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郵貯:改革の理由(3) 世界最大のデタラメ商品

第1回で「没フォルダにネタを腐らせている」と書いたが、それが今回のネタである。このネタ自体は数年前から書いてみたいとは思っていた。ただネタの性質が極めてテクニカルで、直感的に分かりづらいので書くのをためらっていたのだが、いい機会なので何とか分かりやすく書いてみる事にしたい。

で、このデタラメ商品だが、郵貯の定額貯金のことだ。2005年3月末で残高143.2兆円。ちゃんと調べたわけではないが、単体の預金商品としてはほぼ間違いなく世界最大だろう。ハッキリ言うなら、こんな商品を大々的に販売している(預金というのは、銀行にとって「預金証書」を売る代わりに現金を受け取るという商売になる)というただ一点だけでも郵貯を改革すべき理由としては十分だ


ありがたい定額貯金

定額貯金というのは、一般の銀行預金とは少し違う特殊な預金だ。普通定期預金というのは満期が来るまでは引き出せない代わりに、いつでも引き出せる普通預金よりも高い金利をエンジョイできる商品だ。一方で、この定額貯金は定期預金と同等の金利をエンジョイできるにもかかわらず、預け入れてから半年が経つといつでも引き出す事ができるというありがたい商品だ。その代わり、普通の定期預金金利と比べると(東京三菱銀行で3年定期:0.07%、5年:0.10%、10年:0.15%)、この定額貯金では3年以上長く預けても金利が上がらない(3年以上で0.06%)。ちなみに、郵貯では普通の定期預金でも4年以上は金利が上がらないので(0.07%)、少なくとも郵貯で定額貯金を選ばない理由は無い。

特にこのような低金利の時代、定額貯金というのはとてもありがたい商品だ。ほんの少し金利が高いからといって10年定期を選び、その後で金利が上がってしまったら預金者は大損だ。周りの人々が高金利をエンジョイする中で、0.15%という超低金利で10年間我慢しなければならない。そのリスクを考えたら、若干金利が低いくらいどうでもいい。大体、金利が低いとは言っても0.06%はあるわけで、普通預金(いつでも引き出し可)金利の0.001%の実に60倍の利回りを享受できるのだから。


定額貯金という重荷

問題なのは、預金者にとってリスクが低いという事は、その分だけ郵貯が余計なリスクを引き受けているという事だ。もし(満期前に引き出せない)定期預金であれば、銀行は比較的簡単にリスクを抑える事ができる。10年満期の定期預金を販売したら、それと同額の10年国債を購入すればよい。国債も、定期預金も、金利は10年間固定されているので、その後金利がどう変動しようと銀行の利益は変わらない(これをリスクがヘッジされているという)。後は、定期預金の金利を国債の利回りより少し低めに設定しておけば、儲けを出す事ができるわけだ。

これが普通預金になると、リスクはヘッジできなくなる。普通預金は変動金利なので、金利が上がると預金者への支払い金利は増える。一方で国債からの利息は変わらないので、いわゆる「逆ザヤ」が発生して銀行は赤字になる。逆に、金利が下がれば得をする。金利が上がるか下がるかは五分五分とすれば、リスクはヘッジされていないが銀行は平均的に見て損も得もしない。

ところが、定額貯金ではこうはいかない。定額預金は一応固定金利なので、基本的には預金を受け入れて同時に国債を買えば金利リスクは消滅するはずだ。もし金利が下がった場合には、定額貯金と定期預金には変わりが無い。ところが、金利が上がった場合には話が変わってくる。金利が上昇すると預金者は定額預金を解約し、より高い金利で改めて預け入れてしまうからだ。その結果普通預金と同様に逆ザヤが発生し、銀行は赤字になる。まとめると以下のようになる。銀行にとって、定額預金が他の預金と比べて明らかに不利なのがお分かり頂けると思う。

Postal-Deposit

更にまずいのは、この預け替えが起こると「預金を受け入れたら同時に国債を買う」という、上で書いたリスクヘッジの前提が崩れてしまう事だ。もし預金を受け入れて3年で預け替えが起こった場合、またそこから10年満期がスタートになる。その結果、買った国債が満期を迎えても、あと3年間また何かに投資して金利を稼がなければならない。ここでまた新たなリスクが発生する。その時に低金利になっていれば、更に赤字が拡大するし、逆に高金利になっていれば、再度預け替えが発生して預金金利が上がるため、やっぱり黒字にはならない。どこまでいっても勝ち目の無い勝負なのだ

