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民主党の最適戦略(下)

前回の冒頭で、筆者は2種類の疑問を提示した。ひとつは「対立軸を設定することが民主党のためになるのか?」ということであり、もうひとつは「対立軸を設定することが国民のためになるのか?」ということだった。前回は一つ目の疑問に議論を絞り、「二大政党制の下では対立軸の設定は自殺行為であり、むしろ大多数の国民が何を望んでいるかにのみ注目すべきだ」ということを書いた(逆に言うと、二大政党制というシステムは、余計な政党間の駆け引きを無視して「国民の為に政策を練る」ことを奨励する仕組みだということになる)。

今回は、後者の「対立軸がなくなってしまっては、国民は政策の選択肢を失ってしまう。国民に選択の機会を与えるためには、対立軸を明確に示す必要がある(だから、前回説明したようなマーケティング的な考え方は不純)」という意見を考えて見ることにしたい(「玄倉川の岸辺」氏のTBからアイデアを得て文末に大幅に追記。)。


「対立軸の明確化」が選択肢を奪う

そのために、前回説明したダウンズのモデルの裏側をまず説明して見たい。前回は「国民は自分のポリシーに近い政党を選ぶ」と単純に解説したが、その裏には「自分のポリシーから離れた政党を選ぶのはそれなりに苦痛(不快)である」という前提がある。図で説明すると、以下のようになる(後での説明のため、両党が「対立軸を明確にしている」ケースで考えよう)。

Downs2-1

ちょっとグラフが入り組んできたが、4本の斜めの線は「自民・民主を支持するために国民が強いられる妥協の大きさ(=それに伴う苦痛)」を意味している。この図のように自民が大きく右傾化し、民主が左傾化すると、中道ど真ん中の人にとってはどちらの政党のポリシーも違和感が大きくなる。それでも、自民党の政策の方が相対的に違和感が小さいから、自民党を支持することになるわけだ(自民党を支持する時に強いられる妥協の大きさ(緑色の矢印)が、民主党を支持する時の妥協の大きさ(赤い矢印)に比べて小さいということ)。

で、国民はそれぞれ自分にとって強いられる妥協が小さい政党を選んだ方が苦痛が少ないので、政党支持は斜め線の交点を境に二分されることになる。ここまでは前回の議論と全く同じだ。

しかし、この考え方にはひとつ問題がある。なぜなら、我々は別に自民党と民主党のどちらかを支持することを強制されているわけではないからだ。自分のポリシーと各政党の主張が余りにもかけ離れている場合、我々は「支持政党なし」(選挙なら棄権・白票)と宣言する権利を持っている。そこで、上の図に「我慢の限界」という新しい概念を追加して見よう。この時、国民は「自分のポリシーと政党の主張がそれほど離れていなければ支持するが、あまりにもかけ離れている場合にはどちらの政党も支持しない」という行動をとる。すると、図は以下のように変化する(水平の点線が我慢の限界を意味する。国民はこれよりも大きな妥協はしたがらない)。

Downs2-2

「無党派層」の出現だ。この図の灰色(薄紫?)の部分にいる国民にとっては、自民・民主両党の政策はあまりにも自分のポリシーからかけ離れている(我慢の限界を超えている)ので、どちらの政党も支持できない。彼らにとって、選択肢は実質的には存在しないのだ。この図が示していることは結構皮肉な状況だ。つまり、「国民に選択肢を提供する」ための対立軸の明確化が、逆に国民から選択肢を奪っているのだ。そして、その結果が無党派層の出現であり、投票率の低下であるわけだ(無党派層を右翼・左翼の文脈で捉えることに違和感がある読者の方は、横軸を「地方重視→都市重視」とか、「労働組合重視→企業重視」とかに適宜置き換えて頂きたい)。


「国民に選択肢を与える」ことの意味

ただし、「対立軸が消滅したら、選択肢がなくなってしまう」という主張は全く間違っているわけでもない。前回の最初の図のように、自民・民主がかなり中道で接近する場合、以下の図のように極右・極左気味な人たちは選択肢を失ってしまう(それでも、上の図では3割の人が選択肢を失っているのに対し、下の図では2割以下なので、悪影響は限定的なのだが)。

Downs2-3

その意味では、自民と民主がもう少しだけそれぞれ右傾化・左傾化することで、より多くの国民に選択肢を与えることが出来ることは確かだ。しかし、結論を急ぐ前に、この時中道グループにいる国民にはどんな選択肢が与えられているのかを考えて見て欲しい。

自民と民主の政策が接近しているということは、中道近辺にいる国民にとっては、どちらの政策も許容範囲内だということになる。つまり、実質的に彼らは許容可能な2つの選択肢から、自分たちにとってより望ましい政策を選ぶという贅沢が許されていることになる。それを表したのが次の図だ。

