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金融政策論議の不思議(18) ベースマネーをいじってインフレには出来ない

久しぶりに当ブログのメインコンテンツである金融政策について書くことにしたい。Bewaad氏との論戦シリーズも5回目になり、そろそろタイトルをつけるのが苦しくなってきた。

Bewaad氏からの論点は4つ。まず、金融政策の波及経路をどう考えるか、という点について。続いて日銀が銀行から大量の国債を買い上げたとき、銀行の投資行動はどう変わるのか、という点。3点目は、その銀行の投資行動は過小な自己資本の制約を受けているのかどうかということ。最後に、経済政策のもたらすゆがみについて。議論全体の構造は15回16回を参照していただくとして、今回はこのまま各論を考えていくことにしよう。

インフレ期待の起こし方

ここまで色々と議論をしてきたのは、究極どうやって日本経済にインフレを起こすかということだ。また、人々が近い将来にインフレになると予想すれば(期待インフレ率が上昇すれば)、実際にインフレも起こるということはほぼ事実として認められている。つまり、どうやって期待インフレ率に影響を与えるかがひとつのキーポイントになっている。特に、ベースマネーを増やすだけで期待インフレ率を上昇されることが出来るかどうかがここでの問題だ。

筆者の立場は「具体的にベースマネーがどうインフレ率に影響を与えるのかが説明できない以上、期待インフレ率は変化しない」という立場だ。これについて、Bewaad氏は『直接的な効果がないと証明されたわけではない』し、統計的にある程度の関係も認められるようだから(実際、Svnseeds氏のブログでベースマネーとマネーサプライにかなりきれいな相関関係があるという結果が出ている)、ベースマネーを増やすことでマネーサプライを増やし、ひいては期待インフレ率に影響を与えることは可能だ、と主張されている。

もし、人々が将来のインフレ率を合理的に予想するのであれば、政府は彼らに対して「こういう政策を実行するので近い将来必ずインフレ率は上がるんですよ」ということを説得力を持って説明できなければならない。さもなければ、第16回でスヴェンソン教授の言葉を引いたように、人々は「そんなんでインフレになるとは限らないじゃん」と考えるので、期待インフレ率は変更されない。「直接的な効果がないとは限らない」では説明としては弱い。

また、もし人々が合理的であるなら、「過去の統計からこういう関係が見つかったので今回もこうなります」という説明は意味がない。「Bygones are bygones」、過去に起こったことは(少なくとも直接的には)これからの予想には役に立たない、というのは合理的意思決定を考えるときのひとつの鉄則だ(注)。過去に起こったことが今回も起こることをはっきりと説明できなれば、その統計を将来予想に使うことは出来ないのだ。

だからこそ、筆者は「どうやって政府がインフレを起こすか」、その経路を考えることにこだわるのだ。

もちろん、人々が「非合理的に」インフレ率を予想するのであれば、筆者の考え方は成立しない。ただ、人々の期待が非合理的だというのはつまり「なんでもあり」な状態であり、議論としては成立しにくいのと、それなら日銀に頼るよりどっかから和製ゲッペルスみたいなのを連れてきてアジらせたほうが手っ取り早いように思われるので、あまりこのケースをまじめに考える必要はない気がする。


国債を売り払った銀行は次に何を買うのか?

日銀が銀行の持つ国債を買えば銀行は他の金融資産への投資を増やし、経済全体に金が回るようになるだろう、というのがBewaad氏(に限らず、いわゆるリフレ派の方々によく見られた)の主張だ。それに対する反論は17回で書いたが(国債を取り上げられた銀行が国債の代わりにリスキーな資産への投資を増やすはずがない、というもの)、それに対する再反論として、Bewaad氏は『銀行の経営陣にとっては馬車馬氏の指摘は合理的だが、株主にとっては合理的でない』とコメントされている。

このコメントは半分正しく、半分間違っている。これから銀行株を買おうとしている新規の投資家にとって、銀行のこのような戦略はまったく面白みがない。当然、銀行株購入は取りやめとなる。しかし、既存の株主はそうはいかない。もちろん、経営陣の戦略が気に食わなければ銀行株を売却してもいいのだが、「全額キャッシュの方がまだまし」という状況が実現してしまった段階で株価はそれを織り込んで低下してしまっているので、銀行株を売却しても株主は損を取り戻せるわけではない。

結局、株主は評価損を計上して銀行株を持ち続けた株主か、その辺りの事情を承知の上で格安で株を購入した新規株主の2種類になる。どちらの株主にとっても、この段階で「経営陣が最適な判断を下すことが自分にとっても得になる」状態なので、経営陣の「全額キャッシュ」という判断は追認されることになる。

つまり、株価が状況を織り込んで下がることによって、全額キャッシュポジションは株主にとっても合理的になるのだ。全額キャッシュのポートフォリオは説明を簡単にするための極端なファンタジーに過ぎないが、そのファンタジーですらここまで正当化できるのだという点に注目していただきたい。


銀行の自己資本は汚れているか?

