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蛇足として:日本の「経済論壇」はどうなってるんだ

書くべきか随分迷ったのだが、書いてしまうことにする。ネット内外の金融政策論議についてだ。

ひとつ声を大にして言いたいのは、「リフレ派」だの「アンチリフレ派」だの、いい加減なレッテル貼りに振り回されるのはもう止めにしませんか、ということだ。挙句、「リフレを主張しない人間は経済学が分かってない」などという短絡思考はもう経済学に対する冒涜と言っても差し支えないと思う。定義すら曖昧なものさしを使ってなぜ人の見識を測れるのか。

その点でもうため息しか出てこないのがこのへんのコメントだ。野口旭氏という方は今まで存じ上げなかったのだが、キャリアの大半を経済学に捧げた方が書く文章がこれなのか。Hotwiredへの寄稿コラムに対して真面目にツッコミを入れるのは野暮と承知しているが、いい加減な定義を引っ張ってきて「世界の一流学者はみんなリフレ派だ」とか言って喜んでいて何になる。大体、なぜリフレ派とやらに属する人の名前を列挙するのか。重要なのは「誰が」主張しているかではなく、「何を」主張しているかではないのか。

「人」を基準に仲間探しをする馬鹿馬鹿しさについて、一例を挙げておこう。数年前の話だが、筆者は清滝教授のセミナーにもぐりこむ機会があった。このセミナーの最後で、清滝LSE教授は参加者からの質問に、「このモデルでは確かに日銀の株式購入は支持されるが、実際には銀行の問題などもあるのでなかなか難しいところでしょうね」(筆者のうろ覚えだが大意はこんな感じ)と答えている。この記事では清滝教授はリフレ派に分類されているのだが、これはアンチリフレ派とやらの主張ではなかったのか?理論ではなく、人を基準に仲間探しをするからこういう矛盾が出てくるのだ。

リフレ派の立場は、世界の学界レベルではすでに十分すぎるほどの合意を得られたものなのであって、完全に「決着済み」なのである』なのだそうだ。そう言うなら、その合意とやらの中身をなぜ説明しないのか。そしてその「合意」の中で、実際の政策に落とし込む段階で重要な違いがあることをなぜ説明しないのか。クルーグマン、スヴェンソン、清滝=ムーアの3つのモデルを取っても、その主張は随分違うというのに(ちなみに、この中で今日銀が国債を買いまくれば問題は解決すると主張しているモデルはひとつもない)。

もちろん、クルーグマンやスヴェンソンなどのモデルをちゃんと比較検討するよりも「世の有名学者は実は全然物事を分かってないんだ」と書く本の方が売れるのは自明の理なので、こういう本を出すこと自体を非難するつもりは全くない(おそらく、強い人間の弱さをあばき、弱い人間の弱さをけなすのは人間の快感原則に合致するのだろう)。マーケティングとしては正しい方向性だと思う。

だが、それだけの暇と熱意があるのなら、日本の経済政策を正しい方向に導く意思があるのなら、「世界の学界で決着済みの合意」とやらについてなぜちゃんと説明しないのだろうか。念のために書くが、説明とは「インフレターゲットを採用すべし」というものではない。これは結論に過ぎない。なぜインフレターゲットが必要なのか?なぜ日銀は国債を買う必要があるのか?これらの政策はどう経済に影響を及ぼすのか?結論としての経済政策の妥当性を考えるための、理論的な枠組みを示さなければ何にもならない。そのような議論の叩き台を提供することこそ、専門家たる学者の仕事ではないのだろうか。

もちろん、筆者は野口氏の著作を網羅しているわけではない(というか、ほとんど読んだことはない)から、もしかしたら筆者の知らないところで高邁なる論説が展開されているのかもしれないが、『インフレターゲティングのような真のデフレ対策』とか無邪気に書いているのを見るとその可能性は低いように思える。この人はスヴェンソンが単純な「インフレターゲット」に批判的であること、またクルーグマンがインフレターゲットが実効力を持たない可能性に慎重に言及しており、その場合は財政政策も併用すべきであることなどを主張していることをどう思っているのだろうか。

別に自説としてインフレターゲット万歳を唱える分には構わない(十分な理論武装がされているなら)。筆者の関知するところではない。ただ、『海外リフレ派経済学者の代表』としてクルーグマンらの名前を挙げて自説の補強に使うのなら、自説との違いについては慎重に取り扱うべきなのは当然ではないか。自説(リフレ派)の定義を曖昧にしたまま、「アンチリフレ派」への攻撃をしてみたところで、子供のけんかと変わらない。

