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ODAという自己満足

2週間ほど前、「金貸しがエライ理由」でODAの話を少し書いたときに気になったことがある。一応書くにあたって外務省のHPとかを軽く見て回ったのだが、記述に現実感がまるで無いのだ。『「人間の安全保障」は人間中心の視点を導入する考え方であり、紛争・平和と開発をつなぐ概念と捉えることで意見が一致した』とか書いてある。あっそう、それがどうした?という話だ。

「貧困削減についての具体的取り組み」の項目を見ると、『持続的な成長のためには、民間セクターが重要な役割を果たすことから、投資促進、経済活動の円滑化のためにODAを活用することが必要であり、交通網や通信網の整備・構築といった経済社会基盤(インフラ)の整備を通じ、人、物、情報の流れを円滑化し、民間セクターの活動を促進させることを明記することで意見が一致した。』とか書いてある。どこがどう具体的なのだ。とにかく一事が万事この調子である。以上は新ODA中期政策論点整理タスクフォースとかがまとめた論点整理から引用したものだが、メンバーは政府から小遣いをもらって会議室で昼寝をしていたに違いない。

あんまりな内容に呆れながら色々考えたのだが、どうもODAについてはお粗末なコメントや理解が多すぎるような気がする。そんなわけで、今回はまずODA政策のお粗末さに触れてから、なんでそんなことになったのかということを考えてみたい。

援助資金はあげるよりも貸した方が途上国の自助努力を促す?

日本のODAのひとつの特徴は借款が圧倒的に多いこと、というのは良く言われる話だ(注)。それに対して、「金はあげてしまうよりも貸したほうが相手のやる気を刺激するから良い」というのがずいぶん前から外務省が使っている理屈なわけだが、そもそもこの辺りからして怪しい。少し考えてみるとおかしな点がいくつも出てくる。

単純な例を考えてみよう。今あなたは日本からお金をもらって、とあるプロジェクトに従事している(単純化のため、工場で働くのはあなた一人だとしよう。ふたり以上いると、実は一挙に話が複雑になる)。日本からの資金のおかげで工場や流通経路は万全だ。後は努力しさえすれば100万円の利益が見込める。努力しなければゼロ円だ。この場合、あなたがよほどの怠け者でないかぎり、働いて100万円の利益を手にしたいと思うのではないだろうか。

他方、あなたは日本からお金を借りて(もらうのではなく)工場や流通経路を整備し、プロジェクトを開始したとしてみよう。今あなたは返済の義務を抱えているから、せっせと努力して100万円の利益が出ても、そのうち50万円は日本政府に払わなければならない。一方で、努力を怠った場合の利益は相変わらずゼロ円だ。この場合、あなたは日本政府への借金を踏み倒すことになる。財布の中身は空っぽなのだから、返済など出来るわけが無い。ニヤニヤしながら日本政府に「いやぁ、返済出来そうにないです」と言えばよい。後はパリクラブとか言うところで、先進諸国があなたの借金を棒引きにするかリスケジュールするかを眉をしかめながら議論してくれる。その結果がどうなろうと、あなたがびた一文返済しないということには変わりないので、気にする必要など無い。

さて、この2つの例を比べたとき、どちらがあなたのやる気を刺激するだろうか?合理的に考えるなら、間違いなく前者だ。前者では努力の代価として100万円が得られるのに、後者では努力の代価は半額の50万円に過ぎないからだ。金はあげるよりも貸したほうが途上国の自助努力を刺激するという外務省の理屈は、これで否定されてしまった。

ここまで読んで「でも直感的には借金を抱えた人のほうが頑張って働くんじゃないの?」と思われた方は、「金貸しがエライ理由」を一読していただきたい。国内金融では、確かに借金を抱えた人のほうが働く。なぜなら、努力を怠って借金を踏み倒したときに相応のペナルティを課せられるからだ。連帯保証人の娘の職場に借金取りが押しかけるかもしれないし、ようやく手に入れたマイホームがあっさり差し押さえを食らうかもしれない。マイホームならまだしも、給料を差し押さえられた日にはクビは確実だ。

