« 貿易黒字のチキンレース | Main | 実はまっとうな中国の経済政策 »

チキンレースのオッズを考える

前回の記事を読み直したらどうも尻切れトンボのような気がしてきたので、もう少し「結局、この先為替はどうなるのか」について書いてみたい(正直言って、相場の当てっこにはあまり興味がないので、筆者の予想自体はあまり気にしないで頂きたい)。

前回の記事を大雑把にまとめると、アメリカは巨額の貿易赤字をまかなうために海外から借金をする必要がある。逆に言えば、その他諸国はアメリカにモノを買ってもらうためにアメリカにお金を貸す必要がある。しかし、アメリカが借金をしすぎて返済できなくなるとみんなが考えると、一斉に借金の取立てが始まってドルが大暴落する恐れがある。でも、為替介入が続く場合、どうなるかはよくわかりませんね、ということだった。

・ベストシナリオ:アメリカが財政赤字を削減

理想的なシナリオは、アメリカが自ら消費を減らして、貿易赤字を削減することだ。特に、政府が財政支出を切り詰めるのが一番良い。そうすれば例え貿易赤字がなくならなくても、「将来的には返済の可能性はある」と判断されて通貨危機は起こらない。ただし、途上国にとっては輸出が減るので面白くない。

ただ、あのブッシュ大統領が「アメリカ経済と通貨価値の長期的な安定のために、財政支出を削減して経常収支赤字を減少させる」とか言うのだろうか。あの顔で。多分しゃべり終わる前に舌を噛む。賭けてもいい。正直、筆者の中の感性とかそういう部分がこのシナリオを否定している。

というわけでこのシナリオは没。


・シナリオ2:ドル安の緩やかな進行

もしアメリカが財政赤字削減に乗り出さず、いいペースで貿易赤字を出し続けた場合、おそらく諸国の民間部門はドル資産への投資を手控え始める。というより、日本のように貿易黒字が増えてもアメリカへの貸付を増やさない。こうするとアメリカは輸入しようにもその代金を調達できなくなるので、輸入が減る。このとき、アメリカ人が輸入を減らすまでドル安が進む(アメリカ人にとっては、輸入物価が高くなる)。要は、政府が支出を減らす代わりに消費者が減らすだけで、上のシナリオとはそれほど大きな差はない。

しかし、このシナリオが成立するのにはひとつ条件がある。それは、アメリカに輸出をしている各国が為替介入をしないこと。

ドル安が進んでアメリカが輸入を減らせば、困るのは輸出国だ。日本だって輸出が伸びているからなんとか景気が持ちこたえているわけで(輸出が減速したら早速雲行きが怪しくなったが)、ここでアメリカが輸入を減らすのは困る。こう書くと「今日本は中国にどんどん輸出してるんだからアメリカなんか大して問題ないだろ」と言われそうなのだが、結局中国がアメリカに大量の輸出をしているわけで、中国が製品をアメリカに輸出できなくなればその部品を日本から輸入する必要もなくなる。結局アメリカ様々な状況には変わりないのだ。

だから、どの輸出国も為替介入をしてドル高に誘導し、自国の対米輸出を維持する誘惑に駆られる。そこをみんなでぐっとこらえて世界経済の安定のために輸出の減少に耐えなければならないのだが、困ったことに抜け駆けをする奴がいる。中国だ。固定相場制とは、要は今の為替レートを維持するためには無限にでも介入し続けます!と宣言するのと同じなのだ。

これを放置すると、例えば日本の場合、円高ドル安が進むのと同時に円高人民元安が進み、中国へも輸出がしづらくなる。他の途上国の場合、更にお買い得になった格安中国製品がどっと国内市場に流れ込んでくる。これはたまらない。次回説明するが、金融システムの脆弱な途上国では貿易赤字は危険なのだ。となれば、途上国に残された手はドル買い介入の再開しかありえない。

というわけで、中国がドルペッグを続ける限り、各国政府も介入を続ける可能性が高く、結果としてドル安はそれほど進まない可能性が高い


更に書くと、アメリカの側にも「ドル安OK」と言いづらい事情がある。アメリカにお金を貸すことは、ドル高に賭けることでもある。もし貸した金が満期を迎えるまでにドル安が進んでいた場合、金利収入なんぞ余裕で吹き飛ぶほどの損失を出すことになるわけだ。だから、「この先ドルが安くなりそうだ」と予想した投資家はアメリカへの貸出を控えるようになる。

そもそも、 [海外からの借入額<貿易赤字] という状況から、貿易赤字を減らして [海外からの借入額=貿易赤字] というバランスを取り戻すためにドル安が進むのだ。それなのに、ドル安が進むと更に海外からの借入額が減ってしまう。これではいたちごっこだ。だからこそ、ブッシュ大統領に限らず、歴代の大統領は基本的に「強いドル」というスローガンを堅持してきたわけだ。

そんな訳もあって、緩やかなドル安の進行というのはますます考えにくい。アメリカにとっては、だらだらドル安が進むくらいならすぱっと下げてとっとと底入れ・反発(ドル高)してくれた方がありがたい。


・シナリオ3:チキンレース続行

為替介入というのはどうも「一時しのぎの小手先の対応策」といった印象があるのだが、そうではない。民間が貸そうとしないアメリカの輸入代金を代わりに国が貸し出して、貿易黒字を維持するのが介入の本質だ。だから、各国政府が介入し続ければ、アメリカは問題なく巨額の輸入を継続できるわけだ。それを考えると、「アメリカの双子の赤字」というのはマスコミが騒ぐよりも安定的なのだ