別に筆者はアンチリフレ派と呼ばれる人達を擁護するつもりはない。木村剛氏のこのエントリーなどにも全く説得力は感じない。なんだか、このあたりのエントリーを読んでいると、お互いの「陣営」が相手の一番馬鹿げた、つまらない部分に批判を加えているように見えるのだが。


リフレだのアンチリフレだのとレッテルを貼って経済政策の上っ面だけを議論するのはもう十分だろう。その裏側にある本質的な考え方について、学者の方々には議論を深めていただきたいのだが。


本日のまとめ

曖昧な定義で世界中の経済学者の名前を列挙して喜んでも何にもならない。重要なのは彼らが何を主張しているかだけだ。

クルーグマンやスヴェンソンなどの名前を使うなら、まず彼らの主張を分かり易く説明すべきだ。特に、自説との間に開きがあるなら。

リフレだのアンチリフレだのという上っ面の縄張り争いはもう止めて、本質的な議論をしよう。


注:この記事で野口旭氏についての言及はこの一連の記事にのみ依っています。

追記:この記事で取り上げた野口旭氏と共著で「エコノミスト・ミシュラン」という本を書かれた田中秀臣氏からTBを頂きました。こちらに田中氏(と他の読者の方々)のコメントがありますので、あわせてご覧いただければバランスが取れるのではないかと思います。(04年12月20日22時45分)

さらに追記: この記事に対して、下のコメント欄とこちらで何人かの方から「野口氏は自説を主張していないというのは誤りである」とのご指摘をいただきました。この記事の問題意識はそこにはないのですが、そう読める段落があることは確かであり、その点については筆者の記事に誤りがあります。ただ、筆者のこの記事での問題意識は「私何派、あなたアンチ何派」といったグループ分けそのものが不毛である」というところにあるのであって、野口氏への言及は全てこの点へのサポートとなるべく書かれたものだということは改めて強調しておきたいと思います。

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Comments

面白く読ませて頂きましたが、傍からみると、そこまで野口旭氏を批判する
のなら、ちょっと検索でもして氏がこのテーマにについて書いたものを多少
ともサーベイする労を厭うべきではなかったのではなかろうかという気がします。
当方の知る限りでも、一般向けでは『経済論戦』の最初の方や、もう少し専門家
向けのものでは財務省の『ファイナンス』という雑誌の昨年春くらいの号に
「インフレ目標によるリフレ政策の考え方」といった氏自身の見解を示した
論説が出されていたと思います。これらを読めば、野口氏が自らの論も示す
ことなく外国の学者の名前をあげつらっているにすぎないという批判はあたらない
ことがわかると思います。

Posted by: 通りすがり | December 21, 2004 at 03:25 PM

コメントありがとうございます。

検索が足りない、というのはおっしゃるとおりで、書く段階からずっと気になっていました。文中でも何度かヘッジを入れているのはそのせいです。

とりあえず氏のHPにも行ってみたのですが、結局何を読めばよいやらさっぱり分からず、「このままだと書くタイミングを逸しそうだし、書いちまえ!」ということで書いた記事であったりします。このあたり、海外の学者のように(クルーグマンは極端ですが)自説のメモや雑誌への寄稿などをHPにも転載してくれているとなにかと便利なのですが。

批判の半分以上は「人の名前を列挙して相手を説得しようとするのは不毛」「他人のアイデアを列挙するならそれが自説とどう整合しているのかも同時に示すべき」というものなので、野口氏の論説を知悉していなくても大丈夫だろう、と思って書いたものです。ただ、一部筆が滑って氏が自説を発表していないことが問題というような書き方をしているのはあまり適切な書き方ではないでしょうね。まぁ、通りすがりさんから頂いたコメントとあわせてバランスが取れればよいかなと思っています。

野口氏の論説の紹介どうもありがとうございます。そのうち入手してみようと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 21, 2004 at 09:07 PM

Fellow Travelerさんという人がこれについていっておりますが、
http://u1.blockblog.jp/blog_comment.html?blog_seq=8160&entry_seq=107885
野口氏のこの文章は、あくまで経済論壇の見取り図を示すためのものであって、
「人の名前を列挙して相手を説得する」目的のものではないと思われます。
そこで自説を述べていないのは、たんにHotwiredがそれに相応しい場所ではないから
でしょう。じっさい上で引用した「インフレ目標によるリフレ政策の考え方」では野口氏
自身の考え方が述べられていますので。

