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金融政策論議の不思議(9) 議論のあり方、政策のあり方

とうとう第9回になってしまったシリーズもこれで最後になる。最初は4~5回でさらりとまとめるはずだったのだが、回数も1回当たりの文章量もどんどん肥大化してしまった。今回は金融政策そのものの議論から少し離れて、金融政策論議をタイムラグをおいて眺めた筆者の感想を述べてから、筆者なりの望ましい金融政策について書いて終わることにしよう。

なぜかみんなで日銀批判

このシリーズを書くに当たって、ネットでどんな議論があったのかは軽く調べた(匿名掲示板の議論は余りにも膨大な上に読みにくく、早々に断念してしまったが)。とにかく不思議だったのは議論が成立しないくらい論調が一方的だったことだ。いわゆる量的緩和をサポートする意見が圧倒的に多く、その結果日銀の無策無能をののしったり嘆いたりする書き込みが大半を占めていた。

確かに海外の多くの有名な学者が量的緩和をサポートしていたから、量的緩和派が優勢になるのは分からないでもない。実際、国内外の量的緩和派の学者をリストアップして「これだけの学者が量的緩和を主張しているのに何もしない日銀は云々」とか、「この学者はどちらのカテゴリーに入るか」とか、なんだか不毛なやり取りもあちこちで見たので、量的緩和派の主張のバックボーンに海外の有名教授の主張があったことは間違いないのではないかと思う。

ただ筆者にとって非常に不思議なのは、「クルーグマン教授も主張しているように~」という意見を展開する割に、ネット内外の量的緩和派の主張はクルーグマン教授らの主張とは結構食い違いがあることだ。金融政策論議の不思議(5)(7)でも取り上げた岩田規久男教授のコメントに代表されるように、量的緩和派の議論は主に国債の買い切りとインフレターゲットに集中している。しかし、このシリーズでも取り上げたが、クルーグマン教授(このペーパーの36ページ)もスヴェンソン教授(このペーパーの1~2ページ)も財政政策(や為替政策)は必要な政策の1つだとはっきり書いているではないか。

何でそういうところだけさっぱり無視して日銀批判に終始するんだよ、というのがこのシリーズを書き始めたひとつのきっかけだったわけだ(別に筆者は日銀には縁もゆかりも無いし、クルーグマン、スヴェンソン両教授の意見が完全に正しいと思っているわけでもないのだが)。日銀批判に明け暮れている限り、金融政策についての議論は全然深まらない。論点は主に日銀の権限の外側にあるのだから。今まで何度か書いてきたように、ゼロ金利で効果があるのは財政政策と為替政策だ。どちらも日銀の所管ではない。政府と財務省こそ、両教授によって無策を問われているのだ。

かみ合わない議論

この記事でも触れたことだが、どうも日本では議論が議論らしくかみ合うことが少ないように思える。必ずどちらかの意見が優勢を占め、対立意見を圧迫する構図になるのだ。日本の議論の特徴についてはまた別の機会に書くつもりなのでここではあまり触れないが、ここ数年の量的緩和関連の掲示板では、論理的な意見は多くあっても論理的な議論はあまり見当たらなかったように思う。量的緩和に反対の議論が出てくると、異端審問のような勢いで排斥されるか、そのまま放置されるかのどちらかのケースがよく見られた(リアルタイムで見ていたわけではないので、断言は出来ないが)。

少なくとも筆者の見る限り、この議論はそんなに一方が優勢になるという性質のものではない。もっと拮抗した議論があっても良かったはずだ。門外漢の筆者が片手間に考えただけでもこれだけの疑問が出てくるのだから。

最初にも書いたとおり筆者は金融政策問題の専門家ではない。ここに書いたことのほとんどは教科書レベルの知識と、そこから出てきた素朴な疑問だけなのだ(2,3,4,8回は経済学の入門書レベル、5,6,7回は修士レベルの中でも簡単なテキストから情報を引いている)。それだけでも疑問がごろごろと出てくるのに、少なくともウェブ上の議論でこの辺りの疑問に答えてくれるものは見当たらなかった。まあ、筆者の疑問は他の方は考えもしないようなお馬鹿な疑問でした、という可能性も結構あるのだが・・・(もしそうなら、恥を広める前に早めにご指導を賜りたい)。

