そういう意見に対しては金融政策論議の不思議(4)(5)でさんざん反論したので、もうここでは繰り返さない。簡単にまとめると、財政政策と為替政策は効果がありそうだけど、国債買うだけじゃ効果が無いよ、と書いたわけだ。

1つ確認しておきたいのだが、クルーグマン教授にしても、インフレターゲットの大家スヴェンソン教授にしても、日銀が国債買いまくればインフレになるなんて書いてない(はず)。クルーグマン教授は財政政策の必要性を否定していない(財政拡大した分日銀が国債を買うマネタイゼーション肯定派だったと思うのだが)し、スヴェンソン教授は円安な水準で固定為替相場制を敷いた上でインフレターゲットを実行しろ、と言っている。

大家スヴェンソン教授は「中央銀行はターゲットを決める自由を奪われるが、ターゲットを達成するための手段を自由に決める権利を持つ」と彼の代表的な論文の中で仮定している(Svensson(1997))。日銀がターゲットを達成するための手段として何を持っているというのだろう?財政政策は政府(と財務省)の担当だし、為替政策は財務省の所管だ。日銀は固定相場制導入どころか、為替介入すら自分で決める事は出来ないではないか。

今の日本のインフレターゲット論議は、日銀の両手をぐるぐると縛り上げて壇上に立たせ、「明日から彼が物価を上昇させます。だからみんなも物価が上がるよう予想するように」と宣言しているようなものだ。そんな無力な日銀を目の当たりにして、でも彼は将来のインフレ率は変えることが出来るんですと言われても、はいそうですかと信じる方がどうかしている。根拠もなしに信じていいのは宗教ぐらいのものだ。

本気でインフレターゲットを導入する気があるなら、日銀に財政政策か為替政策(固定相場制導入の決定権を含む)を移管してからやってもらいたい。そうでなければ、今のインフレターゲットは不景気の責任を日銀になすりつけるだけの政策になってしまう。

本当のインフレターゲットの理屈

さて、おそらく読者の皆さんの中には金融政策論議の不思議(4)(5)に同意されず、「でも日銀が国債を買うだけでインフレになるんだ」と考え続けている方もいらっしゃるだろう。そこで、百歩譲って、日銀がインフレ率を完全にコントロールできると仮定してみよう。実は、日銀がインフレ率をコントロールできたとしても、デフレ脱却のためにインフレターゲットを行う必要は無いのだ。

そのために、まずインフレターゲットの議論を少し丁寧に説明しよう(興味のない方はこの項目は飛ばしていただきたい)。

細かい説明は省くが、期待インフレ率よりも実際のインフレ率の方が高くなると、イロイロなことが起こって景気が良くなり、失業が減る。そこで、政府・中央銀行は人々の期待インフレ率より少し高いインフレ率を設定することで失業を減らすことが出来てしまう(=政府は支持率を稼げる)。

ところが、人々は政府・中銀がそうすることも合理的に予想できるので、期待インフレ率をその分上げる。すると政府はそれより高いインフレ率を設定し・・・といういたちごっこの果てに、失業率も減らせないまま期待インフレ率が本来あるべきレートより随分高くなってしまう、ということが起こる。これをインフレバイアスと呼んでいる。

インフレターゲットはこのようなインフレバイアスの解決のために編み出された政策だ。政府・中銀が期待インフレ率を見てからインフレ率を決めるのと上のようなことが起こるので、期待インフレ率を観察する前にあらかじめ「インフレ率をここに決めますよ」とアナウンスしておけば、いたちごっこを避けることが出来るわけだ。

こうして見ると、インフレターゲットの議論をデフレに応用するのは結構無理がある。例え、人々が「実は日銀ってデフレを狙ってるんじゃないの?」と疑って期待インフレ率をマイナスにしたとしても、政府・日銀にはその期待インフレ率(というかデフレ率?)を下回るようなデフレを起こす必要性は全くない。だから例のいたちごっこは起こらない。「デフレバイアス」は存在しないのだ。

つまり、デフレ環境ではインフレターゲットの議論は全く意味をなさない。インフレバイアスを解消するためには具体的に「インフレ率は何%にします!」と宣言しなければならないが、バイアスがなければ「デフレは望ましくないと考えます」とか、玉虫色のコメントで全く問題ないのだ。ターゲットをどうしても設定したいのなら止めはしないが、これっぽっちの役にも立たない。

もちろん、デフレ脱却後のインフレバイアスへの対策としてなら構わない。ただし、それはデフレ脱却策とは呼ばない。

「ハイパーインフレを防ぐインフレターゲット」?