つまり、国内金融では、借金をして頑張ったときの利益(借金返済後)は50万円だが、頑張らなかったときの利益はマイナスになるのだ。このマイナスとは、家庭の崩壊だったり、マイホームや職を失うことだったりする。逆に言えば、この状況で努力をすれば50万円に加えて家族の安寧や職の安定が得られるわけで、これは100万円以上の価値を持つ。だから、借金を抱えた人はそうでない人以上に働くのだ。

しかし、「金貸しがエライ理由」で書いたとおり、この理屈は国際金融、特に国家間金融では通用しない。ケニア政府が借金を踏み倒したからといってナイロビの首相官邸を差し押さえる訳にはいかない。やったら戦争になる。金は貸したほうが途上国のためになる、という理屈を考え付いた(おそらくは)外務省の人間は、国内金融と国際金融の決定的な違いについて考えが及ばなかったのだろう。

まぁ、経済学の世界でもこういった「モラルハザード」という考え方がメジャーになってきたのはここ2~30年のことなので、もしこの理屈がそれ以前に作られたものであれば、批判するのは酷というものかもしれない。ただし、この理屈は途上国に貸し出すのは日本だけという仮定も必要で、お金は貸すのではなく与えるものという戦略を持つ他の先進国と競合した場合にも無効になる。相当にもろい理屈だということは間違いない。

実のところ、この理屈が実は間違っていた、という点は問題ではない。少し考えれば間違いであると分かるような理屈が、検証もされずに10年以上放置されている現状が問題なのだ。その間に欧米諸国はどんどん彼らなりの哲学を鍛えている。どのような場合には借款でも大丈夫で、どのような場合には供与でなければならないのかという線引きについても研究が進んでいる(実用に耐える理論になっているかどうかは知らないが、少なくとも指針になる程度の完成度はあったはず)。


自己満足としてのODA

これは不思議といえば不思議な状況だ。世界一の援助大国(最近はアメリカについで2位)でありながら、それを支える理屈がどうしてこうもお粗末なのだろうか(冒頭で紹介した論点整理も含めて)。または、大金を動かす上記のような指針に対して、なぜこうも無関心・無神経なのだろうか。

そもそも、何で日本がODAをやっているのかというと、

・自己満足
・慈善目的
・自国の外交交渉力の強化(捕鯨賛成に一票入れてもらうとか)
・対象国の各種利権の獲得(石油とかレアメタルとか)
・対象国の経済発展による日本経済への波及効果の期待
・賠償金の代わり(少し特殊なのでここでは無視する)

といった理由が挙げられる。ODA大綱によれば、ODAの目的は「国際社会の平和と発展への貢献を通じて、我が国の安全と繁栄を確保」することらしいので、3番目~5番目になる。ところが、ODA白書や評価報告書を読んでみても、我が国の安全と繁栄にODAがどれだけ資したかという記述は全くない。すがすがしいくらいにゼロだ。

代わりに、ODAの実績としてずらずら並べられているのは、「ODAをいくら使ったか」ということだけだ。いくら使ったか、というのは、上の議論から言って全く本質的ではない。その金がどう成果を挙げたかをこそ書くべきなのに、その部分についての外務省の説明は貧弱の一言に尽きる(これについては次回)。

逆に、ODAの実績が「いくら使ったか」である、というところから日本のODAの目的を逆算すると、「自己満足」の4文字が浮かんでくる。自己満足だから、その結果に対するチェックがどうしても甘くなる。金を払った段階で目的の過半は達成されてしまっているからだ。後は「日本のODAのおかげで津波から街を守れました」みたいなニュースがたまにあればそれでもう十分なのだろう。政府も、国民も。

もちろん、純粋に美しき慈善的精神で途上国を助けるためにODAを!と叫ぶ人もいるとは思うのだが、日本ではそういう人はみんな目をきらきらさせてアフリカに井戸を掘りに行ってしまい、日本の国益との兼ね合いや援助対象国のモラルハザードの問題など、泥臭い問題を解決するためにその情熱を傾ける人は少ない(ような気がする)。だから、こういう方々の議論は美しいのだが説得力がまるでなく、結局自己満足としてのODAの枠からほとんどはみ出さない(こういうことを書くと怒られるのだろうか)。