ある意味、これは5年位前に銀行がやっていた追い貸しに近い。あの頃、都銀は借り手企業に倒産されてしまうと困るので、利払いもままならなくなった企業に利払いの金を貸してやるというようなことをやっていた。これは問題の先送り以外の何者でもないのだが、少なくとも追い貸しを続けている間は企業は倒産しない。アメリカについても同じことが言えるわけだ。

ただし、結局アメリカが借金を膨らませていくことには変わりない。いつか必ず「さすがにアメリカはもうやばいから、輸出が減るのも覚悟でアメリカに貸すのは止めよう」と考える政府が出てくる。もしかしたら、その分の対米貸出減少は他の政府が肩代わりして、その後も何事もなく各国は輸出を続けられるかもしれない。この場合、貸し出しを止めたチキンな国は輸出減少による不景気に泣くことになる。

しかし、もしかしたらこの政府が貸し出しを止めた時に「おれもやばいと思ってたんだよ」とばかり次々と貸し出しを止める国が出てくるかもしれない。こうなると悲惨だ。最終的に全ての国が一斉に貸し出し(=介入)を止め、ドルは暴落する。チキンレースでみんな仲良く海にダイブする瞬間だ。間違いなく歴史の教科書に載るほどの恐慌になる。

いつ、何をきっかけにこうなるのかは誰にも分からない。


で、現実的なシナリオは

上で書いたように、最初の2つのシナリオは当面成立する可能性が低い。ベストシナリオは最短で4年後。シナリオ2はとりあえず中国が固定相場制を止めるか、大幅な元の切り上げを実行してから(確か「来年の夏ごろを目処になんらかの改善策を出す」と中国政府がアメリカ政府に約束した、というような記事を見たことがあるのだが、よく覚えていない)。というわけで、これらの要素に動きが出るまでは、ドル安にはベットしにくいなぁというのが筆者の感覚だ。ドルショートしたところでまた「クレージー」な介入でもされた日には泣くに泣けない。

当面はシナリオ3、その後でベストシナリオかシナリオ2に移行。そうなる前に岸壁からダイブする羽目になったら運が悪かったということであきらめる、というのが各国政府の(無意識のうちの)戦略ではないだろうか。


本日のまとめ

まさかブッシュが財政赤字削減なんて考えるとは思えない(根拠なし)。

中国の固定相場維持が続く限り、途上国はドル買い介入を止められない。

とすると、当面はチキンレースを継続して(あまりドル安は進行しない)、状況が変化したらもう一度考え直す、という辺りが落とし所?

追記:念のために書きますが、ここでのコメントはあくまでも皆さんの投資判断の参考に資するためだけのもので、この記事に基づいた投資で損失を出されても筆者は責任を負えませんのでということでよろしくお願いします。まぁ、ここまで神経質に書く必要もないと思うんですが。

履歴:「シナリオ3:チキンレース続行」の直前に3段落を追加。ちょうど極東ブログさんが似たようなネタをやってらっしゃったのでトラックバック(11月25日)。

|

« 貿易黒字のチキンレース | Main | 実はまっとうな中国の経済政策 »

Comments

納得、納得です(^^

馬車馬さんがいいたいこと書いてくださるので、為替関係の
エントリは紹介物で十分になってます。

ほんとはこういうことを、新聞が書いてくれるとしょうもない
騒ぎが起こらなくて、安心してみんな暮らせると思います。

それまでは、ネットで補完しましょう(^^

Posted by: ひろ | November 24, 2004 at 12:28 PM

馬車馬さんの分析にアグリーです。外為特会とこれを一時バックファイナンスした日銀の組み合わせは、対米ロンバートではないか、と思っています。以前のUFJ・ダイエーのような関係でしょうか。日本は物言わぬメーンバンクでしょうから、恐らくメーン寄せされかねません。日本政府が最大の貸し手として、かつての橋本首相のような露骨な言い方はともかく、何とか財政の健全化を促して欲しい、と願うのはやっぱり甘いですかね(笑)。

Posted by: 匿名記者 | November 25, 2004 at 02:05 AM

ひろさん、コメントありがとうございます。まぁ、新聞記事には長すぎるかもしれませんけど。週刊誌とかであればこういう記事もあったりするんでしょうかね?

ともあれ、自分の文章にわずかなりともニーズがあるというのはうれしいことです。今後ともよろしくお願いします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | November 25, 2004 at 08:52 AM

匿名記者さん、コメントありがとうございます。

ロンバートよりは自由度が高いと信じたいところですが、むしろ中国が実質的にロンバートかもしれませんね。為替がレンジ外れそうになったら自動的に介入するわけですし。

債権者としては財政赤字何とかしろや、と言いたい所ですが、一方で輸出先としてはむしろ・・・というあたりがジレンマですよね。それに、こと国際金融の場合(というよりSovereign Debtの場合)、貸し手よりも借り手の方が立場が上になってしまうのも辛いところです。

メーン寄せはマジ勘弁、と言いたいところなのですが、実際に他国が外貨準備をドルから他通貨にシフトさせ始めたら、日本は最後までドル買いの協調介入に付き合いそうな気もします・・・これってメーン寄せ以外の何者でもないような。やだなぁ。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | November 25, 2004 at 09:13 AM

今更なコメントなのですが。
対米黒字で余ったドルの使い道として、米国債などを買う以外にも米国内の不動産や米国企業の株などを購入するという手もありますね。
レノボがIBMのパソコン部門を買収したり、といったこともそうです。
日本でも90年頃まではアメリカの不動産投資などがブームになってまして、私の父のような日本のサラリーマンも、アメリカに小さなアパートを買ったりしてました。
現在アメリカの資産のうちどの程度が外国によって所有されているかわかりませんが、以外に伸びしろが大きいのかもしれず、国債発行額が減っても別のもので吸収できるのかもしれません。

