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札割れのお話(2) 札割れのメカニズム

さて、そもそも日銀の金融調節(オペレーション)とはどういうものなのかは一通り説明したので、懸案の札割れの話に移りたい。まず札割れってそもそも何、という話から。

オペレーションの流れと札割れ

ここまで書いてきて未だに札割れとは何かを説明していなかったのだが、簡単に言えば前回説明したオペレーションを日銀が完全に実行できない状態のことだ。普通、日銀は買いオペが必要だなと思ったら、マーケットに対して、こういう銘柄の国債(例えば、短期国債367回債とか。ただし、買いオペは国債だけを買うのではない)を、いつ、(例えば)8000億円購入しますよ、と通知する。それを受けて各参加者がこの値段(利率)で、いくらまでなら売りますよ、と返答する。で、日銀は各参加者が出してきた値段を見て、安いものから(利回りの高いものから)8000億円分をピックアップして購入するわけだ。もし参加者の出した売値が横一線であれば、希望売却額に応じて8000億円を分割し(比例按分)、計8000億円を購入する。

このとき、参加者の売却希望総額(応札額)が8000億円に届かなかった場合、これを札割れと呼ぶわけだ。このとき、応札額全額が落札され、購入しきれなかった部分は日銀はあきらめることになる。

ゼロ金利でないときは、こういうことはめったに起こらない。前回説明したように、各銀行のマネーマーケットディーラーは支払い金利を節約するために手持ち資金をぎりぎりに切り詰めているので、いざというときの日銀からの買いオペ(=日銀からの貸出)はのどから手が出るほど欲しい。日銀も、都銀ディーラーがキャッシュを欲しがるときに買いオペを実施するわけで、買いオペはいつも大人気となる(予定額の数倍の応札があることはざら)。

ところが、ゼロ金利になり、日銀が「当座預金残高が増えれば金融緩和なんです」、と言い出すと、これまた前回説明したような状況からディーラーは手持ち資金を切り詰めるのを止めてしまう。ちょっと無駄にキャッシュを持っていても大したコストにはならないのだから。それに日銀もマーケットがキャッシュ不足になっていなくても積極的に買いオペでキャッシュの供給に勤めたので、1月末現在でマーケットには31.6兆円ものキャッシュが積み上がった。ちなみに、これは5年前の約10倍である。

こうなってしまうと、もうディーラーもいよいよキャッシュを必要としなくなる。極端な話、目先6ヶ月間の資金手当てを全て済ませてしまったら、もう日銀の買いオペなど用無しだ。例え金利がゼロ%でも、使わないことが分かっている資金を借りるのは事務コストの無駄でしかない。札割れが起こるのはこういう状況だ。

「札割れは現状の量的緩和政策が限界に来た証」みたいな主張は大体上のような理解から出て来る。まあ、一般論としては間違っていない。だが、この説明で最近の札割れを理解しようとするのは無理がありすぎる。マネーマーケットにキャッシュが溢れているのは今に始まった話ではない。2年前から当座預金残高は30兆円を超えていたのだから。一方で札割れが頻発し始めたのは昨年の10月くらいからだ。

それに、事務コストの大半はおそらく人件費であり、固定費用なので、新たに取引をしても事務コストは増えない。本当にゼロ金利であったら、例え全く必要がなくても借りておくという判断があっても良いはずなのだ。


で、札割れの原因は?(長文注意!)

じゃぁなんで今になって札割れが増えたんよ、という話なのだが、良く分からない。ざっと短資会社のレポートも(公開されているものだけ)見て回ったのだが、解説しているものは見当たらなかった。というわけで、以下の説明はあくまで筆者の仮説である。で、あんまり堅く書くと読むほうも書くほうも飽きてしまいそうなので、ライブっぽいノリにチャレンジ。


1. 金利が完全にゼロになってないから?

