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民主党の最適戦略(上)

現実逃避気味にGoogle Newsを眺めていると、なにやら民主党の前原代表に党内からの批判続出、という記事を見つけた。中国で小泉首相張りの強硬な態度を示して見たり、党内左派置いてけぼりの保守風味なコメントをかましまくっているのが問題であるらしい。見出しを眺めているときは「寄り合い所帯は色々と大変ですな」程度の感想しかなかったのだが、つらつらと読んでいて『有権者の選択肢となるべき対立軸を示し得ていないことが「民主党の最大の弱点」と認めた』というくだりが気になった。

要するに、自民党が賛成することには反対し、反対することには賛成しないと、自民党との違いをアピールできない、それでは選挙を戦えない、という話なのだろう。こういう論調は結構頻繁に見かける気がするし、実際「野党が与党の法案にほいほいと賛成すべきではない」といった価値観は結構一般的であるような気がする。しかし、選挙に勝つのに本当に「対立軸」というのは必要なのだろうか?また、対立軸を用意することが本当に国民のためになるのだろうか?今日はそんな話を。


対立軸なんていらない

野党たるもの、与党の政策・法案に反対してこそ存在意義がある、という思い込みは結構根強いものがある。筆者だって、考える時間を与えられなければ反射的にそう答えてしまうかもしれない。しかし、ちょっと考えると、この思い込みにはそれほどの根拠が見当たらない。

試しに、以下のような簡単なモデルを考えて見よう。横軸は日本人の思想の度合いを示し、縦軸は人数を示している。この釣鐘型のグラフは、日本人は中道的な考え方をしている人が多く、極右・極左的になればなるほど支持者が少なくなる、ということを示している。で、青い縦棒はその中での自民党の主張の立ち居地を表している。中道よりだがちょっと右傾気味、と。で、最近の前原代表のコメントはかなり自民党よりだが、それでも靖国参拝反対とかいっているので、若干リベラル風味だろうということで、真ん中少し左に赤い線を引いて見た(以上、筆者の適当な仮定なので、ここへの反論は勘弁願いたい)。

Downs1

さて、この時国民はどうやって支持政党を決めるかというと、自分の意見に近い方を支持することになる。極右の人にとっては、自民党の政策は生ぬるく見えてしまうわけだが、それでも民主党よりは自民党のほうが自分の考え方に近いので、自民党を支持する。そんな風に全ての国民が「自分のポリシーと政党の立ち居地との距離が小さいほうを支持する」と考えると、両政党への支持は図のように黄色と水色に分かれることになる。実際、最近の小泉首相と前原代表の対中外交だけを比較して支持率を測ったら、五分五分に近い数値が出るのではないだろうか。

では、次に「自民党と同じことをやっていても支持は得られない。もっと対立軸を明確にすべきだ」という意見に従って、民主党が「自民党と明確に対立する」状況を考えて見よう。それが以下の図だ。

Downs2

自民と民主の路線ははっきり異なっているので、対立軸は明確になっている。その結果民主党への支持はどうなったか?図から明らかな通り、民主党は大敗する。ちなみに、前の図では5割あった支持率が、この図では3割に低下してしまっている。マジョリティである中道グループをごっそり自民党に持っていかれてしまったからだ。

選挙に勝つために民主党がすべきことはこの真逆だ。可能な限り自民党と同じ主張をしたほうがいい。「自民党とほとんど同じ主張だが、ほんのりリベラル風味」というポジションを取ることで、極左から中道左派まで、幅広い支持を獲得することが出来る。もちろん、左派としては右に傾いた民主党の路線は不快だろう。それでも自民党よりはましなので、民主党に投票し続けることになるわけだ。共産党に票が流れる?そうかもしれないが、今や共産党や社民党など存在しないも同じなわけで、流れる票の数など高が知れている。それよりも、大票田である中道左派をがっちりと固めることが民主党の至上命題なのだ。

で、自民党も同じ事を考えるので、最終的に自民・民主はグラフのちょうど真ん中に陣取って、半分ずつ支持を分け合うことになる。これが、政治学で大変有名な「二大政党制だと両政党の政策に違いが無くなる」というダウンズの空間競争モデル(ちなみに、ダウンズは経済学者。このモデルも元々は経済学の理屈である)だ。

