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大丈夫か韓国(1) 日韓「同盟」はありえない

と書くと昨今の韓国のヒステリーに脊髄反射したと思われそうなのだが、実は半年前から考えていたネタであったりする。最近の韓国の行動が見事に予想の斜め上を逝ったので、大半書き直す羽目になったが。

今回の騒動で面白いのは、韓国人の反応というよりもそれに対する日本人の反応であるように思う。単に筆者の友人が偏っているだけなのかもしれないが、それほど嫌韓で盛り上がっていない。どちらかというと、呆れるか、戸惑っているか。「何考えてるか理解できん」ので、怒るところまで感情が届いていないようにも見える。

今韓国は間違いなく戦後最大の国難の時期に差し掛かっている。北朝鮮はどうなるか分からない、中国は着実に力をつけている、米軍はトランスフォーメーションに邁進する、ロシアはプーチンの強力な指導力で安定しつつあるし、日本では政治家の世代交代もあって明らかに外交戦略が変化しつつある。ついでに景気もよろしくない。個人破産はやたら多いし。韓国にとって有利なことは何一つない。そんなときに遷都の話で揉めてみたり、親日なんたら法とかいう内輪もめに興じて見たり、挙句地方行政府の実効力ゼロの条例に国を挙げて盛り上がってみたり。「他にやることあるだろ?」という思いが、上で挙げた呆れと戸惑いにつながっているように思う。

ただ、「良く分からん」で放置するには、残念ながら韓国は日本に近すぎる。というわけで、大体3回シリーズくらいで、韓国の状況を色々と考えて見たい。第1回は政治っぽい話を。第2回は経済ネタ、第3回は北朝鮮関係を考えているのだが、まるで違う内容になっても怒らないで頂きたい。

さて、政治っぽい話といっても、筆者は歴史学も政治学も完全な素人なので、必然的に抽象論になる。ただ、それでも「なぜ韓国は、(歴史的に見ても)国難の時期に内輪もめに興じたり、筋を外した行動を取ったりするのか?」「日韓の『戦略的パートナーシップ』とは何か?」という疑問に対して、何がしかの思考の材料は提供できるかなと思う。


韓国、その不幸すぎる立地条件

まず、本論に入る前に、韓国の置かれた状況を整理しておきたい(常識的な話なのだが、後の議論で使うので)。

言わずもがなの話だが、韓国というのは不幸な国である。隣に中国という破格の巨大国家があるせいで、紀元前の昔から攻め込まれては滅ぼされ、服属して朝貢してという歴史を繰り返している。ただ、それだけであれば不幸な国というのは他にもたくさんあった。中国と国境を接している国は韓国だけではない。南蛮だの西戎だのと呼ばれて度々中国の侵攻を受けた国はたくさんある(ベトナムとか)。韓国にはこれといった天然資源があるわけではなく、気候的にも恵まれているとは言いがたい(寒いし)。そのままであれば、中国の辺境にある衛星国家として、それなりに穏やかな歴史を紡ぐことが出来たはずだ。

ただ、それらの国々に比べてもなお韓国が不幸なのは、5世紀以降東の島国が発展を遂げてしまったことにある。2つの大国に挟まれて西からは元に蹂躙され、東からは豊臣秀吉に攻め込まれ。しかもその両者が朝鮮を主要な敵国としては認識しておらず、単に敵国への経路として荒らして行ったに過ぎないという事実は涙を誘うものがある。

さて、中国北方の辺境国家から二大国に挟まれる戦略上の要所へと華麗なるステップアップを遂げた朝鮮だが、17世紀以降は日本が鎖国して静かにしていたこともあって、金やら清やらに攻められて服属した以外はそれなりに平和な日々を過ごしていたようだ。だが、1860年にロシアがウラジオストックに軍港を開いたのが朝鮮の第2の不幸の始まりとなる。ウラジオストックは朝鮮半島のすぐ北であり、ロシアとしては当時唯一(?)の不凍港を守るためにも朝鮮半島の動向には無関心でいられない。朝鮮半島が三大国に囲まれる地政学上の要所へとクラスアップした瞬間だ。更に第2次大戦後はアジアに積極的に絡むようになったアメリカも加わり、実に四大国に囲まれるという世界的にもまれなパワーバランスのどつぼに陥ることになる。しかも、さらに不幸なことに、韓国の周りには同規模の国がひとつもない。ただ1国で四大国と対峙しなければならないのだ。ASEANやEUでつるんで外交戦略を構築できる東南アジアやヨーロッパに比べて、ハンディキャップは更に大きい。