上のポイントと関連しているが、銀行がバランスシートの都合上リスキーな投資に乗り出せない場合にも、日銀が銀行から国債を買いまくるという戦略は無効になる。これについては筆者は「銀行の自己資本比率は数字の上では悪くないが公的資金で水増しされている」「繰延税金資産による水増しもある」という理由から、銀行はリスキーな投資はまだ出来ない、とコメントした。それに対する反論再反論を経たBewaad氏のコメントは以下のとおりだ。

まず、銀行の政府保有株式だって売却可能なのだから、特別視する必要はないとのご意見に対して(詳しくはここここを参照)。まず、そもそも銀行が公的資金を導入せざるを得なかったのは、不良債権で思いっきり損をこいて自己資本が目減りしたので、埋め合わせるために新規の出資が必要だったからであり、かつ誰もめためたになってる銀行に出資などしたくなかったからだ。銀行が新規の出資を自由に受けられる状況が整っているなら、そもそも公的資金など必要ない。

Bewaad氏が例に挙げた横浜銀行だが、この銀行は一時期株価が死ぬほど下がったときに昔発行した転換社債の行使価格にヒットしてしまったので、転換社債の所有者が自動的に新規の株主になったという特殊な事情がある(このあたりはオプションの基礎知識が必要なので、読み飛ばしていただいてかまわない)。今でも、銀行が新規の出資者探しに苦労している状況に変わりはない以上、公的資金を抱えている銀行の自己資本比率は十分に割り引いて考えなければならないのだ。


もう1点は、繰延税金資産(詳しくはこちら)を問題視すべきかどうかについて。Bewaad氏は前回筆者が論拠とした金融審議会の報告書をひいて、『繰延税金資産だけを特別扱い』するのは間違いだ、と主張されている。会計の知識がない筆者としては、審議会の報告書の中での議論に白黒をつけることは出来ず、「結論として繰延税金資産の自己資本への算入制限が決まったのだからそちらが正しいのでは?」程度の理解しかしていないので、この点について直接反論することは避けたい(ただし、事の正否を抜きにしても、来年度から繰延税金資産は算入制限を食らう以上、それを割り引いて考えるべきだろう)。

しかし、もしBewaad氏のコメントを全面的に受け入れたとしても、結局「繰延税金資産以外でもバランスシートはいくらでも粉飾できるのだから、この問題だけを特に取り上げる必要はない」という主張は、筆者の「銀行の自己資本比率はあてにならない」という主張をむしろ補強するものでしかない。Bewaad氏は足利銀行の例も紹介されているが、これも自己資本比率というのがいくらでも操作可能な数字でしかないことを強調するものであって、Bewaad氏の本来の主張とは矛盾したものとなっている。


経済政策のゆがみ

財政政策は金融政策よりも大きなゆがみを経済にもたらすので避けるべきだ、という点について。

Bewaad氏は、問題のある財政政策の例として、『財政支出増加なり減税なりを行うのであればその具体的あり方はなんでもよいということになるので、全国の納税者の所得を上から順に並べ、順次所得税の免除を行なっていき、免除額の合計がX兆円になったところで終わりにし、それ以下の所得の人間は通常どおり税を徴収する、という財政政策であっても問題ないということとなる』と述べられている。

しかし、このような極端な金持ち優遇減税がむしろ経済のゆがみを正す可能性だってある。もし今の日本が極端に高所得者に重税を強いていた場合、むしろこのような減税の方が望ましいと言える。

つまり、「経済のゆがみ」を考える場合、今行おうとしている政策がもたらすゆがみの他に、今まで経済に蓄積されてきたゆがみの両方を考慮しなければならない。しかも、この例で行けば、高所得者からどの程度税金を搾り取るべきかについてはっきりとした法則があるわけでもない(それとも公共経済学ではこういう理論が発達しているのだろうか?)。国際比較だって究極的には役に立たない。とすれば、論点がどこまでも拡散していく可能性が高い。

もし、議論で取り扱う経済政策が決まっている場合(たとえば、消費税増税の是非など)には、まだこのような議論は成立の余地がある。しかし、この議論ではあらゆる財政政策が議論の対象になってしまう。これらの要素を考えると、議論の収拾がつかなくなる可能性は高い、と筆者は考える。