こう考えると、「対立軸を明確に」というのは、自ら支持者を切り捨てる盛大な自爆戦略だということがお分かりいただけると思う。そもそも、自民党の政策を見て、それに対抗する政策を考えるという受け身なやり方自体がまるで間違っている。上の図を見れば分かるとおり、重要なのは「国民の大多数は何を望んでいるか」ということであり、「自民党からどれだけ距離をとるか」ではない。上の図で言うなら、中道ど真ん中に陣取っておけば、自民党がどのようなポジションを取ろうが、最低でも5割の支持を得ることが出来るのだから。


「野党根性」の源

こう考えると、わざわざマイナーな支持者層に引きこもろうというその姿勢に「万年野党根性が抜けてないんじゃないの」と皮肉のひとつも言いたくなるわけだが、そもそもなぜこんな考え方が根付いたのだろうか。議員センセイの皆様だって馬鹿では無いのだから、完全に非合理的なやり方を何十年も続けるというのはちょっと考えづらい。

それを考えるために、上のダウンズのモデルの弱点を考えよう。上の図では、「中道ど真ん中」に陣取ることが唯一最良の選択肢になるのだが、もし政党が3つ以上存在した場合、「最良の選択肢」そのものが消滅してしまう(試しに、上の図で適当に3本縦線を引いて、各政党が自分の「陣地」を最大にするように動かして見て頂きたい。二大政党のケースと違い、「このポジションで全ての政党が落ち着く」という状況が存在しなくなる)。上で書いた「国民の大多数が何を望んでいるか」だけを考えてポジションを決めるやり方が最適になるのは、二大政党のケースだけなのだ。

では、政党が4つくらいあった昔のケースだとどうなるだろうか。試しに、自民党・社会党・民社党・共産党の4政党があるケースを考えて見よう。共産党は当然グラフの左端に、自民党は中道右寄りに位置すると考える。で、単純化の為にこの2つの政党はポジションを変更しないと仮定する(そうしないとモデルを解けない)。で、社会党が馬鹿正直に「国民の大多数が望む」中道ど真ん中に陣取ったとき、上の図は以下のようになる。

Downs3

社会党大敗の図である。中道に寄ったはいいが、この時民社党にとっての最適戦略は「社会党の政策よりもちょっとだけリベラルにすることで中道左派を総取りする」ことになるため、中道左派をほとんど民社党に食われてしまう。そして、中道右派は言うまでも無く自民党の地盤だ。左右から挟撃された社会党は議席を大幅に減らすことになる。

この時、社会党にとっての最適戦略は「大多数の国民が望む政策を打ち出す」事ではなく、「自民党の政策から一定の距離を保つ」ことだ。そうすることによって、以下のような図になる。

Downs4

自民党との「対立軸」を明確にした結果、自民党は支持率を伸ばすが、社会党も民社党も一定の得票を得ることが出来る。この時、社会党と民社党のポジションはほとんど一致しているはずだ。つまり、多政党時代には与党との対立軸を明確にすることには意味があった。ただし、それは与党に喧嘩を売るためではなく、他の野党との競争に打ち勝つためだったのだ(要するに、社会党と民社党は「どちらがより苛烈に自民党を批判しているか」という競争を繰り広げているわけだ。左派へアピールするために。その結果、自民党の政策との距離が開くことになる)。

こう考えると、民主党で未だに対立軸対立軸と言っている人は、二大政党時代の選挙戦略に対応できず、時代遅れの戦略にしがみついている人ということができるのかもしれない。


さて、このようなことを考えたときに一番ありそうな反論は、「政党のマーケティング戦略としては正しくても、二大政党が同じようなことを主張すれば、国民から選択肢を奪うことになる。選挙の勝ち負け以前に、まず各政党は国民に選択肢を提供すべきだ」ということだろうか。これについても言いたいことはあるが、長くなりすぎたので次回に(今度はすぐ書く予定です)。


本日のまとめ

二大政党時代には、「与党の政策から距離をとって対立軸を明確化する」という戦略は支持率を減らすだけの非合理的なやり方。ただし、中選挙区時代にはむしろその戦略のほうが合理的だった。

従来よりも「自民党寄り」の路線を打ち出す前原代表のやり方は選挙戦略としては合理的。

重要なのは、自民党との距離をどう取るかではなく、大多数の国民が望んでいることは何かということ。マジョリティの望む政策を打ち出せば、自民党がどんなポジションをとっても、負け戦になることはない。