Downs2-4

真ん中左のピンク色は「自民と民主両方の政策が許容範囲内だが、どちらかというと民主党の政策の方が好ましいと考える人たち」で、真ん中右の青色は「どちらでもいいが、どちらかというと自民党のそれの方が好ましいと考える人たち」を表している。この図では、6割弱の国民が「2つの選択肢から選ぶ」という贅沢を享受していることになる。

もちろん、この贅沢は「2割弱の極右・極左の人たちから選択肢を奪う」ことによって成立している。そのどちらが望ましいかは個々人の価値観によって違うだろうから、ここでは立ち入らない。


「国民の望む政策」

むしろ重要なのは、対立軸を明確にしてしまうと選挙後に禍根を残す可能性が高い、という点だ。例えば、「対立軸の明確な」最初の図で考えると、当然自民党が選挙で勝つわけだが、それでも全体の6割(黄色+薄紫)はこの自民党の政策を許容できないと思っているのだ。一方で、すぐ上の図のように両政党の主張が接近している場合、どちらの政党が勝利しても、新与党の政策が許容できないと感じる人は全体の3割に満たない(注)。

選挙に際して「国民に選択肢を与える」ことは確かに重要ではあるが、それが全てではない。より幅広く国民の利益を考えるならば、対立軸の明確化は決して金科玉条に値するポリシーでは無いのだ。「中道ど真ん中狙い」は決して民主党だけのための戦略ではない。国民全体にとっても、それは望ましいのだ。


民主党の心地よきタコ壺

こう考えてくると、前回の冒頭で説明した前原代表に対する批判の数々は、切り捨てられてしまった左翼の人たち(2つ目のグラフの左側)が「もっと構ってくれなきゃヤダヤダ!」と駄々をこねているようなものではないだろうか。しかも、中選挙区時代の時代遅れな理論で武装して。この駄々っ子を切り捨てて「大多数の国民の望むもの」に目を向けることが出来るかどうか。それが民主党が二大政党の片割れとして脱皮できるかどうかの試金石になるのだと思う。

だが、おそらくこの作業は言うほどに易くはない。もう一度、前回1つめの図に戻りたい。「郵政選挙」で、民主党はまさにこのような「対立軸の明確化(郵政改革反対)」を打ち出して大敗したわけだが(もちろん、理由は他にもたくさんあるが、このモデルではそうなるということで)、それでも民主党を支持した筋金入りの人たちは存在する。下の図の黄色+緑色の部分だ(ここまでは前回と同じ)。

Downs2-5

もしここで前原代表が図のように「中道左派を狙った路線」を打ち出しても、現在の民主支持層でそれを歓迎するのはごく一部に過ぎない(緑色の部分。すなわち、現在の民主党支持層でもっとも右寄りの人たち)。この図で言うなら、前原路線は現在の民主支持層のわずか1割からしか支持を得られない。もちろん、そうすることで前回自民党に食われてしまった中道左派(2割)の票を獲得できるわけだが、これは次の選挙までは「取らぬ狸の皮算用」に過ぎないのがつらいところだ。

その意味では、今試されているのは前原代表の意見の正しさというよりも、9割にも及ぶ反対意見を退ける豪腕だということになる。所詮、今前原路線に反対している人は自民党には投票できないわけで、選挙になれば結局民主党に投票せざるを得ない(極左の一部は無党派層化するかもしれないが)。その意味では負けない勝負ではある。しかし、選挙という外との戦いではなく、現在の民主党支持者との戦いという内との戦いにおいて、前原代表の圧倒的不利は否めない

この前原代表を周囲がどれだけ支えることが出来るか。彼自身がどれだけ踏みとどまれるか。そこで民主党の今後10年の方向性が定まるのではないだろうか。逆に、前原代表が引き摺り下ろされて再び「左翼のタコ壺」に引きこもるようであれば、もう筆者からは民主党を擁護する気力も理由も完全に消滅する。


本日のまとめ

対立軸を明確にすることによって、むしろ国民から選択肢を奪う恐れがある。その場合、それは無党派層(どちらの政策にも付いていけない人たち)の拡大という形で表れる。投票率も低下する。

ただし、対立軸が消滅してもやはり極右・極左の人たちから選択肢を奪っていることになる。その代わり、中道にいる大多数の人たちは「どちらも許容できる」2つの選択肢を手にすることが出来る。