外交を許されない国

小説などでは、こういうときは朝鮮は大国の間をうまく泳ぎまわり、あわよくばキャスティングボードを握って自国の影響力と独立を守り抜く、という流れになるのだが、残念ながら朝鮮に比べて周りの大国は余りにも大きすぎた。キャスティングボードになろうにも、朝鮮がどこに付こうが彼我のバランスに変化が出ないのだ(経済規模で見て韓国は日本の5分の1に過ぎない)。

つまり、朝鮮には外交の選択肢が初めからほとんどなかった。自主独立などは当然ありえず、それどころか「これからはロシアの従属下に入ります!」と宣言する自由すらなかったといえる。そんなことをしたら他の大国が黙っている訳もなく、大国同士が朝鮮半島で激突する恐れすらあった。というか、時の李氏朝鮮は何度かそういう失敗をして日清戦争や日露戦争勃発の一因となり、その都度国権を削られていくという失態をさらしている。

結局、朝鮮としてはただ黙って事態の推移を見守り、各大国の意を受けた者同士が内輪で主導権争いを繰り広げるという、傍目には非常に間抜けな戦略を採るより他に選択肢がなかったわけだ。

現在韓国が上で述べたような国難を前に完全にフリーズしている(呆けている?)のも、親中にシフトしてアメリカと縁を切るのも、またその逆も実行不能という八方塞がりな現状があり、それを受けてのことだと解釈することも出来るかもしれない。ただし、大国の圧力のないときでも彼らは派閥争いしまくりな歴史を紡いできたわけで、単に内輪もめが好きな民族なんだ、と結論してもそう外れでは無いのだろうが。


日韓「同盟」はありえない

前置きが長くなりすぎた。問題なのは、そういう特異な状況に置かれた韓国と、日本はどのような関係を結ぶべきなのかということだ。中国や、もしかしたらアメリカからの脅威に対抗するため、日韓は手を携えて「戦略的パートナーシップ」とやらを構築していくべきなのだろうか?結論から書くと、これは不可能だ。突拍子もなく聞こえるかもしれないが、例え日本が同盟を望んだとしても、韓国が日韓同盟を望むことはない。

同盟とは、要は国と国との契約の一種だ。ただ、一般の契約と決定的に違うのは、例え片方が契約を履行しなくても、それを処罰する裁判所も警察も存在しないということだ。だから、同盟やその他の条約は、互いの国がその契約を喜んで遵守するような状況の下でしか成立しない

では、例えば日韓が安全保障条約を締結した場合、両国はこれを喜んで守るだろうか?韓国については多分イエスだ。例えば、日韓が手を組んで中国に対抗した場合を考える(単純化のためアメリカの存在は無視)。もし中国が日本に攻め込んできた場合、韓国は必ず日本を援護する。もし日本が敗北したら、残された韓国に独立を守る力はない。韓国自身のために、彼らは日本を全力で援護するはずだ。

逆に、中国が韓国に攻め込んだときはどうだろうか?実のところ、日本はそれほど真剣に韓国を援護する理由がない。韓国が敗北しても、まだ日本には単独で中国と渡り合えるだけの国力・軍事力が残っている。もちろん、海を隔てているというメリットもある。無理に人民解放軍の陸軍とガチンコやって兵を損耗するよりも、適当にごまかして兵力を温存する、という選択肢も取り得る。

韓国は、そのこと(条約の潜在的な片務性)を当然予想できる。そして、「いざという時には日本は守ってくれないのではないか」という疑心暗鬼に陥る。「平和主義を唱える人たちへ」でも書いたが、この疑心暗鬼こそが信頼関係構築の敵なのだ。例え日本人が骨の髄まで信義の民族で、心の奥底から韓国を守ることを誓ったとしても、「日本は韓国を裏切るという選択肢を持っている」という事実は動かない。だから疑心暗鬼も消えない。日本が韓国に比べてずっと有利な状況にあるという事実それ自体が、日本政府の約束から説得力を奪うのだ(これを日本政府は条約にコミットできない、と言う。相手が信じられる約束を結ぶ能力がない状態)。

