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金融政策論議の不思議(14) 日銀が国債を買うと株投資は増えるか

Bewaad氏との論戦シリーズ第4回だ。分かりやすく書こうとするとどうしても長くなってしまうのだが、その分読み飛ばしやすいだろうから、そのあたりはご容赦いただきたい(Bewaad氏の直近のコメントはこちら)。

ただ、余りにも長いのはなんなので、とりあえず論点整理は近日中に別記事に改めてまとめるとして、とりあえず今回は前回の議論の続きだけに集中することにしよう。つまり、「ポートフォリオ・リバランス」、日銀が国債を銀行から買い上げたら、その分銀行は株やらなにやら、その他資産の投資に乗り出すかどうかという議論だ。その他資産への投資が増えれば、それ自体で経済に流通するマネーも増えるし、資産価格の上昇も設備投資を刺激する可能性がある。その結果、インフレを起こすことが出来るということだ。


そもそも、ポートフォリオ・マネージメントとは

さて、Bewaad氏は要約すると「国債への投資はそれなりのリスクを伴っており、それが国債買いオペの結果ノーリスクの現金に置き換わってしまったとき、銀行はポートフォリオ全体のリスクの大きさを維持するために何らかのリスキーな投資に乗り出すはずだ」といった趣旨の事を書いておられるのだが、この考え方にはポートフォリオマネージメントの基本的な考え方が欠けている。

例えば、ある投資家がものすごく値動きの激しい2種類の株だけを同額保有していたとしよう。当然、彼のポートフォリオは非常にハイリスクに見える。しかし、もしこの2種類の株価の動きが反比例していたらどうだろう。もし、片方の株価が30%上がったら、もう片方の株価は30%下がる、という完全な反比例(逆相関)の関係があったとき、彼のポートフォリオのリスクはゼロになる。ポートフォリオのリスクは、各資産のリスクの足し算で決まるものではないのだ。

つまり、Bewaad氏の一連の議論にはポートフォリオの各資産の相関関係を考えるという視点が決定的に欠けている。ポートフォリオからリスキーな資産が消えたら、ポートフォリオ全体のリスクが下がるというわけではないのだ。氏がポートフォリオから国債が減ったら代わりに株を買うだろうという直感的に到底受け入れがたい結論にたどり着いてしまったのはこれが原因だ。

もう少し具体的な例を考えてみよう。

とりあえず、世の中には債券、株、現金の3種類の資産だけがあるとする。更に債券が10%値上がりすると株価は30%下がり、逆に債券が10%値下がりすると株価は30%上がるという完全な逆相関関係があると仮定しよう。インフレが起こると(概して)株価は上がり、一方で債券と現金の価値は下がるのだが、ややこしいのでとりあえずインフレ率はゼロとしておく。

この時、例えば株を2割、債券を6割、現金を2割の割合でポートフォリオを組めば、このポートフォリオのリスクはゼロになる。もしポートフォリオマネージャーが景気に対して強気であれば、株の割合をもう少し増やして債券(または現金)の割合を減らすだろうし、逆に弱気であれば株の割合を減らすだろう。そのあたりは人それぞれだ。とりあえず、上の2-6-2のポートフォリオであれば、マネージャーの景気判断は中立的ということになる。

ここで、日銀がポートの国債を全て買い占めたらどうなるだろうか。ポートフォリオは株2割、現金8割になる。この時、ポートフォリオのリスクが明らかに増加している事を確認して欲しい。2-6-2のケースでは、株価の変動は債券価格の変動でいつでもヘッジできていたが、2-0-8のケースでは株価の変動はポートフォリオ全体の損益に直結してしまう。

更に、このマネージャーの景気判断は中立であるのに、ポートフォリオ自体は景気に対して強気になってしまっているのもまずい。間違いなく、このポートフォリオはリバランスを必要としている。

一番手っ取り早いリバランスはまたどこかから国債を買ってきて、2-6-2のアロケーションを組み直すことだが、もしこれが出来ない場合、残された唯一の方法は株を全額売却し、100%のキャッシュポジションを取ることだ。国債の買いオペが、むしろ株の売り圧力を強めてしまったわけだ


もう少し複雑なポートフォリオでも、それほど結論は変わらない。国債の代わりに社債を買うという選択肢もないではないが、クレジットリスクがある分株に近いし、第一もともとの発行量が少なすぎる。米国債であれば、金利の動きもそれなりに円金利に似ている気もするが、金利リスクよりも為替リスクが圧倒的に大きいので、国債の代替には到底なりえない(為替リスクをヘッジすると理論上は円債投資に等しくなるのだが、そもそも為替リスクをヘッジするのは目先2年が限界で、それ以上はマーケットがほとんどない。通貨スワップという手もあるが、手数料をかなりふんだくられる事を覚悟せねばならないし、どちらにしても多額のヘッジは無理だ)。

このあたりの要素を考えると、現金と国債は(インフレを加味した)収益率の相関関係から言っても、信用リスクが同等だという点からも、極めて似通った金融商品だという事は改めて強調しておきたい。筆者が根本的に国債買いオペの効果に悲観的な究極の理由はここにあるのだ。ほとんど同じものをとりかえっこして、経済にどんな影響があるというのだろう?