まず真っ先に考えるのは、「要するに本当にゼロ金利にはなってないからだめなんじゃないの?」ということだ。このへんを見ると、オペの落札利回りはあらかた0.001%(以下、0.01%=1bp(ベーシスポイント)と呼称)に張り付いていて、本当の意味でゼロ金利になっているものはない。0.001%(0.1bp)と言うとカスみたいだが、8000億円を3ヶ月借りれば200万円だ。まぁ、利払い額としてはカス同然だが、コストとしては無視出来ない。ちなみに、なぜここがゼロ%にならないかというと、日銀のオペはまず短資会社が全額を引き受け、それから都銀などに分配するため、その手数料が乗っかっているからだ(確か。確認したかったのだが資料が見当たらなかった)。(コメント欄でご指摘いただきましたが、短資会社が引き受けていたのは随分昔の話で、今はそんなことはないとのことです。金利が0.001%より下がらないのは、単にそこが下限金利だからであり、手数料は関係ないそうです。次の段落についても、同様に時代遅れなものであることが分かりましたので取り消します。詳しくはコメント欄をご覧ください。)

話がそれるが、こういう事情から、札割れになるとマーケットに供給できなかったキャッシュは短資会社が保有することになる。で、短資会社というのは銀行ではないので、短資会社が保有するキャッシュはマネーサプライにカウントされる。一方で銀行の保有するキャッシュはマネーサプライにはカウントされないので、オペが成功するよりも札割れになったほうがマネーサプライが増えるというおかしなことが起こる。まぁ、札割れが頻発した1月ですら、札割れの総額は1兆5千億足らずなので、700兆円のマネーサプライの中で大した影響力を持つわけではないが。

さて、こう書くと「じゃあその手数料の分を何とかすればいいじゃん!」と思うところだが、そうでもない。調べてみたら昨年の2月の段階でオペの落札レートは0.1bpで落ち着いている。この頃はさほど札割れが起きていたわけではないし、起きても4000億のうち3500億円は落札されている。今と同じ金利環境で、今よりも多額の当座預金残高を維持しながら札割れも起こっていなかったのだから、「金利が厳密にはゼロじゃないから」という理由で札割れを説明するのは無理がある。


2. 急落する短期国債利回り

こうなると、札割れが頻発し始めた昨年末から今年にかけて何が起こったのかを考えなければならなくなった。そこで試しに日銀のオペの内訳をプロットしてみたのだが、それが以下の図。

BOJ-operation-breakdown

とりあえず目に付いたのは短国(短期国債=TB。満期6ヶ月または1年のもの)の買いオペ額が順調に減少していること。代わりに手形(銀行とかが資金調達のために発行するもの)買入が増えている。手形は良く分からないが、短国の買いオペがなんで減少しているのかは不思議といえば不思議だ。しかも、1月は短国の買いオペが6回あったのだが、その半分の3回が札割れている。昨年12月はほとんど札割れがないのだが、11月も短国買いオペは6回中2回札割れている。

なんでだろと思って調べてみると、短国の金利が10月以降ものすごい勢いで低下している。昨年9月発行の1年債(361回債)の利回りは2.1bpなのに、11月発行の365回債は0.5bp、1月発行の369回債は0.2bpだ。4ヶ月足らずで利回り10分の1ってどういうことだ。これじゃぁ札割れが出ても不思議はない。

0.2bpで短国を買った銀行からその短国を買い上げるには、それ以上に高い値段を提示しなければならない。0.2bpということは発行価格は99円99銭8厘なので、それよりも高い価格、例えば99円99銭9厘(=0.1bp)で日銀は買わなければならない。まぁそれでも99円99銭9厘(0.1b)でなら買えるんだから問題ないでしょ、という感じなのだが、これは違う。この短国を日銀に売った銀行は、購入額×0.1bp(要するに1厘分の利ざや)をゲットできるのだが、これだけならこの短国を満期まで保有して得られる利ざや(0.2bp)の半分でしかない。売却して得たキャッシュをもう一度再投資して、1年間で少なくとも0.1bpの金利を稼がなければ、結局この銀行は損をしてしまうのだ。で、そんな再投資先がマーケットにあるかといえば、ない。なにしろ、この短国を財務省から落札するのだってものすごく大変なのだ。1月に発行された短国369回債は発行額1兆6000億円だったのだが、これに対して応募額は561兆7671億円。倍率500倍の狭き門である。東大なんてメじゃない(この異常な倍率にはからくりがあるのだが、とりあえずその話は措いておく)。