追記:昔似たような与太をしゃべった時に、「政党への支持は右か左か、みたいな単純な選択肢で決まる問題ではない。世の中には多くの評価軸が存在し、国民はそれらを複雑に考慮しながら支持政党を決めるものだ。だから、そんな単純なモデルには意味がない」という反論を頂戴したことがある。実は、経済学の世界ではこういった「評価軸が数多く存在するケース」を分析するモデルも随分昔に開発されており、それでも大体似たような結論が得られることが知られている(確か。ただし、ダウンズのモデルとは少し前提が異なる)。n次元空間を扱うことになるのでグラフ化は出来なくなるが。

そもそも、複雑でないということは本来反論の理由にはなりにくい。その単純なモデルが世の中のある一側面を見事に映し出していればそれで十分なのだから(複雑なものを複雑なまま理解できるほど、我々の脳みそは優秀ではない)。だからこそ、ダウンズのモデルも50年以上にわたって使われ続けているのだろう。

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Comments

こちらのエントリを思い出しました。
http://d.hatena.ne.jp/kanryo/20051001#p1
http://d.hatena.ne.jp/kanryo/20051002#p1

Posted by: こんぺいとう | December 19, 2005 at 11:23 AM

目からウロコが落ちる的確な分析、敬服いたします。

ただ、現状の民主党の評価は「左」からみれば自民党より「右」寄り、「右」からみれば自民党より「左」寄りに見えているように思います。

結果として自民党が左右両方の票を総取り出来るというワケで、それに対する批判が「対立軸が無い」というややすれ違ったものになっているのではないでしょうか。

Posted by: よろずもめごと論 | December 19, 2005 at 11:36 AM

今まで自分が持っていた違和感を見事に解説してくれていて、非常に感心しました。
多数派のことごとく逆張りをすれば、当然少数派になるだろうにとは思っていたのですが、なるほどそういうわけだったのかと納得できました。
ガッテン。

Posted by: HAL | December 19, 2005 at 01:18 PM

ちなみに総選挙直後にガイシュツです。

ダウンジアンモデルで見る郵政総選挙(上)/二大政党の政策が似てくるわけ http://d.hatena.ne.jp/kanryo/20051001
ダウンジアンモデルで見る郵政総選挙(下)/やっぱり民主党の位置取りの問題 http://d.hatena.ne.jp/kanryo/20051002

Posted by: τ | December 19, 2005 at 02:05 PM

って、コメント欄内でもガイシュツでした。失礼。

Posted by: τ | December 19, 2005 at 02:10 PM

はじめまして。閑話ノートと申します。
それにしても的確で妥当な分析恐れ入りました。
一方、拙ブログは回りくどく、論点がボケた論評で恥ずかしいです。
しかしながら、不思議と同意見のように感じられましたので、
別途、TBさせてください。

Posted by: 閑話ノート | December 19, 2005 at 11:10 PM

今回の話はあまり期待せずに読み始めたのですが、目から鱗とはことのことでした。ありがとうございます。

Posted by: のびい | December 20, 2005 at 01:20 AM

ちょと前のニュースに「前原党首の対案路線に反対!」みたいなのがあって、ハぁ?と思い読んでみたらその理由が「自民党には官僚のバックアップがあるがわが党には無いので法案作成に手間がかかる」(大体こんな感じ?)というもの。

「そ れ は ひ ょ っ と し て ギ ャ (以下略)」

とツッコまずにはいられませんでした。
日本の場合、野党が対立軸路線をとりたがるのは単に「ラクだから」な気がします。

Posted by: はりぼで | December 20, 2005 at 08:02 AM

はりぼでさんの言うようにラクだからというのもありそうですが、日本の野党は国政を担う気などさらさらなく権力に立ち向かう自分たちに酔っているだけのような気もします。

Posted by: bob | December 20, 2005 at 10:47 AM

だからこそのマニフェスト型選挙で、方向性は同じだけど解決手順なりが違ってて、その実行可能性が争点になると。
というかそういう方向に行かないと腐るので、一部の人が頑張ってると。
まあそんな感じなんでしょうけど、両党が国政から地方自治までを手広くカバーする、まともな政策シンクタンクを抱えるなんて無理っぽ。

Posted by: くれふ | December 20, 2005 at 08:36 PM

こんぺいとうさん、τさん、コメントありがとうございます。

かぶってますね・・・orz。まぁダウンズみたいなメジャーなネタを選んだ段階で、こういう可能性は頭の隅っこにあったのですが。まぁ、後半部は違うことを書いているということでお許しください。

