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今週のThe Economist: グリーンスパン議長の功罪

原題:Economics Focus: It’s not always good to talk (July 24th, 2004)

今週の~とか銘打ちながら、実のところ先週の記事であったりする。個人的には非常に面白い記事だったので、色々調べていたら時間が経ってしまった。

金融市場に携わる者なら、いやそうでなくとも、FRB(連邦準備銀行)のグリーンスパン議長と聞けばもはやある種のカリスマ性を感じるのではないだろうか。1987年に就任して以来、彼は市場の反応を読みきった見事な舵取りでアメリカの金融市場をコントロールしてきた。特にそのきめ細やかなコメントの出し方は素晴らしいの一言だろう。

ところが、そのきめ細かさこそがむしろ金融市場を混乱に陥れる可能性がある、というのがこの記事の趣旨なのだ。

グリーンスパン議長の特徴は、コメントを出す回数がやたらと多いことだ。Economist誌によれば、7月末段階ですでに24回のスピーチをこなしている。無用なサプライズを生まないような微妙なコメントを繰り返すことで、債券市場を狙い通りの金利水準に軟着陸させるわけだ。もっとも、回数が多ければいいというものではない。毎日コメントを出しては無視される某国財務省財務官のような例もあることだし(キチガイのような巨額の為替介入を繰り返す時だけは注目されるのだが・・・)。

グリーンスパン議長に限らず、中央銀行は金融政策について可能な限り説明し、透明性を確保すべしというのは今やほとんど当たり前のこととして信じられている。インフレターゲットを採用する国が増えているのもその証拠だろう。筆者は「金融政策論議の不思議(7)」で現時点のインフレターゲットの採用に反対しているが、それだってインフレターゲットを今採用する事はむしろ金融政策の透明性を損なうと考えているからであって、金融政策は透明であるべしという考え方自体には賛成なのだ。

金融政策に透明性が求められる理由は3つある。ひとつは政治的な要請。中央銀行は選挙で選ばれず、政府からも独立しているので、国民によるチェックが効きにくい。その分透明性を高めて国民がチェックできるようにする必要がある。2つめはインフレターゲット。これは「金融政策論議の不思議(7)」で解説済みだ。3つ目は期待のコントロール。中央銀行がコントロールするのはあくまでも短期金利なので、長期金利に影響を与えるには今後の金融政策に対する期待をコントロールするしかない(理論上、10年金利は今後10年分の短期金利の予想の平均値なのだ)。


ではEconomist誌はなぜ透明性が高いことが必ずしも良いことではないと主張しているのだろうか。実のところ、この記事はEconomist誌の主張ではなく、アマト・モリス・シンの3氏による論文を基にしている(モリス教授・シン教授は共に世界的な経済学者)。

アマト・モリス・シンの3氏の主張は簡単にまとめると以下のようなものだ。

株や債券で勝負をするとレーダーは、普通2種類の情報に基づいて投資戦略を練る。1つは世間一般にアナウンスされる公開情報。グリーンスパン議長のコメントや、毎日のように発表される経済統計、企業業績の類がこれだ。もう1つが個人情報。例えば、タクシーの運ちゃんは毎日の仕事の中で景気の良し悪しを彼らなりに実感できるだろうし、魚屋の兄ちゃんは高級魚が売れ始めたら景気は上向き、という経験則を持っているかもしれない。この手の情報は自分しか知ることが出来ないので、公開情報とは異なる。

普通トレーダーはこの2種類の情報をミックスして景気の先行きを占い、株を買うか売るか決めるのだが、ここで1つ問題がある。トレーダーが儲けるためには、別に景気の先行きや企業業績を正確に予想する必要はない。企業の業績がどうなろうと、みんなが株を買えばその株価は上がるのだ。

だから、究極のところファンダメンタルズは株(債券)投資にとって特に重要ではない。本当に重要なのは、周りの投資家たちがどの株を買おうとしているのかという予測だ。この考え方をケインズの美人投票という。

マクロ経済学の創始者のケインズは学者として名を成す前には株投資で一財を築いた人で、この辺りの事情に詳しかった。彼の例えはこんなものだ。あるところで美人コンテストが開かれた。参加者は一番の美人に投票すればいいのだが、優勝した美人に投票した人には賞品が出るようなコンテストだとしよう。この時、参加者は自分の一番好みの子に投票する事は無い。代わりに、一番人気の出そうな子に投票する。その結果、一番の美人よりも一般受けするそこそこの美人が優勝をかっさらうことになる。ファンダメンタルズと投票結果にゆがみが生じるわけだ。

