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今週のThe Economist:銀行がギャンブラーになる日

原題:Banks: Trading wars (August 28th, 2004)
    Deutsche Bank: A giant hedge fund (August 28th, 2004)


日本の銀行は相変わらず不良債権の後始末に悩んでいるが、世界の銀行だって色々と悩みがある。今日はそんな話を。

The Economistの記事は、ざっとまとめれば投資銀行が最近自己資金での投資(ニュアンス的には投機といったほうが近いかもしれない)に積極的になっていることに警鐘を鳴らしたものだ。

特にThe Economistはドイツ銀行を槍玉に挙げて「投機に走る銀行」を描いているのだが、そのあたりから紹介していこう。

リスキーな投資に走る銀行

どの銀行もトレーディングのためのポートフォリオは2つに分かれている。一つは客のお金を預かって投資し、手数料を稼ぐ顧客勘定。もうひとつは銀行自身の資本を使って投資する自己勘定だ。記事によれば、ドイツ銀行は以前は顧客勘定(損益は全て客のものなので、銀行のリスクはない)が80%で自己勘定が20%だったのに対し、今は自己勘定が30%まで上昇しているという。また、銀行のVaR(Value at Risk:リスクの大きさを測る指標のひとつ)はここ2年間で倍以上に増えている。

ドイツ銀行がよりリスクの高い経営戦略にシフトしている事は上の数字だけでも明らかだ。ただ、これは別にドイツ銀行に限った話ではなく、米系の投資銀行は一般的にこの傾向が強い。1年間の銀行の経常利益の半分をたった一人のトレーダーがたたき出すことだって、それほど珍しいことではないのだ。

The Economistはこの傾向を様々な角度から批判している。例えば、これらの銀行は規模が大きいので、いわゆる”too big to fail”の原則が適用される。それを銀行自身も分かっているので、「もし投資に失敗しても国が助けてくれる。投資に成功すれば丸儲けだ」と、税金を当てにしたハイリスク投資に走っている、というもの。または、自己勘定での投資に力を入れる余り、顧客に対するサポートがないがしろになっている(実際、イタリアのParmalat(中田がいたチームの親会社)あたりはドイツ銀行を告訴しているらしい)こと、利益至上主義のあまり、違法すれすれの取引に手を出してイギリスのFSAに目をつけられていることなどなど。

なんだかもうドイツ銀行がROE(株主資本利益率)で25%を目標に高利益率を目指す戦略をとっていることそれ自体まで批判せんばかりの勢いだ(というか、間接的には批判している)。確かに、ROE25%というのは高い。世界に冠たるトヨタですら、10%に届いていなかったはずだ(世界的には、20%近くあれば優良企業)。ただし、言うまでもなく企業が利益を追い求めるのは当然のことなので、それが将来的に倒産なり、利益率の大幅低下なりを引き起こさない限り、批判されるべきものではない。

もうからない間接金融

では、ドイツ銀行のこの戦略には将来性があるのだろうか? なぜドイツ銀行はこんなハイリスク投資に乗り出したのだろうか? 他に利益率を高める方法はなかったのだろうか? このあたりを考えると、今世界中の銀行業界が直面する根本的な問題に行き当たる。

つまり、もうからないのだ。金融市場の整備発展に伴い、直接金融市場はどんどん拡大している。優良な企業は次々と融資から株式発行による資金調達に切り替え、残った優良企業には銀行のオファーが殺到する。当然利ざやは稼げない。ハイリスクだが利幅の大きいベンチャー企業は魅力的だが、ひとつひとつの融資案件の規模が小さすぎるし、ベンチャーキャピタルに比べれば銀行融資は使い勝手が悪い。第一、預かった銀行預金は元本を保証しなければならないので、そうそうハイリスクな融資に資金を突っ込むわけには行かない。

結局、ローリスクな企業は直接金融へ流れ、ハイリスクな企業には手を出せず、ミドルリスクな企業には多くの銀行が押し寄せて利ざやがめちゃくちゃ薄くなっている、という八方塞がりな状態になっているわけだ。


もちろん、融資だけが銀行業務ではない。銀行の利益は大きく分けて3種類ある。ひとつは振り込み手数料その他の決済業務からの利益。もう1つは融資による利ざや。そして3つ目が投資業務。投資仲介による手数料収入と(いわゆる証券業務)、自己勘定を使った投資の合計だ。