今書いた続編ではダウンズをもうひと捻りしているので、だいぶ感じが違ってきていると思います(本来、これらはひとつのエントリーで書く予定で、このエントリーの前半部はそのための前置きなわけです)。まぁ、ダウンズを捻ったというより、Hotellingに先祖帰りしただけなんですが・・・。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 21, 2005 at 05:54 AM

よろずもめごと論さん、コメント&TBありがとうございます。

確かに、上で書いたような縦線は主観的なものでしかなく、その認識は人によって違うと考えると、上のモデルは一気に複雑化します(面白そうですけど)。

または、実際には右か左か、という評価軸にもいくつものチェック項目があり、そのうちのいくつかで前原代表は自民よりも右に、別のいくつかで左にいるということなのかもしれませんね。この場合、追記で書いたとおり、n次元の確率分布を考えないといけないので、ややこしいことこの上ないのですが。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 21, 2005 at 06:01 AM

HALさん、お褒め頂き恐縮です。

後半部は私の思いつきですが(とは言え、ロジックを追っかけていくとこういう結論にならざるを得ないとおもいますが・・・)、直観的にはそれほど外してもいないかな、と思っています。

へぇボタンとか付けちゃいましょうかね。そういうのも面白そうです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 21, 2005 at 06:28 AM

τさんは「ガイシュツ」とおっしゃっていますが、単に別視点の意見としてご紹介する以上の意図はありませんでした。
わたしは同じダウンズのネタを扱いながらも、違う視点からのご意見を拝見できて、非常に面白かったです。

言葉足らずで批判的に受け取れるコメントをしてしまい、すみませんでした。
次のエントリも勉強になりました。これからも馬車馬さんのエントリを楽しみにしています。

Posted by: こんぺいとう | December 21, 2005 at 08:03 PM

閑話ノートさん、コメントありがとうございます。

TBもありがとうございました。コメントはそちらにお邪魔させていただきました。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 24, 2005 at 02:57 AM

のびいさん、コメントありがとうございます。

最初はこのエントリーの前半部分しか考えておらず、つまらんのでお蔵入りしていたのですが、最近(下)の内容を思いついたのでエントリーを起こしてみました。このエントリーの後半はノリと勢いです(笑)。そのせいで単独エントリーのはずが2回に・・・。もうひとつ考えていたのですが、原稿を書き上げた後でモデルに穴を見つけてお蔵入りにしました。また使う機会があればよいのですが。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 24, 2005 at 03:02 AM

はりぼでさん、コメントありがとうございます。

萎える話ですね・・・。折角人が必死に彼らの行動の合理性を探しているというのに。まぁ、左の端っこの方にいる人は政策の実効性なぞ端から問題にしていないのでしょうから、そういう政治家も生き残る余地があるのでしょうが・・・。「お前は共産党に逝けよ」といってしまいたくてしょうがありません。あそこでなら「戦闘機一機分のお金でアフリカの子供が10万人救える!」とか言ってても構わないのでしょうから。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 24, 2005 at 03:07 AM

bobさん、コメントありがとうございます。

本当にそうならもう消えてくれ、と言いたくなる話ですが、多分両者が混ざっているのでしょうね。私が個人的に存じ上げている民主党議員は官僚出身で、往時であれば間違いなく自民党に入ったと思えるタイプの人です。若手にそういう使える人材が蓄積されてきていることは事実なのだと思います。

ただ、当選回数の多い年寄りにbobさんが指摘されるような気質の持ち主が多いような気はするんですよね・・・。現在の支持基盤を守ることに汲々としてもジリ貧だ、ということくらい分からないのでしょうか・・・((下)のエントリーの最後に書いた話です)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 24, 2005 at 03:14 AM

くれふさん、コメントありがとうございます。

実際問題としては細かい法律論までカバーできるようなシンクタンクを民主党が持つのは難しいと思います。

その辺りは、逆に「方向性は違うんだけど、やることはほとんど同じ」(要は、同じ政策に対する意味づけが異なる)みたいなやり方を狙うことで細かい議論をスキップするテクもあるかもしれませんね。思いつきでしかないんですが・・・

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 24, 2005 at 03:20 AM

こんぺいとうさん、ご丁寧にありがとうございます。

もともと「批判」として受け取っていたわけでは無いのですが、確かに勘違いしていました。ごめんなさい。
「勉強になる」とまでおっしゃっていただき恐縮です。私も間違ったことを書かないように精進しようと思います(ほんと気をつけないと・・)。

