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郵貯:改革の理由(1) 民営化について言える事

前回、郵政改革はよくわからない、と書いた。民営化による合理化がどの程度の影響を持つのかは、細かい経営努力がどれだけ実行されるか/できるかに依存していて、現時点では正確な予想など作りようが無い。その上、郵政には特定郵便局という政治的な問題も絡み、経済面で若干「損」が出るからといって「改革すべきではない」とは言い切れなかったりもする。ややこしいことこの上ない。

だが、旅先から戻って新聞を開いてみたら見事なまでに郵政への言及が無い。郵政改革という言葉だけは連呼されるのだが。マスコミの皆様も筆者と同じ結論にたどり着きでもしたのだろうか。こうなると逆になにか書いてみたくなる。丁度没フォルダにネタも腐らせていた事だし。そこで、郵政改革の話について、主に郵貯の話に議論を絞りながら、ごく基本的な流れを整理してみたい。最初の何回かはおそらく「今更分かりきった話をしなくてもいいよ」と思われるような内容も含む事になるのだが、そのあたりは適宜読み飛ばしていただきたい。


郵政・郵貯・簡保

まず郵政3事業のごく基本的な構図に触れておこう。郵政公社全体の2003年度の当期利益は実に2兆3018億円。トヨタの同年度当期利益が1.8兆円なので、(直接の比較には全く意味が無いが)結構儲かっている。ただし、もう少し内訳を見ると郵便貯金部門の当期利益が2兆2755億円を占め、郵便業務の当期利益は263億円に過ぎない。これら内訳の数字が推計値に過ぎない事を考えると、郵便部門は実質赤字になっている可能性もある。どちらにせよ、実質的に郵政公社は郵貯の利益で成り立っていると言って良いだろう。


民営化で郵便局が無くなる?

郵便部門が大して儲けていない以上、民営化して3事業を分割したら郵便部門は黒字を確保するために地方の慢性赤字な郵便局を廃止するかもしれない!という主張はあながち間違っているとはいえない。実際には、「ポストに投函すれば全国どこにでも手紙が届く」ということが郵便サービス最大の強みなのであって、単体の郵便局が赤字だからといってそれが即郵便局廃止という話につながるわけではない。だから上の主張はちょっと危機感を煽り過ぎなわけだが、一方で「では郵便局はひとつもつぶれないと断言できるのか?」と問われれば、「まぁつぶれる郵便局もあるかもしれませんね」としか答えようが無い。で、地元の郵便局がつぶれる可能性が1%でもあるのなら、とりあえず民営化に反対したくなるのが人情というものだ。

しかし、郵政公社が郵便局をつぶしたとしても、それでその地域から郵便局がなくなるわけではない。郵便局が無くて困るというのなら、税金で新たに郵便局を作ればいいだけのことだからだ。実際にはイチから郵便局を立て直すのはコストがかかりすぎるので、郵政公社に一定の補助金を出して郵便局を維持してもらえばよい。その分の税金は中央政府から交付してもいいだろう(本来はその地域の税金から払うのがスジなのだろうが、そうもいかない事情もある)。

と考えると、民営化のデメリットを「田舎の犠牲」の一言で説明してしまうのはいくらなんでも無理がある。過疎地の郵便局の面倒を政府が見なければならなくなるというコスト要因はあったとしても、都市部では合理化による増益やサービスの向上が期待できるだろう。ただ、このサービスの向上というのが曲者で、そのメリットの大きさを測りようが無い。待ち時間の短縮、新サービスの提供、接客態度の向上、どれも社会にとってメリットがあるが、過疎地の村役場の負担増に比べてどうか、という比較が根本的に成立しないのだ。そんなわけで、筆者は「田舎から郵便局が無くなる」という主張には反論できるが、民営化のメリットがデメリットを上回るかどうか、という問いには答えられない。この点に対してどちらかの答えを軽々に断言してしまう人も正直信用できない。


民営化の一般論

「よく分かりません」で〆るのもなんなので、民営化にあたっての一般論というか、考え方のフレームワークを紹介しておきたい。民営化できない業種にはいくつかの条件がある。まず、「代金を支払わない人にサービスを提供しない」ということが不可能な場合。例えば、消防サービスに代金を支払わない人の家が火事になったからといって、消防車を差し向けないというわけにはいかない(延焼を防ぐため)。警察や軍事サービスも同様だ。こういったものは民営化のしようが無い。

