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インフレ・ターゲット(3):デフレに使える政策・使えない政策

困ったことになってきた。筆者の目算としては「量的緩和」解除は早くても4月で、それを前提にこのシリーズ物を書いていたのだが。前回でインフレターゲットの経済学的な議論を一通り網羅し、今回「もうひとつのインフレターゲット」を紹介し、次回でその「もうひとつのインフレターゲット」の中身を説明して第5回で今後日銀がどうすべきかを書く。その上で今日銀がやろうとしていることをちゃんと評価する、というのが当初の狙いだったのだが、各種報道が正しいならこの予定は完全に崩れたことになる(新聞の飛ばし記事には何度も煮え湯を飲まされているので、実際に解除されるかどうかは筆者は予想しないが)。

本当はここで量的緩和解除に関するエントリーを書きたいところなのだが、そのためにはやはりゼロ金利下での金融政策とは何なのか、特に日銀が行ってきた当座預金残高ターゲットという量的緩和政策は何であったのか(政策の本質は何であったのか、有効だったのか・そうでなかったのか)を整理しなければまともな議論など出来はしない。そこで、あせる気持ちを抑えつつ、敢えてインフレターゲットの続きを書きたい。実際に解除されるか、または解除がいよいよ確定的になったら、速報的に別途エントリーを書くことにしよう。


インフレターゲットの本質

前回のエントリーは恐らく多くの読者の方にとってかなりとっつきにくいものだったのではないかと思う。なにしろ、大学院修士レベルで習うインフレターゲットの議論をほぼ全て詰め込んでしまったので。逆に言うならば、「インフレターゲットって何?」という疑問に対しては、前置きとしての第1回と本論の第2回でほぼ網羅的に説明されている。

ただ、なんにせよ説明不足は否めないので、改めて前回の内容を簡単に纏めて見たい。ここでの登場人物はふたりだ。ひとりは中央銀行。もうひとりは中銀以外の人々の総体としての「民間部門」。中銀はインフレ率を低めに抑えたいと思っているが、同時に失業率も低めに抑えたいと思っている。民間部門は中銀がコントロールするインフレ率を正確に予想しようと思っている。で、今のインフレ率が2%、失業率がちょっと高めの7%だったとしてみよう。中銀は2%のインフレ率はちょうど良いと思っており、民間もそれを知っているので、中銀が2%のインフレを維持すると予想して期待インフレ率を2%にしている。

さて、中銀は失業率7%は高すぎると思っている。なんとかこれをせめて6%まで引き下げたい。ただし、失業率を下げるためには、民間の予想を裏切るような高いインフレ率を設定しなければならない。予想通りの景気回復(=インフレ率上昇)が起こっても、各企業はあらかじめそんなことは織り込んで雇用計画を立てているため、失業率は変化しないからだ。予想以上の売り上げがあったときだけ、企業は慌てて追加人員を探すことになる(詳しくは第2回の注1を参照)。今期待インフレ率は2%なので、この期待を裏切ってインフレ率を3%にすることで、失業率を6%まで引き下げることが出来るわけだ(注1)。

ところが、民間だって馬鹿ではない。中銀が「物価の番人」であることを止めて失業率を回復させようとすることなど先刻お見通しだ。インフレ予想に失敗すればビジネスで損が出る(物価と景気は連動しているから、インフレ予想に失敗するのは景気の先行きを読み損ねるのと同じになる)。彼らだって真剣なのだ。そこで、彼らはあらかじめ期待インフレ率を3%にして中銀の(予想される)裏切りに対処する。

そうすると、中銀は失業率を6%に下げるために、インフレ率を4%にして再度民間の予想を裏切らねばならなくなる。民間はそれをも予想して期待インフレ率を4%にする。このいたちごっこが続き、期待インフレ率が(例えば)7%くらいになったところで、とうとう中銀は失業率の改善をあきらめる。一応彼らは物価の番人なのだ。あまり高いインフレ率は許容できない。結果として、期待インフレ率は7%、失業率も7%という経済が出来上がるこの時、中銀は実際のインフレ率も7%に設定せざるを得ない。なぜなら、ここで当初の予定通りインフレ率を2%にしてしまうと、逆の方向に民間を裏切ることになるからだ。企業は予想外の景気後退(=デフレ)に慌てて従業員のクビを切り、失業率は7% + (7% - 2%) = 12%にまで上昇してしまう。