今後ともよろしくお願いいたします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 24, 2005 at 03:25 AM

重要なのは大多数の国民が望んでいることは何かということ、ということはまさに、愚民の上に苛き政府ありということですね。

Posted by: オイロン | December 24, 2005 at 11:37 PM

明らかに経済学を習得しておられる方の論理展開で、大変スッキリと合理的なため、自分としては読んでいて気持ちがいいです。

モデルによる抽象化に対し、「現実は複雑」としたり顔で言う人たちはいつの時代もいるものですが、ホントどうにかしてほしいものです。何の批判にもなっていないことにどうか気づいてほしい。文系の人に多いような気がします。

Posted by: ゴリ | December 26, 2005 at 01:17 AM

オイロンさん、コメントありがとうございます。

うーん、このエントリーのように議会制民主主義を前提とした議論に、愚民思想はちょっとずれているように思います。

国民が「統治のスペシャリスト」たる政治家や官僚に比べて関連情報を持っていないことは事実です(ただし、それを愚民と呼称するのには強い違和感を感じます。単にスペシャリティが違うだけのことですから)。国民が平均的に見て「間違った」方向に向かっているときに、それを「啓蒙」する作業は必要かも知れません。しかし、それはこのエントリーで論じた「政党の主張をどう設定すべきか」とは全く独立に存在する問題です。

今回の選挙で、自民民主を問わず選挙に負けた後に愚民思想的なコメントを残した方が多くいらっしゃいますが、そんな負け犬の遠吠え以下のことをする前に、国民を「啓蒙」出来なかった自分の非力と無能をこそ責めるべきでしょう。また、「啓蒙」出来る、又は出来た、と信じて「大衆に迎合しない」対立軸を設定したのであれば、自分の能力に対する過信と国民の志向を読み取る能力の欠如を責めるべきです。

更に書くと、大衆に迎合してはダメだ、政党は真に正しい政策を追い求めるべきだ、みたいなことをおっしゃる方の主張も、他のスペシャリストから見れば愚にも付かない代物だ、ということは往々にあるわけです。というより、全ての「正しい意見」には相応の「アンチテーゼ」が伴うことを覚悟しておいた方が無難でしょう。

そう考えれば、「愚民たる大衆へ安易に迎合した」政策への非難というのはそれほど軽々に行うべきものではないと私は思います。このような非難に一聴の価値が出るのは、非難した人がその根拠となる「正しい政策」とその論拠を説得力のある形で示した時だけではないでしょうか。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 27, 2005 at 12:25 AM

ゴリさん、コメントありがとうございます。お褒め頂き恐縮です。

「思考の軸足(私の勝手な造語ですので、ニュアンスが通じるかどうか不安ですが)」があると、何を論じるのも凄く楽になるものだと思います。議論の前提条件が明確になっているので、その枠内では自信を持って論ずることも出来ますし(すれ違い防止にもなります)。

後半部については全く同感です。もちろん、過度の単純化が問題となることはありますが、それが非難されるのは「単純化したこと」自体ではなく、「単純化した結果重要な要素が抜け落ち、その抜けた要素を考慮に入れると結論が変わってしまうこと(=頑健でないこと)」が非難されるわけですよね。その辺りをスキップして単純化それ自体を非難されるのはかなわないなぁと。

私も文系なので耳が痛いですが、手前味噌な発言をお許しいただくと、経済学以外の文系科学では「統一された前提条件における一般的な理論」の構築があまり行われていないせいのような気もします。政治学は最近ゲーム理論家が大挙参入しているので、そのうち変わってくるかもしれませんが・・・。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | December 27, 2005 at 12:47 AM

文系理系について言葉が足らないところがあったかもしれ
ません。
大学の数学科が理学部にあることをヒントに、理系の定義を
「数学的思考が求められる学問分野」とすれば、経済学は
ほとんど理系だと思っています。マル経は論外ですが。

こちらのブログでは、それと言わずに明らかにゲーム理論の
視点を導入した論評などもあって、それが好きです。
小泉さんのような優れた勘とセンスを持った一部の例外を
除いて、政治家がゲーム論を基本的に共有してくれれば良い
のになんて思ってしまいます。特にマル経出身者。

Posted by: ゴリ | December 29, 2005 at 11:54 AM

馬車馬さんコメントありがとうございます。

ずれているということだったんですが、「政党の主張をどう設定すべきか」という問題と政党が主張を設定するときに起こる問題(例えば国民が「間違った」方向に向かっていて、政党は選挙に勝つためには「間違った」政策を主張するのか)は独立に存在しているということでしょうか。