だから、いくら日銀が有利な買値を提示したとしても、売った後の再投資に不安があれば銀行は売却には応じない。1年間で0.002%もの(!)利ざやを稼いでくれる虎の子をみすみす日銀なんぞにくれてやるわけにはいかないのである。とりあえず、これは札割れの原因のひとつではありそうだ。


3. 政府預金の隠れた変化

ただ、今度は「じゃぁなんでこんな急激に金利が下がったわけ?」という疑問が出てくる。それに、札割れは短国の買いオペだけで起きているわけではない。手形オペなど他のオペでも満遍なく起きている。こちらは金利はずいぶん前から下がりきっているから、別の事情があるということになる。

で、もう一度前掲の図とにらめっこしていていたら、もうひとつ気がついたことがある。直近3ヶ月だけオペの総額が増えているのだ(つまり、日銀がより多くのキャッシュを供給したということ)。過去にもオペ残高が60兆円を超えたことは2度ほどあるが、これは銀行の資金繰りに不安のあった2001、2002年度末だけの特殊なもので、この時期を除いてオペ残高が55兆円を超えたのは今回が初めてなのだ。

えー、日銀ってここにきて更なる「量的緩和」にチャレンジしてるわけ?と思ってベースマネーの額を確認してみると、全然増えてない。当座預金残高にいたっては減っている。日銀が2004年前半に比べて10兆円以上多くのキャッシュを供給しているのに、だ。つまり、マネーマーケットから資金が逃げていることになる。前回説明したように、我々がキャッシュを手元に多く持ったり、政府が税金を民間から吸い上げたりするとこういうことが起こるのだが、そのわりに発行銀行券残高は変化ないし、税金が振り込まれる日銀の政府預金も変化がない。訳分からん、ということで追跡をあきらめ、前回の記事だけアップして放り出したのだが、改めて日銀のバランスシートを細かくチェックすると、「対政府長期国債売現先」の項目だけがやたらと増えている。こんな感じ。

BOJ-Gov-Gensaki

これは何かというと、政府が余ったキャッシュをそのままにしておくのはもったいないので、一時的に発行した国債を買い戻して利払い額を節約しているのだ(売現先とは、日銀が将来買い戻す約束付で国債を売ること。政府の側から見ると、将来日銀に売却する約束付きで一時的に国債を買い戻していることになる)。もちろん、政府は国債を買い戻すときに日銀に代金を支払っているから、その分だけ政府預金は減ることになる。しかし、上でも書いたように政府預金には変化なし。つまり、この対政府売現先の増加を考慮に入れると、実は政府預金は激増していたのだ。その分だけマネーマーケットからキャッシュが失われ(政府が吸収してしまったので)、日銀は減少した当座預金残高を維持するために必死に買いオペを増額したというわけだ。しかし、そんな急にキャッシュを供給されても、すでにキャッシュでじゃぶじゃぶの都銀は吸収しきれず、今回の札割れ騒動となったのだろう。

ではなんで政府預金が激増したかというと、基本的には長期国債の発行増が主因だ。1月の数字を取ると、発行額が17.4兆円に対して償還額は5.3兆円。差し引き12.0兆円を政府が吸収したことになる。12月も14.7兆円の発行に対して6.1兆円の償還で8.6兆円の資金を吸収しているが、一方で恐らくは公務員へのボーナスの支払いなどで8.3兆円ほどを支払っているので、差し引きでほとんど影響はなかった。上の図で12月だけが落ち込んでいるのはそれが理由(12月は札割れもほとんど起きていない)。

基本的にはこの問題は数ヶ月で解消するはずだ。国債というのは資金を使うために発行しているわけで、ちょっと調達のタイミングと支出のタイミングがずれてしまったために、政府預金の大幅増→政府の一時的な国債買戻しという流れにつながってしまってはいるが、長期にわたって続く問題ではない。近いうちに政府は国債の調達額以上に支出を増やすようになり、自動的に当座預金残高も増加する(ただし、本来このような政府預金の大幅増は税金の払い込みが集中する4~6月期に起こるのが普通だ。それが今増えているという理由はよく分からない。もう少し政府の出納計画を細かく調べていれば分かりそうな気もするが)。