ここで重要なのは、たとえ中銀が最初から「失業率は改善したいけど、やっぱりインフレ率2%は守り抜かないと」と内心思っていたとしても、期待インフレ率は7%まで上がってしまうということ。民間が「中銀は失業率の為にインフレ率抑制を放棄するかも」と疑心暗鬼になってしまった段階で、期待インフレ率は上昇してしまうのだ。そして、中銀は高いままの失業率と勝手に上昇してしまったインフレ率の板ばさみに遭って頭を抱えることになる。こんなはずじゃなかったのに、と。この「疑心暗鬼による期待インフレ率の上昇分」をインフレバイアスと呼ぶ

逆に言えば、この疑心暗鬼さえ取り除いてやればインフレバイアスは解消できるわけで、そのために「我々はこのインフレ率を達成することを誓います!」というインフレターゲットが必要になるわけだ。もちろん、ただ宣言しただけで疑心暗鬼が消えるわけではない。民間が「中銀は本気だ」と信じたくなるような仕組みも同時に設定する必要がある。

この疑心暗鬼が「中央銀行の信頼性」という概念と直結していることはすぐに分かるだろう。「物価の番人」としての中銀を信頼できないから疑心暗鬼に陥るのだ。そして、この信頼性を回復するために中銀は何らかの目標を設定して自分の行動を縛る必要がある。それがインフレターゲットであり、広義にはそれ以外の金融政策ルール(マネーサプライの伸び率を一定にする、金利を一定水準に保つ、などなど)の存在意義な訳だ。

なによりも重要なのは、我々はここで「中央銀行の信頼性」という至極あいまいな概念に明確な定義を得たということだ。「日銀への信頼」という言葉はそのあいまいさ故に、昨今余りにも便利に使われすぎているように思う。恐らく、同じ「信頼」という言葉を使って同じ金融政策を肯定することも否定することも出来るだろう。そんな言葉には何の意味も無いのだ。この点は次回更に掘り下げる予定。

そして、もうひとつ重要なのが、中央銀行がこの信頼性を回復させるためには何らかのターゲットを設定して自分の両手を縛る必要があること。すなわち、政策の柔軟性を犠牲にしないと信頼は得られないということ。こちらは第5回で改めて議論する。


インフレターゲットでデフレを解決?

さて、上の議論では、日銀は低めのインフレターゲットを設定することで高くなりがちなインフレ率を低く抑えることが出来る、と書いた。それなら、「逆に高めのインフレターゲットを設定すれば、デフレから脱出することもできるんじゃ?」というのは、ごく自然な発想だろう。だが、結論から書くと、上の議論はインフレ抑制に使うことは出来ても、デフレ脱却に使うことは出来ない

なぜかを説明するのは簡単だ。上で書いたとおり、インフレターゲットは「中央銀行が失業率を改善させるために、物価抑制をないがしろにするのでは?」という疑心暗鬼(インフレバイアス)の解消の為に存在する。では、この逆、デフレバイアスとでも呼ぶべき疑心暗鬼は存在するのだろうか?

これはありえない。昨今の日銀の言動は好意的な解釈がほとんど不可能な代物だが、「日銀は、失業率をもっと悪化させたいので、その結果デフレが進行してもしょうがないと思っている」などと民間が信じるほどにトチ狂っているわけでもあるまい。今の日銀には解決すべき疑心暗鬼など存在しないのだ(これは、今の日銀の信頼性が実は高いことを意味する。残念ながらこの信頼性はネガティブな代物なのだが、この点も第5回で)。

また、第2回の最初に仮定したように、上の議論は「中央銀行が実際のインフレ率をコントロールできる」という前提の上に成立するものだ。ゼロ金利下でろくな政策手段を持たず、インフレ率をコントロールしようのない日銀には、端から関係のない議論なのだ

これに対して予想される反論は、「いや、ニュージーランド等で昔インフレターゲットを使ってデフレから脱却したケースがある」というものだろう(第1回のコメント欄でもそのような反論があり得る旨ご指摘を頂いた)。筆者はニュージーランドのケースは知らないが、バーナンキとミシュキンもスウェーデンのケースを引いて似たようなことを書いている。ただ、この件は次回改めて考えることにしたい(エントリーが長くなりすぎるので)。


じゃぁ、デフレにはどう対処すればよいのか・よかったのか

では、インフレターゲットは使えないとして、我々はどうすればよいのだろうか。手っ取り早い方法としては、金融政策以外の政策を使うやり方がある。つまり、財政政策円安政策。円安政策は金融政策の一部ともいえるが、特に日本では所管も異なるし、経済学的にも意味合いが異なるのでここでは分けて考える。ところが、この方法を実行するのはどうにも難しい。

