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ギャンブラーになれそうもない日本の銀行

先週、日本の銀行は不良債権に悩んでいるが、世界の銀行は間接金融から直接金融へのシフトに伴う収益源の縮小に悩んでいるという話を書いた。

当然のことながら、この直接金融へのシフトは日本でも起こっている。今のところこの問題が表面化していないのはただただ日本の銀行が先のことなど考えられないくらいに追い詰められていたからで、恐らく不良債権処理がほぼ終了するここ数年の間に、日本でもクローズアップされてくるのだろう。

この問題に対するドイツ銀行の答えは「貸出業務を縮小して自己資金での投資と客資金の投資仲介業務に集中する」というものだったわけだが、では日本の銀行はどうするのだろうか?

合併して収益力は上がるのか?

とりあえず現時点では都銀は合併合戦に邁進している。まぁ、なんとなく10年前のアメリカの銀行業界に似ていないこともない。そこで、まず都銀の合併が収益率の向上に役に立つのか考えてみよう。

前回にも書いたが、銀行の収益源は主に4つだ。決済、融資、投資仲介、そして自己資金による投資だ。

実のところ、合併してメリットが見込めるのは決済業務だけだ。支店の統合、システムの効率化、どれをとっても決済業務は大規模にやったほうが効率が良い。アメリカの地銀がものすごい勢いで合併を繰り返しているのも頷ける話だ。

融資業務は? 前回も書いたが、今後の融資業務は数少ない優良貸出先の取り合いになる。その意味では、競争相手の数が減った方が何かと楽だという事はあるかもしれない。しかしそんなものは所詮付随的な要素であって、本質的には銀行の規模が大きくなったところで融資業務は大して効率化されない。貸出先は相変わらず小規模なままだからだ。せいぜい、重複した支店従業員を整理する程度の効果ではなかろうか。

投資仲介はどうかというと、これは若干希望がある。もちろん、シンプルな株や国債の売買をいくら仲介しても大した稼ぎにはならないので、「地域に密着したきめ細かい支店網」は収益率の向上にはほとんど役に立たない。手数料をぶっこ抜くには、デリバティブを絡めてリスクを少し高めに設定した商品をどう売りさばいていくかが鍵になってくる。その意味では、ある程度リスキーな投資をする余裕のある地方の小金持ち(中小企業の社長とか)を取り込む上で、それなりの支店網は必要になってくるだろう。

ただし、今の都銀大手は既に数の上では全国に十分過ぎる数の支店を持っている。昨今の合併が投資仲介業務の拡大に役に立つ事はないだろう。どうせ金持ちの数など限られている。支店の数よりも、金持ちに食い込める優秀な営業マンの数こそが重要なのだ。

最後に自己資金による投資。これも合併によるメリットはない。一般的に、資金規模が大きくなるほどファンドの運用は難しい。10年国債を10億円買うのは一瞬で済むが、数千億円ともなればbidを出した段階でマーケットが動いてしまう。当然、最終的な買値は10億円購入時よりも高くなる。大規模ファンドほど取引にかかるコストが大きくなるのだ。他にも理由は色々あるが、図体がでかいファンドほど利益率が低い事は、マゼランファンドあたりを知っている人には納得してもらえるだろう。

このあたりをまとめると、今の都銀はみんなで仲良く決済銀行(スーパー地銀)への道を歩んでいるということになる。ただでさえ儲けが薄い分野なのに大銀行がよってたかってパイの奪い合いをしているわけで、過当競争の結果どういう結果になるかは大体見えている。都銀で働く人たちには申し訳ないが、彼らの給料は今後も下がり続ける可能性が高い。

投資・投資仲介業務を強化する欧米の銀行

もちろん、規模が大きければ即決済銀行というわけではない。シティバンクにしても、JPモルガン=チェースにしても、合併を重ねて巨大化している。ただし、このアメリカの2大ビッグバンクと都銀には決定的な差がある。それは投資銀行と合併することで投資仲介・自己投資業務を強化したということだ。