結局最終的にどうするかは、アメリカ自体の判断になってくるような気もします。

Posted by: のびい | October 09, 2005 at 07:16 PM

のびいさん:

そのあたりは結局各国の民間企業がどれだけ対米投資に活発に関われるか(リスクが取れるか、アメリカ市場で勝負をかける気があるか、などなど)にかかっていると思います。現状では民間の対米投資は盛り上がっているとはいえず、その結果として各国の外貨準備のつみあがり=米国債購入という流れが出来てしまっているわけですし。

まあLenovoにしてもすでに悲観論が出たりしていますし、この手の投資は水物なので大変でしょうね。特に対米投資の経験が浅い途上国は。こういう時に日本がファンドをがしがし作ってアジアの資金の受け皿になる(そしてアメリカに投資)というのも悪くないような気がします。日本の銀行預金と違ってリスクが取れるので、利幅が大きいかな、と。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | October 13, 2005 at 01:21 AM

不勉強ですみません。民間の方がリスクに敏感なので既に引っ込んでしまって各国政府がささえている状況なんですね。しかし対米黒字は別に政府の懐に入っているわけではないので政府は国内で国債を発行し、その金で米国債を買うということになるんでしょうか。まあそうなると、もう米中関係はある意味、もう切ってもきれない関係になってしまっているわけですね。

Posted by: のびい | October 15, 2005 at 06:54 PM

ついにドル安が来たのでしょうか。

http://www.nikkei.co.jp/news/kaigai/20060502AT2M2900401052006.html

Posted by: のびい | May 02, 2006 at 09:23 PM

のびいさん、コメントありがとうございます。

よく見たら半年前にいただいたコメントにリプライしてませんでした。

まず上のコメントですが、おっしゃるとおりです。民間部門が海外に投資をしたがらないなら、政府がその資金を吸収して代わりに投資するしかありません。その意味では一蓮托生です。ただし、相手はあの中国ですから、日本のドル防衛の努力にfree rideして真っ先にドルを売り払う可能性も無きにしも非ずですが・・・。

現状のドル安ですが、対円で見る限りこの程度のドル安は調整というべきものだと思います。むしろ今までが動かな過ぎです。トヨタの奥田会長は政府に介入を要請とか寝言を言っていたようですが、この程度の円高は何の問題もないでしょう。上のエントリーでは主に各国政府の介入を予想して円安ホールドの予想を立てましたが、日本についてはその後景気が回復してこの介入ストーリーは消滅しつつあります。ただ、ドル安=人民元安ですから、中国製品と競合する他のアジア諸国はどこかで介入を迫られることになるとは思うのですが。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | May 10, 2006 at 07:11 PM

うーん、いまだに円高=絶対悪なんですかね・・・
でも円高なら海外からの原材料費は安くすむしガソリンだって重油だって安くあがるんです。日ごろ資源小国とか言ってるんだから誰か一人ぐらい喜んどけと。

昭和天皇陛下は円が高くなるのは悪いことだけではないよ、とおっしゃったことがあるそうですが、科学者としての素養がそういう部分に出てるんでしょうね。

Posted by: SLEEP | May 19, 2006 at 03:07 PM

SLEEPさん、コメントありがとうございます。

まぁ、輸出業者にとっては円高は絶対悪なのでしょう(笑)。で、日本全体では輸出額の方が多い以上、平均値としては円高嫌いな発言が主流になってしまうのかもしれませんね。

基本的には、景気が悪いときの円高は困りますが、今のように景気が順調ならば円高が進んでも全く問題ないわけで、今の日本がこれを問題視する必要は全く無いように思いますね。むしろ、もう少しドル安が進んでアメリカの経常収支赤字を減らさないといかんわけで。アメリカが破綻して真っ先に困るのは大債権国日本ですからね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | May 21, 2006 at 02:26 AM

馬車馬さまお返事ありがとうございます。

どうも、日本人は悲観的すぎじゃないかと思うんですよね。製造業にしたって輸出におんぶにだっこってのは、今日び少ないはずです。さもなきゃとっくに潰れてるでしょう。円とドルの関係というのは広い意味で言って自然現象のようなもので、一々文句をつけてたって仕方ないでしょうに、と。

ああ、奥田さんもそんなことは充分承知の上で記者がそう聞いてきたらこう応えるという、なにかフォーマットがあるのかもしれませんね。

Posted by: SLEEP | May 21, 2006 at 03:05 AM

SLEEPさん、コメントありがとうございます。

確か今でも日本の輸出業の損益分岐点の平均はドル100円台前半ではなかったかと思いますから、当面深刻な問題には成りようが無いですね(逆に言うと、今までの儲かりっぷりが半端ではないわけで)。

まぁ、奥田さんとしても「まだまだ大丈夫」とか言ってしまうとそれが投機的円買いの材料になりかねないから、という意識があるのかもしれません。それにしても介入要請は言いすぎだと思いますが(恥ずかしいからやめれ、と)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | May 21, 2006 at 09:44 PM

昔の記事を発掘してみるテスト。結果は「みんな仲良く海にダイブ」「歴史に残るほどの恐慌」だということでしょうか。国会の様子などを見ていると実はたいしたことないんじゃないかなーなどと思ってしまいますが。

それにしても、アメリカがコケてこんなに迅速大規模に日本に影響が出るというのが今ひとつピンと来ないのです。数字を見ても日本の総所得に占める貿易黒字はそんなに大きくなさそうに見えるものですが・・・

Posted by: tackman | January 15, 2009 at 05:38 PM

tackmanさん、コメントありがとうございます。

なんとも懐かしいエントリーです。派手にダイブしましたねぇ。まぁ、ドルの投げ売りが起こらなかっただけまだマシだったような気もしますが。

日本のGDPに占める輸出入の割合はそれほどでもないんですが、成長率に占める寄与度が非常に高いのが問題でして・・私もこのところ碌にアップデートしていないんですが、貿易黒字分をのぞくとゼロ成長というのが最近の日本経済の基本パターンだったと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 20, 2009 at 08:24 AM

Its like you read my mind! You appear to know a lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you can do with some pics to drive the message home a bit, but instead of that, this is wonderful blog. An excellent read. I'll certainly be back.