Posted by: 通りすがり | December 22, 2004 at 03:34 PM

通りすがりさん、コメントありがとうございます。

まず、野口氏が自説を主張していない、というのは上のエントリーの趣旨ではありません(そう取れる段落がひとつあるのは確かですが…)。

私が書いたのは、氏が学者の名前を列挙するだけでその議論の中身を全く説明していないこと、さらに「見取り図」の示し方がいくつかの点において非常にミスリーディングであるということです。

野口氏が客観的な見取り図を示されているのであれば私も上のようなエントリーは書きません。氏自身が当該記事で書かれているとおり、その見取り図は「リフレ派」なるものの議論の補強として書かれたものでしょう。『日本経済の長期低迷からの脱出に関して、決定的に重要なのは金融政策であるとする立場』をリフレ派の定義となさっているのに、その立場が世界的に支持されているという説明としてはあの「見取り図」は明らかにミスリードであろうということを清滝教授の例などを引きながら説明したわけです。

だからこそ、「そう書くのであれば自説(=日本において金融政策こそが重要)と名前を挙げている著名学者の議論との整合性をちゃんと説明しないと牽強付会のそしりをまぬがれないんじゃないの(実際整合していないし)」といった事を書いたわけです。野口氏の主張それ自体は特に上の記事では問題にしていません(だからこそ、関知しない、という表現を敢えて使ったわけです)。野口氏の主張のサーベイをすっ飛ばしたのも、問題意識がそこに無いからです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 22, 2004 at 08:33 PM

当方の勝手な解釈ですが、野口氏の分類は、あくまで現実の政策状況を基準にした
括りではないでしょうか。このような区分は何を基準にするかでさまざまですから。
それぞれの人の考え方の微細な相違が重要なときもあるでしょうが、人の生き死に
にかかわる現実の政策はつねに「あれか、これか」でしかありません。
たとえば「ゼロ金利を解除するか、しないのか」の二つに一つです。あのときには
日本の学者、エコノミストはまっぷたつにわれましたよね。外国の学者もそれぞれ意思
表示をしました。その状況では、陣営内の細かい違いを無視しても許されると思います。

また、清滝教授の例をあげておられますが、日本の現実のマクロ政策についての
教授の考えは、馬車馬さんの個人的経験によらずとも、吉川洋編『マクロ経済政策の
課題と争点』でのクルグマン報告への清滝コメントなどを読めば極めて明確でしょう。
清滝教授はもしかしたらある場所でリフレ派的でないことを本当にいったのかもしれ
ませんが、現実の政策状況でその真意を詮索することが有益とは思いません。

Posted by: 通りすがり | December 23, 2004 at 12:58 AM

通りすがりさん、コメントありがとうございます。

陣営内の細かい相違を無視しても良い場合はある、というのはおっしゃるとおりだと思いますが、野口氏は金融政策重視という立場であの文章を書いておられます。ということは、デフレ肯定派と同時に例えば財政政策重視派も「自陣営」から排除した上で議論されているわけです(為替介入重視はどちらでしょうね。非不胎化を伴ってこそ意味があるというのが一般的なリフレ派の主張と理解していますが)。

田中秀臣さんのコメント欄にも書いた話ですが、「デフレは肯定されるべきかどうか」という議論であるなら私も特に突っ込みません。ただ、野口氏の議論は明らかに違います。ある意味、「敵陣営」に分類されうる理論を提出している学者をも一絡げにリフレ派とラベリングしているのはやはり違うのではないかと。

清滝教授のコメントについてですが、真意を詮索するのが有益でないという点は完全に同意します。これまた田中秀臣氏のコメント欄に書いたことですが、だからこそ人の名前を列挙した論法は不毛なのです。もしかしたら彼は途中で考えを変えたのかもしれませんし、前提条件の設定の違いで両論がありうると思っているかもしれません。

しかし、彼の書いた論文はひとつです。そこではある種のリフレが肯定されていますし、一方で日銀の国債購入の効果はゼロとされています。明快ですよね。それが私が「著名学者の名前を列挙するなら彼らのモデルをこそちゃんと紹介すべきだ」と書いた理由です。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 23, 2004 at 08:31 PM