こういった事情もあって、横並び大好きで郵貯に強いライバル意識を持っていた都銀でも、定額貯金を採用した銀行はひとつもない。


定額貯金というデリバティブ商品

上で「勝ち目の無い勝負」と書いたが、実は定額貯金それ自体が必ず損を出す商品だというわけではない。預金を預かった後に儲けが出せないなら、その分だけあらかじめ金利を下げておけばいい。本来定額貯金は預金者にとって得なのだから、若干低い金利でも満足するはずだ。

じゃぁ、どのくらい金利を下げればよいか?これが非常に難しい。預金者は預けてから半年が経ったら、いつでも預金を引き出せるという権利を持っている。この権利の価値が、普通の定期預金と定額貯金の価値の差であり、金利の差になる。ではこの「権利の価値」はいくらなのかというと、これは「アメリカンプットオプション」という、それなりに複雑なデリバティブ商品の値段と同じになる。

筆者の手元にはこの手のデリバティブ商品の値段を計算するソフトが無いので、残念ながら「定額貯金は定期預金よりも何%金利が低くなければならない」と断言する事は筆者にはできない(金利デリバティブはもともと株デリバティブよりも計算が複雑で、しかもアメリカンオプションとあっては、筆者には手が出せない)。ただ、似たような問題を研究した論文が手元にあるので、それを紹介して定額貯金の「権利の価値」を類推してみよう。

これは岩田一政・服部哲也(東大・当時)両氏による住宅ローンの研究なのだが、両氏は住宅金融公庫の融資では「満期前に元本を返済しても良い」という期限前償還条項がある点に注目した。この条項があると、債務者は金利が下がったらさっさと住宅金融公庫に返済してしまい、改めてどこかでより低い金利で住宅ローンを組みなおした方が有利になる(金利が高ければ、そのまま支払い続ければよい)。これは定額貯金とは借りる側、貸す側の違いはあるものの、全く同じ権利をローンの債務者が持っているという点を確認して頂きたい。

で、岩田・服部両氏はこのオプション(アメリカンコールオプション)の価値は金利に換算して0.1~1.0%ポイントになると計算している。オプションの形態が良く似ている郵貯についても同様だと考えるならば(注)、定額貯金の金利は定期預金のそれよりも0.1~1.0%ポイント程度低くなければならない(おそらく、このレンジの中でも比較的大きい数字になるように思う)。じゃあ実際はというと、都銀の10年満期の定期預金の金利が現在0.15%なのでわずか0.09%ポイント、定額預金を実質3年満期と捉えるなら、この「権利(=オプション)」はタダで預金者に配られているという事になる。0.00125%を争う細かく厳しい金利計算の世界でこの大判振る舞い。親方日の丸万歳としか言いようが無い。

大盤振る舞いをした分は当然郵貯の赤字になるのだが、郵貯はこのような目に見えない権利(オプション)には価値が無いものとして帳簿をつけている。つまり、この赤字は認識されない。結局、上で書いたように、実際に預け替えが起こったりして逆ザヤが生まれた時に、この隠れ赤字がどかっと帳簿に計上される。その時ですら、郵貯の大半の人間はその赤字が定額貯金に由来する事に気づいてすらいない(多分)。金融機関において、このようにリスクに対して無自覚な経営というのは致命的な問題だ。それでも何とかなってきたのは、預託金の法外な高金利という資金の補給を受け続けてきたからだ。

結局のところ、郵貯というのは資金の入口(定額貯金)と出口(預託金)の両方で親方日の丸な商売をしてきて、結果的にそれでバランスが取れていたという側面があるわけだ。ただ出口サイドは既に改革されてしまった以上、このバランスは既に崩れている。前回も書いたように、2008年までに出口サイドの親方日の丸は消滅するのだから、それまで入口の親方日の丸もどうにかしなければいけないのだ。じゃぁどうする、という話は次回(多分最終回)。


本日のまとめ

定額貯金は金利が上がってくると預け替えが発生し、逆ザヤが発生して赤字になりやすい。一方、金利が下がった場合は預け替えは起こらないため、損も得もしない。その点で定額貯金は普通預金よりも定期預金よりも赤字になりやすい、郵貯に不利な商品だ。

本来は、その不利を埋めるべく定額貯金の金利は十分に低くなければならないのだが、そうはなっていない(この点は説明が足りないので次回改めて)。

その結果定額貯金は潜在的に郵貯の赤字体質を形作っている。更に、「預け換えをする権利」の価値は帳簿に載せにくい類のものであるため(オフバランスである、という)、その赤字体質に郵貯自身が気づきにくいという問題もある。