対立軸が明確になるほど、その政策を許容できない人は増える。その結果、どちらが選挙に勝っても、その政策の実行段階に禍根を残すことになる。

「対立軸を明確に」という時代遅れな主張は、今まさに切り捨てられようとしている(中道でない)左翼な政治家の悲鳴である可能性が高い。彼らを切り捨てられるかどうかが、今後民主党が二大政党の一翼を担えるかどうかの試金石となる。

ただし、「中道ど真ん中」を狙う路線は、民主党の現在の支持者からはほとんど賛意を得られない。この不満をどれだけ抑えられるかが勝負のしどころとなる。

:ただし、この「将来の禍根」についての議論は、「国民の大多数は中道を支持しており、極右と極左は少ないはず」という(いわゆる正規分布の)仮定に依存している。ちなみに、前回説明したダウンズの議論は分布の形には依存しない。どんなへんてこりんな分布でも同じ理屈が通用する。

追記:蛇足だが、今回の話はダウンズがベースにしたホテリング(1920年代の古い論文)のモデルを拝借したもの。その意味で、ダウンズのモデルを修正したというより、先祖帰りしたようなものだ。ちなみに、ホテリングのモデルは政党ではなく店の立地条件を考えるモデルで、ダウンズのモデルと違って所与の立地条件での最適な価格設定を考えている。

履歴:「民主党の心地よきタコ壺」を追加。(2005年12月21日21時40分)

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Comments

馬車馬さんは山口二郎という北大の政治学者のブログをご存じですか?
民主党左派の代弁者とでも言うべき人です。
この人の主張やブログのコメントを読むと「切り捨てられてしまった左翼の人たち」が望む民主党の理想が読み取れますよ。

Posted by: tanaka | December 23, 2005 at 10:14 PM

はじめまして。
hiroというものです。馬車場さんブログを偶然見つけそれ以来、ちょくちょく見させていただいてます。
次の記事が出てくるのを楽しみにしています。

Posted by: hiro | December 24, 2005 at 02:35 AM

tanakaさん、コメントありがとうございます。

『一党優位体制にならないためには、自民党の左側に存在感のある政党を作らなければならない』というのは全く同感なのですが、その後の方法論がだいぶ違うようですね。個人的な印象としては、私の図の横軸の概念はあっても、その上に国民がどう分布しているかという概念が抜けているような気がします。「どの意見が正しいか」という議論の際には必要がない概念ですが、「存在感のある政党を作る」ためには無視し得ない要素だと思うのですが・・・。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 24, 2005 at 03:30 AM

hiroさん、コメントありがとうございます。

楽しみにしているとのお言葉ありがとうございます。現状隔週更新体制をなんとか維持しているという有様ですが、どうかお見捨てなく、今後ともよろしくお願いします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 24, 2005 at 03:32 AM

わかりやすい解説ありがとうございます。
今回の正規分布ですが、人口の分布ということでは、そのようなモデルが成り立つのかなと思ってみていました。ただ、言説の強さや行動力という意味では、「U字型」になったりするのかなと思ったりもしました。

Posted by: ヤマグ | December 25, 2005 at 08:43 PM

ヤマグさん、コメントありがとうございます。

ここでは主に選挙を念頭に置いたので、支持者の数が政党の力に直結する、という前提にあのような分布を書いています。しかし、両政党の意見が(例えば)マスコミでどう扱われるか、といった問題を考えるならば、おっしゃるとおり色々な分布が考えられるのだと思います。

それから、複雑になりそうなので没にしましたが、選挙民の分布に比べ、国会議員の分布はもっとなだらかになると思います。選挙の仕組みから言って(ちゃんと考えてないので、間違ってるかもしれませんが・・・)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 27, 2005 at 12:33 AM

山口二郎さんのHPいってみました。
・・・読みにくい。いいたいことはわかるんだけど読んでて疲れる文章です。
馬車馬さんのHPからいったからかなあ?
馬車馬さんの文章がいかに読みやすいか、痛感しました。

ちなみに、このHPは本にならないんですか?
オファーがきてないとすれば、出版社の連中は見る目がないですね。

Posted by: ruu | December 27, 2005 at 01:20 AM

諸刃の剣ですが、民主党が長期的に政権政党を目指すには、消費税率上げに関する議論を主導していく方向に動いていくのが一番だと思うのですが。

左翼系議員と『増税反対!』と車の上から叫んでる内は無理そうですけど。

『改革』という言葉を使うのも止めた方がよろしそうですね。

Posted by: 名無之直人 | December 27, 2005 at 09:33 AM

ruuさん、コメントありがとうございます。

私も改めて山口さんのブログを拝見して見たのですが、文章自体は決して分かりづらくないような気がしました。ただ、どうも内容が頭に入りづらいといいますか・・・考え方が根本から違うからなんでしょうか。流し読みして趣旨をまとめようとすると頭が真っ白になるといいますか・・・