商業銀行の主力は最初の2つなのだが、決済業務は一般的には大した利益を生まないと言われているし、第一利益を伸ばす余地が少ない(ただし、実は決済業務は利益率が高い業務だとするリサーチもある。どこで見たのか忘れてしまったが、ご存知の方がいたら教えていただきたい)。2つ目の融資業務は上に書いたとおりジリ貧だ。証券手数料を稼ごうにもこれも世界中競争は激しく、普通の株や債券などを手がけていてもそうそう儲かるものではない(デリバティブ関係はモノにもよるがまだ儲かる)。そうなれば、あとは自己勘定で勝負を賭けるしかないのだ。

銀行経営はどこへ行くのか:ドイツ銀行の解答

実のところ、このような状況を頭に入れると、ドイツ銀行の戦略は非常にクリアだ。2001年から2003年にかけて、ドイツ銀行は融資額をほぼ半分にまで減らしている。それによって、全体の資産規模も5500億ユーロから4500億ユーロまで減らしている。The Economistも”incredible shrinking bank”と書いているのだが、これほど急速にバランスシートを縮小した銀行はほとんどないはずだ。

要するに、利ざやを稼げそうにない融資業務を縮小して身軽になり、投資業務(客の取引の仲介と自己資金での投資)に集中していこうというわけだ。The Economistも書いているが、Goldman Sachsのようなアメリカ型の投資銀行を目指すつもりであるらしい。思わず感心してしまうほど明快な戦略だ。成功しても失敗してもビジネススクールの良いケーススタディになるに違いない。

相変わらずこのジリ貧状態を脱出する答えを導き出せずにいる他の欧州系銀行に比べれば、ドイツ銀行が非難されるいわれなど全くないのだ。

いやー面白い記事だなーと思いながら読んでいたのだが、この記事を書いている当人には銀行の経営戦略の転換期という視点はまるでないらしく、「ハイリスク=悪」という単純な価値観でもって「銀行があまり危険な投資をしないよう、情報公開を徹底させるべきだ」みたいなことを書いて記事を〆ている。読んでいて思わず腰が砕けた。だから、そういう問題じゃないってば。


次回は、じゃぁ日本の銀行はどうなのよという話を少し。


本日のまとめ

ドイツ銀行など、欧州系の一部と米系の銀行はハイリスクな投資に経営の重点を移している。

その背景には間接金融から直接金融への構造変化があり、今はまさに銀行の経営戦略の転換期なのだ。

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Comments

素朴な疑問なのですが、The Economistが指摘するように、「『もし投資に失敗しても国が助けてくれる。投資に成功すれば丸儲けだ』と、税金を当てにしたハイリスク投資に走っている」なんてことがあるんでしょうか(クルーグマンも似たようなことを言っているように、同様のことを言う経済学者は多いのですが)。

だいたいどの国でも、銀行が破綻すれば当局・マスコミから経営者はぼろくそに叩かれますし、刑事告発されることもめずらしくないわけですから、経営者が税金を当てにしてハイリスク投資に走るというのがピンと来ないんですよね。預金者が税金を当てにして、ハイリスク投資を行っている結果として高金利を付けている預金に金をつぎ込むのは腑に落ちるのですが・・・。

Posted by: bewaad | September 08, 2004 at 05:26 AM

エコノミストの記事は私も読みました。
「中々ドイチェもやるね。痛快」と思っていましたら、私も結びでズッコケました。(笑い)

次は、いよいよ国債や為替スワップのお話ですか?

Posted by: 甚六次郎 | September 08, 2004 at 01:42 PM

Bewaadさん:

うーん、結局、ぼろくそに叩かれることによるマイナスの効用などを定式化するのが難しいので、その辺りが議論に入ってきにくいという部分はあるのでしょうね。

そもそも、経済学の一般的な考え方はForward-lookingですから、過去にその経営者がどんなことをしようが、これから利益をもたらしてくれると予想できるなら、その経営者を雇うことが合理的だという判断になりがちなわけです。

「サルをヒトにしたもの」でも書いた話ですが、実際は人間は「理不尽に」執念深いので、必ずしも理論の予想通りには動かないということでしょうね。

それと、経営者レベルでは叩かれたりという事はあるでしょうが、目立たない部下クラスであれば、2年後に会社がつぶれても今年のボーナスを稼ごう、というメンタリティはあるでしょうね。それでいろいろな会社を渡り歩いて各地で火事を起こした人は実際にいます。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 09, 2004 at 09:13 AM

甚六次郎さん:

いやぁ、一応金融政策の話なので、通貨スワップはテクニカルすぎるかなぁと。通貨スワップは日本で一時期生じたマイナス金利の説明を書くときにでも説明しようかと思っていたんですが、結局書く機会が見当たらないままなんですよね・・・

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 09, 2004 at 09:19 AM

こんにちは。はじめまして。数日前に来て、過去記事を読んでます。

5/11頃のヘッジファンド破綻騒動で、ドイツ銀行にも影響があるという噂が流れ、その後もドイツ銀行のデリバティブ商品について色々な話が飛び交っています。上の記事は、04年9月に書かれたものですが、今となってはEconomist誌の内容が正しかったのではないでしょうか?

Posted by: 平手 緑 | May 22, 2005 at 08:24 AM

平手さん、はじめまして。コメントありがとうございます。こうして古いエントリーにコメントをいただけるのはうれしいですね、自分が何がしかを蓄積できているようで。

確かに、色々騒がれてるみたいですね(あまり詳細は知らないのですが)。ただ、ハイリスク投資に乗り出した以上、この手の問題を避けて通ることは出来ないのだと思います。たまにこういうイベントで躓いても、平時にそれ以上の利益を上げていればいいわけですから。経営の失敗とは、この「利益の平均値」が見込みを下回った状態のことで、今ドイツ銀行がそこまでの危機に落ち込んでいるようには見えません(違ってたらすいません(汗))。

投資の成功失敗は結果論で語られることが多く、またそれをよしとするトレーダーも多いですが、本来は投資戦略の成功失敗は単なる運不運が混ざる投資の結果よりも、事前の見込みの妥当性で測られるべきだと思うんですよ。どうせフランスの他の銀行(socgenとかBNPparibasとか)はもっとジリ貧なんでしょうし・・・

Posted by: 馬車馬 | May 22, 2005 at 11:57 PM

ドイツ銀行がうまく切り抜ければリスク管理は大丈夫だったということですし、一方、破綻すれば問題だったとなるでしょう。経済学者と違い、私も馬車馬さん同様に結果しか見ませんから、ドイツ銀行の結果を見てみることにしましょう。

私見ですが、ドイツ銀行頭取がメッセンジャー出身というのが気になります。階層が低いことを問題しているはではありません。教養として歴史を勉強しなかったのではないかと思うからです。戦術を扱う場合に歴史は必要ありませんが、銀行頭取として戦略を扱う場合は歴史を知らないといけません。

馬車馬さんは「事前の見込みの妥当性」に言及されてますが、非常に難解な問題です。エコノミストが景気・会社業績を予想するときには「妥当性」で判断します。しかし、その妥当性というのは、予想する時点までに「積み重なった解釈」を元にしたものであって、数ヵ月後には変わってると思います。馬車馬さんも、その辺は分かられてるようにお見受けします。
で、問題は、私は「過去10年間に積み重なった妥当性」と「2010年頃の妥当性」とは異なると予想してるのです。そこが馬車馬さんと私との判断の違いだと思われます。

また、馬車馬さんは銀行の新形態について述べられてますが、銀行が新事業に乗り出す動きは昔からあったと思います。過去と現在では新事業の内容は違うと思いますが、経過・結末は一緒だと思います。

そういうわけで、最近は、イギリス経済史を色々見てます。この場合だと、18世紀後半から1930年頃のマーチャントバンクの歴史を調べればよいのだと思われます。
私は表面的にしか知らないので、また、よろしければマーチャントバンクについてBlogに書いて教えてください。お願いします。
長文失礼いたしました。

Posted by: 平手 緑 | May 23, 2005 at 02:50 AM

<追加訂正>
で、問題は、私は「過去10年間に積み重なった妥当性」と「2010年頃の妥当性」とは
「正反対になる」
と予想してるのです。

Posted by: 平手 緑 | May 23, 2005 at 02:54 AM

平手さん、コメントありがとうございます。

本文でも書きましたが、なんにせよドイツ銀行の戦略はクリアなので、成功しても失敗しても興味深いものになると思います。どうなるのか楽しみにしておきましょう。

2010年ごろに最適になる銀行ビジネス(ということでしょうか?)について私にはまるでアイデアがないのですが、本来はそこを読んでビジネスを展開すべきなのでしょうね。難易度は高いのでしょうが、得られる利益は最大になりそうです。

すいません、マーチャントバンクの歴史は全然知りません・・・むしろ教えていただきたいと(笑)。

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