Posted by: best dating sites | January 15, 2015 at 10:00 AM

Usually I don't read article on blogs, however I would like to say that this write-up very pressured me to try and do so! Your writing style has been amazed me. Thank you, quite nice article. www.blogesaurus.com quest protein bars

Posted by: quest nutrition Bars uk | January 21, 2015 at 12:07 PM

I couldn't resist commenting. Very well written! blogesaurus.com quest protein bars

Posted by: quest bars buy online australia | January 21, 2015 at 10:58 PM

I loved as much as you'll receive carried out right here. The sketch is tasteful, your authored material stylish. nonetheless, you command get bought an edginess over that you wish be delivering the following. unwell unquestionably come more formerly again as exactly the same nearly a lot often inside case you shield this increase. blogesaurus.com quest protein bars

Posted by: quest bar wholesale uk | January 23, 2015 at 10:00 PM

I am genuinely happy to read this website posts which contains plenty of valuable data, thanks for providing these statistics.

Posted by: sealing travertine tile floors Isleworth FL | January 30, 2015 at 08:55 AM

Hello there! This post could not be written any better! Looking at this post reminds me of my previous roommate! He constantly kept preaching about this. I will send this post to him. Fairly certain he'll have a good read. Thank you for sharing!

Posted by: mold tests | January 30, 2015 at 01:39 PM

menage object may symmetrical care technologist. Discovering your own beginning. Be destined your machine protected. If you stimulate a succeeder creature to do with floating phones. too, when selecting jewellery, can swan you everything you impoverishment, it may seem to set the time residual environment to Nike Air Max Black Friday 2014 Nike Free Run Black Friday 2014 Nike Free Run Black Friday Sale off the product is a good facial expression. tumble-flops are a hot trade good in time period of the education easier and to a greater extent svelte. A peachy way to work up contractile organ, try losing any humoring delineate. To fair your room scraps, lawn fixings and shoot clippings from elsewhere elsewherein your replication, inspiration it

Posted by: Polo Ralph Lauren Black Friday Deals | January 30, 2015 at 03:59 PM

Great site. Plenty of helpful information here. I am sending it to several buddies ans additionally sharing in delicious. And certainly, thanks to your effort!

Posted by: Atlas Chalet Problems Cobb | January 30, 2015 at 07:23 PM

I pay a visit day-to-day a few sites and websites to read posts, however this blog presents feature based articles.

Posted by: how to replace heat pump | January 30, 2015 at 08:34 PM

Unquestionably imagine that which you said. Your favorite reason seemed to be at the web the simplest thing to take into account of. I say to you, I definitely get annoyed whilst other folks consider issues that they plainly do not understand about. You managed to hit the nail upon the highest as smartly as defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people can take a signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thanks

Posted by: Squirrel Removal Service Mississauga | January 30, 2015 at 08:55 PM

Hi there, always i used to check web site posts here in the early hours in the morning, as i enjoy to find out more and more.

Posted by: Window Blinds Shades Surrey | January 31, 2015 at 03:48 PM

Asking questions are really fastidious thing if you are not understanding something totally, except this paragraph presents good understanding even.

Posted by: Package Shipping Companies Aldergrove | January 31, 2015 at 04:37 PM

Hi there are using Wordpress for your site platform? I'm new to the blog world but I'm trying to get started and create my own. Do you require any html coding knowledge to make your own blog? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

Posted by: Window Coverings For Sliding Patio Doors Surrey | January 31, 2015 at 05:52 PM

Hi there mates, its impressive post on the topic of cultureand fully explained, keep it up all the time.

Posted by: Debt Charities Vancouver | January 31, 2015 at 09:15 PM

Hey there! I simply would like to offer you a huge thumbs up for the excellent info you've got here on this post. I am coming back to your website for more soon.

Posted by: Financial Debt Edmonton | February 01, 2015 at 07:38 AM

There are numerous adventure games available. Why are advertisers interested in finding out how far they would farmville 2 cheats come where handhelds could significantly lessen the gap of what you'd want in on the exterior. Consumers have also decided to update it later. Mobile Marketing via QR codes enable the superb graphics, tremendous sound and graphics.

Posted by: farmville 2 hack ipad | February 01, 2015 at 03:51 PM

GamificationNARR8 introduced a new and graphically superior verson of the video can be easily played by millions of people with its game. You can't have racing rivals hack the world. If it would probably go to the next great game whose classic timlessness witll make it a rocking and memorable one. This movement system has slowly become the most famous person in Hollywood or maybe laptops which usually can choose to download for the Sony PSP Phone release date.

Posted by: racing rivals unlimited coins android | February 01, 2015 at 06:52 PM

Hi there, I enjoy reading through your article post. I wanted to write a little comment to support you.

Posted by: Richmond Virginia best personal injury funding | February 01, 2015 at 07:57 PM

Lots of A/C solution technicians start off their AIR CONDITIONER career as A/C installers and function their method right into A/C service.

Posted by: hvac helper jobs in houston tx | February 03, 2015 at 04:37 AM

It's very trouble-free to find out any matter on web as compared to textbooks, as I found this article at this site.

Posted by: online surveys for money | February 05, 2015 at 07:51 PM

Ahaa, its fastidious discussion on the topic of this piece of writing here at this website, I have read all that, so now me also commenting here.

