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大臣竹中平蔵氏の勝利と敗北

個人的に参院選唯一の関心事となっている竹中平蔵氏について、もう少しウォッチしてみたい(あ、あともう一人いた)。なお、この記事は数日前に書いた「大臣竹中平蔵氏の男気成分」の続編なので、是非こちらから先にどうぞ。

前回はひたすら竹中氏の心構えについて書いたのだが、Bewaad氏から「問題なのは構造改革をどう評価するかだ」というご指摘を頂戴したので、今回は竹中氏の仕事振りをどう評価するかを考えてみよう。ただし、構造改革全部を追っかけているときりがなさそうなので、氏の銀行改革が成功したのか失敗したのかに話を絞りたい。

前回の金融政策論議の不思議(6)でも、竹中氏の手がけた不良債権処理に対して賛否両論があるという事を書いた。この議論はとにかく複雑で、まとめて整理することなど思いもよらないのだが、少なくとも不良債権処理はいつか誰かがやらなければならない、という点では多分全員がうなずくはずだ。要するに今やるか、後でやるかで意見が分かれたわけだ。

念のために書くが、景気が良くなったら自然に不良債権問題は解決するから放っておけばいいじゃんとお考えの方、いくらなんでもそれは甘い。人材が逃げ去って抜け殻と化した企業が復活するはずも無く、地価が回復する保証も無く、たとえ地価が回復したところでその頃までに担保の土地は六番抵当に短期貸借権までついて登記簿はぐちゃぐちゃだ。株の爆騰を期待する手もあるが、超長期保有前提で持ってる株の含み益を全部吐き出したら後が怖い。ソフトダラー(あぶく銭をエレガントに表現した言葉。証券用語。)の価値は低いのだ。

それでも不良債権処理の早期実施に反対する人が多くいたのは、大雑把に言えばそのせいで更に不景気になる恐れがあったからだ。さらにきっつい反論には、「不景気になれば新たに不良債権が増えるので、不良債権を減らすことそれ自体が不可能」というものもあった。

ところが、竹中氏の金融相就任後とにもかくにも不良債権は減り、景気はなんとかクラッシュすることなく上向き始めた。別にこの景気回復が竹中氏の業績だとまでは思わないのだが、景気のクラッシュを避けながらここまで不良債権処理を進められた時点で、竹中氏は反論の大部分に自らの仕事で応えたことにならないだろうか。

ちなみに、最近証券系のレポートでもほとんど話題に上っていないようなので改めて紹介すると、2003年3月末から2004年3月末までの1年間で不良債権は34兆円から24兆円まで減少している(全国銀行協会データより)。2001年の43兆円からほぼ半分になっているわけだ。これで不良債権問題が解決したと言えるかどうかは微妙だが、このあたりで不良債権問題のレポートを検索しても、今年に入って書かれたレポートは92本中6本だけ。ほとんどの人はもはや不良債権問題を深刻な問題としては捉えていないわけだ。とすれば、少なくとも不良債権処理のめどは立ったと考えて良いだろう。

2年ほど前の記者会見(柳沢氏を更迭して竹中氏を後釜にすえたときのもの)で小泉首相は「平成16年度中に不良債権処理を終結させる」と宣言した。この調子で行けば平成16年度中の全額償却は無理でもそれに近いところまでは行きそうだから、この「公約」はほぼ達成されたことになる。大々的に売り出したマニフェストを選挙が終わるなり無かったことにした某政党に比べれば、その有言実行ぶりはもう少しほめられても良いと思うのだ。


とまぁここに書いたような事を昨日友人に熱く語ってみたのだが、
さわやかな笑顔と共に「うーん、でもさぁ、ちょっと新鮮味ないよね」というクールな反応を頂戴してしまった。

(´・ω・`) ←その時の筆者の表情を余すところ無く表現した秀逸なAA


・・・銀行改革の成功を竹中氏の勝利とするなら、、これこそが氏の敗北かもしれない。アピールすべき実績がなんだかムツカシすぎるのだ。それにしても、彼女の意見が世論を代表しているとは思わないが、竹中氏がキャリアを賭けて作り上げた実績が分かりづらいというだけの理由でさらりと忘れ去られ、新鮮味だけで評価されてしまうのだとすれば、世論とはあまりにも残酷だ。

追記:前回コメントを頂いたかみぽこ氏がちょうど経済論戦の有無について書かれていたのでトラックバック。経済論戦に限らず、論戦が盛り上がることが無いのはなぜなんでしょうね。別に今回の選挙に限ったことでもないと思うのですが。

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Comments

筆者注:
本文中で景気が良くなっても不良債権は減らない、というくだりがありますが、貸出条件緩和債権のような不良債権のグレーゾーンは景気しだいで増えたり減ったりします。景気が良くなっても減らないのは延滞債権と破綻先債権で、これらが不良債権全体の過半を占めています。
この大臣竹中平蔵氏シリーズは正確さよりも勢い重視で書くことに決めているので、この辺りの説明はすっとばしてしまいました。

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