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実はまっとうな中国の経済政策

このネタはずいぶん前から頭の中にはあったのだが、当初これをブログで書くつもりはなかった。なにしろ中国ネタはホットトピックだ。5年前は中国発のデフレがどうだと騒がれ、最近は日本経済のエンジンだと騒がれている(ほとんど状況が変化していないのにここまで評価が入れ替わるのだから、日本の経済評論とはいい加減な代物だとつくづく思う)。

当然、主だったネタはとっくに語りつくされているはずで、今更なにかを語るのであれば気の利いたひねりを入れないと駄目だろうな、と思っていたのだが、この日経の社説を読んで考えを変えた。おいおい、全然分かってないじゃん。

天下の日経の社説にこんなものが載ってしまうのであれば、筆者もこのネタで少し語る資格がありそうだ。そこで、今回は少し基本的なところから中国経済について考えてみたい。最終的に、巷で根拠なく言われることの多い「中国経済がこのままうまく行くわけない」「固定為替相場制や行政主導主体の経済政策は邪道・時代遅れ」といった類の意見を、ちゃんと分析することがこの記事の目標だ。


中国政府が目指すもの

とりあえず、日経の社説について文句を言うのは後回しにして、そもそも、中国政府が何を狙っているのかを考えてみよう。他の多くの政府がそうであるように、中国政府も国家の一大目標として「国民生活を豊かにすること」を掲げている。

問題はどうやって豊かになるかなのだが、とりあえず精神的な豊かさのほうは、何たって中国は悠久なる4000年の歴史の中でとっくに精神的に豊かになっているはずであるので、ここでは考えない。では経済的に豊かになるためには?やはり経済成長は欠かせない。働かざるもの食うべからず、もっと多く生産すれば、もっと豊かになれるのだ。

一般的には、何かをより多く生産するためには、大まかに3つの要素が必要だ。ひとつは労働力。もうひとつは労働者が働く工場や店舗、各種生産機械などの資本。最後が、より良いものを作るためのアイデア、すなわち技術だ。

言うまでもなく、中国は労働力について心配する必要はない。現状でも2億人は失業しているという推計を見たことがある。ちなみに日本の就業者数はざっくり6000万人だ。無尽蔵と評して問題ないだろう。しかし、国民一人一人の豊かさを考えるとき、この労働力というのはあまり意味がない。確かに、より多くの労働者を生産現場に投入すれば、中国の経済規模(≒GDP)は拡大する。しかし、これでは一人当たりの所得はあまり伸びない。GDPが倍になっても、そのために倍の労働者を使っていては、一人当たりの分け前は増えないからだ。もちろん、失業者は所得ゼロなので、それよりはずいぶんましなのだが、中国政府としてもそんなレベルで満足するつもりはさらさらないだろう。

問題なのは、一人当たりの所得を増やすこと。つまり、一人当たりの生産量をどう増やすかが鍵になる。そのためには、労働者一人一人が高いスキルを持つこと(=技術)と、より良い機械を使いこなすこと(=資本)が重要になってくるわけだ。そして、技術を進歩させるためにも、設備を充実させるためにも絶対不可欠なのが投資、ぶっちゃけお金だ。

残念ながら、他の全ての途上国と同じく、中国には金がない。だから、中国政府の最大の課題は、「どうやって設備投資や研究開発投資のお金を調達してくるか」という点にある


おカネの出所:東南アジアの場合

資金調達のひとつの方法は、海外から借りてくることだ。世界には今まで散々儲けて溜め込んだお金の使い道に困っている国がいくつもある。彼らから金を借りれば我々は投資が出来てハッピー、彼らは自国では考えられない高配当を手にしてハッピー、何の問題もない。

というわけで、タイやインドネシアなど東南アジア諸国は外資をどうやって国内に引き込むかを考えた。そして、外資導入の決定打が固定為替相場制の導入だった。固定相場制の下では、投資家は海外投資を圧倒的にやりやすくなる。為替リスクを考える必要がなくなるからだ。アメリカの投資家は自国の企業に投資する感覚でタイに投資が出来る。実際、1990年代前半、東南アジアへの海外からの投資は激増した。投資資金の確保という当初の目的は完全に達成されたわけだ。