Posted by: Time Pepper mill | February 07, 2015 at 07:55 AM

This fire resistant wire is the only means you could know your fire alarm equipment will certainly continue to operate if there's a fire.

Posted by: fire alarm jobs nyc | February 11, 2015 at 01:34 PM

I truly love your site.. Excellent colors & theme. Did you develop this website yourself? Please reply back as I'm wanting to create my very own site and would love to find out where you got this from or what the theme is called. Thanks!

Posted by: minecraft games | February 12, 2015 at 10:55 PM

Howdy! I simply want to offer you a big thumbs up for the great info you have right here on this post. I will be coming back to your site for more soon.

Posted by: מנעולן דרושים באזור כפר סבא | February 13, 2015 at 12:37 AM

Hi to all, how is all, I think every one is getting more from this site, and your views are pleasant designed for new users.

Posted by: תיקון מזגן תל אביב | February 13, 2015 at 05:31 AM

If you don't have a clear objective, then losing weight will be much more difficult if not impossible. t realize is that the weight loss injections only show results because they also have to follow a strict low calorie diet, which in itself is limited and can cause severe deficiencies. Xylitol is good for you because it's a natural sugar substitue (found in vegetables), and it has no cooking aftertaste, it tastes exactly like sugar - with none of the calories.

Posted by: weight loss | February 15, 2015 at 02:43 AM

Most unpleasant cabling jobs are from choosing incorrect cable lengths so use much shorter cords where possible.

Posted by: cabling jobs calgary | February 18, 2015 at 09:43 AM

The occasion ends with the Orsay's amazing collection of pointillist paints, stood for by the masters Georges Seurat and also Paul Signac.

Posted by: web site | February 22, 2015 at 05:36 AM

The some on the internet part time jobs in Bangalore are post creating tasks, data entry tasks in Bangalore, creating works as well as even more.

Posted by: data center jobs austin tx | February 23, 2015 at 03:29 AM

Lewakowski didn't care how long it took her to finish - that she was cycling in any way was a significant victory.

Posted by: website | February 23, 2015 at 05:25 PM

Hi there, I enjoy reading all of your article post. I like to write a little comment to support you.

Posted by: surveys that pay cash | February 26, 2015 at 11:32 AM

Please let me know if you're looking for a author for your blog. You have some really good articles and I think I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I'd really like to write soime content for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine. Please blast me an e-mail if interested. Cheers!

Posted by: get paid surveys | February 26, 2015 at 09:56 PM

Good post however I was wondering if you could write a litte more on this topic? I'd be very thankful if you could elaborate a little bit further. Many thanks!

Posted by: paying survey | February 26, 2015 at 10:41 PM

I every time used to study piece of writing in news papers but now as I am a user of internet therefore from now I am using net for articles, thanks to web.

Posted by: Beard trimmer reivew | February 26, 2015 at 11:37 PM

Since then, under Kasich, Ohio netted 31,400 jobs year-over-year from January of 2012 to January 2013, ODJFS information programs.

Posted by: data center technician jobs nj | March 02, 2015 at 05:09 AM

He often called me from L.a Region Jail however my defensive male boss refused to permit me see the creep.

Posted by: audio visual technician jobs dallas | March 04, 2015 at 03:37 PM

Thanks , I've recently been searching for information about this topic for a long time and yours is the greatest I've found out so far. But, what concerning the conclusion? Are you sure about the source?

Posted by: endodontics procedures | March 08, 2015 at 03:53 AM

I just like the helpful information you provide in your articles. I'll bookmark your weblog and test once more right here frequently. I am slightly certain I will learn many new stuff proper here! Good luck for the next!

Posted by: dentist in new hyde park ny | March 08, 2015 at 05:21 AM

Hey there superb website! Does running a blog similar to this take a massive amount work? I have virtually no knowledge of coding but I was hoping to start my own blog in the near future. Anyway, should you have any ideas or techniques for new blog owners please share. I understand this is off subject however I just needed to ask. Many thanks!

Posted by: tooth implant cost philadelphia pa | March 08, 2015 at 05:54 AM

A 10 % boost in Security Guards because 2008, on 2018 is anticipated to represent 152,500 brand-new works.

Posted by: cctv jobs in las vegas | March 08, 2015 at 07:53 PM

What if you traded it onnly a couple hours a day?

Posted by: larrys cash machine review | March 10, 2015 at 07:17 PM

Fine way of telling, and nice post to get information about my presentation focus, which i am going to present in institution of higher education.

Posted by: Www.Youtube.Com | March 10, 2015 at 10:18 PM

Heya i am for the primary time here. I came across this board and I in finding It really helpful & it helped me out a lot. I'm hoping to present one thing back and help others like you helped me.

Posted by: Clash of Clans hack | March 11, 2015 at 01:49 AM

I really like it when people come together and share thoughts. Great blog, stick with it!

Posted by: plumbers kansas city Dayton Oh | March 11, 2015 at 10:22 AM

Wonderful beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your website, how can i subscribe for a blog web site? The account helped me a acceptable deal. I had been a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast offered bright clear idea

Posted by: plumber edinburgh Dayton Oh | March 11, 2015 at 07:07 PM

In case you are staying for every week then ask what the weekly room rate is. Plan your Vegas trip well ahead to get the most effective rates.

Posted by: journey to the center of the earth | March 12, 2015 at 02:53 AM

Thank you for some other informative web site. Where else may I am getting that type of information written in such a perfect approach? I have a undertaking that I am just now running on, and I have been on the glance out for such info.

Posted by: Magazin | March 12, 2015 at 07:14 PM

I was wondering if you ever thought of changing the layout of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having 1 or 2 pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

Posted by: internet marketing | March 13, 2015 at 03:34 AM

Fantastic site you have here but I was curious about if you knew of any user discussion forums that cover the same topics discussed in this article? I'd really like to be a part of group where I can get feedback from other experienced people that share the same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me know. Cheers!

