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ニッポンの統計(3) 使えるGDP、使えないGDP

先週7-9月期のGDPが発表された。予想外に低いとかで各方面で慌てた人が結構いたらしい。2003年度下半期のGDPが良かったというだけで浮かれていれば慌てる羽目にもなる。特にいそいそと増税に向けて地ならしを始めていた財務省とかはどうするのだろうか。正直、景況感もつかみきれてない段階で「選挙が終わったから」というだけの理由で増税トークを始めたようにしか見えないのだが、もう少し真摯に経済動向を見つめてもらいたい。なんで今増税なのか。もう少し落ち着け。

さて、本当ならここでGDPの詳細をチェックして今後の景気動向を占ったりするのがオーソドックスな話の流れなのだろうが、そんなことはネットの内外でレポートがたくさん出回っているだろうし、わざわざここで改めて触れることもないだろう。そこで、これを機会に長らく放置していたGDP統計の説明を再開することにしたい。

前回、日米のGDPを比べると、日本のGDPはやたらとぶれが大きいという話をした(下図参照。日米ともに直近までアップデート)。

JP-US-GDP-Q.gif

アメリカのGDPは比較的マイルドに推移しているが、日本のそれは3%程度のぶれは誤差の範囲内という有様だ。冒頭で書いた「GDPがちょっと良くなっただけで浮かれてもしょうがない」という意味がお分かりいただけると思う。日本のGDPは、直近の景気動向を見極める指標としては、ぶれが大きすぎてほとんど役に立たないのだ。

では、なぜ日本のGDPはこんなにぶれが激しいのだろうか?とっかかりとして、以下のグラフを見ていただきたい。これは上のグラフとまったく同じ、日米の実質GDP伸び率のグラフだ。ただし、上のグラフは四半期ベースの伸び率だが、これは年次ベースでプロットしたものだ(以上、日本のデータは内閣府、アメリカのデータはBureau of Economic Analysisから)。

JP-US-GDP-A.gif

アメリカのデータと比べても、十分マイルドでリーズナブルな動きをしている。ぶれ幅自体もアメリカのGDPと大差ないし、橋本内閣(1996-98)の増税路線や銀行危機と共に景気が落ち込み、その後小渕内閣(1998-2000)で公共投資やりまくって復活し、小渕総理の死去とITバブル崩壊とともに息切れ、とストーリーも描きやすい(もちろん、ストーリーの描き方は人それぞれだが)。

つまり、日本のGDPは暦年データでは何の問題もない。どうやら問題は四半期データだけにあるということがここから分かるわけだ。


GDPのつくりかた

日本の四半期GDPの問題を説明する前に、まず日本のGDPがどのようにして作られているのか、簡単に説明しておこう。

基本的に、GDPは年に一度だけ作成・公表される。推計方法はかなり複雑で、2200品目近くについて、生産量とその使われ方(消費されたとか、在庫になったとか)、その過程での各種経費(輸送費とか)などを事細かにチェックして総生産量とその内訳を推計している。統計学者の間でもこの年次GDPは十分信頼できるものという評価が定まっているようだ。

しかし、この年次GDPの最大の問題点は速報性がゼロだということだ。たとえば、2003年度の年次GDPのデータが公表されるのは今年の12月になるはずだ。推計に必要なデータも膨大な量になるし、各企業・地方政府などもすぐに数字を内閣府に上げてくるわけではないので、このくらいのタイムラグが必要になってしまっているのだろう。

ただ、政府としても、民間の各企業なども、もっと早く、もっときめ細かな景気の動向が知りたいと思っている。年に1回、1年遅れのデータをもらうだけでは機動的な経済政策の実行など全く不可能だ。そこで、「年次GDPの予報値」のようなものが必要になってきたわけだ。それがGDPの速報値(QE、Quarterly Estimate)だ(それに対して、年次データは確報値と呼ばれる)。つまり、我々が新聞などで目にするGDPというのは、内閣府が「多分GDPはこのくらいになってると思いますよ」という予想値に過ぎないのだ。