しかし、アメリカの投資家が自国への投資と同じ感覚でタイに投資が出来るということは、タイの金利がアメリカの金利より少しでも高い限り、海外からの資金流入が続くということだ。タイが「もう十分、おなかいっぱいです」と言っても、金融市場は許してはくれない。フォアグラのように、タイ経済には外国資金が詰め込まれていく。そして、行き場を失った資金は不動産投機などに回り、バブル経済が生まれたわけだ。

つまり、タイ政府は投資資金を手にした代わりに、金融市場をコントロールする能力を失ってしまったのだ

更に問題だったのは、海外からの資金が短期貸付主体だったことだ。これは当然といえば当然の話で、海のものとも山のものとも知れないタイの企業や銀行に10年満期の貸付をする馬鹿はいない。いくら金利が良くてもだ(とりあえず、日本の地銀などを中心にこの手の馬鹿が少なからずいたことは見なかったことにしたい)。このあたりは経済学の世界でも分析が進んでおり、固定相場であろうがなかろうが、大量の資金が欲しければ途上国は短期資金を借り入れるしかないという結論が出ている

この場合、何かネガティブなイベントが発生すると資金は一斉にタイから引き上げてゆく。長期資金であれば満期が来るまで何年も気長に待たねばならないのだが、3ヶ月満期であればいつでも逃げ出せる。こうして通貨危機が発生したわけだ(これは解釈のひとつに過ぎないので注意)。


おカネの出所:日本・中国の場合

さて、どういう形であれ海外の資金に頼るときはそれなりのリスクを覚悟しなければならない、ということは分かった。では、それ以外の方法で投資のための資金を調達できないだろうか?

結論から言えば、方法はある。それは日本が40年前にやったやり方だ。自分の国民にがんがん貯蓄をしてもらい、その金を借りて投資にまわせばよい。この場合、自国民は貸出先企業を良く知っているため、海外投資家のように「短期でなければ貸せませんね」とは言わない。ずっと安定的に資金を調達できるわけだ。

しかし、国内で貯蓄をためるということは、自国民に消費をあきらめてもらうか、自分で消費するよりもずっと多い生産(=所得)をしてもらうしかない。消費よりも生産が多いということは、残りを輸出しているということだ。つまり、国内で貯蓄をためるには、貿易黒字を増やすしかない

そして、貿易黒字を増やすには、円安(中国の場合は元安)にすればよい。円安が進めば輸出物価は下がるので海外でモノを売りやすくなり、一方で輸入物価は上がるので消費者は輸入を控えるようになるからだ。

さらに、固定為替相場制にしておけば、メーカーも為替リスクを考えずに生産計画が立てられるので更に望ましい。つまり、ここでの固定相場制は東南アジアの固定相場とはまるで意味合いが異なる。タイの固定相場制は外資導入のためだったが、日本のブレトンウッズ体制や中国の固定相場制は輸出促進のための固定相場制なのだ

もちろん、目的がどうであれ、固定相場制を敷いたら海外の投資家は中国に投資しやすくなる。そこで、中国は海外からの資金流入を徹底的に規制した。特に株など、いつでも売却・撤退可能な商品への投資はほとんど禁止されていた(2年ほど前から規制が緩和されたが、統計を見ている限り日本から中国・香港への株投資が活発化したという形跡はない)。

もちろん、中国にとっても、トヨタが中国に工場を作ってくれるのなら輸出も増えるので大歓迎だ。そこで中国は海外からの直接投資(株や債券を買うような投資ではなく、現地に工場を作ったり、より「直接」的に投資をするもの)だけは受け入れ、その代わり一度中国に投資をしたら簡単には資金を引き上げさせないように規制を敷いたわけだ。

このように、「長期資金だけは受け入れるが、お金が出て行くことは許さない」という強力な資本規制を敷いた結果、いくら中国の方が金利が高くても海外投資家はおいそれと資金を中国に投入できなくなった。おかげで、中国はフォアグラにならなくて済んだわけだ。