:言うまでも無く、この岩田服部両氏の分析をそのまま郵貯に当てはめるというのはかなり大雑把なやり方なので、この問題を真面目に考えてらっしゃる方はご自分でオプションバリューを再計算される事を勧める(それ用の計算ソフトがあればそれほど難しくは無い)。ただし、筆者自身はこの数字は比較的コンサーバティブではないかと想像している。両氏の分析も満期期間10年で行われている上、何より現在の定額預金は既にゼロ金利になっていた2000年ごろに預け入れられたものが殆どなので、預け入れ金利がかなり低い。つまり、少し金利が上がっただけで「オプションを行使した方が得な状況(in the money)」が訪れる。このような場合、オプションの価値は相当に高くなる(ただし良く考えると、このオプションの価値を考慮に入れても、ゼロ金利以下になっては理屈に合わない気がする。これについてはちょっと自信が無いので、どなたか詳しい方ご教授いただけませんか)。

資料:岩田一政・服部哲也(1999) “期限前償還とコール・オプション・プレミアム”, 住宅土地経済 No.32

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Comments

 定額貯金が不公正な商品だ、という話は昔聞いたことがあります。20年かそれ以上前になると思いますが・・。
 その頃も「郵政事業は民営化すべきだ」という話を聞いて、(内容はほとんど忘れましたが)納得と思ったものです。電電公社が民営化されて20年、専売公社も国鉄もとっくの昔に民営化されたのに、郵政民営化は遅すぎじゃないかというのが今の気持ちです。

 さて、今回のお話は、ちょっと難しいですね。実感としての「納得」を難しくしているのは、「定期預金も解約できる」ということでしょうか。3年定期を2年半で解約すると、利息は2年定期と残りの期間は普通預金分(・・だったかな?)というような形で多少のペナルティはつきますが、解約自体は断られることはないように思います。
 都銀などの場合、期間を最長3年に留めるなどによってリスクを管理可能な範囲に留めている、ということなのでしょうか。
 
 そのあたりの「納得」は横に置くと、定額貯金と言う商品は、設計段階でリスクが大きすぎる商品ということでしょうか。確かに、設計段階からリスクが大きすぎるのであれば、リスク管理のやりようもないでしょう。都銀が定額貯金を売り出さない、売り出せないと言われた理由がようやくわかったような気がします。

 さて、ちょっと話が飛んでしまいますが、詳細な説明で疑問が解けるのは嬉しいのですが、あまり細部にこだわると、「木を見て森を見ない」にならないか心配になってきます。余計なことかもしれませんが、わかっていながらついつい細部にこだわってしまうと言うのが(私を含めて)日本人の悪い癖であるように思えます(苦笑)。
 郵政民営化は「最大の課題」扱いされていますが、本当に重要なのは日本全体の改革であり、そのための行財政改革であり、その中の重要課題、といったあたりが位置付けの筈です。

 少なくとも5回目まではあるとのことですが、できれば、改革全体の中の位置というようなものがわかるような話を入れて頂ければ、嬉しく思います。

Posted by: 居眠り中 | September 01, 2005 at 10:55 PM

 リスクヘッジ手段として想定されているのは10年長期国債ですが、仮に15年変動利付国債(変国)をヘッジ手段にすれば逆ザヤは発生しない気がしますが、いかがでしょう。

 確か変国の利率と長期金利とのスプレッドは0.8%程度だったような。であれば、現在の長期金利が1.3%とすると0.5%の金利収入は毎年得られるわけで、その程度あれば利鞘を郵貯サイドは稼げそうです。また、変国はその商品性ゆえ、金利変動による価格変動が非常に小さかったような気がします(うろ覚えですが)。

 ただ、変国は十分な発行残高がないのかもしれませんね。

 素人考えでしたらすみません。誤りをぜひご指摘ください。

Posted by: 蜻蛉 | September 02, 2005 at 11:42 PM

大変納得しました。

素人な考えで申し訳ないのですが、
問題のある定額貯金なら民営化議論と関係なく郵政公社が廃止すればよいと
思うのですが、公社のままではそれは無理なのでしょうか。
現状黒字だから問題になっていないという
ことでしょうかね。