次に民営化できないのは、採算性が低すぎて民営化したらつぶれてしまう場合。郵便局のケースに一番近いわけだが、少なくとも現時点でぎりぎり黒字にはなっているわけで、採算性が低すぎるとはいえないだろう。部分的に採算性が低いケースについては既述。

また、民営化が失敗するメジャーなパターンとして、ある産業を独占している公社を民営化したことで、その企業が力を持ちすぎてしまい、結果経営努力を怠ってうまくいかないケースがある。最近だとイギリスの鉄道民営化のケースが有名だ。これは鉄道の管理を独占的に行う企業を民営化した結果、この企業が線路のメンテナンスを怠るようになり、死傷事故が多発した挙句にこのレールトラック社は2001年に経営破綻で市場から退場、という完膚なきまでの失敗例だ。イギリスでは未だに列車の遅れは日常茶飯事、毎週末1路線を丸ごと閉鎖してメンテナンスせざるを得なくなる、といった日本人には想像もできないことが平気で行われている(このあたりの議論についてはこちらを参照)。

この後者の可能性についても郵政改革には当てはまらない。宅急便を中心に、荷物や書類を届けるサービスは日本にはいくつもある。独占市場に胡坐を書いている余裕などあるはずもない。信書配達が自由化されたりすればなおさらのことだ。

こうしてみると、少なくとも郵便局を政府が面倒を見なければならない積極的な理由は存在しない。そして少なくとも一般的には、特に政府が面倒を見る必要が無いなら、民間に任せた方が効率が良い。上で書いたとおり日本の郵便局の民営化についてメリット・デメリットを計ることが困難である以上、一般論で判断するしかないかなと筆者は思う。

肝心の郵貯の話については次回以降。次回は郵貯と財投改革の関係の整理と郵貯の利益の源について、第3回で定額貯金のひどさについて書く予定。


本日のまとめ

郵政公社は郵貯の利益で成立している。郵便部門は収支トントン。

過疎地の郵便局がつぶれたら政府が面倒を見ればよいだけのこと。本質的な問題ではない。

民営化したほうが効率化されるかどうかは断言の不可能な問題。ただし、一般論としては民営化したほうが良い。

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Comments

「労働・資本生産性の向上」という視点からは、どのように解釈できるのでしょうか?(その前に労働生産性を測定できるのかどうか、という疑問があるのですが、それはおいといて。)
某サイトにて、民営化による生産性の向上はNTTで2倍以上、JRなどでも1.6倍前後あると書かれてました。

Posted by: 平手 緑 | August 18, 2005 at 04:28 PM

はじめまして。楽しく読ませて頂いております。

「民営化で郵便局が無くなる?」の項は全く同感です。ごく自然な考え方だと思えるのですが、なかなかこのような考えを見かけないので、ここで拝見してほっとしました。

さて、この郵政民営化ですが、「経済活動のルールの一本化と透明化の推進」という観点から見るとどうでしょうか。

公社であるということは、ある意味資本主義のルールから外れた「別のルール」に従う存在であり、そのような存在は経済活動のルールの透明性にマイナスの影響を与えるように思えます。
経済も政治も専門外ですが、業務ルールの一本化(標準化)や透明化(見える化)といったものは、(トヨタ式ならずとも)業務の改革・改善を進める上で不可欠なものです。
とすると、日本の経済・社会を改革・改善するつもりがあるのなら、(例え直接的にはデメリットの方が大きかったとしても)民営化を行うのは当然ではないかと思えます。

というようなことを考えているのですが、馬車馬さんの視点から見てどうでしょうか。

Posted by: 居眠り中 | August 20, 2005 at 12:30 AM

馬車馬さんにこの問題について書いていただける事を待望していたので、
このエントリーはとても嬉しく思います。私は新聞など詳しく読んでいないせいかもわかりませんが、マスコミのこの問題への切り方はやや表面的すぎてよくわからないと感じていました。特に次回の郵貯がなぜ儲かっているかというあたりに
大変興味がありますのでよろしくお願いします。