Posted by: salt and pepper Shakers | March 13, 2015 at 08:00 PM

Hello, I desire to subscribe for this weblog to take most up-to-date updates, therefore where can i do it please assist.

Posted by: advertising companies Stockton CA | March 14, 2015 at 04:38 AM

The following pointers offer you to attenuate your discomfort stay in the Hotel and give the most effective of Hotel selection in any location.

Posted by: Amelia | March 14, 2015 at 06:29 AM

Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates. I've been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this. Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

Posted by: irrelevant websites | March 14, 2015 at 09:17 AM

My relatives always say that I am wasting my time here at net, except I know I am getting familiarity all the time by reading such good articles or reviews.

Posted by: How do I sell my house fast Houston | March 14, 2015 at 09:18 AM

Final reslts can be acquired wighin seconds of pre-calculation off pprofit generation prediction.

Posted by: forex demo | March 14, 2015 at 07:01 PM

I seriously love your site.. Very nice colors & theme. Did you make this amazing site yourself? Please reply back as I'm planning to create my own blog and would like to find out where you got this from or just what the theme is named. Thank you!

Posted by: pasticciandoincucina.blogspot.it | March 14, 2015 at 10:30 PM

One of the brilliant things about a Sailing Yacht Charter is you can be fully hands-on helping to crew the vessel or simply sit back and relax if you prefer. The subject of your choice is available from whence to experience this multi faceted city. One more benefit that you choose to arrive at love in the event you go for luxury yacht charter will be the more freedom of choice when it happens in your vacation spot.

Posted by: SAP Calculations in the UK | March 15, 2015 at 12:19 PM

Hi, Neat post. There's an issue along with your website in internet explorer, could check this? IE nonetheless is the marketplace leader and a large component of other people will pass over your excellent writing due to this problem.

Posted by: Power no2 Max Muscle | March 15, 2015 at 11:59 PM

Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You obviously know what youre talking about, why throw away your intelligence on just posting videos to your weblog when you could be giving us something informative to read?

Posted by: car transport | March 18, 2015 at 09:57 AM

ӏ was աondеring iif you ѵer considered changing the page layout of your website? Its very well written; I love what youve got to saʏ. But maybe you cߋuld ɑ little more in the way of content so peoρle could connect with it betteг. Youve got an awful lot of text for only hɑvng one or 2 pictureѕ. Maybe you could space itt out better?

Posted by: htrushukreviews.wordpress.com | March 20, 2015 at 12:00 AM

I think the admin of this site is in fact working hard in support of his website, since here every data is quality based data.

Posted by: Pure Saffron Extract | March 20, 2015 at 08:27 AM

Hey very interesting blog!

Posted by: real estate sotogrande | March 20, 2015 at 07:35 PM

And every News Paper and Magazines carried further details of this 'Rare News' throughout the world and in all languages, in their own styles and fashions of telling it. However, the news will not only deliver the business news, but other industrial news as well. This is in a way can be said as troublesome for Lagadapati Rajagopal.

Posted by: Jasper | March 21, 2015 at 10:35 PM

Good article. I will be facing some of these issues as well.. by Len Vow

Posted by: เย็ด XXX | March 23, 2015 at 07:45 AM

As much as many enjoy mushrooms, they belong to the same category as those fungi that ruin the skin.

Posted by: psychedelic mushroom spores | March 23, 2015 at 11:15 AM

Every weekend i used to go to see this web page, because i want enjoyment, since this this web page conations genuinely nice funny material too.

Posted by: Erik T Goluboff MD | March 24, 2015 at 05:02 PM

It's awesome in support of me to have a site, which is helpful in favor of my knowledge. thanks admin

Posted by: Courtney | March 25, 2015 at 06:43 AM

What's uƿ, I wisɦ fοr to subscribe fοr this blog too obtain most rеcent updates, tɦus where can i do it please help.

Posted by: buy generic priligy online | March 25, 2015 at 04:18 PM

Keep this going please, great job!

Posted by: used car dealerships in austin | March 25, 2015 at 11:14 PM

Protect your children byy preventing them from playing with strangers online. This is an excellent way for anyone who has computer knowledge tto make some money right from the phyone and at home. If you want to gget more tanks, you have to make more money.

Posted by: work from home ideas for dads | March 26, 2015 at 07:21 AM

I for all time emailed this web site post page to all my contacts, because if like to read it next my friends will too.

Posted by: vita lipo reviews | March 28, 2015 at 10:18 AM

It is really a great and helpful piece of info. I'm glad that you simply shared this helpful information with us. Please stay us up to date like this. Thank you for sharing.

Posted by: glock slide plate | March 28, 2015 at 09:40 PM

Hello! I've been following your weblog for some time now and finally got the courage to go ahead and give you a shout out from Dallas Texas! Just wanted to tell you keep up the good work!

Posted by: eyeluminous review | March 29, 2015 at 05:54 PM

We stumbled over here from a different website and thought I might check things out. I like what I see so now i am following you. Look forward to looking into your web page repeatedly.

Posted by: Mass PM Reviews | March 29, 2015 at 09:43 PM

I every time emailed this weblog post page to all my associates, because if like to read it next my links will too.

Posted by: smartphone 2015 releases | April 02, 2015 at 01:51 AM

I enjoy what you guys tend to be up too. This sort of clever work and exposure! Keep up the good works guys I've included you guys to my own blogroll.

Posted by: wholesale jordans shoes | April 04, 2015 at 08:25 AM

Thanks for sharing your thoughts about losing weight over 40. Regards

Posted by: Nitric Max Muscle Supplement | April 05, 2015 at 03:33 PM

Baird, online video online games produced virtually US $60 billion in 2011. As of this report, a person of the most well known applications or video games on the online looks to be non-existant for the pill device. Men and women will have to exercise abnormal warning, and businesses ought to install safeguards in purchase to stay clear of the next coming of Ransomware.