しかし、問題なのは予報値を作ろうにも、年次GDPの計算に使うデータは当然使えない。そこで、なんとかGDPの元データに近い動きをしそうな統計を探すことになるわけだが、そうそう適当な統計が見つかるほど世の中都合よくは出来ていない。しょうがないので、まだそれでも使えそうな統計を持ってきて、それに大量の修正を加えてそれらしい推計結果を導くことになるわけだ。

特に無理やり感が強いのは民間消費支出の推計方法だ。年次GDPは基本的に「どれだけのモノが生産されたか」から推計するのだが、速報値を計算するときには「どれだけのモノが消費されたか」を示す統計から推計している。統計の着眼点がまるで違うのだ。いくら必死に修正しても、根本的な問題は解決のしようがない。

この予報値(速報値)の推計方法に色々と問題があるという話は次回にまわすことにして、問題なのは、この予報値が結果的に正しかったのかどうかチェックする方法がないということだ。天気予報であれば、3日もすれば予報が当たっていたか間違っていたかはすぐに分かる。その結果を元に予報プログラムを修正することも出来る。

しかし、このGDP速報値には正解がない。1年後に発表される確報値も年次データだけなので、その1年の間にどうGDPが動いたのかは分からない(GDP確報値にも四半期データはあるが、これは速報値を元にして年次ベースの確報値を四半期分割したものなので、実質的には全ての四半期データは速報値を基準に作られているわけだ)。

だから、速報値がどれだけ間違っているのかは誰にも分からないし、どう修正すべきかも分からない。もちろん、指針となるべき統計理論は色々とあるが、最終的には「統計の数字が実感と異なっているかどうか」というえらくあいまいな、感覚的な判断をするしかないのだ(これはGDPに限らず、経済統計一般に言える話)。

日本のGDPの場合、幸か不幸か、「速報値は実感にそぐわない」ことは誰の目にも明らかになっている。後は「どう改善するか」なのだが、その辺りの話はまた次回に。


本日のまとめ

日本の四半期ベースのGDPはぶれが激しすぎて使い物にならない。

ただし、年次データは十分に信頼性が高い。

四半期ベースのGDPがおかしいのは、GDPの速報値の計算方法に問題があるからだ。

とりあえず、財務省はもっとまじめに統計をチェックしよう(それとも、やはり株価が下がってから慌てるのだろうか)。


念のための追記:上でGDP速報は予想値に過ぎない、と書いたが、このような問題はあらゆる統計で多かれ少なかれ存在する問題だ(特にGDPで深刻な問題ではあるが)。このような問題を踏まえて、眉に唾して統計を見るのは大切だが、「予想値だっていうならその統計を見る意味ないじゃん」という全否定の態度は間違っている。直近のデータに振り回されるのは問題だが、データを読むことそれ自体が無意味だとは筆者は決して思っていない。

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Comments

なんか無茶苦茶書いてるな

生のデータで補正かけずに景気判断するバカなんて
そういねえよ

Posted by:   | November 21, 2004 at 05:43 PM

コメントありがとうございます。

まぁ、GDPにばりばり補正をかけられる人向けに書いた記事ではないですから、そのへんは大目に見ていただきたく(笑)。統計を扱う人にとってはこの記事は常識の範囲内ですから。

それに、補正云々以前の問題として、パブリックシグナルとしてのheadline figureがどうしても重視されてしまう傾向はぬぐいがたく存在します(「グリーンスパン議長の功罪」でも書いたことですが)。この記事の問題意識はむしろそちらにあります。

それにしても、_さんのおっしゃる補正とはどんなものでしょうね。ARとって伸ばす、というのではまるでrobustではありませんし、墓石あたりの項目を個別にチェックして行くやり方はrobustではありますが修正できる誤差は極小と言えると思います。現実的には、GDPの生データに補正をかけてまともな景気判断の具に供するというのは不可能ではないかと思っているのですが。

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