この状態で無理に同盟を結べば、むしろ日韓関係は不安定化する。日本の反応に韓国はいちいち過剰反応を迫られるからだ。いつ日本が裏切るか疑心暗鬼になっているのだからしょうがない。

もちろん、国力が段違いなら、韓国が日本に従属する形での同盟が成立しうる。この場合、韓国は日本に守ってもらう代わりにそれなりの権益を日本に譲ることになるだろう。こうすることで、日本が喜んで韓国を守る理由が生まれ、日本は同盟にコミットできる。ただ、韓国が従属する相手に日本を選ぶことはありえない。どうせ巻かれるならより長いもの。アメリカか中国を選ぶのは当然だ。

だから、日韓同盟は、現在の日-米-韓のように、日韓がそれぞれアメリカと(より従属的な)同盟を結ぶという間接的な形でしか成立しない。この組み合わせが日-中-韓に変わることはあっても、他の大国に対抗する形で日韓が独自の同盟を結ぶことはありえないのだ。

じゃぁ韓国なんてもうどうでもいいじゃん、と思いたくなるのだが、結論は最後に回して、とりあえず次回に続く。


本日のまとめ

韓国は四大国の中に囲まれて孤立するという地政学上まれに見る不幸な立地条件にある。それゆえに独自の外交戦略が存在せず、ただ状況を見守りつつ各大国の利益代弁者が内輪もめを繰り返すしかなかった。

日本は韓国と対等な同盟関係を構築するには強大すぎる。しかし、韓国を従属させるほどには強くない。そのため、日韓が単独で同盟関係を構築するのは不可能だ。

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Comments

韓国から見ると、たしかに厳しい情勢ですね。。大変だ。

Posted by: ひろ | March 20, 2005 at 08:50 AM

トランスフォーメーションなんかを考えると、米のエスタブリッシュはすでに韓国を見捨て、半島自体中国影響下で良いと考えてる気がします。

その点を踏まえると、昨今のノムヒョン政権の奇行と反日政策は当たり前といえば必然的なのかもしれません。

それに対して日本がすべきことは、内部の勢力を注視しつつ、エレガントに無視。ただそれだけでいいと思います。

わが国がこんなところで無駄な消耗するのは得策ではありません。

Posted by: 丸尾 | March 20, 2005 at 04:24 PM

昔はアメリカは台湾と韓国(朝鮮半島)をセットで考えていて、どっちかだけを見放すことは選択肢的にありえないと聞いていたのですが、今は違ってきているのでしょうかね?
軍事技術も進化してますし、韓国撤退の流れは確実でしょうか・・・

ただ、日本の選択となると見放していいかは微妙だと思います。中国の手足となってしまった韓国と付き合っていくのはコスト的に負担ですし。
一番いいのは韓国内に親日派を工作で育てて(政党に資金援助などをしながら)韓国が親中一色にならない工作を裏ですることくらいでしょうか。
韓国の内輪もめ好き体質から行くとそれが一番良い気もします。(日本にそうした能力を持つ組織がないことは別の問題ですが)

Posted by: 天元 | March 20, 2005 at 05:36 PM

>ただ、日本の選択となると見放していいかは微妙だと思います。中国の手足となってしまった韓国と付き合っていくのはコスト的に負担ですし。

どのみち韓国や中国が大好き(別の意味で)な日本を放すとも思えず、まるで反日攻勢の大勢に影響が無いのでは?
http://tengen.seesaa.net/article/2488968.html

Posted by: 三光 | March 20, 2005 at 10:18 PM

東アジアには北朝鮮や中国台湾関係などがあり,非常に困難なことですが,日韓は仲良くなったほうが日本の国益にかなうと思います。詳しくは私のブログに書きました。

Posted by: 青い炎 | March 20, 2005 at 10:25 PM

ひろさん、コメントありがとうございます。

こうして見ると、真綿で首を絞められている感じで・・・これから大変でしょうね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 21, 2005 at 08:37 PM

