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札割れのお話(1) 日銀当座預金というキノコの苗床

なんだかえらい勢いで日銀のオペが札割れておりますが。

この話、金融政策を考える上ではそれなりに重要なトピックとされているのだが、そのわりにはそもそも「札割れってなに?」という辺りがあまり詰められていないような気がする。前から少し考えていたのだが、この辺りのマネーマーケットの事情がほとんど世間様に知られていないせいで、当座預金残高とか非不胎化介入関連の議論で賛否両論が見事に噛み合わないという事態を招いているようにも思うのだ。そんなわけで、今日はその辺りのマネーマーケット事情について書いてみたい。


そもそも、金融調節って何?

そもそもの話から入りたいのだが、日銀がやっている買いオペだの売りオペだのという金融調節は、利下げと利上げのときだけに行っているわけではない。経済学では、金利を引き下げたいと思ったら中央銀行は民間銀行から債券などを購入し(=買いオペレーション)、利上げしたいときには逆に債券を売る(売りオペレーション)ものだとされている。じゃぁ、金利水準を現状のまま固定したいときには中央銀行は何もしなくて良いのか?というと、これが全然違う。

金融市場にはさまざまな資金の流れが反映されている。例えば、月末は給料の支払いがあったり、月末清算の取引があったりして皆が銀行から預金を引き出す。すると、銀行は手持ちのキャッシュが少なくなるので、あわてて銀行間の金融市場(インターバンクマーケットまたはマネーマーケット)でお金を借りようとすることになる。ところが、月末はどの銀行もキャッシュが足りなくなっているので、マネーマーケットでは誰もお金を貸してくれない。むしろ借りたくてしょうがない。こうなると、「もういくらでも出すから金を貸してくれ!」っていう銀行が出てきたりして、短期金利は急上昇することになる。

逆に、公的年金から年金の支払いがあったりすると、金融市場の外側から突然大量の資金が銀行にぽんと振り込まれる。お年寄りも入金直後にお金を下ろすわけではないから、今度はマネーマーケットはキャッシュであふれることになる。この場合どの銀行も「キャッシュが余ってるからだれか借りてくれ!」となって、今度は短期金利が急落してしまう(ちなみに、今月の15日はその日にあたる)。

この場合、日銀はキャッシュが余っている(資金超過)15日に債券の売りオペを行い、キャッシュが足りない(資金不足)月末に買いオペをする(または、現先オペというのを使って15日から月末まで債券を都銀に貸して代わりに現金を借りてもよい)ことで、両方の金利を安定させることが出来る。実際には、国債の入札(資金不足要因)や公務員の給料の支払い(資金超過)、満期を迎えた国債の償還(資金超過)などなど、恐ろしく複雑な資金需給のスケジュールがあり、日銀の調節担当者はその辺りの動きを読んで、いつ買いオペをし、いつ売りオペをするかを考えているわけだ。

更に、月によっても資金過不足にはむらがある(期末は資金不足になるし、税の払い込みが集中する4~6月なども資金不足になりやすかった・・・はず)。調節担当者はその辺りも考慮に入れて、ここでは満期まで4ヶ月の短期国債を買い入れようとか(これは4ヶ月間民間銀行に金を貸すということ)、ここでは46日間の売現先(国債を売ると同時に、46日後の買戻しも約束すること。つまり、46日間マーケットから資金を吸収することになる)をやろうとか、色々考えなければならない。

余談だが、何年か前に日銀が為替介入のすぐ後に売りオペを行い、いわゆる量的緩和論者な方々から「そこで資金を吸収したら非不胎化介入にならないではないか」という批判を受けたことがあった(うろ覚えだが)。それに対して日銀の担当者が「そんなこと言われたって日々の入り繰りってもんがあるんだからさぁ」とぼやいた、という記事が流れていたのを相場端末か何かで見た記憶がある。とりあえずここまで読んでくださった読者の方はこの日銀の担当者の気持ちをご理解いただけるのではないか。その手の批判をする前に、まず日々の資金過不足のスケジュールをチェックしなければ意味がないのだ。大概の場合、為替の介入額よりも日々の資金ポジションの変化のほうが大きいし。