デフレ否定派と肯定派というのも一つの括りだとは思います。ただ、野口先生の
リフレ派イコール金融政策重視派という基準がそれ程不適切とも思えません。それは、
馬車馬さんがあげられているクルグマン、スヴェンソン、清滝等含め、あそこで
リフレ派とされている中で金融緩和なしで政策論が完結する議論はないように
思えるからです。クルグマンも野口先生もほかのリフレ派も、たぶん財政併用にも
為替介入にも反対しないどころが大賛成と思いますが、金融緩和なしの財政拡張、
金融緩和なしの不胎化介入には否定的だと思います。つまり、金融緩和はリフレの
必要条件だが、財政拡張や為替介入はそれ自身は必要条件でも十分条件でもない訳です。

それと、あの野口先生のHotwiredの文章は、もともとエコノミスト・ミシュラン
での、いろいろな学者やエコノミストの主張内容紹介と位置付けが前提になった話だと
思います。そこでまた繰り返しそれぞれのモデルを紹介しろというのは、ちょっと
野口先生に酷ではないでしょうか。

Posted by: 通りすがり | December 23, 2004 at 11:43 PM

クリアな議論の整理をありがとうございます。おっしゃることは良く分かります。

私の理解は、野口氏は例の記事で金融政策を十分条件として位置づけているのだというものです。(彼の自説がどうかは知りません。あの一連の記事において、ということです)野口氏の主張に私が違和感を感じ、通りすがりさんが私のエントリーに違和感を感じた理由はそこにあるのかもしれませんね。

実のところ、インフレターゲットのような真のデフレ対策とか無邪気に~というくだりは、氏が金融政策を十分条件として位置づけていることの傍証として出しています。で、その後にスヴェンソンとかクルーグマンと言ってることが違うじゃん、という議論につながるわけです。

なぜインフレターゲットの話が十分条件の話と関係するかについては、田中さんのブログのコメント欄でこれから説明することになると思いますので(次の次くらいのコメントかと)、そちらをお待ちいただければと思います。

酷ではないか?とのご指摘ですが、私はエコノミスト・ミシュランをちゃんと読んでいないので、なんともいえません。読まないで批判かよというお叱りは甘受しますが、なぜサーベイをしなかったかは前回書いたとおりです。

ところで、野口氏はこの本の中でスヴェンソンやクルーグマンの金融政策は十分条件ではなく必要条件(クルーグマンの議論では十分条件にもなりうるのですが、留保条件付)である、ということを説明されているのでしょうか?

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 24, 2004 at 08:42 AM

リフレ派の中には当然、必要条件の人も十分条件の人もいるでしょうから、
くくりとしては必要条件と考えるしかないのではないでしょうか。むしろ
問題は、必要条件は必ずみたされなければ話がはじまらないのにぜんぜん
みたされていないじゃないか(少なくとも速水総裁の時には)、というところ
がリフレ派の日銀批判につながり、それに縛りをあたえるインタゲ要求に
つながっていたのだと思います。ただ、野口先生はいまの福井さんには
けっこう好意的なようですから、いまも同じ考えかどうかは分かりませんが。

それと、馬車馬さんが野口先生の論説サーベイをしなかった理由は、野口先生の
主張それ自体を問題にしているわけではなく、モデルの紹介をしていないこと
が問題だからということでしたね。しかし、あのHotwiredの文章はそのモデルの
紹介を専門にやっているエコノミスト・ミシュランが前提なわけですから、馬車
さんの批判はなりたたないんじゃないの、ということです。

Posted by: 通りすがり | December 24, 2004 at 01:14 PM

くくりとしては必要条件を考えるしかない、という部分には賛同しかねます・・・必要条件と十分条件は全く別のものですよね。また、そうであるならば、「リフレ派」の定義は金融政策を必要条件とするものだ、といった意味のことを明記するべきでは。実際には、前回も書きましたが、文中から野口氏は金融政策を十分条件としてとりあつかっていると思うのですが(だからインフレターゲットが最重要といった発想が出てくる)。

それから、必要条件を満たすための日銀への縛りとしてのインフレターゲット、という理解は間違っています(田中さんが直近のコメントでバーナンキの言葉を引用されています。そこが当てはまると思いますのでご参照いただければと思います)。最終的にインフレターゲットは民間部門の期待インフレ率に作用するものです。必要条件が満たされてもインフレにはなりませんから、期待も当然変化しません。田中さんのブログで(部分的に)書いたことですが、十分条件が満たされていることはインフレターゲットを実行するための前提条件なのです。このあたりはスヴェンソンのBOJworking paperにも書いてあります。それで私の前回のコメントにつながるわけです。