丸尾さん、はじめまして。コメントありがとうございます。

私もこのエントリーを書くまではアメリカは韓国を「中国影響下においてよい」と考えているのかと思っていたのですが、こうして整理して見ると少し違うかなと思い始めました。そもそも、戦略上の要所をタダでくれてやる道理がないですし。

トランスフォーメーションは単に軍事上の要請として、政治マターとは分けたほうが筋がすっきりするな、と思うわけです。(このあたりは、そのうちエントリーで取り上げようと思います)

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 21, 2005 at 08:43 PM

天元さん、はじめまして。コメントありがとうございます。

このご時世に最前線である朝鮮半島に兵を置いておくのは(先制攻撃の具に供されるだけで)いかにも不利のようですし、その意味で主力がグアムまで引く、というのは理にかなっているのだと思います。ただ、それが即韓国でのアメリカの影響力の低下につながるわけではないかな、と。日米中露どの国にとっても、朝鮮半島は程よく分裂していてくれたほうが都合が良いわけで、結局その方向に進む気がします。しかし、おっしゃるとおり親日派を育成するのは大変そうですねー。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 21, 2005 at 08:50 PM

三光さん、はじめまして。コメントありがとうございます。

おっしゃるとおり、中韓からのアプローチは今後も余り変わらないのかもしれませんね。ただ、実効力を伴わない反日「攻勢」は無視してよいのだと思います。少なくとも、戦略のレベルでは。要は、彼らに軍事的、経済的、外交的な意味での攻勢を許さない仕組みを作っておけばよいわけで(まぁ、現状それが日米同盟なわけですが)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 21, 2005 at 08:56 PM

青い炎さん、はじめまして。コメントありがとうございます。ブログも拝見しました。

仲良くしたほうがいい、という識見は当然あって然るべきだと思います。ただ、私がここで書いたのは「例え日韓両国が仲良くしたいと思ったとしても、実際に同盟関係を直接結ぶことは不可能だ」ということなのです。世の中、望ましい戦略と実行可能な戦略はえてして一致しないものだ、というのがこのエントリーの主張の一部だったりします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 21, 2005 at 09:00 PM

条約の片務性。確かにそうですね。私は国民感情からも、中国と韓国どちらが日本と同盟を結ぶ事に抵抗が少ないか(その必要に迫られたとして)と考えた時、中国ではないかと考えております。中国は自力で解放を勝ち取ったけれども韓国は他力で日本の支配から解放された。韓国の日本に対する強いコンプレックスはそんな所にも端を発しているのかな、と。

とは言え、例えば日中が同盟を結ぶことなど、米中が同盟を結んでからでないと有りえませんが。英BBCの調査で中国は日本の安保理入りに賛成10%反対51%らしいです。素直でよろしいですね。(この点からも日本の安保理入りは有り得ないと思いますがこれは本文からそれますね。)

某ヨン氏でさえ「竹島は韓国領土だけど仲良くしようね」と言ってるらしいので、まぁ先は長そうですね。遠い将来に同盟国にもしなるとしても。

Posted by: 名無之直人 | March 22, 2005 at 04:49 PM

名無之直人さん、コメントありがとうございます。

この辺り、国民感情というのはどう扱うべきかというのは難しいところだと思うのですが、私は先週極東ブログさんが書かれた「戦略的な必要性が友好関係を作る」というのが当たっているのではないかなぁと。某ペ様が何を言おうと、その手の感情というのは国家間外交にあっさりと飲み込まれてしまう類のものであるように思います。単純に政府が国民感情を無視する、という意味ではなく、両者は連動するものだ、という意味において、です。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 23, 2005 at 11:50 PM

はじめまして。
思わず合点!と某番組のように唸ってしまいました。
とても為になったので、リンクさせていただきました!
大丈夫か韓国(2) も期待していますっ

Posted by: のぶー | March 24, 2005 at 10:14 PM

 |      キャスティング ヴォート
 | ・ω・)っ[Casting vote]