議論のあり方

もうこの学者はこう主張しているからダメだとか、有名な教授は皆こう言っているとか、そういう話は聞き飽きた。どれだけ多くの学者が量的緩和を支持しているから何だというのだろうか。重要なのは彼らのロジックが正しいかどうかと、彼らが用いている前提条件が日本の現状にマッチしているかどうかの2点だけではないか。

ちょうど景気も回復して、金融政策は緊急の政策課題ではなくなりつつある。これを機会に、量的緩和関連の様々な議論について、論理展開とその前提条件がどれだけ妥当なものだったのか、落ち着いて整理し直しても良いと思うのだ。特にバーナンキの背理法を使って「国債の買い切りオペが経済に影響を与える波及経路は議論する必要が無い」とする論法とか、インフレターゲット万歳とか、銀行の役割についての評価などは、じっくりと議論し直すに値するネタだと思うのだが。

ところで、現状の経済をどう評価するか

長々と量的緩和について書いてきたのだが、締まらないことに金融政策論議がぐだぐだしている間に景気は勝手に回復を始めている。シリーズの最後に、この景気回復をどう解釈すべきか、もしまた景気が腰折れて金融政策の出番がやってきたときにどのような政策が最善なのか、筆者なりの考え方を書いて〆とすることにしたい。

「デフレ=悪」という論理は間違い?

そもそも、量的緩和派の主張の根っこには「デフレは良くないから経済政策で何とかしましょうね」という動機付けがあるわけで(この辺りは金融政策論議の不思議(2)を参照していただきたい)、それがするすると景気が回復し始めてしまうとどうにも格好が悪い。木村剛氏のサイトでも高らかに勝利宣言が発せられたりして、なんだか量的緩和派は一気に影が薄くなってしまったようだ(繰り返しになるが、議論が拮抗せずに必ず一方が優位を占め、対立側は下を向いてごにょごにょ言うだけという構図がまた繰り返されているのは興味深い)。

ただ、景気が回復したから量的緩和派、またはデフレは良くない派が間違っている、と言うのはさすがに無理がある。別にデフレだからといって景気変動はその中で起こる。デフレの下では投資が伸びにくかったりするが、それとは別に在庫は増えたり減ったりするのだから。問題なのは、平均値としての成長が鈍化してしまうことなのだ。

デフレは良くない派の中にはデフレになると悪循環の連鎖(デフレスパイラル)が起こって大恐慌突入、とかウケ狙いのネタをかますヒョウロンカの方々も多かったので、木村氏が彼らを揶揄したくなる気持ちは良く分かる。だが、実際にはデフレスパイラルに陥る可能性も結構あったけどなんとか持ちこたえましたね、と解釈するのが自然だろう。

GDP-CPI.gif

上の図は過去20年のGDPの伸び率とインフレ率(消費者物価指数)の伸びをプロットしたものだ(消費税の分は大雑把に調整してある)。デフレに入り始めた90年代の半ば以降、景気は山谷を繰り返しながら順調に左前なのが見て取れる。デフレが問題なのはこのような平均値での成長の鈍化を招くからなのだ。

では、これからどうなるのか・どうするのか

ご存知の通り、2004年の第1四半期にGDPは大幅に上昇している。もしかしたらこのまま景気は回復を続け、それにしたがって物価も上昇に転じ、全ては政策の助けを借りずに解決するかもしれない。逆にここから景気は減速し、来年の今頃にはまた金融政策の有効性について眉をしかめて議論しなければならないかもしれない。

幸い筆者はアナリストではないのでここから景気がどちらへ向かうか賭ける必要はない。このまま回復するなら日本経済の底力にビールで乾杯するし、逆に夏辺りでピークアウトしてしまうのであれば長々書いてきたことが無駄にならないのでそれはそれで喜ばしい(筆者のクビは寒くなるかもしれないが)。とりあえず現時点では判断がつかない以上、最悪のケースも想定して経済政策を準備しておくのが妥当だ、としか言えない。

ただし、ひとつ気をつけておくべきなのは、現状の金融政策はデフレからの脱却には全く効果がないが、デフレから脱却した後で景気の加速を後押しする効果はあるということだ。金融政策の不思議(4)で書いたことだが、日銀が困っている問題は資金供給を増やそうとしてもそれに見合うだけの資金需要を刺激できなくなっているということだ。もし資金需要が景気の回復によって自力で増加すれば、日銀が必死に供給しようとしているマネーは実際に経済をめぐり始める。それによって景気が一気に過熱してしまうリスクは計算に入れておくべきだろう。その意味で、現状の金融政策は忘れた頃に爆発する迷惑な不発弾のようなものかもしれない。