ついでに言うと、政府の一時的な国債買戻しは事実上短期での資金運用なので、これが最近の短期金利の急落につながっている可能性もある。そうすると話が一本の線でつながって非常に美しいのだが、本当のところがどうなのかは筆者には分からない。


政府に振り回される日銀

要するに、政府の資金ポジションの「むら」によって当座預金残高が減少し、それに日銀が引きずりまわされているという構図だ。どうせ数ヵ月後には解消する問題だからと放置することも出来たのだろうが、そうすると30兆円の下限を割り込んでしまうので政治的によろしくない。そこで健気に買いオペを増発し、今度は札割れが頻発して頭を抱えたというわけだ。正直、ここまで調べて筆者は日銀の調節担当者に同情した。もともと意味のない数字と分かっているだけに、徒労感もいや増すというものだ。

頑張れ、日銀の調節担当者。報われることはないと思うけど。


本日のまとめ

札割れが起きているのはここ数ヶ月の現象。金利水準はその前からずっと最低値の0.001%なので、ゼロ金利云々は今回の札割れとは関係ない。また、過去2年間日銀は大して札割れも起こさずに現状の当座預金残高を維持できていたので、最近の札割れが量的緩和の限界を示しているわけでもない。

札割れの原因は、国債の増発などによって政府が10兆円以上のキャッシュをマーケットから吸収し、その結果生じた当座預金残高の減少を食い止めるべく日銀が必死に買いオペをやったため。急増した買いオペをマーケットが吸収しきれず、札割れが頻発した。

これは短期的な要因なので、数ヶ月以内に自然と収束するはず。ただし、本来4~6月期に起こるはずの政府預金の増加が年始に起きている理由が分からない。その理由しだいでは結論が変わってくる。


追記:本石町日記さんから再度ご教授いただき、本文を一部修正しました(詳しくはコメント欄をどうぞ)。(2月16日10時18分)

追記2:極東ブログさんに取り上げていただいた記事を読んでやっと自分の文章の肝が理解できた気がしましたので(orz)、本文の第7段落(極東ブログさんに引用していただいた部分の直前)に文章を追記しました。また、まとめ部分(第1項目)にも文章を追加しました。内容は全く変わっておりません。こういうのもブログの面白いところですね。(2月21日19時11分)

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Comments

馬車馬さん、取り急ぎ気が付いたことを。
短資会社とオペの関係ですが、短資会社は大分前から特権的立場を失い、オペの全額引き受けはやっておりません。確か2000年ごろ、最後の特権であった手形オペで短資会社は入札の一参加者に過ぎなくなりました。従いまして、現状では短資会社はそれほど余った金は抱えていない(当座預金と準備預金の差=大半は郵政公社分)のが実情です。短資が死に金を抱える問題(説明可能ですが、長文になるので省略)は昔確かにありましたが、オペの透明性向上やなどで基本的にはほぼ解消されております。
 それと政府預金が増大傾向なのは、①国債大量償還に備えて国債の前倒し発行が行われている②税収が増えている③一方でFB・TB発行がそう減っていない-などが指摘されています。つまり、政府が足元潤沢にお金を抱えている状況にあるわけで、これは民間から吸い上げられた分ですから、これを埋める日銀の資金供給オペがかさんでいる構図でしょうか。
 これは推測ですが、外銀は一時期、ジャパンプレミアムの裏返しとしてマイナス金利で調達した円資金を
日銀当座預金に置いていました(数兆円規模)が、邦銀格上げなどでジャパンプレミアムが縮小してきた結果、外銀が“運用”する当座預金が減った面もあります。その分、当座預金残高を維持するための資金供給も必要になっている側面もありそうです。
 ではどうしたらいいのかはいろいろ考えられるのですが、長くなるのでとりあえずはこの辺で。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | February 14, 2005 at 05:27 PM