大体、シティバンクは規模の大きさの桁が違う。世界中に支店網を張り巡らし、海外送金などのシステムも完全に整っている。都銀は預金残高こそシティバンクを上回るが、決済システムの規模では比べ物にすらならない。投資仲介業務も合併したトラベラーズの強みがそのまま生きている。最近日本でへまをして業務停止処分を食らったが、これは日本でも投資仲介業務に力を入れていることの証明でもある。まだこの手のリスキーな投資には日本の客が慣れてないこともあり、この手のトラブルを100%避ける事は出来ないのだ。

JPモルガン=チェース(というより、JPモルガン)はエマージングマーケットに強みを持つ。クレジットリスクの管理もかなり高いレベルにある。アジア通貨危機の直前にJPモルガンが絶妙なタイミングで売り抜けたのは有名な話だ(余談だが、JPMorganが東南アジアからさっさと逃げ出したときに、(間接的に)売りつけた相手はチェースマンハッタンだったらしい。その当時はJPモルガンのトレーダーは鼻高々にチェースの間抜けっぷりを笑っていたのだが、数年たってJPモルガンがチェースに買収された結果、売り逃げたはずのアジアの不良債権がブーメランのように戻ってきてしまい憮然としたのだそうだ)。

とにかく腰の重い日本の銀行

では邦銀は?大半の銀行が海外業務は縮小している。野村證券はロンドンで頑張っているが(大物が辞めてからどうなったのかは知らないが)、銀行ほどの資金規模は望めない。そういえば最近は野村を買収するという話も聞かないのだがどうなったのだろうか。

融資業務に長けているとは到底思えないし、投資仲介業務もこれから立ち上げましょうというレベルだ。自己資金による投資もまるでやる気が見られない。ここ数年は「国債ディーリングで稼ぐしかない」という状況に追い込まれていたので、それなりのリスクも取って相当の稼ぎを挙げたはずだが(それが出来てしまうのだから、都銀はやはり人材の宝庫だ)、それは単に消去法でそうなっただけで、今後10年を見据えた経営戦略があったわけではない。

このあたりの腰の重さは、前回紹介したドイツ銀行とは対照的だ。

ドイツ銀行はブロイヤー(Breuer)氏が経営改革をぶち上げたのが1996年、その次の年には日本でもものすごい勢いで人材を引き抜きまくり、2000年までには債券市場でそれなりの地位を確立してしまった。日本の証券会社を入れてもベスト5には入っているだろう。

もちろん、都銀だって馬鹿ではない。今後は投資仲介業務がひとつの鍵になるという事くらい先刻承知だ。実際東京三菱銀行は5年位前から東京三菱証券(今は三菱証券のはず)にそれなりに力を入れてはいた。だが、結局どこの銀行系証券も大した成果を挙げていない。結局、親銀行のコネを使った取引しか出来ていないというのが実情ではなかろうか。

このあたりの腰の重さがどこから来るのかは良く分からない。しかし、少なくとも経営者の質の差は歴然だ。

余談になるが、ドイツ銀行頭取(今は微妙に失脚してNo.2になっている)のブロイヤー氏という人は立志伝中の人物で、ドイツ銀行にはメールボーイとして入社している(社内の郵便物や書類を配送する役目。限りなくただのバイトに近い)。そこからいわゆる正規の社員として正式採用され、会社からの奨学金で博士号までとり(詳しくは知らないが、メールボーイとして採用された当時は高卒だったはずだ)、とうとうあの大銀行のトップまで上り詰めた人物なのだ。写真で見ても迫力が違う。

それに比べると都銀の頭取はどうにも影が薄い。合併行のトップだから仕方のない部分はあるし、あの人材豊富な都銀でトップに上り詰めたのだから当然かなりの才能の持ち主なのだろうが、Breuer氏を含め世界の銀行のエグゼクティブクラスと比べるとモヤシ感が漂う事は否めない。

大体、ブロイヤー氏が改革に邁進する2000年前後、邦銀の頭取は「いくらリストラしても株価が下がってしまえば帳消しになってしまう。お手上げだ。」みたいなコメントを繰り返し出していた。「株価が下がって損を出すのはてめえの投資戦略がへぼかっただけのことだろうが」と、そのコメントを聞いた当時は心底あきれたのだが、そういうメンタリティでは投資業務への船出など望むべくもない。