ただ、私の文章もそう誉められたものでもないと思っておりましたので、ruuさんのお言葉には恐縮するばかりです。最近は推敲にあまり時間を割かなくなっているものでなおさら・・・(推敲ってやりだすときりがないので・・・)。

本なんてとんでもないです(笑)。そんなオファーが来ようものなら全力ダッシュで逃げそうです。ただ、死ぬまでに1冊でも本をものに出来るような人生にしたいなとは思いますね。遠い遠い夢ではありますが・・・。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 29, 2005 at 01:38 AM

名無之直人さん、コメントありがとうございます。

個人的には、そういう不人気分野に殴り込みをかけるのは好感度大なのですが、最近のメルケルの例もありますし、リスクは大きそうですねー。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 29, 2005 at 01:55 AM

いつも拝見しています。
とても興味深かったので、一言。
民主党は、反対野党か政権与党のどちらを目指すのか…
当然政権クレクレなんでしょう。
であれば現与党との差異は少ないほど国民にとって望ましい。
何故なら車線変更位の差異は許容出来るが、方向転換は許容できない…と思われます。
なので、とても解りやすいモデルでした。

Posted by: えれキング | December 30, 2005 at 01:30 AM

山口二郎教授のことが話題になったので、彼を知る上で重要な過去の論文をコピー。
これを読んだとき、あんまり世の中自分の思うようにいかないので(特にイラク派遣)とうとうイッチャタナ~と感じました。
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軍優先の社会への移行・・・第11師団長によるクーデターの予告
「PUBLICITY」(パブリシティー) No.824(2004/01/08/木) より
北海道大学 山口二郎

自衛隊派兵に関連して、北海道でとんでもないことが起こっているのをご報告します。みなさんにも伝えてください。
1月6日、札幌雪祭りの雪像づくりの作業開始式で、雪像づくりを行う自衛隊第11師団(札幌市真駒内駐屯)の師団長は、雪祭り会場の大通公園周辺で、イラク派兵に反対する市民のデモ、行動が起こった場合、自衛隊が雪像づくりから撤収する可能性があると述べた。これに対して、札幌市は自衛隊の雪像づくりを円滑に進めるため、大通公園付近における市民の集会、デモ等に対して、公園の管理者として退去するよう指導するという方針を決めた。(以上の事実経過は、北海道新聞1月6日夕刊および7日朝刊による)

私はこの記事を読んで、クーデターの予告だと思いました。雪祭りを人質にとって、イラク派兵に反対する市民の活動をするなと、自衛隊の責任者が堂々と恫喝したのです。

―中略―(全文のリクエストがあれば貼ります)

最後に、自衛隊にただ乗りして、一部の業者の利権と化した雪祭りなんぞ、この機会にやめちまえ。
1月11日12時半からの、日比谷公会堂における派兵反対集会に、一人でも多くの方のご参加をお願いします。

北海道大 山口二郎
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「イラク派兵に反対する市民のデモ、行動」というのは皆さんの想像するとおりのしろものです。道民もそれに気づいているので師団長への非難は無かったです。ボランティアで雪像づくりしている自衛官がイライラしたり、気が散ったりして転落事故でも起こしたら大変とみんな考えました。(私も道民だからよくわかります)

まぁ、こういう発言をしている人が民主党にまとわりついていて、それを切れないでいる現状からして民主党のお先は・・・・。

Posted by: tanaka | December 31, 2005 at 04:50 PM

えれキングさん、あけましておめでとうございます。

とりあえず、二大政党制になりかけている以上、せめて政権クレクレでないと困るんですが・・・。

内政にせよ、外交にせよ、方針の劇的な変更はかなりのコストがかかりますから、そのこと自体が国民に嫌われるはずなんですよね。本文の図でその辺りがうまく表せていれば良いなと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 02, 2006 at 10:52 PM

tanakaさん、あけましておめでとうございます。

なかなか斬新な発想をなさる方のようで・・・。

ただ、自民にしろ、民主にしろ、へんてこなことを言う人は結構いると思うんですよね。しかも、話す内容の質と声の大きさというのは得てして反比例するものですから、政党としては「彼らの話す内容は聞き流しつつ、機嫌を損ねずに自党寄りのコメントを吐いてもらう」程度のテクニックは持っていてもらいたいものです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 02, 2006 at 10:59 PM

あけましておめでとうございます。

前原代表も党内でやばいみたいですね。
左派は当然反対でしょうけど、
これに乗じて小沢グループが動き始めているようで。
せっかく選挙で勝つ為にイケメンに換えたのに。
まあ最終的に前原氏が小沢氏の傀儡になることで
決着すれば良いでしょうがそうでなければ
また選挙負けるでしょうね。
小沢氏は女性票がとれないのが泣き所。