非常にまっとうな中国の経済政策

ちなみに、この関係は国際経済学では同時に追えない3匹のウサギの話(トリレンマ)として知られている。3匹のウサギとは、固定相場制、自由な資金移動、自由な金融政策だ。固定相場制を敷いて資本規制をしなければ、その国は自国の金利を自分でコントロールできなくなる(タイのケース)。一方で、固定相場制を敷いてなお金利を自分でコントロールするには、海外から資金が流入してくるのを制限しなければならない。もし資本規制がいやでそれでも自国の金利は自分で決めたいなら、固定相場制をあきらめるしかない。

これを考えると、今の中国の経済政策は非常に理にかなっている。日本という成功例があったからだとも言えるが、輸出主導型の経済発展のためにやるべきことをやるというポリシーは一貫している。

逆に際立つのが、中国の経済政策に対する批判の底の浅さだ。資本規制はとにかく資本主義的でないから駄目、固定相場制はとにかく駄目。これを書くに当たってざっとネット上で中国の経済政策批判を当たってみたのだが、「なぜ」を説明できている記事はとうとう見当たらなかった。ここまでお読みいただいた方にはもう明らかだと思うのだが、金融市場にガチガチの規制を敷くことが正しいこともあれば、固定為替相場制の方がいい状況だってあるのだ。

そのあたり、現在中国経済が抱える問題と、それに対する批判については次回。


本日のまとめ

中国にとっては、どうやって投資のための資金を入手するかが重要な問題だ。

固定相場制は海外から資金をゲットするのに有効なやり方だが、金融市場にガチガチの規制を敷かないと海外から大量に流れてくる資金をコントロールできず、バブル化する可能性がある。

企業にも銀行システムにも信用がない途上国では、海外から短期の借り入れしか出来ず、いざというときに資金が大量流出して経済危機を招く恐れがある。

その点、国内借り入れで投資資金をまかなうのは安全だが、大規模に投資するには巨額の貿易黒字を稼がなければならない。中国が頑なに固定相場制を維持する理由はそこにある。


注:「設備投資を増やすために貿易黒字を増やす」という説明は厳密には(事後的には)正しくないが、説明の都合上ということでお許しいただきたい。

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Comments

こちらへコメントするのは久しぶりで緊張します。

脳内ソースで申し訳ないんですが、日本が貿易黒字を計上するようになったのは比較的最近(70年代くらい?)じゃなかったでしょうか。日本も50,60年代くらいは投資過剰で海外からの資金に頼ってましたよね。日本の貯蓄率がアメリカなどと較べれば高かったことは間違いないと思いますが。細かい突っ込みで申し訳ないです。

Posted by: night_in_tunisia | December 01, 2004 at 12:32 AM

初めまして、はじめてコメントをさせていただきます。

 曖昧な記憶に頼っているので、間違っているかもしれません。週間ダイヤモンドでみたんですが、中国の銀行の不良債権率が15%程度あり、不動産投資の前年比もすごく高かった(ような気がします)。これは、多額の不動産投資が不良債権化して、上の不良債権率になっている結果ではないかと個人的には思っています。なので、バブル化どころか既にゆるゆると崩壊が始まっているんじゃないかと思っているのですが。
 あまり知識がないので、見当はずれな質問をしているかもしれません。

Posted by: ヒロト105 | December 01, 2004 at 01:58 AM

night_in_tunisiaさん、どうもお久しぶりです。いや、緊張なんてそんな(笑)。

いやぁ、ご指摘を受けてGDPを見てみたら、おっしゃるとおり貿易黒字に転化したのは78年でした。70年には黒字になっていたと思い込んでいたので、結構意外でした。まぁ、本文の末尾で微妙にヘッジを入れているとおり、設備投資を増やすために貿易黒字を増やす、と言っても、設備投資が増えれば必然的に貿易黒字は減るわけで、事後的には成立しない説明の仕方なんですよね。(とりあえず分かりやすさ重視ということで押し切ってしまったのですが)

要は、あれだけ設備投資をしても貿易赤字が急増しないように、為替を円安にして消費を抑えていたというべきだったのでしょうが、いまいち分かりづらいかな、と思いまして。

あと面白かったのは、貿易収支が黒字に転じた70年代後半から、住宅投資が頭打ちになるんですよね。もし住宅投資が60年代のペース(設備投資とほぼ同じ額と伸び率)で伸びていたら貿易収支の黒字化は更に10年以上遅れただろうというイメージです。