もしこのコンテストの実行委員会が、お節介にもコンテストの候補者に「委員会イチオシ!」とかの格付けをしていたらどうなるだろう。例え委員会の女性を見る目がイマイチで、必ずしも1番の美人が高く格付けされていなかったとしても、参加者としてはこの格付けを無視するわけにはいかない。他の参加者が誰に投票するのか、その予想の手がかりはこの格付けしかないからだ。

その結果、コンテストの結果は必要以上に委員会の格付け(=公開情報)に引きずられ、一方で参加者ひとりひとりの好み(=個人情報)は結果に反映されにくくなってしまう。格付けの存在が、コンテストの結果のゆがみを更に大きくしてしまうのだ。


金融市場でも同じことが起こる。この時、委員会の格付けはグリーンスパン議長のコメントであったり、四季報の公表だったりする。グリーンスパン議長に市場の信頼が集まれば集まるほど、市場は彼のコメントにだけ大きく反応し、個々人が持つその他の情報を軽視するようになるのだ。

金融市場の健全さは多様性で保たれている。景気が良くなると思う人、悪くなると思う人、無数の予想を反映して株価も金利も決まっている。「親切すぎる中央銀行」はこの多様性を押しつぶしてしまうのだ。

もちろん、グリーンスパン議長が完璧に正しいコメントを出し続けている限り、彼のコメントに依存しきっていても何も問題は無い。ただ、グリーンスパン議長だって人の子だ。読みを間違う事はあって当然。そのとき、金融市場の動揺は増幅されてしまう。彼のコメントへの信頼の深さが、市場の動揺の大きさにつながってしまうのだ。


ここまで読んでいただいた読者の方の中には「透明性は必要、でも情報公開を進めると市場の多様性が失われて株価(金利)の変動幅が大きくなるっていうんじゃ、一体どうすればいいんだよ」と思われる方もいるだろう。アマト・モリス・シンの3氏も上の議論で「だから中央銀行は情報公開をすべきではない、という結論にはならない」と書いている。上でも書いたが、透明性を保つことで得られるメリットも大きいからだ。だから、この話から何かずばっと「こうすべきだ!」という流れにはなりにくい。せいぜい、グリーンスパン議長が神のごとき信仰を集めているうちに、長いオプション買っときますかねっていうくらいのものだ(失敗しても責任は取れないので、自己責任でどうぞ・・・)。

大切なのは、当たり前のように信じられていることでも、金科玉条のように振りかざして議論を進めるべきではないということだろう。どんな話にもベネフィットもあればコストもある。その片方だけを見て「この話を採用しない(する)×××は馬鹿だ!」と短絡的に話を進めると、思わぬ落とし穴にはまる事になる。経済の議論にしても、投資の判断にしても。

こういう新しい視点の発見があるから、経済学は面白い。

本日のまとめ

株価の先行きを読むには、景気がどうなるかよりも周りのトレーダーがどう動くかを知ることが重要。

そのため、中央銀行が色々な情報を提供すると、トレーダー達は他のトレーダーがこれらの情報に基づいて動くと予想して、中央銀行の情報に必要以上に依存するようになる。

この状態で中央銀行が少しでも判断を誤ると、その過ちが増幅されて金融市場を動揺させる。

金融政策に透明性は必要だが、このように透明性を確保したために起こる問題もある。

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Comments

相場の真理ですね。
さしずめ、私達は「美人コンテスト」に「投票できる強者」に投票している「自覚のない弱者」と言うところですかね。

ウマに乗る・・・提灯とも言いますね。(笑い)

Posted by: 甚六 | August 09, 2004 at 06:57 PM

甚六さん、どうもです。

確かに、日本の市場は(特に債券市場)寡占市場なので、強者(機関投資家)の判断についていくしかない面はありますよね。ただ、フォローしていく判断自体を自覚的にやるようにしないと、前にも書いたビハインドし続けのパターンにはまってしまうかもしれませんね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | August 09, 2004 at 10:23 PM

馬車馬さん、こんにちは~

日本では、ピンからキリまで「総ガットトレーダー」と言うところですかね・・・言い過ぎですね・・・

「コネチカットの算術師達(笑い)」にハナであしらわれ続けて早十数年・・・

まあ、その間に「ペテンが廻り過ぎてテンパッた」、「ロングターム」なんてのもありましたが。(笑い)

Posted by: 甚六 | August 14, 2004 at 02:55 PM

甚六さん、どうもです。うーん、総ガットトレーダーですか。でもガットトレーダーの正確な意味ってなんですか?たまに聞くので、なんとなく判った気になっていたんですが、この言葉は債券では使わないので(多分)、良く分からないままなんですよね。

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