望ましい金融政策の方向性

では、もし不幸にも来年あたりにまた不景気がやってきた場合、望ましい金融政策とはどんなものなのだろうか。今まで計8回のシリーズで書いてきたのは、

・財政政策は効果があるが財政赤字をこれ以上増やすのは心配
・為替政策も効果があるが政治的に実行可能かどうが不透明
・ゼロ金利の下では、国債を買うだけでは金融緩和にならない
・銀行はやはり金融政策の効果に大きな影響を持っている可能性が高い
・インフレターゲットは無益

ということなので、筆者の考える政策はこの裏返しになる。

まず、財政拡大は避けて通れないだろう。財政赤字が巨額なのはもはや常識だが、なんと言っても日本には無敵の1400兆円の個人資産がある。後1度くらい財政拡大をすることは不可能ではないだろうし、もしそれが無理ならその分の赤字国債は日銀が購入すればよい。

為替政策は出来るならそれに越した事は無いのだが、スヴェンソン教授の主張する固定相場制の導入を本気で主張する勇気は筆者には無い。もし政治的に実行可能なら大いにやっていただきたい。

銀行の不良債権問題は大臣竹中平蔵氏の勝利と敗北でも書いたとおり解決に向かっているので、後は銀行が健全な審査能力を発揮してリスクを取った貸出行動に移る事を祈るだけだ。過去20年に渡って優秀な人材を随分死蔵してきたのだから、そのくらいは期待してもいいと思うのだが。

もう1点、あえて奇をてらった政策を提案するなら、中小企業への特別信用保証制度の復活だ。筆者は過去の特別信用保証を支持するわけでは決して無いのだが、金融政策論議の不思議(5)でも書いたように、流動性の高い資産(国債など)と同じく流動性の高い貨幣をいくら交換しても効果は限られている。どうせやるなら、もっとも流動性の低い資産と貨幣を交換すべきなのだ。その意味では、上場株や社債などもまだまだ流動性の高い商品であり、買いオペの対象としては物足りない。思い切って中小企業の手形を買うくらいの覚悟で臨んでもらいたい。審査の問題など、実行段階での問題は多そうだが。

結びに代えて

思いつくままに金融政策について色々と書いてきたら随分長くなってしまった。ここまで書いて2万5000字、A4で30枚近くになってしまっている。書いている側も疲れ果てているのだから、ネットという長文には明らかに向かないメディアで最後まで読んでいただいた読者の方々のストレスは相当なものだと思う。心の底からありがとうございますと申し上げたい。少しでも読みやすくなるように努力はしたつもりなのだが、意味が分からなかったり内容に疑問がある場合はコメントを頂ければ幸いだ。

筆者としては第1回で挙げたいくつかのリンク先とは少し方向性の違ったシリーズには出来たかな、と思っているのだが、その辺りの評価は読者の方々にお任せすべきだろう。金融政策問題に興味を持った方の比較検討の一助にして頂ければ、筆者としては十分以上に報われた気分になれる。後は間違いの指摘を頂きながら適宜修正して、もう少し使いでのある資料に仕上げていければと思っているが、とりあえずこの辺りで一旦〆とさせていただきたい。

本日のまとめ

議論の前提条件とロジックの流れをもう一度整理すべきではないか。

別に今景気が良くなってきたからといって量的緩和派(またはデフレは良くないと考える人たち)の意見が間違っていることにはならない。ただし、量的緩和派の主張(国債買い切りやインフレターゲットなど)はやっぱり間違っている。

現状の金融政策は景気回復には役に立たないが、景気が回復した後に景気を過熱させる効果はある。

長々とお付き合いいただいてありがとうございました(まとめ?)。

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Comments

>景気が回復した後に景気を過熱させる効果はある。

現状の政策を概ね支持し、先便をきって日本市場に資金を注ぎ込んできた外国人勢の概括は、この言葉に集約されるかもしれませんね。

Posted by: 甚六 | July 23, 2004 at 07:44 PM

甚六さん、コメントありがとうございます。

外人が何を考えているのか私には正直掴みかねるところがあるのですが、金融緩和による景気過熱が実際に起こった場合(少し前のEconomistでそういう特集がありましたが)、当然日銀は思い切った利上げで対抗するはずで、マーケットの動きはかなりピーキーになると思います。