Posted by: 文車堂 | March 25, 2005 at 02:41 AM

のぶーさん、はじめまして。どうもありがとうございます。誰かへぇボタンのcgi?だけじゃなくてガッテンボタンも作ってくれませんかね(←結構好きなんです、あれ)。

ちょうどブログを始められたところなのですね。今後ともよろしくお願いします。

しかし、第2回なのですが、資料を集める暇がなく、来週に延期になりそうです・・・

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 26, 2005 at 11:47 PM

orz

文車堂さん、ご指摘ありがとうございます・・・今まで素でCasting boardだと思ってましたよ(良く考えるとまるで意味が通らないわけですが)・・・おかげでこれからの人生、大恥を書くリスクが一つ減りました。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 26, 2005 at 11:52 PM

金日成もキャスティングボードを握ったのは朝鮮戦争で南半分に迷惑きわまる侵攻作戦を行うことによってですよね。つまり兄弟喧嘩によって周囲の注目をあつめるしかない、だんご2兄弟です。ところで、最近は北をロシアが中国に押し付けたので、中国が北の面倒を(みたくないけど)見るという関係です。そうすると韓国は緩衝国家にしかならんのですが、中国からは生活保護国家の北朝鮮の面倒を「養育義務あり」とされてしまい、一挙に20年前の経済水準に落ち込む可能性もありますね。とはいえ、日本には「養育義務」はないということを言っておかないといけません。いったいどこの世界で権益の見返りなしに金を出す国があるのでしょう。

Posted by: そういえば | March 28, 2005 at 01:18 AM

そういえばさん、はじめまして。コメントありがとうございます。

考えれば考えるほど大変だなぁと思うのですが、良く考えると韓国は必ずしも北朝鮮問題に関して日本に権益を渡す必要はないかもしれませんね。

交渉を有利に運ぶにはreward(権益)を差し出すか、脅しをかけるかの2種類があります。通常は韓国が脅しをかけることは難しいわけですが、北朝鮮の件に限っては「北朝鮮の貧民を船に詰めて日本に大挙亡命させるぞ」という脅しは結構有効かなぁと。総連という受け皿もありますし。この辺り、第3回で書く予定です(ちょっと暇が取れずに遅れ気味なのですが・・・)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 28, 2005 at 06:52 AM

初コメントになるんでしょうか、EsLoadと申します。以前から読ませていただいておりました。
なかなか興味深い内容で、何度も読み返してしまいました。

確かに韓国は日・米・中・露に囲まれるという涙を誘う状態にありますね。北朝鮮もありますし。そういった意味では、「日韓同盟はあり得ない」という馬車馬様の意見には同意いたします。

しかし韓国どうなのか。発言や行動を見ると、自分で自分の首を絞めているような気がしてなりません。
もう少し国際的なバランス感覚を持っていればいいんですが…。
あと、言いたくはないですが、原理原則を持っていない(ようにしか見えない)韓国だからこそ、呆韓を増やしているような気がします。
(反日だけは原理原則のよーですが…(ーー;)

Posted by: EsLoad | March 28, 2005 at 12:00 PM

>もし中国が日本に攻め込んできた場合、韓国は必ず日本を援護する。

かの国の歴史を考えたとき,これは考えにくいのでは。

中国とともに喜んで(むしろ率先して)日本に攻め込んでくると思われ。

Posted by: こうめい | March 29, 2005 at 11:14 AM

今現在でも、制裁云々言っているが、国連経由で北にお金を注ぎ込んでいる日本。金豚さんは、
米をお金に換えて、ミサイル開発。あーあって感じですよね。

Posted by: あ | March 29, 2005 at 06:12 PM

こんばんは。

>朝鮮の件に限っては「北朝鮮の貧民を船に詰めて日本に大挙亡命させるぞ」という脅しは結構有効かなぁと。

そういえば、福岡2区に元在日朝鮮人の候補が立つそうです。陰謀論として考えると怖いですね。

元在日韓国人 平田正源候補が先ず明らかにすべき事
http://www.wafu.ne.jp/~gori/diary3/000407.html

Posted by: m_matsuoka | March 30, 2005 at 12:39 AM

Esloadさん、コメントありがとうございます。前に一度コメントを頂いたことがあったような?気のせいかもしれませんが。

何度も読み返してくださったとのこと、ブロガー冥利に尽きます。ありがとうございます。

本文に書きかけて没にしたのですが、周りに同サイズの国が無いために「対等の関係」を作った経験がないことも、昨今の稚拙な対応の一因かもしれないなと思います。しかし、呆韓はいいですね。もしかして、流行っていたりするんでしょうか(笑)。