あくまでもこの議論は量的緩和の是非を問うものだ。財政政策の中身は議論の重要度としては高くないのではないか。重要性の低い部分はある程度単純化して議論をした方がまとまりがよくなるように思われる。


本日のまとめ

期待インフレ率を操作するには、人々にインフレ率が変わると確信できるだけの材料を提供しなければならない。

日銀が銀行から国債を買いまくっても、銀行がそれ以外のリスキーな資産へ投資を増やすと考えるのは無理がある。

経済の「ゆがみ」はもともと問題が複雑な上、客観的に取り扱うにはツールとなる理論が未発達だ。主要な論点でもなさそうだし、単純化してしまってよいのでは?

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Comments

注: 不完全情報を組み込んだモデルでは、Baysian Learningのように、過去の行動がこれからの行動・予想に影響を与えることがある。ただし、これらのモデルはここでの議論には特に関係がない。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | November 14, 2004 at 12:28 AM

素朴な疑問があるのですが、こういう議論のときって”量”が
問題にされますけど、”速度”についてはどうなんでしょう?
技術的にどうするかという問題を議論されているのかと
思いますが。。

Posted by: ひろ | November 14, 2004 at 02:17 AM

するどいご指摘です。実のところ、単純な理論(概念的に単純なだけで、構造は複雑ですが)では物価は経済状況に対して瞬時に調整されます。ですから速度は問題にはならないのですが、実際には物価はある程度時間をかけて調整されるものだというのが常識的な理解です。そこで、理論的に正しい考え方で「なぜ物価はゆっくりと調整されるのか」が今色々と議論されているのですが、まだ定説は固まっていません。

そんなわけで、どの程度の時間をかけて金融政策が物価に反映されるかは敢えて議論から外しています。とりあえず、私の立場からは「瞬時に調整される」と仮定しておいて、それでもベースマネーを増やすだけでは無意味だ、と説明できれば一番説得力がありますので。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | November 15, 2004 at 12:21 AM

ご返事ありがとうございました(^^
非平衡の状態の分析は、現在進行形の研究分野なんですね。

Posted by: ひろ | November 15, 2004 at 12:31 PM

はじめまして。
私は経済については素人なので、読んでいて疑問に思ったことがありまして、教えていただけないでしょうか?

お金をバンバン刷るという方法はいいとして、そのお金の使い道として「借金を返す」という選択肢はないのでしょうか?
現在財政政策が十分に行えない原因は巨額の借金であると認識しています。もしこの借金の引き受け先が政府内部(日銀)であると、事実上自分が自分に金を貸しているわけですから問題にはならないと思いますので、政府外部から借金しているのであろうと推測します。だとしたら、刷ったお金で借金を返せばお金を使用することは出来ますし、借金も増えないように思うのですが。

また、インフレターゲティングについての疑問ですが、これはデフレ解消を目指すと共に過剰インフレを抑制する目的も同時に持っていたのではなかっでしょうか?つまり(手段を問わず)インフレを引き起こしたときにコントロール不能になるのを避けるため、「日銀が無責任になるのはここまでですよ」と宣言する効果があったと記憶しているのですが。

また、私個人としましては現在まで
1.インフレターゲッティングを行う
2.インフレ推進の手段としてお金をバンバン刷る。
の2点を考えておりましたが、現在の日銀にはこの2項を実行する権限は無いのでしょうか?

Posted by: 鳳天 | December 08, 2004 at 11:27 PM

鳳天さん、コメントありがとうございます。

鳳天さんのお考えは、「財政政策を満足に出来ない理由は政府の負債が多すぎるからであり、日銀がお札を刷って国債を買い上げれば、政府は財政政策が出来るようになるはず」というものだとお見受けします。

実のところ、私もこの考え方に同感です。ただ、これは金融政策でしょうか?むしろ財政政策ですよね。少なくとも、野口旭さんという経済評論家の言葉を借りると、リフレ派とは「日本経済の長期低迷からの脱出に関して、決定的に重要なのは金融政策であるとする立場」だそうなのでhttp://hotwired.goo.ne.jp/altbiz/noguchi/031118/03.html
、日銀が国債を買うだけでは何の効果もない(その上で財政政策を実行して初めて意味がある)政策はリフレとは言えないでしょう。実際、リフレ派と呼ばれる人には財政政策に否定的な人が多いわけですから。