Posted by: のびい | January 03, 2006 at 01:40 AM

のびいさん、こめんとありがとうございます。

まぁ、今の民主支持層に前原代表が受けるわけもなく。自民党総裁選を非党員にまで広げようとしている小泉首相とは3周くらい周回遅れになっていると思います。

これで管さんが代表返り咲きとかになったら、私はいよいよ民主党をあきらめて、自民党からもうひとつ分派が出来ることを期待します。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 06, 2006 at 10:46 AM

きれいな正規分布ならいいのでしょうけれど。
「現実」には有権者を左右尺度で割り切れる
こともできないでしょうし、そもそも、そう同定
している有権者も少ないのは、政治学では
常識ではないでしょうか?
「中道」は実態として存在するなら貴方の
所論も成り立つでしょう。でも現実はもっと
あいまいです。
新古典派経済学と同じような、モデル化
しすぎを感じるんですけれど...
ま、対立軸なんては何の役にも立たないのは
認めますけど

Posted by: いち通行人 | January 06, 2006 at 02:58 PM

正規分布になるか、ならないかですけど、本文にあるように地方重視vs都市重視とか組合vs企業とか環境優先vs経済優先とか対立軸はいろいろあるわけです。これらを薄紙に書いて重ねていけば出来上がる像はだいぶ正規分布に近づくんじゃないですかね?ワイドショー的な輪切りをして正規分布じゃないからダメってことも、特に政治の場合は、ないのではないかなぁと。

Posted by: しそ | January 06, 2006 at 09:37 PM

いつも拝見いたしております。
私のような高校2年の若輩にもよく分かる説明で、読む度に何か賢くなったような気がします。

前原代表と言えば、故高坂正堯教授の弟子で、外交防衛に関する現実主義的な視点を持った数少ない政治家だったので、代表になる前から一目おいていた政治家でした。
彼は民主党の旧態依然とした中で苦戦しているようで、更には自民党支持者から対立軸を持てと批判される有様。対立軸を持つことの不条理は感じていましたが、馬車馬さんのエントリを読んでそれがはっきりと分かりました。

ただ、民主党が与党を目指すならば、政権を取れない限り真の勝利とは言えませんよね。そこで、民主党を中道に寄せて自民党と票を二分したとしても、実際には政権担当能力という面で(自民党は与党経験があり信頼できる)、民主党は敗れ去ってしまうのではないかと感じています。
そうすると、やはり何らかの対立軸(右派左派に限らず)を提示する必要がでてくるかも・・・・っていうのは取り越し苦労なんでしょうか。

Posted by: 熊助 | January 07, 2006 at 01:53 PM

いち通行人さん、コメントありがとうございます。

まず、前半部の議論については分布の形状にかかわらず成立することは注で書いたとおりです。また、しそさんにご指摘いただいたとおり、漸近的に正規分布(またはそれに近い)形状が得られる可能性も結構高いと思います。

私は政治学を勉強したことはありませんので、その常識の中身は良く分からないのですが(もう少しお教えいただければ有難いです)、そもそも「様々な政治的課題について、国民が自分のポジションを決定することができない」または「国民が自分のポジションと政党のポジションがどのくらい離れているかを測れない(概算すら出来ない)」ということでしょうか?この場合はダウンズのアプローチが根っこから崩壊します。ただ、この場合選挙という仕組みそれ自体が無意味(非効率)なものという結論になってしまいそうですが。

左右尺度、についても、左右の話は単なる例にすぎず、実際には様々な政治課題を全て反映したn次元空間で同様の議論をすべきなのだと思います。それでも、一定の条件下で同様の結論が得られることは、最適戦略(上)にTBを頂いたbewaadさんのブログのコメント欄に書きました。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 08, 2006 at 05:50 AM

しそさん、コメントありがとうございます。

しそさんのコメントのおかげでいち通行人さんへのコメントを書くのが随分楽になりました。「薄紙を重ねる」という表現はうまい表現ですね。

対立軸をどうするか、というレベルの話であれば、そもそも正規分布にこだわる必要もないわけですが、何か特定の軸で正規分布が成立してなかったからといって、一般的に正規分布に近いものが成立していないとは言えないわけですよね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 08, 2006 at 07:02 AM