上のような事を考えていくと、都銀の未来には今のところ国内の決済業務に集中するスーパー地銀への道しか見えてこない。決済業務というのは言われた事を間違いなくこなせればそれで十分な「面白みの少ない」仕事だ。年収1000万円超の優秀な人材をつぎ込むビジネスではない。

筆者は都銀に多くの優秀な人材が死蔵されている事を良く知っている。随分外資系に引き抜かれたはずなのに、金太郎飴のごとく代わりの人材が出てくることにあきれもした。それだけに、このまま都銀がその人材もろとも沈んでいくのを見るのは少し寂しい思いがする。

本日のまとめ

世界的に融資業務は今後縮小に向かう。

欧米の銀行(地銀を除く)は投資・投資仲介業務に力を入れている。

日本の銀行はこれらの業務で決定的に立ち遅れている。

現状の合併とリストラの行く先にはスーパー地銀しかない。

どの銀行も決済業務を強化しているため、ただでさえ薄い利幅が競争で更に薄くなり、都銀の収益力は改善の見込みが立たない。

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Comments

こんにちは~馬車馬さん。
今日は暑いですね~残暑ってやつですか。

>Breuer氏を含め世界の銀行のエグゼクティブクラスと比べるとモヤシ感が漂う事は否めない。

ここ10年ほど、独断専行をやってくれる人が見当たらないですね。保守的なんですかね?理由はわかりますが・・・
あっちこっちに振り回されたら、良いネタも腐ります。ゴルフ場とか。(笑い)

毎度くだらない書き込みですみません。

Posted by: 次郎 | September 21, 2004 at 01:25 PM

次郎さんこんにちは。いえいえ、くだらないなんてとんでもない。

腐ってますねー、ゴルフ場。そして外資にさらわれる・・・芸のない話です。野村あたりは結構ノウハウも持ってると思ってたんですが、あんまり名前を聞きませんね。日本ではあんまり積極的にやってないんでしょうか。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 23, 2004 at 10:32 AM

こんにちは。

収益力向上のための合併ではなく、単に、(外資等からの)合併阻止のための合併ということなのでしょう。不良債権が少なく、公的資金導入もない東京三菱銀行の規模は、CITIバンクからみれば株式交換で簡単に合併できる資産規模と言えるからです。

今後、各企業も外資からの合併対策をどうするかということが命題となると思います。この点だけを捉えると、株価は上昇する(経営者が上げたいと思って上がるとは限りませんが)かもしれないと思っています。

しかし、三井住友銀行の西川さんが仕掛けているUFJの株主に有利な合併比率は実は三井住友の株主に不利で、問題はないのだろうかと考えているのですが、取り上げている所は皆無ですね。きっと、皆、三菱が嫌いということなのでしょう。

Posted by: yohsshi | September 26, 2004 at 05:11 PM

こんにちは。馬車馬さん。
トライバックというアイテムを使ってみました。
アホの駄文と事実は黙許してください。(笑)

Posted by: 次郎 | October 15, 2004 at 01:43 PM

いつも面白くよまさせてもらってます。ところで日本の銀行が投資下手なのはなぜなんでしょうか、情報収集力?決断の遅さ?数学的知識の不足?
十分な資金もってて人材も集められるであろう日本の銀行が伝統的に投資に弱い理由がいつもニュースを見ていてよくわからないのですが。

Posted by: a2c_s_1980 | January 16, 2005 at 05:14 PM

a2c_s_1980さん、はじめまして。コメントありがとうございます。(返事遅れてすいません・・・)

都銀の投資下手なのですが、個々人のトレーダーの質が低いということは必ずしも無いと思うんです。実際、ここ5年間くらい都銀の国債ディーリングはしこたま儲けてますし。(不良債権処理の影の立役者です)直接話していても優秀な方が多いです。