結局のところ、確たる哲学を持たず、ただ自己満足のためにODAを垂れ流した結果が、ODA利権を自民党の金城湯池とし、一方で日本の外交交渉力の強化にはほとんどつながらないという情けない現状を生んだのではないかと思うのだ。

この話、長くなったので次回に続きます。


本日のまとめ

ODAの基本方針にはいい加減な文言が多すぎる

「資金はあげるよりも貸したほうが途上国のやる気を刺激できる」というのは間違い

ODAは日本人にとって自己満足に過ぎなかったので、ODAの哲学も手法も鍛えられることはなく、結局まともに機能していない。


注:コメント欄でinariさんがご指摘くださっている通り、近年は有償と無償の割合がほぼ半々になっているようです。やはり、一時期批判が集中した後で方針を修正したのでしょうか。ただし、アメリカは9割以上が無償協力だったはずです。まぁ、だから日本も9割無償でやれというつもりも無いのですが。(2005年6月8日追記)

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Comments

こんにちは。馬車馬さん。

>ODAの基本方針にはいい加減な文言が多すぎる

わざとやっているのでしょうかね。

資金はあげるよりも貸したほうが、紆余曲折はありますが「途上国要人と某日本企業」の投げる金員の多寡を刺激できる。
そんな手口が確立されて早何年ってとこですか。
先日某国に援助が内定??しましたよ。
裏側は政治屋企業が主導ではないので、少しはマトモでしょうかね。

Posted by: 三郎 | January 31, 2005 at 01:25 PM

えっ?ODAって公共事業でしょ?
商社と相手国官僚のポケットを暖かくするのが目的の?
みたいな理解しか持ち合わせていませんでした。
勉強になったです。一度キチンと考えてみるべきだなと思いました。

Posted by: とおりすがりの読者 | January 31, 2005 at 10:26 PM

本筋とは関係ないんですが、
>日本のODAのひとつの特徴は借款が圧倒的に多いこと、というのは良く言われる話だ。
確かによく言われてるんでそうだと思ってたんですが、リンク先の資料の2003実績では、贈与5,266億円、借款5,577億円(債務繰延を含めても8,458億円)で、2国間で言えば6割程度が円借款とのこと。贈与分も結構あるんですね。外務省もがんばってるということでいいのかな?
資料の読み方間違ってたら笑ってやってください。
次回も楽しみにしています。

Posted by: inari | February 01, 2005 at 09:28 PM

三郎さん、レスポンスが遅れてごめんなさい。先週に引き続きテンパっておりまして・・・

なんか三郎さんもしかして事情通でいらっしゃいますか。私には何のことやらさっぱり分かりませんでした。パリクラブ方面の話はたまに聞くのですが、そちらの世界は全く疎いもので・・・

三郎さんのブログでその辺りの裏話を楽しみにしております。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 03, 2005 at 09:51 AM

通りすがりの読者さん、はじめまして。

私も酔っ払うと「ODAなんて全部やめてその分で途上国のVIPに賄賂贈ったほうが早いって」とかよく与太を飛ばしております。どうもODAというのは、おおっぴらに日本の国益を叫ぶことに憚りがあったせいか、すっかり目的意識がぐちゃぐちゃになっているように思えます。

一方で、マクロな視点から「貧困の解消」みたいな大上段の議論を出来る人もいないので(みんなもっとミクロな井戸掘りのほうが好きなようで)、国益の話もなければ途上国経済をどう救済するかという議論もない、ぐだぐだな状態になっているのかな、と。このあたり、いわゆる左翼の方々にもっと頑張ってもらいたいところなんですが・・・。

今後ともよろしくお願いします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 03, 2005 at 09:59 AM

inariさん、ご指摘ありがとうございます。

・・・なんかそんな感じですね。←引用するならまじめに読んでおけよという感じですが。週末辺りに時系列の変化を調べてみることにします。なんか5年位前まで4分の3以上が借款だったような気がするのですが・・・うーん、いつ変えたんでしょうね。

都合よく次回は今回の続きを書く予定でしたので、次回訂正を入れようかと思います。どうもありがとうございます。助かりました。

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