そうなると大事なのは逃げ足の速さですが、最近はヨーロッパからの買いがかなりの規模で入っているようですし、あまり逃げ足の速い資金ばかりには見えないんですよね・・・どちらかというとポートフォリオのリバランスとかで粛々と買っているイメージがあるのですが、どんなもんなのでしょうね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 24, 2004 at 10:05 AM

ごぶさたしております(といいますか、こちらでははじめましてとご挨拶すべきでしょうか)。

無事連載完結おめでとうございます。あんまりお喜びはいただけないかとは思いますが(笑)、完結を機に私のサイトに、一連のテキストについてのコメントを書かせていただきましたので、ご一読の上、感想などお聞かせいただければ幸いです。
http://bewaad.com/history2.html#Jul2504

お互い、建設的な議論ができればいいですね。それでは。

Posted by: bewaad | July 26, 2004 at 02:48 AM

Bewaadさん、コメントどうもありがとうございます。

もちろん、喜んで拝見させていただきました。やたらと長くなった本文に目を通していただいただけでもありがたいのに、詳細なコメントまでいただけるとは恐縮です。

今週中にBewaadさんのコメントに対してなんらかの形で回答させていただきたいと思います。よろしくお願いします。

バックナンバーに過去の記事のインデックスが表示されると信じ込んでいたので、ややこしそうなカテゴリー表示は存在のあるなしも含めて全く調べていなかったのですが、まさか全文ベタ表示をするだけだったとは。あわててカテゴリーを追加しました。それほど読みやすさは向上していませんが・・・やはり自前でホームページを借りてそこにTypepadなりMovableTypeなりのBlogソフトを入れたほうが便利なんでしょうか・・・

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 26, 2004 at 10:47 AM

それにしても、山崎元氏という方は存じ上げないのですが、木村氏にしても、その山崎氏にしてもなぜそこまで不用意な発言をするのでしょうね(これは発言だったのでしょうか、それとも紙媒体なのでしょうか。発言であれば口を滑らせた、ということもありえますが)。クルーグマン教授のコメントをひとつでも読んだことがあれば、そんな人ではないことくらい分かりそうなものですが・・・。

ゴキブリ発言にしても、キャッチーな発言をしたい気持ちは分かるのですが、もう少しひねらないとつまらないと思うんですが。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 26, 2004 at 12:27 PM

カテゴリを設けるなど、
迅速・丁寧な対応ありがとうございます。

さて、ご参考までに山崎・木村両氏のコメントのソースをご紹介します。

山崎氏のコメントはここでご覧になれます。
http://jmm.cogen.co.jp/jmmarchive/m028001.html

木村氏のコメントは、金子勝・宮崎哲弥との共著、
日本経済「出口」あり(http://www.amazon.co.jp/exec/obidos/ASIN/4393621646/)
中のものです。

Posted by: bewaad | July 27, 2004 at 03:03 AM

やっと書き上げました。遅くなって申し訳ありません。書きすぎて大量に没にしたりしていたら時間がかかりました・・・

山崎氏のコメントは読みました。書いてある内容には同意できる部分もあるものの、どうしてこんなに無駄なレトリックが多いんでしょう。読みづらいんですが。

それと、内容を気になさる必要はないと思います。生保の運用担当の方のようですから、国債をしこたま買ってるはずです。急激に景気が回復したら大損ですから、ああ言わざるを得ないのです。そうでないと「じゃぁなんでポートフォリオの大半が国債なんだよ」というツッコミを受けてしまいます。いわゆるポジショントークという奴ですね。

ポジショントークをいちいち真に受けていても時間の無駄ですので、聞き流すのが一番です。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 31, 2004 at 10:37 AM

経済は、理論は好きだけど、統計が出てくるっと感じですけど、少しコメントを書かせていただきます。

今日、大学の経済学の先生が書かれていた。
金融に関する本を読んでました。
マネーサプライとかあれこれ出てきて、はじめは大混乱でしたが、電子辞書の経済用語辞典を引きながら、何とか理解できたか、誤解しているか、というところです。

今景気は上昇傾向ですけど、もし、景気の上昇を図るのなら、財政政策しか方法はないのでしょうか?

レーガノミクスのような方法は、意味はないのでしょうか?

Posted by: hiro | January 30, 2006 at 01:20 AM

hiroさん、コメントありがとうございます。

金利がゼロになっている以上、「今」これ以上の金融政策を行うことは出来ません。財政政策か、為替政策になります。ここで、将来の政策にコミットするという選択肢もあるのですが、これについてはそのうちエントリーで書こうと思います。

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