馬車馬さん
先の選挙も「優勢民営化選挙」と言われますが、やっぱり有権者は自民党と民主党の政策を全体的に見て投票してるわけでしょうから、仰るとおりだと思います。
前原代表には対立軸の提示より先に党内での地位を確立するような戦功みたいのが必要と思うのです。野党なので与党と違って政策として派手なことがほぼ出来ないのが難しいところで、小泉さんは与党党首として就任以来いろいろ実施できて良いのですが。そういうのがないと結局民主党は年功序列の組織になってしまうんじゃないかなぁと。

Posted by: しそ | January 08, 2006 at 09:48 PM

熊助さん、コメントありがとうございます。まさか高校生の方にまでご覧頂いているとは思いませんでした。私が高校生のころは政治経済なんてまるで他人事でした・・・。今から思うと、あのころもう少し勉強しておけば(特に数学)いろいろと楽だったんですけど。

さて、野党は最終的に政権を取らない限り勝利とは言えない、というのはおっしゃる通りです。しかし、与党が国民多数から受け入れられるポジション(中道)を取り、しかも政権担当能力を見せ付けた(要するに、治世に成功する)場合、国民には与党を変える必要性がなくなります。ですから、この時野党はどうあがこうが絶対に政権を取れませんし、またそうあることが望ましいと言えます(国民の声を反映した政策を成功させている政党に立法行政を任せるのがいいに決まってますから)。

この時、野党は例え中道の政策を掲げていても(一番下の図の前原氏のように)、その中道支持層からほとんど支持を得られない可能性があります。そうすると、熱い支持をくれる民主党のコアな支持層(より左寄りなグループ)に擦り寄りたくなる衝動に駆られるわけですが(=心地よき蛸壺に入るということ)、これが長期的に見て自殺行為であることは説明した通りです。

ですから、例え支持を得られなくても、国民全体の利益を考えた政策を掲げ続けてこそ、与党が(ポジション取りか実行段階で)失敗したときに政権が転がり込んでくるのだと思います。「必ず政権を取るという心構えが重要」みたいな短視眼的なせりふを吐く御仁もいらっしゃるようですが、与党がポジショニングと政策実行の両方で成功している限り、野党がいくら足掻いても無駄だということを理解すべきです。

まぁ、議員にとっては長期的な政権奪取構想よりも次の選挙で生き残ることが重要なわけですから、無理からぬ事ではありますが。そう考えると、正しいはずの前原戦略が民主党議員から受け入れられるには、相当なウルトラCが要求されているのだと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 09, 2006 at 08:53 PM

いち通行人の呟きにまで丁寧にご回答恐いりました。
たとえば、
篠原一編訳「連合政治」(岩波現代叢書)などは、
bewaadさんの引用されたレイプハルト本格的な紹介
のはしりであり、たしか、西欧の事例で、政党リーダー
のイメージする自党のポジションと有権者のそれの乖離を
政策毎、国ごとに分析していたと思います
(だいぶ前に読んだので、うろ覚えですけれど)。
上記は欧米の学者の論文集です
(山口二郎氏の先生にあたる人ですね、編者は...
まあ、原文そのものは実証的です)。

マーケットの参加者の動機つけや選考順位は
いろいろでも薄紙を重ねるように(ただし、
参加者は自分の選択に十分自覚的で合理的でなければ
いけない)、市場価格は成立するのかも知れません。

しかし、その前提は成り立ち難い場合、薄紙を重ねる
ような上手な見えざる力は政治の世界に働かないよう
に思えます。
N次元の尺度の統合を想定したとき、それを担保する
合理性は有権者個々の内面に保障されないのなら、
なかなか市場のようにいかないと思うのは私の僻み根性
だけではないと思いたいのですけれど...。

一部の極端な争点(アメリカなら中絶や同性愛)は、
たとえ二大政党制であっても、政策を分極させかねません
(この種の問題ではU字分布を想像しても間違いはなさそう
に思いますけど)。

また、二大政党で中央を取り合う前提でも、
サッチャー登場直前の英国のように政策のイモビリズムに
なるのなら、むしろ、政策は似てこないことも必要だと
思います。
もちろん、同種の現象はブッシュJR二選の大統領選挙でも
同じです。

以下乱文になりますけれど、
この十数年、本当の意味で世界を変えた保守革命は
二大政党制の中央の取り合いを
「右から否定」する
ことで起こった点を重視するべきと強く感じます。
二大政党で「対立軸はあまりいらない」と見る
のは、旧社会党的な人たちへの皮肉としては面白くても、
本当にこれから起こる、あるいは起こり得るドラマを
見逃すように感じられてならないのですけれど...