上の段落を書いていてそういえばインフレターゲットをハイパーインフレ対策と位置づける議論をあちこちで見かけたのを思い出した。これも、インフレターゲットの議論からいくと間違いだ。

インフレターゲットは日銀がインフレ率をコントロールしていることが大前提だ。そして一般の人々にとっても日銀がハイパーインフレを望んでいない事は自明だから、期待インフレ率が異常に高まることもありえない。インフレターゲットの議論はハイパーインフレが存在しない世界で成立している話なのだ。

念のために書くと、インフレバイアス(いたちごっこ)のせいでハイパーインフレになる事はない。手元の資料ではこのバイアスが何%くらいなのか書いていないのだが、常識的に言って数%ではないだろうか。インフレターゲットはそういうマイルドな、しかし過剰なインフレを解消するための手段なのだ。

今インフレターゲットを導入するのは有害無益

インフレターゲットの無益っぷりだけを今まで強調してきたが、導入の仕方しだいでは実は有害にもなりうる。どういうときに有害になるかというと、ニュージーランドのようにインフレ目標を達成できなかったときに日銀にはしかるべき罰を与える、と決める場合だ。特に、達成できなかったらクビ、という罰は一番タチが悪い。

今までも説明してきたように、日銀は現状のデフレを独力で解決する手段が無い。よって、就任直後から1年後にはクビになることが確定しているわけだ。こうなってしまうと総裁は開き直るしかなくなる。総裁室でパットゴルフにいそしむもよし、介入情報をゲットして為替の先物でこっそり一儲けしてもいい。自らの信念に基づいて金利を大幅に上げ、「この高金利で生き残った企業だけが日本を救えるのだ!」とか宣言してみてもいいかもしれない。どうせ1年後にはクビになるのだし、歴史の教科書にトンデモ総裁として名を残すのも悪くないだろう。

インフレターゲットの根本的な利点は信頼性、透明性、そして説明可能性(アカウンタビリティ)だ。それが、はなから実現不可能な目標を設定して「やらなかったらクビだ!」と宣言した瞬間、全て消え去ってしまう。中央銀行の行動パターンはインフレターゲット導入前よりも分かりづらくなってしまうのだ。

ちなみに、もし目標を達成できなかったときの罰を罰金にすれば、この問題はある程度解消できる(目標より1%外れるごとに罰金数千万円、とか)。ただし、この場合総裁のなり手がいなくなることは保証してもいい。破産中の文無しなら引き受けてくれるだろうが。

本日のまとめ

インフレターゲットはインフレ率を完全にコントロールできている中央銀行のために作られた理論。日銀はお呼びじゃない。

インフレターゲットでハイパーインフレを抑える事は出来ない。

今の状態で目標を達成できないとクビ、という制度を導入すると、むしろ導入前より状況が悪化する恐れがある。

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Comments

今更自分で思ったんですが、もしインフレ率をコントロールできてもデフレ脱出にターゲットの設定が不要だとしたら、なぜBernankeをはじめ多くの学者がターゲットの設定を主張していたんですかね?とりあえず日銀のSvenssonの論文(文中にリンク有り)を眺めてみたんですが、ターゲットを設定する意味については書いてなかったし。
少なくとも、Kydland-Prescott(1977)やSvensson(1997)の議論からは具体的なターゲットを設定する必要性は出てこないと思うんですが、何か他の理由があるんでしょうか?(そんなことを考えていたせいでまとめを書くのが遅れました)

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 23, 2004 at 03:40 AM

初めまして牟田口といいます宜しく御願いします。

経済素人なのですが
今回の郵政解散で選挙投票に向け一夜漬け勉強中の者です。

”小さい政府で財政再建不可”
”リフレ”
”インタゲ”

でネットを彷徨っておりまして
今回漸く馬車馬様のこちらのエントリで
インタゲについて納得がいきました

つまり、今の日本(日銀)ではダメで、
インタゲ政策を実現出来る環境整備がまず必要であり、
しかる後初めてインタゲ論議は意味をなす、

と言うことで宜しいのでしょうか?。

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