確かに真に正しい政策なんてものはないと自分も思うので、大衆に迎合した政策を軽々と非難できないものだと考え直しました。

いつもこちらのブログを楽しく読ませていただいています。これからは、ずれたコメントをしないように気をつけていきますので、これからもよろしくお願いします。

Posted by: オイロン | January 01, 2006 at 08:32 PM

ゴリさん、あけましておめでとうございます。

確かに、その点からは理系に分類されてもおかしくないんでしょうね。その結果、物理学や工学をやっている人以上に数学コンプレックスが強くなっているようにも見えますが(笑)。実験が出来ないのがつらいところです。

一応経済系ブログということで、経済以外の話をする際にはゲーム論のネタを極力忍ばせるようにしています。ただ、モデルの名前を出してしまうとコケオドシっぽくなってしまうのと、理解を伴わずにモデルの名前だけが一人歩きしてしまう恐れがありそうなので、それは避けているのですが。

そういう書き方をしていると、テキストを読んでいるときには気づかないモデルの制約(common knowledge of rationalityとか・・・)に気づかされて、結構面白いです。

あと、マル経はそろそろ文学部に移籍した方がいいような気がします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 02, 2006 at 10:44 PM

オイロンさん、あけましておめでとうございます。

私の頭にあったのは、政党の国民に対するアプローチは「図の中のどこにポジションを取るか」ということと、「国民の分布それ自体を変更する」という2種類に分割できるだろう、ということです。選挙では投票日の1ヶ月前にはポジションを確定せねばなりませんから、「今の国民の分布」と「国民の分布をこれから1ヶ月でどれだけ変更できるか」からポジションをきめることになる、と。

政党が「国民の分布は間違っている」が「国民の分布を変化させるほど啓蒙は出来ない」と考えたとき、「自党が正しいと考える政策」を押し通すのは傲慢ではないかと思います。もしその政策が失敗したときに責任を取れる人がいませんから。党首が首をくくったところで、経済失政の結果自殺した人々に対して責任が取れるわけではありません。結局国政の責任は個々の国民で分担するしかないわけで。

その責任分担のための儀式が選挙であり、ある意味そういう無責任な政党を排除するための選挙でもあるのかもしれませんね。

改めて前の私のコメントを読んでみましたが、なんだか棘がありますね・・・。愚民、という言葉に過剰反応したのかもしれません。失礼なコメントをお詫びします。今後ともお見捨てなく、よろしくお願いいたします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 02, 2006 at 11:19 PM

初めまして、ウルトラCを始めました。
簡単に説明すると、民主党党員三万人しかいないから、
みんなで入党して変えちゃおうぜというものです。
嫌韓流が30万部売れたことなどから、思い付きました。

趣旨とかFAQは、
民主党の中の人になろう http://www.nakanohito.org
に上の趣旨とか見れば、この計画で大体なにができるのか、
馬車馬さんなら、思い付くと思います。
それを言語化していくのが面倒臭いんですけどね。

私のブログはhttp://righty.sblo.jp
にあります。

Posted by: ミギー | January 13, 2006 at 04:22 AM

ミギーさん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが遅れてごめんなさい・・・いつもこんななんです。

面白いですね、それは。というか党員が3万人というのにびっくりしました。自民党って数十万人はいませんでしたっけ?大変面白い試みだと思います。

自民党は「総裁選で党員以外にも投票権を」と言っていますね。ある意味、ミギーさんの運動と通じる部分があるように思います(それが実現するかどうかはともかく、ねらっている部分ははっきりしていると思います)。小泉首相は議院内閣制の下で、支持率を梃子に指導力を握る擬似的大統領制を敷こうとしているのかもしれませんね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 19, 2006 at 02:49 AM

党員は3万人です。内訳はほとんど議員個人の後援会
関係者と思います。政治に関する知識のレベルは一般の人に極めて近く。
自民党の長期政権はダメだなーとか、政策に特に詳しくない感じの人がほとんどです。
リフレを理解してるとか、政策に詳しい、そういう人は2パーセントも居ないと思います。

入党するまで左の人ばかりだと思ってたのですが、
特に党員は右でも左でもないですね。強烈にどちらかを
支持してる人はほぼいないと言っても過言ではないと思います。

付き合いで入党してる人がほとんどなので、
党務や政治にほとんど興味を持たず、右系も左系も議員は
地元で白熱した政策討論とか党員とはできません。
地元の党活動と言えば、主にどぶ板で知識のある人間としては結構寂しいのではないかと。