ターゲットによって十分条件が満たされる、という議論も不可能ではないかもしれませんが、多分民間部門を契約の中に取り込んで考える必要が出てきますし、今度は1億2000万人のプレーヤーの協調という恐ろしく面倒な問題が生じます(これについてはあまり深く考えていないので、読み飛ばしていただきたいのですが)。そういう議論ってどこかで行われているんでしょうか?見たこと無いもので・・・

エコノミストミシュランで各学者の論説がどう紹介されたのかを知らないのでなんとも申し上げられないのですが、そこでこの必要条件と十分条件の違いについては間接的にでも触れられているのでしょうか?(前回も書いたことですが)ちゃんと紹介しているなら、ああいうくくりにはならないのでは、と思うのです。だからこそ、『~とか無邪気に書いているのを見るとその可能性は低いように思える』と書いたわけです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 25, 2004 at 08:04 PM

馬車馬さんは、なぜ野口先生のリフレ派の定義が金融緩和を十分条件としていると
考えたのですか? その理由が当方にはぜんぜんわかりません。野口先生が為替派
などもリフレ派にいれているということは、そのリフレ派という括りにとって金融緩和は
必要条件であることは普通に考えれば自明のように思うのですが。なぜなら、金融緩和
だけでなく為替政策という別の手段があってこそ「為替派」な訳ですから。

金融緩和が「最重要」であるのは、必要条件がみたされないかぎりリフレにはならない
のですから、これも当然でしょう。必要条件がみたされなくてもインフレになるのですか?

Posted by: 通りすがり | December 26, 2004 at 01:47 AM

通りすがりさん、どうもです。

繰り返し書いております通り、氏がインフレターゲットを主張されているからです。スヴェンソンが書いている通り(以下のペーパーのp2以降をご参照ください)、
http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/japanese/jdps/2001/01-J-06.pdf
単にインフレ目標を宣言しても、それに何らかのコミットメントのメカニズム等が伴わなければ、民間がこれを信認するとは限らず、ターゲットが無効となる可能性があるからです。

それを真のデフレ策であると氏が書いている以上、コミットメントのメカニズムが存在することは氏の議論の前提条件であろうと考えたわけです。そして、前のコメントで書いたとおり、必要条件が満たされているということはコミットメントとしては全く不十分です。繰り返し書きますが、私が『~と無邪気に書いているのを見るとその可能性は低いように思える』と書いているのは、その点を論じているのです(無邪気、というのは必要条件として語っているのならクルーグマンのようなヘッジを文中に入れるのが自然であり、それがない、ということを指しています)。

また、田中さんのブログのほうで私は個人的な興味として「日銀単体では必要条件を満たすことしか出来ないが、政府と協調できればそれは十分条件となる」場合についてインフレターゲットが成立しうるのかどうかを伺いました(もしそうなら、日銀が必要条件のみを満たしてもインフレターゲットが成立する可能性があり、野口氏の主張を「金融政策は必要条件である」として解釈する余地が出てくるからです。しかし、どうやら田中さんは政府・日銀の協調をインフレターゲットの文脈では考えておられないようです。この点も、傍証として挙げておきます(あくまでも傍証ですけどね)。

それから、通りすがりさんは『為替派などもリフレ派にいれている』ことを野口氏が金融政策を必要条件と捉えていることの証拠として挙げておられますが、これは論理の組み立てが逆でしょう。私は氏が金融政策を十分条件として取り上げているにもかかわらず、党派のくくりに「必要条件派」がはいっていること、またそのようなグループ分けではこの手の問題は避けがたく、そもそも党派的にくくってあれこれ語ること自体が不毛であることを主張したわけですから。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 26, 2004 at 08:56 PM

すみません。以下の発言が理解が困難です。

{また、田中さんのブログのほうで私は個人的な興味として「日銀単体では必要条件を満たすことしか出来ないが、政府と協調できればそれは十分条件となる」場合についてインフレターゲットが成立しうるのかどうかを伺いました(もしそうなら、日銀が必要条件のみを満たしてもインフレターゲットが成立する可能性があり、野口氏の主張を「金融政策は必要条件である」として解釈する余地が出てくるからです。しかし、どうやら田中さんは政府・日銀の協調をインフレターゲットの文脈では考えておられないようです。この点も、傍証として挙げておきます(あくまでも傍証ですけどね)。}

{「日銀単体では必要条件を満たすことしか出来ないが、政府と協調できればそれは十分条件となる」場合}という発言を馬車馬さんは私とのやりとりの中ではしていませんが? 必要条件十分条件はFellow Travelerさんとの間でのことではないでしょうか? 問題は私がどうアコード問題を考えているか、が中心だったわけでしょ?