財政政策は財政赤字が積みあがり過ぎてしまっていて、もし減税を行っても「その分近い将来に増税する気でしょ。だったら減税分は貯金しておかなくちゃ」ということになって財政政策の効果はゼロになる(ただし、こうなるのは人々の行動が十分に合理的な場合。筆者自身は必ずしも信じていないが、上のインフレターゲットの議論でこの合理性を仮定しているので、そう考えないとつじつまが合わなくなるのである)。円安政策は外交的に困難だ。

「金利がゼロになっても量的緩和があるじゃないか!金融政策でもまだまだいけるんだ!」という暴論は5年前にはまかり通っていたわけだが、第1回第2回のコメント欄や1年前の「金融政策論議の不思議」シリーズでも再三書いたとおり、そもそも量的緩和は金利を下げるためにあるのであって、ゼロ金利になったらそれ以上の緩和は意味がない。クルーグマンもJapan’s Trap論文で今量的緩和をやっても全く意味がないことを示しているし、筆者の知る限り「今量的緩和をすることに意味がある」と主張している学者はほとんどいない(注2)。

じゃぁどうすんだよ、ということになるのだが、実はもうひとつ手段がある。それは、「将来の金融緩和」を約束すること。「今金融緩和できないのは今金利がゼロだからであって、将来どこかの時点で景気が回復すればまた金利はプラスになるはずだ。そのときに必要の無い金融緩和(利下げ)を行ってインフレ率を高めに誘導する。そう約束するから、期待インフレ率を今上げてくれ」と日銀が民間に頼めばいいわけである(期待インフレ率が上がれば実際のインフレ率も上がることは第1回で説明した。これでデフレから脱出できるわけだ)。

この「約束」は、結果的に「将来の高いインフレ率を約束する」という意味で、なんとなく上で説明したインフレターゲットに似ている。そこで、この「将来の金融緩和の約束」もインフレターゲットと呼ばれることになった。これが、第1回で説明した「もうひとつのインフレターゲット」だ。世界的には、第2回と今回の前半で説明した議論がインフレターゲットとして認知されており、この「もうひとつのインフレターゲット」は議論としては亜流だ。通常、説明なしに「インフレターゲット」といえば前者を意味する(ただし、日本では事情が異なる)。

困ったことに、この「似非」インフレターゲットは、名前が同じ癖に本質的には上で説明した「本当の」インフレターゲットとはかなり異なるメカニズムを持つ。次回はその辺りを説明したい。


本日のまとめ

インフレターゲットの議論は、中央銀行の信頼性は何かを定義し、そしてその信頼性と金融政策の柔軟性が両立させられないことを示した点に本質がある(前回説明した動学的不整合性が存在するときに、信頼がない状態だと定義するわけだ)。

このインフレターゲットの議論は、デフレをインフレにするためには使えない。疑心暗鬼によって生まれるインフレバイアスはインフレターゲットで解消できるが、デフレバイアスは最初から存在しないため。

代わりに、「将来景気が良くなったときに金融緩和をして、インフレ率を高めに誘導する」と約束することで、現在の期待インフレ率を上昇させ、ひいては現在のインフレ率をも上昇させる、という手段がある。これも一見インフレターゲットに見えるので、インフレターゲットと呼ばれているが、その本質は「本家」インフレターゲットとはだいぶ異なる。

世界的には、前者のインフレターゲットが議論上でも政策的にも主流。


注1:失業率とインフレ率が同じだけ増えたり減ったりするのに理由はない。ただの仮定であり、現実には異なるだろう。ちなみに、こういう状態をsacrifice ratioが1である、と言う。
また、この段落の議論には若干ごまかしがある。正しくは第1回の注1及び経済学の入門書で「フィリップスカーブ」の項目を参照されたい。

注2:敢えて言えば清滝=ムーアの最近の論文が量的緩和賛成に近いと思うが、彼らのモデルでは国債=貨幣なので、株だの土地だのでも買わない限り量的緩和の意味はない。つまり、少なくとも現行の日銀の量的緩和のサポートにはならない(彼らのモデルでは長期国債と貨幣の同一性がグレーゾーンになっていたような気がする。ただ、買い切りオペでterm premiumを圧縮できる、と考えるのはやはり無理があるだろう)。
また、量的緩和と財政拡大の組み合わせはバーナンキ他様々な学者によって提唱されているし、筆者も有効だと思っている。これについては次回軽く触れる予定。