Posted by: いち通行人 | January 10, 2006 at 05:35 PM

ここで挙げられた馬車馬さんの議論自体は全く正しいものと思います。
ただ、国民の大多数が支持するような政策といっても、どのような部分を
とるかによって全く変わってくるのではないかと思います。
私は前原氏の防衛政策自体には基本的に賛成です。
彼はその専門家ですからまっすぐにそれを主張しているのは好感がもてます。
ただ、実際に今の国民の考えと自民党の考えがずれている場所というのは、
違うところにあると思います。
つまり、小泉内閣の経済政策自体はそれなりに理由があって出てきたものとはいえ、もともとの日本的な風土からいうと今のような自由競争社会、勝ち負けがはっきりして結果による格差が大きくなる社会というのは好まれない面があります。アメリカがああいう社会なのはどんどん移民を入れてきた国のなりたちとも関係するでしょう。欧州は米国に比べれば日本と同様に均質社会なので、より「社会的」といいますか、平等を志向した政策が支持されやすくなります。今の日本人には将来に不安を持っている人間が大勢います。
そこの部分が民主党の本来掲げた場合に支持が得られる可能性が大きい部分ですが、前原氏は自分の専門の防衛政策の方にばかり行っています。しかも党内には反対勢力が多い。どこかで前原氏は方針転換を迫られると思います。そういう意味ではまだ「党首」を想定しての勉強はこれまであまりしてこなかった、政治家としてもまれていない、という感じがします。

Posted by: のびい | January 14, 2006 at 04:56 AM

しそさん、コメントが遅れてごめんなさい。

私も、まず前原代表は党内基盤を固めることを優先すべきだと思います。理屈ぬきで彼についてきてくれる人をある程度確保するか、far leftにいる人を謀略でもなんでも使って追い落とすとか。正直、このエントリーの最後の図を考えると、正攻法でどうにかなるとは思えません。国民に受ける政策≠党員に受ける政策ですので・・・

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 14, 2006 at 10:46 PM

いち通行人さん、コメントありがとうございます。やはり、まるで違うフィールドの方のコメントは面白いですね。ご紹介頂いた本は入手して見ようと思います。

n次元の尺度を「薄紙を重ねたように」統合するための条件は、それぞれの尺度を国民が独立に・合理的に評価する、ということだと思います。

個人的には、ここで「国民の選択は非合理的なので任せるべきではない」という方向へ議論を進めると「そもそも選挙という仕組みそれ自体が間違っている」ということになり、議論の大前提が崩れるので、あまり意味がないと思っています(もちろん、選挙制度それ自体を問い直すレベルでの議論では重要な論点だと思いますが)。

同様に、イモビリズムも「国民(の平均値)が望むもの」が変わらないから政党のポジションも変わらないのであり、それは国民の嗜好の反映である以上は是とすべきではないかと思います。

「尺度が独立に評価されているか」というと、私は必ずしもそうとは言えないと思いますので、その意味ではこの仮定は若干現実味に欠けます。ただし、それぞれの尺度の評価に強い相関があるなら、2つの尺度をひとつに統合できるはずであり、結果的に「それぞれ独立な」尺度のみを残すことは不可能ではないと思うのですが。

U字型分布についての議論はおっしゃるとおりだと思います。実のところ、この(下)で書いた「我慢の限界」という概念はダウンズの議論に対するカウンターになっています。ダウンズのモデルではU字型であろうと2政党は中道でポジションを取るのが最適になり、2極分化は起こりません。しかし、我慢の限界が低い(原理主義的)場合、むしろ分布の2つの山にそれぞれ寄り添った方が合理的になります。

この「我慢の限界」に近い概念は1920年代のホテリングのモデルで既に導入されていますが、この点はダウンズモデルの使用上留意すべき点だと思います。そして、もしn次元の評価軸でU字型分布がある程度大きいシェアを占める場合、全体の分布も正規分布から大きくゆがむことになります。

そう考えると、ダウンズ的な議論を使うには、まず各評価軸上の国民の分布と、各評価軸の重みに注意する必要があるのでしょうね。原理主義的なネタで国論が二分されている状況(または、イラクのような状況)では、(上)で書いたような議論は成立しません。

とりとめがなくなってしまって恐縮なのですが、「右から否定された」保守革命についてもう少しご説明をいただけないでしょうか。どちらにせよ、私はある一側面から世の中を見たにすぎず、それによって見落とされる別の側面が存在する、という点には全面的に同意します。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 14, 2006 at 11:32 PM

のびいさん、コメントが遅れてごめんなさい。

おっしゃることは全くごもっともで、そうでなくとも「票にならない」と言われる外交ネタをいの一番に持ってくる必要は無かったのではないかと思います(ポジショニングの問題というよりも、プレゼンの問題として)。その意味で、なんとなくメルケルと似た不器用さを彼に感じるのですが。