民営化できるサービスとそうでないサービスの区分けについては、
教科書的にはそういった分け方でよいのかもしれませんが、
公共サービスに関しても、民営化によって下請けの民間会社にやらせる事が
可能な場合もあると思います。
この場合はあくまで発注者は地方自治体などになるわけですが。。

Posted by: のびい | August 21, 2005 at 02:46 AM

平手さん、コメント有難うございます。

労働生産性については色々と推計が難しいものがあると思います。マクロ環境を含め、いろいろなファクターから影響を受けますし。過去の民営化の効果測定ですら色々と難しいのに、それに将来予測が加わると「文句無く正しい」結論は出ないのではないかなぁと思う次第です。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | August 21, 2005 at 01:09 PM

居眠り中さん、コメント有難うございます。

おっしゃることに私も同感です。いわゆる市場メカニズムというのは結構デリケートな代物で、その内部に市場合理性を無視したプレーヤーがいると、全体のメカニズムが崩壊してしまう事もあります(もちろん、郵便産業が自然と市場メカニズムが機能しうる産業である事が大前提です)。

少なくとも部分的には民間企業と競合しているのに、税金も払っていないというのはまずいだろ、というのは非常に一般的な感覚だと思うんですけどね・・・

Posted by: 馬車馬 | August 21, 2005 at 03:28 PM

のびいさん、コメント有難うございます。最近私事でばたばたしておりましてエントリーが遅れ気味です。本当はもう第3回をアップしているつもりだったのですが、先に第3回を書き上げたのに第2回がまだ書き終わっていない状態でして。明日明後日にはアップできると思います。

確かに、料金徴収のところだけを官営にして、実際の兵隊は民間を使う、というのは有りますよね。まぁ、価格メカニズムが市場機能の要なので、そこをお役人が抑えている限り民間とはいえない、というのが教科書的な答えになってしまいますが、実際にはその間には大きなグレーゾーンが広がっているのだと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | August 21, 2005 at 03:33 PM

いつも楽しく読ませてもらっています。

今回の話題ですが、
民営化してもしなくてもあまり変わりは無い。
と理解しました。

とするならば、あえて莫大なエネルギーを使って
までして現状のシステムを変更する必要無いじゃん。
と思いました。

Posted by: 六然 | August 22, 2005 at 07:28 AM

>名前: 馬車馬 | August 21, 2005 03:33 PM
 どなたですか?

Posted by: ジオ | August 22, 2005 at 03:28 PM

 失礼しました。

>名前: 馬車馬 | August 21, 2005 03:33 PM
>
>いつも楽しく読ませてもらっています。
>
>今回の話題ですが、
>民営化してもしなくてもあまり変わりは無い。
>と理解しました。
>
>とするならば、あえて莫大なエネルギーを使って
>までして現状のシステムを変更する必要無いじゃん。
>と思いました。

 間違えてこう読み、レスをしてしまいました。

Posted by: ジオ | August 22, 2005 at 03:30 PM

六然さん、コメント有難うございます。

ややこしいのですが、民営化してもしなくても変わりが無いのではなく、どちらに転ぶか断言しようが無い、というのが趣旨です。私自身は、一般論に基づいて民営化はメリットのほうが大きいと思っていますが、「郵貯の特殊要因を無視している」とか言った議論は不毛だろう、と。えらい細かい情報を弄り回さなければならない上、水掛け論になる可能性が非常に高いですから。

民営化の是非については後で改めて書きたいと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | August 24, 2005 at 01:19 PM

ジオさん、どうぞお気になさらず。
必要であれば消去しますのでおっしゃってください。

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference 郵貯:改革の理由(1) 民営化について言える事:

» おすすめの郵政エントリ [アジャジャジャジーラ K・I・N・O・K・O]
それにしても「適当なブログです」と宣言して適当にエントリ垂れ流すスタイルって楽しいな(笑) この調子だと一日何個もアップしてしまいそうだ。 今までは、馬鹿みたいに聞こえるかも知れないけど、1エントリに数時間はかけていた。10時間超えたのもいくつかあるんじゃ..... [Read More]