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Comments

どうも、はじめまして。

馬車馬さんがおっしゃる「もうひとつのインフレターゲット」、一般には「時間軸政策」と呼ばれてませんか? 私が馬車馬さんの意図を汲み取れず、「時間軸政策」と「もうひとつのインフレターゲット」は別物なのだというのでしたら申し訳ございません。

また、「失業率が7%」という最と最後初の状況。なぜ中央銀行が政策を行っても失業率7%の状況に戻るのか、一応前提の披露が必要ではないかと思います(これが「ごまかし」なのでしょうか)。私の理解では、7%では自然失業率、追加雇用を企業が行っても労働者をなかなか雇い入れられない状況なので、失業率の減少が一時的になる(長期フィリップスと短期フィリップスの違い)、ということだと思ったのですが、馬車馬さんの意図を汲み取れているでしょうか。…この理解で正しいという前提で申し上げるコメントであまり本質的ではないのですが、7%という日本の基準からしたら高失業率を自然失業率と前提するには、中央銀行の能力は思われてるほど大きくないという方向に読者の誤解を誘導しませんか。

Posted by: 紅玉 | March 05, 2006 at 01:25 PM

すいません、論旨にはあまり関係が無いところですが、質問させてください。

> そこで、彼らはあらかじめ期待インフレ率を3%にして中銀の(予想される)裏切りに対処する。
> そうすると、中銀は失業率を6%に下げるために、インフレ率を4%にして再度民間の予想を裏切らねばならなくなる。

ここのくだりがちと理解できませんで、民間が予想インフレ率を3%としたのなら、それは民間がインフレ率があたかも3%のように行動する、ということになるはずで、すると失業率も6%に下がるべきではないでしょうか?

Posted by: 鳳天 | March 05, 2006 at 10:10 PM

紅玉さん、はじめまして。コメントありがとうございます。

おっしゃるとおり、時間軸政策は「もうひとつのインフレターゲット」のバリエーションのひとつです。次回紹介する予定ですが、エガットソン=ウッドフォードの論文でもまさに「ある物価水準を達成するまでゼロ金利を維持し続ける」と約束できるならば、デフレから脱却できる、という主張があります。

それから自然失業率ですが、想定としては自然失業率は7%未満、例えば3-4%であると仮定して議論を進めました。また、上記の全ての議論は短期を前提に行っています。中長期の定義は「実際のインフレ率=期待インフレ率」ですから、中長期の議論では裏切りもへったくらも無いわけですね(失業率は自然失業率に必ず収束するため、失業率も変わりません)。

インフレターゲットの議論は、ここであげたものだけでなく、全ての議論が短期だけに焦点を絞ったものだとご理解いただいて問題ないと思います。中長期では、中央銀行は失業率に影響を与えずインフレ率をコントロールでき、かつ失業率は定数になるため、そもそも解決すべき問題が消滅するのです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 05, 2006 at 11:24 PM

鳳天さん、コメントありがとうございます。

ご指摘いただいた点こそが正に私が「ごまかし」と書いた部分であります(いや、注を書いておいて良かったと安心しました)。

そもそも、民間とひと括りに表現したのがごまかしの始まりで、本来は雇い主と労働者に分けて考えねばなりません。労働者は現状の失業率と期待インフレ率などに基づいて要求賃金を決め、雇い主はその要求賃金を受け入れてそれを元に価格を決定します。日銀は金融政策で失業率をコントロールすることでこのプロセス全体に影響を及ぼします。

日銀が利下げをすると、需要が刺激され、それに見合うだけの供給増が要求されます。そのためにはもっと人を雇わねばならないわけですが、既に企業は利益が出るぎりぎりまで雇用を増やしていると仮定されているので、そのままであれば雇用は増えず、生産も増えません。

つまり、経済は雇用主に更なる利益を提供せねばならず、それが価格上昇になります。価格が上がることで利益率が上がり、雇用主は更に人員を増やして生産を拡大する気になるわけです。こうして需要増と供給増のバランスが取れます。