今後ともよろしくお願いします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 30, 2005 at 07:50 AM

こうめいさん、コメントありがとうございます。

まぁ、私も正直韓国が中国につっかかるシチュエーションは想像しにくいのですが、あの部分はあくまでも同盟の片務性を示す一例ですので、中国のところをロシアとかアメリカとかに読み替えていただくとすっきりするかもしれません。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 30, 2005 at 07:52 AM

あ さん、コメントありがとうございます。

いやぁ、腹の立つ話ですが、上でも書いたとおり交渉のカードはアメとムチが基本なわけで。ムチを振るおうにも奴らはもう素寒貧で失うものが無いときてます(国民が餓死したところで関係ないし)。有効なムチが実質的に武力侵攻による政権打倒しかない以上、アメをくれてやって「いうこと聞かないとアメやらないぞ」と脅す選択肢は取っておきたいんじゃないでしょうか。

どっちにせよ、あーあって感じではありますが。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 30, 2005 at 07:54 AM

m_matsuokaさん、コメントありがとうございます。

平田候補がどうなるのかは分かりませんが、確か民主党にはもう総連の息のかかった議員がいるんですよね。正直、民主党が北朝鮮難民積極受け入れとか言い出しそうで怖いんですが。勘弁願いたいところです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 30, 2005 at 08:01 AM

初めてコメントを書かせていただきます。三諸と申します。
非常に論旨が明確かつ説得力のあるブログで、読んでいてうなずくことしきりだったのですが、一箇所だけ引っかかるところがありました。
>朝鮮がどこに付こうが彼我のバランスに変化が出ないのだ
逆だと思います。もしくは響きに語弊があります。確かに、朝鮮国が何処につこうが国力に差は出ないでしょう。しかし、朝鮮半島は別です。
 たとえば、中国が完全に朝鮮を領土に加えれば、日本やロシアにはいつでもにらみを利かせ、海上交易をたやすく妨害できるようになります。
 ロシアが朝鮮半島を押さえれば、安全かつ恒久的な海上交易ラインを手にすると同時に、日本海における日本の行動とににらみを利かせ、さらに対岸の天津を伺うことが可能になります。アメリカが朝鮮半島を押さえれば、他の3つに対する格好の要塞を手にすることになります。
 日本については、朝鮮半島を併合すると同時に満州を実質支配することができた点を指摘するだけで十分でしょう。
 さらに重要なことは、朝鮮半島を手に入れた国は、本国が安全になると思われることです。どのパターンであっても、先に半島を落とさない限り本国へ安心して攻撃できないことは明らかです。
 つまり、朝鮮半島が何処に属するかは、周辺の大国の行動に大きく影響するだろうし、どの国家も、その事態を警戒していたのではないかというのが、私の考えです。逆に言えば、秀吉の侵攻以来、お互いを恐怖した日本と中国がそのようなにらみ合いの関係にあったからこそ、ろくに軍備も整えず、武官を差別し、インフラを整えることなく、国民を虐げるだけだった李氏朝鮮が、500年間命脈を保つことができたのではないでしょうか。

Posted by: 三諸 | April 23, 2005 at 01:26 PM

三諸さん、はじめまして。コメントありがとうございます。

おっしゃることは良く分かります・・・というか、私も同意見です。韓国は無力ですが、朝鮮半島がどこに属するかは大きな問題です。

ただし、三諸さんご自身が間接的に指摘されている通り、朝鮮半島の帰属は彼我のバランスの変化の原因ではなく、結果なのであろうと思います。本文でもちらっと書きましたが、各大国の勢力が均衡しているときに韓国がどこかの国に服属しようとすると、それを良しとしない他の大国の介入を招きます。結局、その大国の介入を退けない限り朝鮮半島を手中に収めることは出来ません。

日韓併合にしても、日清戦争と日露戦争で朝鮮半島に対する清露の介入を日本が退け、パワーバランスが崩壊した結果であるわけで。実はちょうど書き上げた最終回で似たようなことも書いておりますので、そちらもあわせてご覧いただければと思います。

おかげさまで少し頭が整理できたような気がします。ありがとうございました。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 25, 2005 at 12:18 AM