ただ、私が本文の最後に書いたのは「一度選挙に負けると、『国民の支持を得る』ことと、『党員の支持を得る』ことを同時に達成するポジションは存在しない」というものですから、プレゼンのスキルで解決できる問題ではないのかもしれません。とりあえず、あと半年、うまいことやってもらいたいところです。基本的にはしっかりした人物のようですし。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 20, 2006 at 07:14 PM

メルケルは外交に関して言えば結構よい感じでやってるようで、
最近見直しつつあるのですが、
民主党はちょっと大丈夫かなあと。

普通に考えてヤバイ金を記録に残ってしまう銀行振込にしないんじゃ
ないかということくらい党内で誰か気がつくと思うんですが。
こういうネタを出すなら嘘かもしれないということを承知で選挙直前に意図的にやるならわかるのですが。


Posted by: のびい | March 01, 2006 at 11:46 PM

のびいさん、コメントありがとうございます。

そういえばメルケルをマークするのを忘れていました。The Economistもドイツ関連は素通りで目も通さない有様で・・・あの悲惨な状態で国論をまとめるのは大変な気がしますが、外交については争点が少なかったりするんでしょうか?(でもそんなことないですよね)

民主党は・・・もう声も出ません、という感じではありますが。100歩譲って失敗したのはしょうがないとしても、その後の収集の仕方にセンスがなさすぎです。こういう人がロスカットできずに株投資で沈んでくんだろうなー、と思いながら見ていました。

ただ、状況的には「何もないほうがおかしい」と「庶民」が思って当然の状況で、最初はマスコミも全力で煽っていたにもかかわらず、世論が小揺るぎもしなかったのには少し驚きました。失言で盛り上がった民主党の長島昭久議員のブログを見物しに行ったのですが、びっくりするくらいに冷静なコメントが多かったですし・・・。10年前だったら結果が違ったんじゃないかなぁと。で、民主党はそういう前提で、勢いで乗り切れると踏んだんじゃないかなぁとも思うわけです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 04, 2006 at 05:59 AM

ついに総選挙ですね。
今、この記事に書かれたのとはまた違う方法で民主党が支持を伸ばしているようで…
どうもこのモデルはノイズがない場合にのみ成り立つようですね

Posted by: マキ | July 16, 2009 at 11:15 AM

マキさん、コメントありがとうございます。

このモデルは各政党の最適なポジショニングについて書いた物ですので、それ以外の理由で自民党が沈めば、suboptimalなポジショニングであっても選挙で大勝すると言うことは当然あると思います。(逆に、自民党側が官僚への対決姿勢を改めてしまったため、むしろ最適なポジションから離れてしまったのだ、という指摘も少し前に読みました。官僚批判が正しいとは必ずしも思いませんが、少なくとも国民の望む方向はそちらにあったのでしょうし、そこから外れれば支持を失う道理ですね)。

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference 民主党の最適戦略(下):

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国民参加型の予備選挙の構想は、11月の末に自民党の武部幹事長が提案したけど、直後に自民党内から否定意見が相次いだので、実現の可能性は低いのかとガッカリしていたところに、12月13日の中川政調会長のコラムに以下のくだりを発見した。 「自民党内の派閥の合従連衡ではなく、296議席を与えた民意によってポスト小泉が決まるのである。その意味で、55年体制の総裁選ではなく、05年体制の総裁選の形と�... [Read More]

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「小泉総理の言語能力は犬猫なみ」 総理お得意のワンフレーズ・ポリティクスを、井上ひさしさんと丸谷才一さんの対談では、こう評価していました。 総理のコミュニケーションがいかに映像を伴ってこそ意味があるかということが、 国会の党首討論をラジオで聴くと、よくわかる..... [Read More]

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俺のお薦めする本当におもしろいblogの一つに「マーケットの馬車道」がある。極東blogやマーケットの馬車道のようなblogがあるからココログは侮れない。本当にもうちょっと既存ユーザーを大事にしたほうがいいよ。 マーケットの馬車道 http://workhorse.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/ で、最近の2つのエントリーがおもしろかった。 民主党の最適戦略(上) http://workhorse.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2005/12/post_d143.ht... [Read More]

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期せずして、二つの知性派ブログが民主党の今後の戦略について考察している。 読み比べてみるとなかなか興味深い。 ■ マーケットの馬車馬: 民主党の最適戦略(上) ■ マーケットの馬車馬: 民主党の最適戦略(下) ● 世に倦む日日:民主党の「政権交代」と「対立軸」の分析 − 菅直人と前原誠司 馬車馬氏は「二大政党制の下では対立軸の設定は自殺行為であり、むしろ大多数の国民が何を望んでいるかにのみ注目すべきだ」「対立軸を明確にするこ... [Read More]

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