Tracked on August 18, 2005 at 09:03 PM

» 郵政民営化について [ひろのきまぐれ日記]
 あんまり時事ネタには絡まないほうなんですが、考えていることを  再度書いておきます。  先日、中国がいわゆる切り上げを行いましたが、かの国の当局はそれを  可能にするために周到な準備を続けてきました。  中国株をされている方ならご存知だと思いますが、切り上げによって、  株式市場が混乱することもなく、平穏無事に乗り切れたことが、その準備の  正しさを結果的に示していると思います。  ひるがえって我が日本を振りかえってみると、この国債の残高をみれば、  その解決策はインフ... [Read More]

Tracked on August 18, 2005 at 09:33 PM

» 論点ってこういうことだったのか?会議 [せまい日本、そんなに急いで話がピーマン]
郵政事業について学んでゐる。名前はまだない。郵政事業というのは、細かくは4つ(郵便、郵貯、簡保、窓口ネットワーク)に、大きくは2つに分れるようだ。  ?郵便と窓口ネットワーク、  ?郵貯と簡保といった具合。そして、この2つについて、自民党と民主党の論点について考え中。 ?郵便と窓... [Read More]

Tracked on August 19, 2005 at 07:36 PM

» 【05衆院選】「郵便物は増えている」けど… [karao Diary]
郵政民営化の根拠のひとつとなっている「eメールの普及で郵便事業は先細り」に対して、ギモンの声があがっています。 具体的には、東谷暁氏などが「アメリカでは近年においても取扱郵便物数が増えている」実態を指摘したことがよく取り上げられています。 しかし、小切手文化によって郵便利用頻度が多くなりがちなアメリカで取扱郵便物数が増えているから、日本でも今後取扱郵便物数が増える!なんてことは、どう考えても成立しないのではないでしょうか。 そこで今回は、日本の状況がどうなのか、Q&A形式でデータをもとに踏まえていき... [Read More]

Tracked on August 20, 2005 at 12:44 PM

» 皆さん読んだ方がいい「海外メディアが伝えた小泉・郵政解散劇の評判」 [雑談日記 (徒然なるままに、、。)]
 以下、重要な記事と判断し、また現下の緊迫化した政治情勢にかんがみ、全文引用しま [Read More]

Tracked on August 22, 2005 at 09:01 PM

» [社会][ブログ]郵政民営化について馬車馬さんとfinalventさんに聞きたいこと [ちょっとひとやすみ中の antiECOの日記]
  マーケットの馬車馬さんの郵政民営化に関するエントリーが話題になっている。 [http://workhorse.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2005/08/1_3a74.html:title] [http://workhorse.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2005/08/2_3600.html:title] 極東ブログのfinalventさんも連続して、郵政民営化について取り上げている。 [http://finalvent.cocolog-nifty.com... [Read More]

Tracked on August 23, 2005 at 06:32 PM

» [社会]生活者の観点からさらに郵政事業について勉強してみる [ちょっとひとやすみ中の antiECOの日記]
  昨日のエントリーでは、郵便為替法、郵便振替法が廃止になるけれど、海外送金についてはどうなるのだろうと心配点を呈示しました。   為替、振替については、海外、国内の2つのポイントに分けて考えなければならないようです。 (1)海外送金について 基本知識として現状を説明しておきます。   現在日本の郵便局(一部の簡易郵便局を除く多くの郵便局)からの送金方法としては、 〓相手の住所地に送る(口座は不要) 〓相手の郵便振替口座に送る 〓相手の銀行口座に送る(但し、22カ国に限る) の3種類があります。 ... [Read More]

Tracked on August 25, 2005 at 02:08 AM

» 郵政民営化をしないということ [ShinBLOG]
本当に郵便局の仕事は国家公務員でなければできないのかと。民間人ではやってはいけないのか。これができないで、どんな公務員削減ができるんでしょうか。マスコミでは「ガリレオと地動説」とか「自民党は郵政民営化に賛成の者しか選挙で公認しない」のくだりばかりが取り上げられましたが、一番肝心かつわかりやすそうな以下のくだりはなんでどこも取り上げないのでしょうね? 郵政民営化については、いろいろな議論が重ねられていますが、すごく問題をシンプルにすれば、結局のところ国にどこまで求めるかという話になると思います。このブ... [Read More]

Tracked on September 10, 2005 at 03:16 AM

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