ゼロ金利時代のマネーマーケット

通常、都銀は必要最低限のキャッシュしか手元においておかない。無駄なキャッシュを抱えているということはそれだけ利子を損しているということだからだ。だから、各銀行のマネーマーケットディーラーは手持ちのキャッシュの量をぎりぎりまで切り詰めながら、一方で「お金が足りなくなっちゃいました!」ということが絶対に起こらないように努力する。そこが腕の見せ所なわけだ。ちなみに、お金が足りなくなって決済できなくなることをデフォルトといい、マネーマーケットの世界で大恥をかく。ついでに重役は日銀本店で始末書を土産に謝罪行脚をすることになる。まぁ、そんなことはめったにないのだが。

ところが、ゼロ金利になり、「金利がゼロになったので代わりにマネーの量を指標にしましょう」ってなノリで当座預金残高(これは民間銀行が保有するキャッシュの量そのもの)の増額が始まると、事情が全く変わってきた。金利が限りなくゼロに近づいたため、都銀のディーラーはあまり細かく資金のやりくりをする必要がなくなった。例えば、今月の14日と21日にその銀行はかなりのキャッシュが必要になると分かっていたとする。以前であれば、14日と21日にそれぞれ1日だけお金を借りていたのだが、ゼロ金利になると14日から21日までお金を借りっぱなしにして、15日から20日までは不要なキャッシュを金庫に放り込んでおいたほうが有利になる。手数料も節約できるし、金利リスクもなくなる(あまり正確な表現ではないが)し、何より楽だ。

この結果、当座預金の平均残高は上昇する。もちろん、25日から翌月の4日まで借りていれば期末残高も増える。

さらに、この時期銀行の経営状態はかなりやばいところに来ていた。1月の段階でディーラーは考える。「今だったら低利である程度の資金を借りることが出来る。でも、3月の決算期になったらどんな爆弾が出てくるか分からない。だったら当面キャッシュは要らないけど、今のうちに4月までの資金を借りておこう」と。日銀としても、期末になってあわてる銀行が出たり、挙句デフォルトなんぞされたらタマラン、ということで、積極的に期末を越える長めの買いオペ(≒長期の貸出)を行って資金を供給したわけだ。で、その資金は決算期対策用なので、1月から3月までは金庫で眠ることになる(実際はお金に色がついているわけではないので、こういう表現は正確ではないが、ニュアンス重視ということでお許しいただきたく)。この場合も、当座預金残高は1月から4月まで増加する。

このように、ゼロ金利や銀行のクレジットリスクの上昇、更にはY2KやRTGS(説明省略)といった要素が重なって、銀行は以前よりもかなり多くのキャッシュを手元に(つまり、日銀の当座預金口座に)置くようになった。これが、当座預金残高増加の背景だ。金融政策論議の不思議(1)でも書いたのだが、こういう構図を目の当たりにして「当座預金残高を増やせば景気回復」って言われてもなぁ、というのが、債券市場関係者が等しく共有する感覚なのだと思う。その当座預金は金庫の中でキノコの苗床になってるんですが、と。エノキとか(金庫の中暗いし)。

経済学っぽくいうならば、当座預金残高の増加は(マネーマーケット内での)キャッシュの流通速度の低下によってのみ達成されているということだ。

札割れの話をするはずが、前置きが長くなりすぎてしまった(でも、この辺は札割れを理解するうえでどうしても必要だと思うんですよ)。というわけで、札割れの話は次回。


本日のまとめ

マネーマーケットでは、日によってキャッシュが足りない日と余る日があり、それを放置すると金利が極端に変動してしまう。それを平らにならすのが金融調節。

当座預金残高が増えたのは、日銀が資金を供給したから、という側面と、民間銀行がゼロ金利や経営危機などの要因から必要以上のキャッシュを必要とした、という側面がある。どちらが欠けても、キャッシュは増えない。