本石町日記さん、色々ご教授頂きましてどうもありがとうございます。やっぱり、私が考え付くくらいのことはもう市場では当たり前でしたか。

うーん、色々修正しなきゃいけませんね。というか、私がマーケットを離れてから随分事情が変わってるんですね。なんだか一気に老け込んだ気分です。orz

しかし、短資が引き受けてないとすると手形オペってなんでゼロ%にならないんでしょうかね?てっきり手数料だと思ってました・・・

しかし、この時期にもう税収増が見えてますか。早いなぁ。そうすると第2四半期は更に状況が悪化する可能性もありと。この辺りは財務省の入り繰りと新しい国債発行計画(もう発表されましたっけ)を確認しないといけませんね・・・。

とりあえず、ご指摘いただいた件は近日中に修正しようと思います。改めてどうもありがとうございました。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 15, 2005 at 08:19 AM

馬車馬さん、今度は私にも勘違いがありました。
まずは(当座預金と準備預金の差=大半は郵政公社分)との部分。公社は法的には準備預金制度の対象外なので、準備預金残高には含まれないと思い込んでしまいました。法的にはそうですが、日銀資金需給分類上は、準備預金に含まれていることが分かりました。従いまして、(当座預金と準備預金の差=証券会社、短資会社、一部系統金融機関)と訂正します。すみませんでした。足元の差は2兆円程度で、これは準備預金制度対象外の金融機関が抱える総計となります。
 それから「手形オペってなんでゼロ%にならないのか」について。この部分を私は何気に読み流してしまったのですが、実はオペの落札金利の刻みは1000分の1で、その最低水準が1000分の1です。これは0.001%未満(つまり0%)を日銀が認めていないためです。うっかりしてました。
 分かってるつもりでも、細かいとこを詰めていくとまだまだ甘いと思い知りました。日銀は時に技術的な事象をごまかして、自己正当化するきらいがあるので、騙されないように技術的な面はこちらも武装しないといけないので、助かります。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | February 15, 2005 at 02:50 PM

詳細なご説明ありがとうございました。おかげさまで半端な知識なりに話をまとめきることが出来ました。私自身、書いてみると良く分からないことだらけで・・・おまけに分かっていると思っていたことまで間違っていたり。こういうのは少し研鑽を怠るとすぐに置いてけぼりになるんだなと実感しました。

日銀にせよ、官僚にせよ、こちらの無知につけ込んである種の詭弁を弄するということはありますよね。まぁ、民間部門では当たり前にやっていることですし、そういう緊張感は結構好きだったりします(笑)。wholesaleならではの楽しみですよね。retailでやると犯罪になりかねませんが。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 18, 2005 at 07:32 PM

いつも楽しく読ませていただいています。
平易に書いてくださっているので、
自分にとっては少し難しいけどじっくり考えれば
理解できるレベルで、とても読みごたえがあります。

さて、しかし今回はどうしても分からないところがあります。

>本当の意味でゼロ金利になっているものはない。
>0.001%(0.1bp)と言うとカスみたいだが、
>8000億円を3ヶ月借りれば200万円だ。
>まぁ、利払い額としてはカス同然だが、
>コストとしては無視出来ない。

銀行は債券売却の対価を得るだけで、
お金を借りるわけじゃない、なのになんで
200万円も利払いしないといけないの??
という具合に読んでしまうのです。
基本的な部分で知識が足りないための誤読と思われます
ぜひその部分ご教示いただければ幸いです。

Posted by: とおる_ | July 02, 2006 at 06:36 PM

とおる_さん、コメントありがとうございます。コメントが遅れてごめんなさい。正直どの程度まで説明し、どの程度はしょるべきかは未だに悩んでおりまして、そうおっしゃっていただけると安心します。

引用いただいた部分ですが、これは日銀の買いオペですので、日銀が銀行の持つ債券を購入し、かつ決められた期日に売却する契約になります。購入時には日銀は都銀にお金を支払い、売却時に回収するわけですので、これは日銀が都銀に債券を担保に金を貸しているのと同義になるわけです。そのため、それについての金利を都銀は支払う必要があります。

または、都銀は手持ちの債券を日銀に渡している間、その期間に発生する金利を日銀に渡さねばなりません(所有者は日銀になりますので)。その分利払いが発生すると考えてもかまいません(ただし、利払い発生時期によって話がややこしくなりますが)。

そもそも、債券を買うことと金を貸すこと、債券を売ることと金を借りることは限りなく同義なのです。

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