万が一同盟を結ぶ事になったとして。
事大する国が、他国が日本に攻め込んだ時に助けるわけはないです。今までもそうやって裏切ってきました。しかも助ける側にはまわりません。攻める側につきます。
韓国軍関係者が、装備品は日本を攻撃するためと言っている点からもまずない。というか逆に日本の危機となりますね。(雑誌の記事にあったと思います)
北の核は日本攻撃用と言った政治家もいましたね。

Posted by: taka | May 09, 2005 at 09:34 AM

takaさん、コメントありがとうございます。(3)で頂いたコメントの分も合わせてこちらでコメントさせていただきます。

まぁ、事大せざるを得ない地政学的な理由があったわけですから、今後の動向もその意味ではそれなりに「読む」ことが出来るはずだと思います(ただ、根本的に合理的な判断をして無いと思える節があるのが怖いのですが)。もし周囲の状況から「韓国は日本に事大する」と判断できれば付き合い、そうでなければ他の国に事大するのを邪魔しておけばいいのではと思います。

ただ、レアメタルが出るなら食い込みたいところではありますね。歴史的経緯から言って直接は難しそうなので、アメリカまたはロシアに食い込ませて、そこ経由で。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | May 15, 2005 at 05:31 AM

>もし周囲の状況から「韓国は日本に事大する」と判断できれば付き合い、そうでなければ他の国に事大するのを邪魔しておけばいいのではと思います。

それには反対。事大する国はすぐに裏切る。日本に事大してもお荷物になるだけ。戦後の混乱の二の舞は困るし、後で言いがかりをつけられるだけ。
あちらの軍関係者の日本を攻める発言や、情報統制の面からも、韓国と組む必要は無いです。
軍事情報に関しては、韓国系米国人やその他が米軍情報を韓国へ流している事件があるので、信用はできません。
北の核を韓国に流出させないことが、まずは先決だと思います。韓国は核を持ちたがっている動きがあります。実際核につながるウラン濃縮等の実験を、IAEAに報告しないで行っていました。

Posted by: taka | May 16, 2005 at 09:44 PM

takaさん、コメントありがとうございます。
まぁ、必ず裏切ると判断できるのであれば付き合わずに適当に嫌がらせをして置けばいいのだと思います。核の件は、本文にも書きましたが最終的には韓国にとって重荷にしかならないのではないかと。まぁ、話が複雑になるので、そのあたりはアメリカの活躍を期待したいところです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | May 20, 2005 at 11:48 AM

失礼ながら貴方はボケていらっしゃるのですか?
日本の方がたいへんですよ
三大強国の狙いは日本ですよ
平和ぼけしすぎ

Posted by: あさ | January 29, 2009 at 02:16 PM

あささん、コメントありがとうございます。

まぁ、人の考え方はそれぞれですので。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 02, 2009 at 04:41 AM

非常に面白い記事で一気に読ませて頂きましたhappy02

さらに理路整然と正論を並べられているあたりブロガーとしてあやかりたい程ですcoldsweats01

Posted by: 眞鍋かとり | February 08, 2010 at 10:33 PM

 全体的には間違っていないでしょうけど、あまりに物事を単純化しすぎている気もします。
 まず、東アジア情勢で中国と共に影響力があり、単独で軍事的に優位に中国と渡り合えるアメリカを無視した(確率の低い)仮定は意味がないと思います。
 中国が韓国、日本と次々に攻めれば、覇権争いどころかアメリカの存在も危うくなるのですから、韓国(あるいは日本)への圧力を無視するはずがありません。
 さらに昔とは状況は全く違います。韓国にアメリカという後ろ盾がある以上、簡単に手は出せないでしょうし、韓国だけでも勝てはするが、無傷では済まないレベルの戦力は保持していると思います。

Posted by: ks | February 14, 2010 at 02:25 PM

やっぱり、斜め上の韓国w

自分を守るアメリカを叩きだす「戦時統制権」の返還を決めた。

ほんと、見てるとオモロイです。

日本も、人のこと言ってられないのは事実ですがOrz。

あ、かとりさん、韓国vs中国で韓国単独で勝ちはありませんよw

「韓国だけでも勝てはするが」って、無理ですよ

マジでww

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference 大丈夫か韓国(1) 日韓「同盟」はありえない:

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