Posted by: のびい | September 04, 2005 at 05:56 PM

はじめまして。うろ覚えですが。
郵貯資金の運用部への預託金利+0.2%については、事務手数料として上乗せされているもので、大蔵省と郵政省でお互いに赤字が出ないように設計した金額になっているはずで、当然黒字なわけです。
で、郵貯の預託が7年で国債が10年だから(順イールドとして)おかしいとのことですが、これは今だからそういえる話で、以前はイールドカーブの概念が無かったので、設計に組み込まれていません。長期でも短期でも国債の金利は同じと考えていたからです。また以前は今ほど低金利ではないですから、0.2%が大きな金利差ではなかったのでしょう。
このあたりの出口の問題は仰るとおり、暗黙の政府保証の有無以外は、財投改革で解決済みの問題です。
ただし、収益性の悪くなった財投機関が、収益の悪化のみを理由に廃止に追い込まれることがあるのかというと、どうでしょう、暗黙の政府保証はある程度存在するような気がします。

Posted by: しそ | September 04, 2005 at 09:08 PM

居眠り中さん、コメント有難うございます。

やっぱり分かりづらいですね・・・最初に専門用語ばりばりの要旨を(脳内で)作ってしまったのが失敗の素だったかもしれません。

実のところ、定期預金でも解約可能、というのは大きな問題ではありません。その時に、解約して預けなおしても利益が出ない程度の十分なペナルティがあれば、それで十分なのです(更にややこしい話ですが、定期預金というのは本質的には満期の決まった債券そのものなのです。債券は満期まで持てば額面100円で償還されますが、中途で売却すればその時々の金利状況で得になったり損をしたりします)。

どちらにせよ、定額貯金というのは預金商品としては例外的にリスクが高く(銀行サイドにとって)、また残高があまりにも巨大すぎてリスクコントロールが不可能であるという点がデタラメなわけです。更に、デタラメなリスクを埋め合わせる手数料(に相当する金利差)を得ていない、と。

大枠の話は次回少しする予定ですが、大枠の話になればなるほどいいかげんになってしまうのが難しいところです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 06, 2005 at 03:31 PM

変動金利の債券を資産とした場合、固定金利の負債を持つとまたリスクが生じます(普通酔う金で資金を集めた場合、リスクが消滅します)。
上の表でいくと、定期預金が得・損、普通預金がなし・なし、定額はなし・損になります。

どうあがいても定額預金という商品は不利なんですよね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 06, 2005 at 03:34 PM

のびいさん、コメント有難うございます。

民営化など完全に無視して、定額貯金を廃止させるというのも、この問題に限って言えば正しいやり方だと思います(廃止させるのであれば、民営化すべきでは有りません)。逆に、民営化して自主的になんとかさせるのもまた正しいでしょう。

それ以外の要素(第1,2回で書いたような)も重ね合わせると私は民営化のほうが良いと思いますが、どちらが良いかというのは最終的には民間活動をどこまで信用するかという問題になってしまうのだと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 06, 2005 at 03:46 PM

しそさん、コメント有難うございます。

ご指摘の点は全くごもっともで、私の批判はある意味後だしじゃんけん的です。

ただ、85年の国債自由化以降はイールドカーブの概念も次第に根付いてきたと思いますし(もし私の勘違いであればご指摘いただきたく)、90年代後半であればオプションバリューの考え方も一般的になってきました。これはまずいだろう、ということが明らかになってからもずるずると昔のシステムが続いてしまうのは、やはり官営の問題点ではないかと思います。

暗黙の政府保証なのですが、TBを下さったBewaadさんのコメント欄で現役トレーダーのかたが書いておられるとおり、殆ど無い、という私の表現は間違っていそうな感じですね。(時間ができれば訂正しようと思います)ただ、どの程度保証が「ある」のかは結構微妙で難しい問題ではないかと思っています。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 06, 2005 at 03:53 PM

TB先を見たらすっかり説明済みでしたね。すいません。
暗黙の政府保証は現状では日本的な曖昧さがあるなかで市場は「それなりにある」と判断しているのでしょう。政権交代があれば影響は大きく受けるでしょうね。

Posted by: しそ | September 07, 2005 at 01:58 AM

大分前の日記にコメントを付けて申し訳無いのですが、定期預金と定額貯金の金利差が、郵政公社が設定した解約権オプションの価格です。

このオプション価格を計算するには、異なる満期日を持つ債券を組み合わせて、同様のリスク構造を持つポートフォリオ(複製ポートフォリオ)を組むことでできます。大事なことは、この定額貯金と“全く”同じリスク構造を持つ複製ポートフォリオが構成できることです。(もちろん、それに必要な債券が、市場で流通していることが必要ですが)

で、実際に大雑把な計算をしてみると、リスクプレミアムは大体同じになると思います。

尚、「据置型定期預金」という金融商品が民間の金融機関でも販売されているようです。

P.S もし、不適切な価格設定がなされているなら、その裁定機会を利用して儲ければいい話だと思うのですが。

Posted by: 通りすがり | November 27, 2006 at 06:08 PM

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