それと最後のインフレターゲットの文脈で考えていないようだ、というのも誤解です。アコードはなんのために必要なんですか? リフレのために必要ですよね。その政策手段としてインタゲは必要と私は考えていますけども?

こちらで書かれていることと私のブログで書かれていることに非常に差異を感じ、驚いた次第です。

Posted by: tanakahidetomi | December 27, 2004 at 01:26 AM

馬車馬さんのいわれていることがよく分からないです。インタゲ云々は野口氏の主張な
のかもしれないですが、野口氏のリフレ派の定義とは無関係では?じっさい、あの中には
日本の金融政策に何か強い発言をしてはいるが、インタゲを言っているわけではない
ように思える学者も入っていますので。馬車馬さんはそもそも、野口氏の「リフレ派」
という括りを問題にしていたのであって、野口氏の「主張」を問題にしていたわけでは
なかったのでは?

それと、「論理の組み立てが逆」というのもよくわからないです。野口先生は、リフレ派
の定義について、十分条件とはどこでもいっていませんよね。そして、もし十分条件と
すれば為替派などを入れていることの説明がつかないが、必要条件とすればまったく
矛盾がないのですから、これは必要条件と考えるのが論理的思考というものでしょう。
明らかに不自然な解釈をしておきながら、そこで生まれる齟齬を批判するというのは、
正当な批判とは思われません。

Posted by: 通りすがり | December 27, 2004 at 01:36 AM

田中様:

ご指摘の部分ですが、田中さんのブログのコメント欄で申し上げたとおり、日銀がインフレを起こすだけの意思と能力を備えているならばアコードは不要ですし、逆に政府と日銀が協調してもインフレに出来ないのであればやはりアコードは不要です。ですから、アコードを議論する前提条件は日銀の金融政策は必要条件ではあるが、政府と協調することで十分条件を満たすことが出来る、ということと同義であるとの理解から書いたコメントです。私自身はここを自明と感じているのでご指摘のコメントのとおりに書いたのですが、田中さんが誤用とおっしゃる以上どこかに行き違いがあるのでしょうね。その点については、明示的に書かれていないことを引用した私の不備であると思いますので謝罪させていただきます。

それから、binding contractとしてのアコードはインフレターゲットではありません。これは
田中さんが引かれたバーナンキの言葉の「ルール」そのものです。田中さんは随分前のコメントで政府と日銀が協調しないNEが得られたこと、アコードがbinding contractの文脈で解釈可能であると書いておられますので、インフレターゲットの文脈で考えておられないようだ、と書いたわけです。

どちらにせよ、田中さんの意に沿わない引用をしたことについてはお詫び申し上げます。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 27, 2004 at 09:37 PM

議論が混乱しているのではないでしょうか。野口氏がリフレ派をどう定義しているかは、野口氏や田中氏の主張自体とは別と思います。かりに野口氏が強い意味の十分論者であったとしても(必ずしもはそうではない気がしますが)、リフレ派そのものは必要条件と考えるべきで、そこに矛盾はありません。なぜなら、リフレ派すなわち金融政策なくしてリフレなしという金融政策必要条件論の部分集合が金融政策があればリフレができるという十分条件論となる訳だからです。野口先生があのHotwiredの文章でいっているのは、金融政策が十分条件かどうかはともかく、少なくとも「金融政策なくしてリフレなし」は世界的な経済学者の合意なのだということだと思います。この「金融政策なくしてリフレなし」には馬車馬さんも同意されているようですから、以上のように解釈すれば、馬車馬さんが野口氏のこの文章を批判する必要はなかったということなります。

Posted by: 通りすがり | December 28, 2004 at 02:44 PM

通りすがり様:

まず、インフレターゲットが野口氏の主張であるか、リフレ派の定義に関わるか、について。
エントリー本文の『インフレターゲットのような真のデフレ対策』のリンク先をご参照いただきたいのですが、『インフレ・ターゲティングに反対し、「良いデフレ」論を吹聴している多くのエコノミスト』など、全体的にインフレターゲットは氏の「党派的な」定義に関わるものとして語られていると思います。野口氏自身もそう主張されているのでしょうが(ご自身をリフレ派と定義するなら)、おっしゃるとおり私は特にその点を問題にはしていません。そもそも、通りすがりさんご自身が『この文章は、あくまで経済論壇の見取り図を示すためのもの』とおっしゃっておられますし(『この文章』がここで挙げたリンク先を含むのかどうか、明示的に示されてはいませんが・・・)。

論理の組み立てが逆という点について。私の議論の組み立ては、
氏のリフレ派の定義は「金融政策は十分条件」である→氏のリフレ派の括りには必要条件派も含んでいるので不整合→氏の括りではこのような不整合の存在は避けがたく、よってこのような党派的な括りは不毛
というものです。これに対して、通りすがりさんはこの流れの2番目、氏の括りに必要条件派が含まれていることから論理がスタートし、そこからリフレ派の定義は必要条件であると主張されています。少なくとも、私のエントリーへの反論としては論理の組み立てが逆なわけです。氏の括りに必要条件派が含まれているというのは当然私も同意しますし、そこからリフレ派の定義は必要条件であると導けることにも当然同意します。議論がすれ違ってしまっていますよね。

それにしても、このやりとり、年内には終わらせるようにしませんか。当初の通りすがりさんの「野口氏に自説はある」というご指摘については、私は一番最初のコメントで文中の非を認めてるわけですし。田中さんのブログのほうでは書いたのですが、一段落した時点でこの点については本文に追記する予定です。最初はコメント欄見れば分かるのでOKと思っていたのですが、ここまで長くなるとおそらく誰も読んでくださらないので。
(付記:てにをはを中心に表現を一部修正。28日8時35分)

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 28, 2004 at 07:34 PM

田中さんもご自身のブログのコメントで申しておりましたが、問題は、馬車馬さんにこの種の論争が意味のある対話として成立するのに必要な知的な誠実さが欠けている点にあると思います。はっきり言いますが、この馬車馬さんのエントリーは、野口氏を貶めようとするだけのものであって、批判の名には値しないと思います。あるテキストにある解釈をすると、テキスト全体が矛盾が生じるとすれば、それはその解釈に問題があると普通は考えるわけです。これを、馬車馬さんは、著者がおかしいと言い張っているのです。

野口氏がリフレ派をインタゲ論者とも十分論者とも定義してはいなことは、野口氏の書いたものを少しでも読んでいれば自明です。ミシュランではインタゲ反対派のシニョレッジ論者、丹羽春喜氏までがリフレ派になっていますから、リフレ派の定義としては金融政策必要条件以外の解釈はなりたちません。馬車馬さんが引用した『インフレ・ターゲティングに反対し、「良いデフレ」論を吹聴している多くのエコノミスト』というのは、野口氏が金融緩和反対論者のよくある属性を述べた連載初期の文章で、リフレ派の定義を述べた文章とは関係ありませんよね(こうした細かいごまかしも「誠実さ」を疑われる点につながると思います)。

結局すべての問題は、馬車馬さんが、「野口氏のリフレ派の定義は「金融政策は十分条件」である」と思いこんでしまった点にあると思います。しかし、その馬車馬さんの思い込みには何の根拠もありません。こうした点をきちんと認める誠実さがない限り、知的対話などは永遠に無理だろうと思います。

Posted by: 通りすがり | December 29, 2004 at 01:17 AM

『誠実さがない』ので対話は無理、と言われてしまうと、私の不徳の致す所で大変遺憾でありますと申し上げるより他無いわけですが。

私は私なりに自らの思うところを「知的に」説明してきたつもりですが、その説得力についてはここを訪れる読者の方々の判断にゆだねたいと思います。対話は無理というお言葉も頂いたことですし、この件で私がコメントをするのはこれでひとまず最後にしましょう。

コメントの数々、どうもありがとうございました。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 30, 2004 at 02:01 AM