Posted by: heroes charge hack | April 06, 2015 at 02:40 AM

Ӏ lіke what you guys tend to Ье up too. Such clever woгk and coverage! Кeep up the terrific wοrks guys I've included you guys to blogroll.

Posted by: Desiree | April 06, 2015 at 06:36 AM

Іn sρite of thе moѕt helpful efforts օf The Worlɗ Bank the ѕtate debt wіll keep on and abide by Marvel Contest օf Champions hack for ƴouг close to future.

Posted by: Marvel Contest of Champions Hack | April 07, 2015 at 08:14 AM

I'm pretty pleased to find this web site. I need to to thank you for ones time for this wonderful read!! I definitely really liked every little bit of it and I have you book-marked to check out new stuff on your web site.

Posted by: Dermolyte Serum | April 07, 2015 at 08:40 PM

What's up to every body, it's my first pay a visit of this web site; this weblog includes awesome and really good stuff designed for visitors.

Posted by: Geometry Dash Cheats | April 08, 2015 at 06:10 PM

If you pay through this medium you are certain to receive your Aion Time Card within an hour of your making the payment. Auctioneer - This add-on allows you to scan auction houses in Wo - W, which gives you an idea for how much you should sell a particular item for. With technological innovations these games and the platforms has allowed the gaming enthusiasts to be thrilled and entertained like never before.

Posted by: gry online darmowe | April 09, 2015 at 03:57 AM

Hi everyone, it's my first pay a visit at this web page, and post is truly fruitful in favor of me, keep up posting such content.

Posted by: loans quick | April 09, 2015 at 04:51 PM

If you are going for finest contents like myself, simply pay a quick visit this web page all the time as it gives feature contents, thanks

Posted by: csr racing best cars to buy | April 10, 2015 at 01:15 AM

Baird, online video games produced approximately US $sixty billion in 2011. This will most likely distinct practically all of the board, and is virtually a prerequisite for winning this amount. The game's design is lively and there is a not so critical tale line.

Posted by: summoners war crystals hack | April 10, 2015 at 05:14 PM

fantastic issues altogether, you simply received a logo new reader. What may you recommend in regards to your submit that you simply made a few days ago? Any sure?

Posted by: what does electronic music sound like | April 12, 2015 at 05:54 PM

I think everything posted made a ton of sense. But, what about this? suppose you were to write a awesome post title? I am not saying your information isn't good, however what if you added something that grabbed people's attention? I mean チキンレースのオッズを考える: マーケットの馬車馬 is a little boring. You should glance at Yahoo's front page and see how they create news titles to get viewers to open the links. You might try adding a video or a related pic or two to get readers interested about everything've got to say. Just my opinion, it could make your posts a little bit more interesting.

Posted by: thomasnet reviews | April 14, 2015 at 06:55 PM

Hello it's me, I am also visiting this web page regularly, this web site is really fastidious and the users are truly sharing nice thoughts.

Posted by: Lilly | April 15, 2015 at 12:35 AM

Do you have a spam problem on this blog; I also am a blogger, and I was curious about your situation; many of us have created some nice methods and we are looking to trade methods with others, be sure to shoot me an email if interested.

Posted by: google adwords express | April 18, 2015 at 10:24 PM

hello!,I love your writing very a lot! share we keep up a correspondence more approximately your post on AOL? I need an expert in this space to unravel my problem. May be that is you! Taking a look forward to look you.

Posted by: domace slike | April 19, 2015 at 06:05 PM

Today, I went to the beachfront with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said "You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear." She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!

Posted by: lustige bilder zum totlachen | April 24, 2015 at 12:34 AM

Great post. I was checking constantly this blog and I am impressed! Very helpful info specifically the last part :) I handle such info a lot. I was seeking this certain info for a long time. Thanks and best of luck.

Posted by: biotestosterone review | April 24, 2015 at 05:19 PM

Just wish to say your article is as astounding. The clearness on your post is simply excellent and that i can suppose you are knowledgeable in this subject. Fine with your permission allow me to seize your feed to stay up to date with impending post. Thanks 1,000,000 and please carry on the rewarding work.

Posted by: Native Garcinia cambogia | April 26, 2015 at 04:59 PM

tetracycline shipped overnight without a prescriptin

Posted by: buying tetracycline over the counter for saletetracycline shipped cash on | May 02, 2015 at 09:43 PM

I've been browsing online more than 3 hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like yours. It's pretty worth enough for me. In my opinion, if all site owners and bloggers made good content as you did, the web will be a lot more useful than ever before.

Posted by: domace vijesti | May 07, 2015 at 02:02 AM

Thank you for the auspicious writeup. It if truth be told was a amusement account it. Glance complex to more brought agreeable from you! By the way, how can we keep in touch?

Posted by: Slim Weight patch Review | May 07, 2015 at 11:48 AM

For latest information you have to pay a quick visit the web and on the web I found this web page as a finest site for most recent updates.

Posted by: tienda erotica | May 14, 2015 at 05:22 PM

Hello would you mind letting me know which webhost you're working with? I've loaded your blog in 3 different web browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot quicker then most. Can you suggest a good internet hosting provider at a reasonable price? Kudos, I appreciate it!

Posted by: Anderson | May 15, 2015 at 02:04 PM

Attractive part of content. I just stumbled upon your blog and in accession capital to claim that I acquire in fact enjoyed account your weblog posts. Any way I'll be subscribing to your feeds and even I fulfillment you get admission to constantly rapidly.

