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金融政策論議の不思議(8) 金融政策は今機能しているのか

さて、今まで7回に渡って金融政策の方向性についてあれこれ書いてきたのだが、意識的に避けてきたネタがひとつある。それは「今現在の金融政策をどう評価すべきか?」ということだ。

話のネタにもならない現行の金融政策

現状の金融政策は量的緩和に消極的な日銀がしょうがなく出してきた妥協案という色合いが余りにも強いので、量的緩和論者からも量的緩和反対派からも評判が悪い。だから現状の金融政策をどう評価するかは議論の対象になりにくいのだ。ただ、なんだかんだ言ってマスコミは現状の金融政策を前提にして日銀を批判したり経済解説をしたりしているわけで、ここで簡単にまとめておくのは悪いことでもないだろう。

money-policy.gif

まず、ものすごく大雑把に日銀のやっている事を整理しておこう。日銀の金融政策は、国債を買ったり売ったりする「オペレーション」を通して金利を操作し、金利を動かすことで資金需要を刺激したり抑えたりしてマネーの量(マネーサプライ)をコントロールして、最終的に物価をコントロールしようとしている。今まで書いてきたのは、このプロセスは金利がゼロになってしまうと機能しなくなりますよ、ということだ。

ところが、ご存知の通り日銀は「ゼロ金利でも日銀当座預金残高をコントロールすればマネーサプライをコントロールできます」と主張している(主張させられてる?)。

日銀の当座預金残高とは、各銀行が様々な決済その他の目的で日銀に預けている預金のことだ(日銀には銀行しか預金口座を作れない)。しかし、各銀行が日銀の金庫に現金を預けるとなぜ経済全体のマネーの量が増えるのか、どうにもわかりづらい。そもそも、マネーサプライとは「民間で流通しているマネーの量」のことなので、日銀の金庫で腐っている当座預金はマネーサプライにはカウントされないのだ。

まあ、そのあたりは色々とリクツがあるのだが、いちいち取り上げてもきりが無いので、実際に日銀の当座預金が増えた結果マネーサプライが増えたのかどうか、データで簡単に確認してみよう。

絶望的に低下した日銀の影響力

日銀のマネーサプライへの影響力を測るのに便利なのは信用乗数という数字だ。これはマネーサプライ÷ベースマネー(当座預金と現金の合計)で計算できる。普通この数字は10くらいになる。日銀が当座預金や現金を変化させると、その10倍の規模でマネーサプライに影響を与えることが出来ますよ、ということだ。この数字が小さくなればなるほど、日銀のマネーサプライへの影響力は低下している計算になる。

下図の黒線が信用乗数の推移だ。90年代に入ってどんどん低下し、今やピーク時の半分にまで低下してしまっている。日銀がマネーサプライをコントロールしにくくなっている事はもう明らかだ。

credit-multiplier.gif

だが、これだけだと「それでも当座預金を増やせばその6倍くらいはマネーサプライが増えるんだから効果はあるんじゃないの?」という反論を受けるかもしれない。でもそれは正しくない。信用乗数は残高を残高で割った数字なので、過去の日銀の影響力の平均値としてしか解釈できないのだ。重要なのは「これから当座預金(またはベースマネー)を増やせばどれだけマネーサプライが増えるのか」ということなので、マネーサプライの増加分をベースマネーの増加分で割った限界信用乗数を見なければならない。それが上の図の赤線だ。

色々と誤差を拾ってしまうので見づらいのだが、バブル前は安定的に10以上をキープしていたにもかかわらずバブル崩壊後に5前後まで低下し、ゼロ金利政策が採用された99年以降は更に低下してほとんどゼロ(2003年度で0.75)になってしまっていることが分かる。過去5年間、日銀は様々な政策を打ち出しては来たのだが、マネーサプライに対する影響力は絶望的に小さくなってしまったわけだ。

なぜここまで影響力が低下してしまったのかについては色々と議論があるようだ(このへんを参照)。だが、近年の影響力低下がゼロ金利に関係している事は間違いない。ゼロ金利になった時点で影響力は実質的にゼロに近くなってしまったのに、むりやり金融緩和を続行しようとしたので、データ上にも影響力の低下が現れてしまったわけだ。

こうしてみると、今まで繰り返し書いてきた「ゼロ金利では日銀は無力である」という主張がひとまずデータ上も確認できたと言えるのではないだろうか。

それにしても、当座預金残高をコントロールすることの無意味さは日銀自身も重々承知していることだと思うのだが。その数字を3年に渡ってマジメに議論して見せるのも結構大変そうだ。

長くなってしまったのでシリーズのまとめは次回に。

本日のまとめ

信用乗数の動きを見ると、ゼロ金利になってから日銀はマネーサプライをほとんどコントロールできていない。

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