#筆者の知識は結構古い上、だいぶ忘れて不正確な部分もあると思いますので、玄人の方のツッコミをお待ちしております。あと、慌てて書いたので「金融政策論議の不思議」シリーズで書いたこととちゃんと整合しているかどうかも不安なのですが、その辺りのツッコミも歓迎ということで。

追記: 本石町日記さんのご指摘を受けて本文を一部修正、一部追加。(2004年2月13日12時2分)

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Comments

馬車馬さん、こんにちは。
用語のこまかなことですみません。業界的には、資金決済の失敗はデフォルトでしょうか。そのまま破綻すると困るので、凡ミスなら昔は日銀貸し出しで対応し、そして怒られる。今はロンバートで、これは金利はちょっと高いですが、自由使用。怒られません。フェイルは債券取引において、(指定された銘柄の)債券の受け渡しができないことで使われます。札割れの話、楽しみにしております。気が付いたことなどあれば書き込みさせていただきます。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | February 11, 2005 at 07:47 PM

日銀は、ゼロ金利のもとで、日銀当座預金と短国が完全に代替的になっていると言っている。そうだとすると、日銀当座預金はいくらでも積み上がるはず。だけど、本当は、短国オペには0.001%の金利が付いているので、付利ゼロの日銀当座預金と真には代替的でない。それだけでしょ。そうした状況に、日銀の話で飯食っている記者が「札割れの話、楽しみにしております」って食いついている。この話止めた方がいいですよ。不毛な議論に終わるに決まっている(本当には議論になっていない)。

Posted by: ??? | February 12, 2005 at 10:37 PM

本石町日記さん、コメントありがとうございます。

そうでした・・・確か別のマーケットではフェイルと呼んだんですが(swap?)、混同してました。ありがとうございます。後で修正しておきます。

それにしても、ロンバートって怒られないんですか!てっきりあれはあれで叱られるんだと思ってました。導入当時にマネーマーケットのディーラーが「そういうのを作るのはいいけどこっちにも面子ってもんがあるからなぁ」と言っていたので。この際、ロンバートを使ったら頭取の直筆の始末書を提出させるようにすれば、もう少し当座預金残高を増やせるかもしれませんね(笑)。

次回の記事も本石町日記さんにとって目新しい情報はあまりないと思います。どちらかというと採点者の楽しみを味わっていただきたいなと。よろしくお願いします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 13, 2005 at 02:09 AM

???さん、コメントありがとうございます。

ご明察のとおり、0.1bpsの話を軸に、色々説明できたらなと考えています。

議論になってないとのご指摘ですが、本文の冒頭でも書いたとおり、札割れというのはそもそもどんなものかという情報が少なく、それゆえに議論があまり深まらない、ないしは市場関係者と話が噛み合わないことがままあると思いましたので、僭越ながらその辺りの情報提供が出来ればなというのがこの文の主目的です。ですから、これ自体が議論のネタになることはないのではないかと。読者の方々が、マーケットのミクロな世界の実情の一部に触れていただければ私としては十分です。

それから、不毛になるに決まってるとのご指摘ですが、私はそうは思っていません。ロンバートのことを忘れていたことにも気づかされましたし、ロンバートを使っても怒られないというのは私にとっては新鮮でした。もちろん、他の読者の方々にとってどうかは良く分かりませんが。少しでも役に立っていればいいなあと祈るばかりです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 13, 2005 at 02:21 AM