それに、数年前に日銀が国債の買いきりオペを増額したとき、政府は財政政策を全く拡大しようとしなかったわけです。もしリフレ派と呼ばれる方々が鳳天さんと同じお考えであれば、このときに日銀よりもむしろ政府・財務省の批判をすべきだったはずですが、そうした声はとうとう最後まで聞こえてきませんでした。それで、「財政政策抜きで、国債を買うだけでほんとに効果なんてあんの?」という疑問をこのシリーズではずっと書いてきたわけです。


それからインフレターゲットですが、実はこれには2つの異なる理論があります。ひとつは過剰なインフレを避けるというもの。これは今年のノーベル賞受賞者であるKydlandとPrescottが打ち立てた考え方で、私も基本的に賛成しています(もし議論の中にインフレバイアスとか、動学的不整合とかいう言葉が出てきたらこれです)。ただし、この考え方はデフレからの脱出という方向では使うことが出来ません。

もうひとつの考え方が「日銀がインフレを約束すればそれを経済は信じて実際にインフレが進む」というものです。上の議論と似ていますが、Kydland-Prescottの論文のコアである動学的不整合の考え方がないので、基本的に別物です。

こちらの議論で問題なのは、「日銀が現状から経済をインフレに出来る」と民間部門が考えなければ、インフレターゲットは画餅に終わるということです。ですから、まず日銀は「金融政策単体でもインフレを起こすことが出来る」こと、その方法を世間に向かって説明できなければ、インフレターゲットを採用できません。ですから、鳳天さんの2.が(財政政策抜きに)効果を持つことを証明できないと、1.は機能しないのです。

最後の文章にお答えするなら、権限はあるものの効果がない、というところでしょうか。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 09, 2004 at 11:46 PM

ご丁寧なご返答、ありがとうございます。

私は今までリフレ派の主張を読んできて正しいと思い、そして馬車道様の主張を読んで「リフレ派と本質的に同じ主張をしているのに非難しておられる。なんでやろ?」とずいぶんと違和感を感じたので質問させていただいたのですが、納得できました。
要するに「お金を刷って借金を返し財政出動を可能にする」という行為は財政政策であって、金融政策ではないので「財政政策を伴わない金融政策ではない」、従って、金融政策を主体と考えるのでは無く金融および財政の両政策を同時に行うべきである、ということなのですね。

私には信用確保手段のないインフレターゲットは無意味であると思えますので、インフレターゲットを採用するということはいかなる手段を用いても(たとえばお金を借金分、700兆円刷る)インフレを引き起こすという覚悟を明示する行動(当然財政政策を含む)がセットになっているものだとばかり思っていました。
また、お金を700兆円刷ってもインフレにならなかった場合は、それはそれで良いだろうと考えていました。なんといっても国の借金を0に出来ますし、その結果として財政政策はやり放題になります。つまり、インフレターゲットの成功と借金からのフリーハンドを両天秤に掛けれるわけです。まあ、実際には100兆円も刷って見せれば市場は信用しインフレが発生すると思いますが、もちろん「ためしに刷ってみる額」は経済システムの複雑系としての恒常性を動揺させうるほど十分に巨大な額でなければならないと思います。

Posted by: 鳳天 | December 10, 2004 at 02:51 AM

鳳天さん、コメントありがとうございます。

そうですね、確かに大差ないとも言えると思います。ただ、特にインフレターゲットを考える際にはこの違いが大きな意味を持ってきます。

そもそも、財政政策込みでインフレターゲットを行うのであれば、100兆円もお金を刷る必要など全くありません。やりすぎです。毎年20兆円ずつを数年続けるだけで、経済成長率はプラス4%です。これだけ公共投資(減税でも)をすれば、確実にインフレを起こすことが出来るでしょう。

しかし、これはインフレターゲットに対する日銀のコミットメント(信用)を全く保証しません。我々は日銀が単独ではインフレに出来ないこと、また財政政策をつかさどる政府・財務省に対してなんら強制力を持たないこと、更に、特に財務省は財政支出を減らしたいと思っていることを知っています。

ここから、「日銀が国債を買っても政府は財政支出を増やさない可能性が高い」ことを予想できます。そのような予想に対して、日銀は説得力のある答えを提示できません。日銀は政府に「支出を増やせ」と命じることはできないからです。

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ちょっと細かいツッコミになってしまって申し訳ないのですが、財政政策抜きで議論をした瞬間、鳳天さんの議論も「100兆円も刷れば・・・」と論理構成がずいぶん大雑把になってしまっていますよね。リフレ派と呼ばれる方々はこのあたりをもっと精緻に詰めていく必要があると思うのです。

そういう議論を全てすっ飛ばして日銀批判に走るリフレ派の学者さんにはやはり納得が出来ないわけです。下品な話ですが、特定の省庁の意向を反映しているのではと疑っているほどです。

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