本当の意味で戦後が終わり、国内投資が一巡して海外投資に資金が向かい始めたのが70年代後半、という解釈も面白そうですね。


Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 02, 2004 at 08:08 AM

ヒロト105さん、はじめまして。

いえいえ、見当違いなんてとんでもない。とても重要な点だと思います。(次回少し中国の銀行にも触れようかと思っています)

難しいのは、不良債権比率がトレンドとして伸びているのかどうかだと思うんです。なにしろ、中国の銀行というのは昔からめちゃくちゃですから。貸し倒れといっても、銀行の経営陣がダミー会社作って倒産させ、借入金をまるごと頂戴する、くらいのことは当たり前にやっているでしょう。その意味で、15%という数字が大きいのかどうかが微妙だな、と。(もちろん、銀行経営という観点からは大きいのですが、マクロ経済の指標としてはまた別かもしれない、ということです)相変わらず半官半民が多いはずですし。

最近やっと参入し始めた外資系銀行の貸し倒れ比率が上昇したらまずいと思うのですが。

不動産投資で沿岸部が盛り上がっているという話は良く聞きますね。正直私は良く分かりません。日本でもこれだけダークな不動産市場が、中国華僑の手にかかったらどんなことになるのやら。わけわかんないなぁ、というのが私の中国市況に対する素直な感想だったりします。

今後ともよろしくお願いします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 02, 2004 at 08:17 AM

night_in_tunisiaさん、一点書き忘れてましたが、逆に言うと、中国はまだまだ投資余力があるんですよね。少なくとも、中国が金融面の外的要因から成長に制約がかかることはなさそうですね。当面の間は。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 02, 2004 at 09:35 AM

>難しいのは、不良債権比率がトレンドとして伸びているのかどうかだと思うんです。

そうですね、難しいと思います。この点、02~04年の間に凄い勢い不良債権比率が減っていますが、不良債権額の一番多い国有銀行の不良債権額は、それほど減っていないところがすごくひっかかります。単に貸出額が増えているだけなのかもしれませんが、、、。しかしそうだとすると、「中国の銀行というのは昔からめちゃくちゃですから。」ということであれば、やっぱり(貸出額が増えている以上)不良債権額の方も増えていないとおかしいわけで、僕としては実際の不良債権比率は増えているというのに一票投じたいところです。

Posted by: ヒロト105 | December 02, 2004 at 12:41 PM

ヒロト105さん:

正直、不良債権比率が増えている可能性は否定できません。ただ、資産価格が上昇し続けている中でそれでも不良債権比率が上昇しているとすれば、それってものすごく深刻な事態ですよね・・・。(正直、不正の横行を疑いたくなる状況です)

どの途上国にとっても金融システムの健全化・安定化は至上命題なのですが、なかなか成功しません。韓国の前近代的とすらいわれる銀行システムもとうとう改善しないまま今に至っていますし。このあたりは結局途上国経済のアキレス腱なんですよね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 03, 2004 at 09:35 PM

>どの途上国にとっても金融システムの健全化・安定化は至上命題なのですが、なかなか成功しません。韓国の前近代的とすらいわれる銀行システムもとうとう改善しないまま今に至っていますし。

 そうだったんですか、いや知らなかったです。今回のエントリーで考えてみて始めて、すこしおかしいんじゃないか?って疑ってみた程度でした。(かなり漠然としていますが)こういうことを勉強するにはどういう本を読めばよろしいでしょうか?
 もちろん次回のエントリーも楽しみにしています。

Posted by: ヒロト105 | December 03, 2004 at 10:00 PM

実は私もこのあたりを調べたのはずいぶん前の話でして、ソースをほとんど覚えていません。アジア開銀とかのレポートをあさったことはありますが、いくつかおもしろいレポートがあったように思います。最近であればウェブにも載っていると思うのですが・・・すいません、お役に立てませんで。
本、となると更に分からないんです・・・玉石混交というか、石が多すぎて探す気になれませんでした。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 07, 2004 at 09:04 AM

 いえ、そんなことはありません、ありがとうございました。
石をつかまないように気をつけながら、探してみたいと思います。

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