馬車馬さん、どうもです。
ロンバートをどう受け止めるかは、ユーザー(銀行)側の心情が大きいです。ロンバートは、裁量主義であった日銀貸し出し(いわゆるLLR=レンダー・オブ・ラスト・リゾート)政策を、申請があれば機械的に貸し出しを行う仕組に改めたものです。ただ、かつて始末書が必要だった時代の記憶がなお根強いため、銀行によっては日銀から金を借りるのに抵抗感を覚えるところもあります。それはそれで資金繰りの自助努力という意味では健全な意識でもあり、あえて否定すべきものでもないという面もあります。基本的には慣れの問題に過ぎず、現状では使い機会は滅多にないため、ロンバートへの抵抗感が払拭されていないのではないかと思います。別な言い方をすれば、日銀がやさしい対応を示しているのに、それまで厳しくされた銀行がなお立派に振舞っている、といったところでしょうか。
 なお、私にはロンバートがまだ十分に理解されていないことが、馬車馬さんとは逆の意味で新鮮でした。もっともこれは報道側の努力不足かもしれず、その点は反省も必要と思った次第です。むしろ、馬車馬さんのようにちょっと距離を置いた立場から論評して頂いた方が、当事者にとってはいろいろ気がつかされたり、盲点を突かれたりすると思いますので、エントリーの展開を楽しみにしております。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | February 13, 2005 at 12:49 PM

まぁ、私は20世紀に入ってからはマネーマーケットとは縁遠い世界に移ってしまったので、その辺りの比較的最近の事情に疎すぎるきらいがあります。単なるお題目として覚えていたので、いざというときに頭に浮かんでこないんですよね・・・

しかし、ディーラーの利便性とプライドのせめぎあいは皮膚感覚として良く分かります。生き馬の目を抜く世界にありながら、その辺のdisciplineは頑なに守られていたりして面白いですよね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 15, 2005 at 08:05 AM

はじめましてこんにちわ。
ここの管理人さんは売りオペについてすごい詳しいみたいなのでお願いします。
以下のURLで中央銀行の信用創造に関する経済シミュレーションを作ってるので、時間のあるときにでも見に来てください。
それでは失礼します。

Omotiが金融の講義をしながらPHP屋を捕獲するスレ
http://pc8.2ch.net/test/read.cgi/php/1132369238/163-

Posted by: Omoti | December 01, 2005 at 07:31 AM

Omotiさん、コメントありがとうございます。

とりあえず掲示板をざっと拝見しましたが、そもそもPHPという言葉が分からずに挫折しましたorz。それと、一応自分への縛りとして、これ以上ネットでの活動範囲を広げてしまうと本業に差しさわりが出るので(というか、現状ブログの更新にすら差しさわりがある有様ですから・・)、掲示板などには基本的に足を運ばないようにしています。あちらの方が動きが早いですし、3週間放置ということも出来ないでしょうから、私のようなやり方では不向きな場所だなと。

私がどれだけお役に立てるかはわかりませんが、何かご質問があればこちらにコメントをいただければと思います。それから、オペ関連は日銀のHPにかなり詳細な資料がありますので、そちらをあたって見るのもよろしいのではないでしょうか。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 04, 2005 at 11:51 PM

馬車馬さん、はじめまして
文章中のことで質問があります。

>満期まで4ヶ月の短期国債を買い入れようとか(これは4ヶ月間民間銀行に金を貸すということ)

とありますが、買うと貸すが同じというのはどういうことでしょうか?他の記事でも

>日銀からの買いオペ(=日銀からの貸出)
とありました。
(コメントだぶったらすみません)

Posted by: くまな | April 15, 2006 at 10:00 PM

くまなさん、はじめまして。コメントありがとうございます。

すみません、説明不足でした。満期まで4ヶ月の国債を日銀が買うということは、

今:   日銀は購入代金を民間に支払い、代わりに民間から国債(という紙切れ)を入手する

4ヵ月後: 日銀は償還資金(≒購入資金)を政府から入手し、代わりに国債を政府に変換する。同時に、政府は増税か、新規国債を同額発行することで民間からこの資金を吸収する。

ということになります。つまり、「今」日銀は民間に現金を供給し、4ヵ月後にそのお金を民間から回収することになります。つまり、これは日銀が民間に(国債を担保にして)お金を貸していることと同義なのです。

日銀が売りオペを行う場合、これと真逆のキャッシュフローが発生しますので、日銀が民間からお金を借りている(資金を吸収している)ことに等しいわけです。

別角度からの説明を「お金であることを保証するもの」に書いておきましたので、そちらもあわせてご覧いただければと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 17, 2006 at 10:12 PM

I couldn't refrain from commenting. Exceptionally well written!

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