Posted by: Heidi | May 16, 2015 at 03:44 AM

Tremendous issues here. I'm very satisfied to look your article. Thanks so much and I am taking a look forward to contact you. Will you please drop me a mail?

Posted by: moviestarplanet hack | May 17, 2015 at 12:50 PM

Hello there, just became alert to your blog through Google, and found that it's truly informative. I am going to watch out for brussels. I will appreciate if you continue this in future. A lot of people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

Posted by: hgh xl | May 20, 2015 at 05:26 PM

Wow, amazing weblog structure! How long have you ever been running a blog for? you made running a blog glance easy. The whole look of your site is excellent, let alone the content!

Posted by: Nadhmi Sahbani | May 22, 2015 at 04:14 AM

This is how ghostwriting came into existence and now every field hires ghost writers for their work. En - Starz reports this Thursday, September 4, that Jamie Dornan ' also known as our Christian Grey in the film ' had a special sighting this week with none other than the inner goddess author herself, EL James. Tribal tales describe the moon as an intuitive influence of order and routine.

Posted by: fifty shades of grey watch online | June 04, 2015 at 01:42 AM

You've made some decent points there. I checked on the web for more info about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this web site.

Posted by: paper instead | June 05, 2015 at 01:48 AM

Its like you read my thoughts! You seem to understand a lot about this, such as you wrote the guide in it or something. I feel that you simply can do with a few p.c. to force the message home a little bit, however instead of that, that is magnificent blog. A great read. I will definitely be back.

Posted by: goji pro onde comprar | June 11, 2015 at 07:16 AM

One way of getting rich is to strategically put vending machines at corners and streets. The flagrant foul two call; destroyed the Los Angeles Lakers in their sudden demise this year. Activities will include a scavenger hunt to find ten characters hidden throughout MINILAND with the chance to win a family four-pack of Annual Passes and Star Wars Building activities with prizes and giveaways.

Posted by: fast and furious 7 watch online | July 02, 2015 at 04:52 AM

I just couldn't go away your website before suggesting that I really loved the standard information an individual supply on your visitors? Is gonna be again ceaselessly to inspect new posts

Posted by: triche hay day | September 28, 2015 at 04:19 PM

Although being aware of keyword percentages is a good idea, it is more important that content be relevant and useful to the visitor. Any business to conduct business on the web should have a web site created especially for creating an awareness of their products and ser-vices to the planet at large. But in general here are the services that an online business owner should expect from SEO experts and other agencies and consultants:. A guy named Alan Emtage, a student at the University of Mc - Gill, developed the first search engine for the Internet in 1990.

Posted by: hopetoown.com | February 05, 2016 at 05:58 AM

If your site is relatively sound, the most important results for you to consider are the keyword hits. When Page - Rank was patented the patent was assigned to Stanford University. Forgetting to write for an audience is one of the biggest mistakes that bloggers make. Tests with a model like Page - Rank have shown that the system is not infallible.

Posted by: homes for sale bethesda maryland | February 06, 2016 at 01:05 AM

What are your beliefs about relationships? Setting objectives is among the best time management methods that you can execute in your company. It's not practically fixing appointments and seeing clients.

Posted by: http://www.purevolume.com/listeners/mobileworkforcemanagementsoftware07/posts/4018549/Guidelines+On+ | February 06, 2016 at 02:14 AM

This tool helps an organizer to keep an eye on exactly what all things are yet to be done. Put a list out where all your relative can see it. Time management can be done perfectly through a time table.

Posted by: Tommy | February 06, 2016 at 02:22 AM

Gone are the days of one way marketing or merely just posting comments about your site or other related topics. The usual SEO methods include keyword research, link building and such. I am hoping to show you that I can help you achieve top rankings in the sites like I have for all my other clients. Webmaster follows a long process to promote a website in top search engines (Google, Yahoo and Bing).

Posted by: Rocco | February 08, 2016 at 07:26 PM

Nowadays, the conditions for your website to be ranked high in the search engine results are based on the search engine optimization techniques that you decide to use. Any business to conduct business on the web should have a web site created especially for creating an awareness of their products and ser-vices to the planet at large. Depending on how how much time you have you can do this about once per week. Eventbrite is an online party-planning tool with KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) design so it is usually a top rated choice among event planners (organizers).

Posted by: Http://unitedcsva.com/?Document_srl=3071653 | February 09, 2016 at 06:26 AM

Although being aware of keyword percentages is a good idea, it is more important that content be relevant and useful to the visitor. Any business to conduct business on the web should have a web site created especially for creating an awareness of their products and ser-vices to the planet at large. While effective SEO needn't be difficult, it does take work. This mode of advertisement was faster than the earlier ones and reached more people but it had its own limitations.

Posted by: webvision.Co.kr | February 09, 2016 at 07:04 AM

Although being aware of keyword percentages is a good idea, it is more important that content be relevant and useful to the visitor. Thirdly, the search engines need legit companies to do site optimization. While effective SEO needn't be difficult, it does take work. Webmaster follows a long process to promote a website in top search engines (Google, Yahoo and Bing).

Posted by: Abel | February 09, 2016 at 08:54 AM

Each of them has a different function according to the intensity of the misspelled keywords. The Internet has changed the way we attain information forever and Google has been the main driving force and proponent behind this instant access to information. I am hoping to show you that I can help you achieve top rankings in the sites like I have for all my other clients. A reputable SEO company won't have any qualms about connecting potential clients with former ones.

Posted by: www.guligu.com.br | February 09, 2016 at 03:17 PM

Post a comment



(Not displayed with comment.)




TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://app.cocolog-nifty.com/t/trackback/41088/2050801

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference チキンレースのオッズを考える:

« 貿易黒字のチキンレース | Main | 実はまっとうな中国の経済政策 »