「誠実さ」について、当方の真意が誤解なきよう補足します。もし馬車馬さんの野口氏批判が、「野口氏のリフレ派即ち金融政策必要条件という括りは意味がない、重要なのは十分条件かどうかだ」というならば、互いに見解は違っても対話は成立したと思います。当方は、この括りは動かない日銀をどう動かすかという戦略的観点から意味があると思っていますが、異論はあるだろうと思うからです。しかし、馬車馬さんは、「野口氏のリフレ派の定義は「金融政策は十分条件」である」とあくまでも主張し続けました。そのような強い主張をするのなら、まずはミシュランほか野口氏の関連するテキストを検討すべきなのに、それもせずにです。そして、当方の証拠を無視し続けました。当方は、科学的な論争とは論理や証拠を持ち寄って認識の齟齬を埋める作業と考えていますが、それが成立するには、正当な論理や証拠は認め合う「誠実さ」が必要です。その土俵がなければ議論などいくらしても無駄です。今後のためご留意いただければ幸いです。

Posted by: 通りすがり | December 30, 2004 at 09:47 PM

1年以上もたってコメントしても無意味かもしれませんが…

馬車馬さんの批判の主旨は、「リフレだのアンチリフレだのとレッテルを貼って経済政策の上っ面だけを議論するのはもう十分だろう。その裏側にある本質的な考え方について、学者の方々には議論を深めていただきたいのだが」だと思います。
他の方々は、この主旨から逸れた細部について指摘されているように見受けられます。

例えば、野口氏の文章が「人の名前を列挙して相手を説得する」目的かどうかは関係ないことです。(人名引用と文章全体との関係から、私にはそのような目的にしか受け取れませんが…人それぞれ受け止め方が違うでしょうし議論の対象外でしょう。)

また、リフレ派をどう定義するかも関係ないことです。野口氏のリフレ派の定義「日本経済の長期低迷からの脱出に関して、決定的に重要なのは金融政策であるとする立場」(この表現だとほとんど金融政策が十分条件と読み取れますが…)
問題なのは、十分条件でも必要条件でもこのリフレ派の定義に含めてしまっていることです。少なくとも両方を含めて『リフレ派の立場は、世界の学界レベルではすでに十分すぎるほどの合意を得られたものなのであって、完全に「決着済み」なのである』と語るには無茶があります。馬車馬さんが書かれた批判も当然でしょう。

Posted by: 馬好き | March 15, 2006 at 01:10 AM

馬好きさん、コメントありがとうございます。

個人的にはこのエントリーは色々と悔いが残るものがあります。ご指摘いただいたとおり、レッテル貼り(しかも、あいまいな定義に基づいた)は不毛だetcというのがこのエントリーの趣旨だったのですが、野口氏の個人名を出したために読者の関心が(または、コメント氏の関心が、というべきか)その一点に集中してしまう結果になりました。

私はたまにエントリーの趣旨をクリアにするために「批判の標的」を設定し、その批判から主題を語る、というスタイルを試すのですが、それが一番失敗した(趣旨がうまく伝わらなかった&勇み足の表現があった)のがこのエントリーだと思っています。ただ、この野口氏のエントリーを読んで「なんてこと書いてるんだorz」と思ったことがこのエントリーのきっかけでしたから、避け難いことだったのかもしれませんが。

本当は、これは直前まで書いていた量的緩和関連のネタと構想を温めていたインフレターゲット特集の仲立ち的なエントリーとして書いたもので、今せっせと書いているインフレターゲット特集は昨年の今ごろ書いていたはずでした。ただこのコメント欄の応酬で疲れ果てて棚上げしてしまったら、実に一年も遅れる体たらくに相成ったのですが。

エントリーで「もしかしたら筆者の知らないところで高邁なる論説が展開されているのかもしれないが、『インフレターゲティングのような真のデフレ対策』とか無邪気に書いているのを見るとその可能性は低いように思える」と書いた理由も、先週書いたインフレ・ターゲット(4)でやっと説明できたんですよね・・・。

実はこの「リフレ派の定義」の議論の続きは「今週のThe Economist:日はまた昇る」のコメント欄で微妙に再開されていたりします。そちらも合わせてご覧いただければと思います。

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference 蛇足として:日本の「経済論壇」はどうなってるんだ:

» 決着つける [Economics Lovers Live]
●「サラリーマン」の言葉の由来の最終決着をつける覚悟です。挑戦者募集中。 それと課題を通り越してトラウマ街道爆走中のもうとっくに期限切れの書評も今晩寝ないで書... [Read More]

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» 経済学者(?)と科学者 [ひろのきまぐれ日記]
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