むしろ、本文でも書いたことですが扱うポートフォリオの規模が大きすぎて儲けようが無いということが1点。そしてそれ以上に、都銀のバランスシートの負債サイド(要するに預金)が元本保証の預金に偏りすぎているということがあるのだと思います。例えば、銀行の預金が全て5年満期の定期預金で、5年金利(国債利回)が1%とした場合、銀行はまず元本保証をするためにポートフォリオの95%を国債購入に振り向けなければなりません。自由に投資できるのはわずか5%なのです(これは単純かつ極端な例で、実際に銀行がそうしているわけではありませんが、そのくらい縛りのきつい投資スタイルを取らざるをえないということです)。

その意味では、銀行の投資下手は預金者、ひいては日本人の投資下手を反映しているだけなのかもしれませんね。

あ、ただ、デリバティブ関係では知識不足は歴然です。そもそも、最先端の理論はまずアメリカの投資銀行で生まれ、そのあと学会で発表され、それから数年して本になり、さらに数年して和訳されます。もちろん優秀な方は学会誌も当たっているでしょうが、平均値で見るとものすごく立ち遅れていると思います。

ではでは、今後ともよろしくお願いします。しかし、池袋いいですね。最近行く機会が無いのが残念ですが、ジュンク堂と光麺には行かねば。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 18, 2005 at 09:02 AM

お返事ありがとうございます。
投資に使える資金が元本保証の預金に偏りすぎているっていうのは私みたいな素人は考えたこともなかったので新鮮です。

北海道銀行みたいな地方銀行は東京の銀行に運用丸無げしてる。なんて話しも聞いたことがあったのでトレーダーの質の問題なのかなーと思っていたので。

でもデリバティブの知識不足してるってのは残念ですね。考え方のベースになってる確率微分方程式は日本人の伊東さんが考えたのに。まあ、戦中にオペレーションズリサーチすらできてなかった国から戦後まもなくこんな理論が出たっていうほうがよっぽど不思議ではあるのですが。

Posted by: a2c_s_1980 | January 19, 2005 at 03:36 AM

あ、確かに地銀(や他の地方金融機関)の運用能力は結構ひどいです。君たちリスクって言葉を知ってる?というレベルのトレードもちらほら。で、タイとかアルゼンチンで盛大に地雷を踏むわけです。

ただ、たまに自分が勉強した金融理論が小理屈に思えてしまうような根性の座ったディールをする人もいて、なかなか楽しかったですね。ネタ的には面白いので開陳したいんですが、さすがにやばいのでぐっと飲み込んでます。

角谷さんにしても、伊藤さんにしても、日本の数学者は日本国内に活躍の場が無いですよね。なぜなのかがどうも良く分からないのですが・・・

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Posted by: cspreyvl | January 25, 2017 at 01:37 PM

????
cbbnews24.com csgobooms.com csgojoybets.com incareersjobs.com b8b90.com
stcmidtenn.org thewill.in sakirkaratas.com apexturnkey.in medray.in applevalleymarket.com
cstopstake.com nsm.org.in vov-fc.com csgohugepots.com eaglesapparelshop.com
mymobileappmobiappssub2016.com sbppl.org gracedental.in kehulin.com
cheappricetoyou2015.com vamortgageloantexas.com doitacdoanhnghiep.com danhhotgay.com
techimanage.com elmi.co upea.in esncordoba.org goal888cash.com fullebookz.com 2winde222.com
???

Posted by: cspreyvl | January 25, 2017 at 01:38 PM

????
cbbnews24.com csgobooms.com csgojoybets.com incareersjobs.com b8b90.com
stcmidtenn.org thewill.in sakirkaratas.com apexturnkey.in medray.in applevalleymarket.com
cstopstake.com nsm.org.in vov-fc.com csgohugepots.com eaglesapparelshop.com
mymobileappmobiappssub2016.com sbppl.org gracedental.in kehulin.com
cheappricetoyou2015.com vamortgageloantexas.com doitacdoanhnghiep.com danhhotgay.com
techimanage.com elmi.co upea.in esncordoba.org goal888cash.com fullebookz.com 2winde222.com
???

Posted by: cspreyvl | January 25, 2017 at 01:39 PM

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