邦銀経営は健全化したのか:自己資本比率の話

さて、とりあえずポートフォリオの事は一旦忘れよう。銀行は株でも何でも、それなりのリスクのある投資をしようとしたと考える。

なるほど、Bewaad氏が指摘するとおり、確かに日本の銀行の自己資本比率は意外と高い。手元のThe Economistの記事を見ると、三菱東京(MTFG)が13.0%、みずほが11.4%、住友三井(SMFG)も11.4%。対して前の記事で取り上げたドイツ銀行の自己資本比率は13.6%だから、大差ない(ただし、ここをみると、MTFGの自己資本比率は12.0%に見える。まぁ、どちらにしても高いことに変わりはない)。一般的な感覚として、12%もあれば十分であったはずだ。

なんだ、日本の銀行はもう復活してんじゃん、と思いたくなる数字だが、ちょっと待って欲しい。こんなに日本の銀行の自己資本は充実しているというのに、なぜ彼らはあんなに消極的なのだろうか?同じ自己資本比率のドイツ銀行はあれだけアグレッシブに投資をしているというのに。直感的に納得しづらくはないだろうか?

実のところ、邦銀の自己資本比率の高さにはからくりがある。

まず、この自己資本比率は公的資金注入後のものであること(MTFGだけは返済し終わっているので関係ないが)。この公的資金は主に優先株という形で自己資本に算入されているわけだが、言うまでもなく株であろうが何であろうが公的資金には返済義務がある。そもそも、返済義務のあるお金をしゃあしゃあと自己資本に算入すること自体がほとんど詐欺だと思うのだが。

2点目。この数字は繰延税金資産でかさ上げされている。繰延税金資産とは、大雑把には当面税務上免税が認められないが、将来的に免税が認められる可能性が高いものを資産として計上したものだ。これも自己資本に算入可能なのだが、当然この中には最終的に免税が認められないものも出てくる(詳しい説明は省くが、大甘な収益計画を書くことで繰延税金資産を増やすことが出来る)。

当然、自己資本としては「質が悪い」。いざロスが出たときに自己資本を取り崩そうとしても、銀行の手元に現金があるわけではない。倒産の瀬戸際で自己資本の重要性は増すというのに、倒産したら消滅するのが繰延税金資産だ。その意味で、詐欺性は公的資金よりも高い。だから、繰延税金資産を自己資本に算入するのを制限しようという議論があるのだが、銀行側の猛反発で未だに決着はついていない(ただし、2005年度から何らかの繰延税金資産の算入制限を導入する事は既に決定済み)。

3点目。上の話でなんとなく理解していただけたと思うのだが、自己資本にも質の高いもの(株や利益剰余金)と質の低いもの(劣後債や繰延税金資産など)がある。このうち、質の高い自己資本だけで計算した自己資本比率をTier-1比率と呼ぶのだが、日本の銀行は総じてこのTier-1比率が低い


さて、ではこのあたりを考慮すると日本の銀行の自己資本比率はどうなるだろうか。MTFGは公的資金は返済済みだし、繰延税金資産も2004年3月期で5000億円程度。全額自己資本からさっぴいても自己資本比率は1%ポイントくらいしか下がらない。さすがニッポンの優良行。ただし、それでもTier-1比率は6.5%と、ドイツ銀行の9.4%からは随分水をあけられている。

SMFGはどうだろう。バランスシートを見ると公的資金と思しき期限付劣後債・優先株が1.6兆円。繰延税金資産も1.5兆円。公的資金分を除くと自己資本比率は8.6%にまで下がる。更に繰延税金資産のうち3割を試しに割り引くと、7.8%まで下がってしまう。面倒くさいのでみずほその他は見ていないが、まぁ似たようなものではないだろうか。

これが邦銀の現実だ。前回分かりやすさ重視で「BIS様がお許しにならないから株は買えない」と書いたのはちょっとミスリーディングだったかもしれないのだが、株のようなリスクのある資産を買うには、損を出しても倒産しないだけのバッファー(=自己資本)が必要なのだ。BIS規制はそのために存在する。見かけ上BIS規制をクリアしていても、それですぐリスキーな投資に乗り出せるというものではないのだ。


このあたりの事情を考えると、国債を日銀が買えば銀行がその他資産への投資に乗り出すという考え方は、楽観的というよりもむしろ間違っている。自己資本比率の問題は今後解決に向かうとしても、根本的なポートフォリオマネージメントの問題はいかんともしがたいと思うのだが。

本日のまとめ

ポートフォリオ・マネージメントは各資産の相関関係が重要な意味を持つので、国債が減った分株など別の資産を買うという投資行動は通常成立しない。

ポートフォリオから国債が減ると、むしろ株などのその他資産は売却される恐れもある

邦銀の自己資本比率の高さは見せ掛けに過ぎない。

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Comments

こんにちは。約1週間程、ネット接続不能になっておりましたので、遅まきながらコメントを記載したいと思います。

日銀による国債の買切オペ有用論は、政府支出拡大に伴うクラウディングアウトを抑えるためのもので、その点の効果だけは認められます。しかし、市場から国債を吸い上げれば、銀行が株式等のリスク・アセットを増やすというのは、机上の話と小生も考えます。

現実的には銀行を含む預金金融機関が国債を購入出来ない程、日銀が国債を購入をすることは不可能であり、もし行ったとすると、長期国債市場がコール市場に続き、市場機能を停止するということになり、それは大きな損失と考えます。しかし、金融社会主義国としてはそれでも良いという論はあるかもしれませんが。

確率論ではなく期待値で金融政策を考えると、デフレが継続する可能性が高いがインフレになった時の損失が小さい政策と、デフレが継続する可能性が低いがインフレになった時に大きな損失が発生するような政策の2つがあった場合、日銀は間違いなく前者を選択するでしょう。これが小生のマイブームの考え方です。

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