現在、政治に関して、知識のある層はほとんど、
政党に入党するという選択肢を考えていないのが現状ではないかと思います。
私もこれを思い付くまでは、今の与党も野党もダメだなと思っていても、
政策実現に新党作るとか、現実的ではない方法しか思い付きませんでした。

政策知識のある人で実現を諦めていた人には大チャンスかと思います。
あとはいかに民主党の中の人になろうっていう計画にその人達から、知識の投資をして貰うかですね。

私も当然知らない事はありますが、
ネットで見る右系の人も知識不足から、間違った事を言ってる場合があります。
でも、この集団を理解力はある程度ある集合と見て、
知識のある人が諦めずに、布教していくのが計画の成長のポイントかなと思います。

結構これがむづかしかったりするのですけどね。
民主党を改革するって案に、「おっ」と思う人でも、民主党の中の人になろうが
今、現在ダメな部分があるのを見て、途端に諦める場合が多いかなと思いますしね。
民主党を改革できる様に、中の人になろうも改革できるとは考えなかったりします。
同じ構造なのですけど、人間の限界で、ちょっと構造が変わるだけで
違うものに見えて、途端に諦めたりします。

小泉首相は首相公選制を導入すべきだと
首相になる以前は言っていました。

自民党の現在の党員を考えると100万の内訳はこれも後援会関係者と、
あと中小企業の関係者が多いのではないかなと思います。
基本的に政策に詳しい人間が、党員になるというのは日本ではあまりないかと。
長期政権の与党なので大規模なのだと思われます。
現在自民党は党員がバリバリ減ってるのですが、構造改革で、
中小企業系の人が特に抜けていってるのではないかと思います。
地方の流出が特に大きいでしょうね。

ずいぶん前に、自民党の議員の地元への報告会の観察に行った事がありますが、
見たところ聴衆の感じからして、党員の内訳はそんな感じかと思います。
はっきりと統計とったわけではないのですが、議員へも高度な質問などは出ませんでしたし。

それでもまだ、そういう人達が多いので、小泉首相は
その辺の票に対抗して、構造改革路線を続ける為に、党員以外の投票を
受けようという方向に持っていきたいのだと思います。

Posted by: ミギー | January 21, 2006 at 04:58 PM

ミギーさん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが遅れてごめんなさい。

知識の或る人をどうやって政党活動にコミットさせるかというのは難しい問題ですよね。むしろ政治臭がつくのを嫌う人のほうが多いように思います。メリットありませんから。結局、政治家とのお付き合いがメリットになるような人だけが党員になるわけで・・・。そうやって党内世論が偏っていくんでしょうね(知識人ばかりでも偏りますが)。

その辺りをどう解決していくか(インセンティブの問題)が難しいのでしょうね。だからこそ、政治臭をつけずに参加者を募る「党員外からの参加」も一案になるのでしょうね(現実的には大変そうですが)。

蛇足ですが、私もリフレというのはよく理解していません。定義が曖昧すぎて何をもって理解というのやら良く分からない、という感じです。対立する理論が両方ともリフレ呼ばわりされてたりしますし。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 28, 2006 at 10:59 PM

知識のある人が参加するメリットは、
自分達で党を立ち上げて衆院選で訴えるには、
理解者不足で多数派形成するのがむづかしそうな
政策の実現可能性がかなり高い事になるかと。

例えばデジタル関連のDRMや、著作権に詳しい人が参加する場合、
衆院選でそういう方面で先進的な政策を持つ党を
作っても政権取るのはむづかしいと思いますが、
民主党のそっち方面の政策を中から変えてしまえば、
民主党が政権取る事で、その政策は遥かに楽に実現できます。

現状の政策がイマイチで不満がある場合、
知識のある人はネットで愚痴るとか、諦めるとかぐらいしか
選択肢がなかったので、そういう諦めていた人達にとっては
面白い選択肢だと思います。日本の二大政党の一翼を担うにも
関わらず、わりかし少ない人数で変えられる規模ですから。

そういう知識のある人が知識を投資するに足る様な
マーケットにしていかないとダメですけどね。
提案された政策を見たときにぱっと思い付く、デメリットにしか目が行かず、
提案者が叩かれまくるとかでは、投資意欲減退するでしょうし。

またデメリットの事を考えず、メリットしか考えられないみたいな
集団も投資対象としてはダメかと思われます。
ダメな政策をバンバン採用していく事になるでしょうし。

む、リフレは対立する概念が両方ともリフレと呼ばれてたりするんですね。
私ももうちょっと勉強が必要そうです。

あと民主党の党員は付き合いがメリットになる様な人はあんまりいないかなと思います。
知合いに頼まれたからやむを得ずみたいな人がほとんどかなと。

Posted by: ミギー | January 29, 2006 at 02:47 AM

今更ですが、民社党は経済的な政策スタンスはともかく、外交や思想の点ではかなり右寄りの政党です。よって、あなたの指標にはかなり問題があるように思えます。

Posted by: narazuke | February 01, 2006 at 09:18 PM

ミギーさん、コメントありがとうございます。

なるほど、おっしゃることは良く分かります。最近官僚出身で敢えて民主党からの出馬を選ぶ人たちも似たような考えを持っているのかもしれませんね。
ある意味、民主党が大負けした今がベストタイミングということにもなりそうです。

リフレについては、とにかく定義が曖昧すぎて「リフレに対して」賛成反対を論じることが出来ません(これは「今週のThe Economist:日はまた昇る」のコメント欄で詳しく書いてあります)。分かりやすいところだと、クルーグマンとスヴェンソンは両方とも「リフレ派」とされているようですが、スヴェンソンの論文を読めば、彼がクルーグマンの論文に反論していることはすぐに分かります。結局、「リフレ」の共通項は「デフレを放置するのは望ましくない」程度のことでしかなく、そんなことはそこら辺の入門書を読めばすぐに出てくる結論な訳です。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 02, 2006 at 04:17 AM

narazukeさん、コメントありがとうございます。

実のところ、民社党のポジショニングがどこにあるかというのは本文の結論に特に影響しません。違和感がおありであれば、公明党に置き換えるか、民社党を取り除いて共産と社会党が左翼を奪い合う構図にしても同じ結論が得られます。

そもそも、(本文でも書きましたが)横軸を右翼左翼で定義したのは説明の便宜上にすぎず、本来は多数ある評価軸によって形成されるn次元超平面をむりやり1次元であらわしているわけです(ぴんと来なければ、平均値を取っているとでもお考え下さい)。本文冒頭で「この仮定に対する突っ込みはご勘弁願いたい」と申し上げているのはその辺りに理由があります。

この点については、このエントリーにTBをくださったBewaadさんのコメント欄と、(下)のコメント欄でもう少し詳しく論じていますので、そちらもあわせてご覧下さい。

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» 英保守党のキャメロン新党首と民主党の前原代表 [庄治の世界戦略]
イギリス最大野党である保守党に新党首が誕生して話題になってる。デービッド・キャメロン保守党新党首は39歳の若手で中道右派。ブレア首相が中道左派路線で中道票を労働党に呼び込んで政権交代を成し遂げたのに対して、中道票を保守党に取り戻す役目が期待されている。 ブレア首相もキャメロン氏も中庸志向だったために、キャメロン氏は一部で「ブレア首相のコピー」と皮肉られていたが、キャメロン氏が党首になった後の世論調査では、10年間も支持率で負けつづけた保守党が労働党... [Read More]

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» 前原民主党大会 [閑話ノート]
16、17日両日開かれた民主党大会。 前原代表は憲法改正や安保・防衛政策で党内に一大論争を巻き起こした。 党内論争を期待するというよりも、対立をあおるかのような手法に思われるが、党内批判を承知の上である。 これは前原代表が党運営の強い指導力を示そうとする戦略でもあると思う。 小泉首相や自民党武部幹事長が投げかける、いわゆる「大連立」構想が、時あたかも、民主党内に混乱を招いている。 前原代表の政策を推し進めれば、自民党との差は限りな... [Read More]

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» [politics]2005年を振り返る(7)‐総選挙の先にあるもの [bewaad institute@kasumigaseki]
このエントリは上の続きでもあります・・・が、本題に入る前に当サイトではおなじみの馬車馬さんによる「民主党の最適戦略(上)」をとくとご覧いただきたいと思います。馬車馬さんがご説明のダウンズ・モデルをご理解いただいた前提で話を進めます。 さて、馬車馬さんの上記エントリの最後に次のようなテキストがあります。 昔似たような与太をしゃべった時に、「政党への支持は右か左か、みたいな単純な選択肢で決まる問題ではない。世の中には多�... [Read More]

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