これが、日銀が失業率を下げてインフレ率を上げるメカニズムです。

ただし、価格上昇が利益率上昇に繋がるのは、労働者の賃金が固定されていると仮定されているからです(同時に賃金も増加したら、雇い主の利益は元の水準まで減ってしまい、追加雇用のインセンティブは消滅するため)。労働者の賃金は雇用契約を結んだ当時の彼らの期待インフレ率に基づいています。日銀は、彼らの予想を裏切ることで、彼らの賃金を実質的に引き下げ(物価が上昇しているため、同じ賃金で買えるものは少なくなる)、それによって失業率を改善させるのです。

もしこの利下げがあらかじめ労働者に察知されている場合、労働者はあらかじめ高めの賃金を要求します。さもなければ、雇用契約を結んだ後、物価だけが上昇して彼らの賃金は実質的に目減りしてしまうからです。

この場合、予想された利下げを行っても、利下げ後にやっと雇い主の利益は当初予想された水準に達するため、彼らに雇用を増やすインセンティブはありません。期待インフレ率を裏切った場合は失業率が下がり、期待インフレ率それ自体が上昇しても失業率が変わらないのはこれが理由です。更に、予想された利下げが行われない場合、雇い主の利益は当初予想よりも低い水準に留まるため、彼らは労働者の首切りを行わねばならなくなります。それを避けるためには、中銀は期待インフレ率が例え間違った理由で上昇したとしても、それに追随せねばならなくなるのです。

というのが「経済学的には正しい」理解になるわけですが、流石にややこしすぎるので上のような説明で代替しました。鳳天さんが指摘されたような齟齬が生じるのが難点なのですが、直感的な分かりやすさを重視したと言うことでお許しください。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 05, 2006 at 11:56 PM

すばやい返答、ありがとうございます。
なるほど、労働者の雇用契約のタイミング(および硬直性)が原因なのですか。つまり、インフレによる利益の上昇を現雇用者が先に食いつぶしてしまうため、新たな雇用は増えないのですね。勉強になります。

次のエントリ、楽しみに待っております。頑張ってください。

Posted by: 鳳天 | March 06, 2006 at 12:52 AM

解除報道の渦中におります。職業上、逃げられません(笑)。今週、解除されても、エントリーの展開、期待しております。落ち着いたらまたコメントします。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | March 07, 2006 at 01:13 AM

鳳天さん、コメントありがとうございます。

期待インフレ率が上昇してしまう場合、労働者がインフレによる利益増を先取りしてしまうため、企業(雇用側)が生産を増やすインセンティブを持たず、よって雇用も増えない、わけですね。これはマクロ経済学では一般的なトリックです(トリックとは言え、このトリックが正当なものであることはあちこちで議論されていたと思いますが・・・多分)。

次のエントリーからはもっと日本の現状の話にシフトしていきます。ただし、差別化のためにも理論的な説明は残すように注意するつもりですが。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 07, 2006 at 07:14 PM

本石町日記さん、コメントありがとうございます。

この微妙に脱力感の漂う状況に飛び込まざるを得ない由、心よりご同情申し上げます。本来こういうネタは10年に一度の大ネタであって、もっと燃えるものがあってしかるべきだと思うのですが、なんでしょうこの空虚感は・・・。

正直、今顧客から「で、日銀はどうするの?」とか聞かれたらと想像するとぞっとしないものがありますね。「シラネーヨ」といいたい気持ちをぐっとこらえて適当なことをしゃべることになるんでしょうが。

色々考えた結果、やはりこのシリーズを終えてからでないと今回の量的緩和の話は出来そうにない(半端なこと書いてもつまらないですし)ので、あきらめて粛々とシリーズの続きを書くことにしました。

とりあえず、今は心の底から量的緩和解除見送りを祈ることにいたします。せめて来月ならまだやりようがありますので。

ところで、日銀が3月解除にこだわる理由ってなんでしょうか?期越え資金を4月頭に吸収して効率よく当預残を削りたいとか、そういう事情があったりするんでしょうか。なにも年度末でなくても、と思ってしまうわけですが。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 08, 2006 at 06:33 PM

馬車馬さん、どうもです。「日銀が3月解除にこだわる理由」は、今回解除された場合に最も検証を要する部分ですね(笑)。少なくとも「期越え資金を4月頭に吸収して効率よく当預残を削りたい」とか、そういうテクニカル上の妥当性は全然見当たらないです。ということは、もしかして「弾み?」、というのを恐れております。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | March 08, 2006 at 09:10 PM

>そういうテクニカル上の妥当性は全然見当たらないです

マジですか・・・orz。とりあえず「解除したい」という強い想念・執念はよーく感じられるんですが、それだけっていうのはちょっと・・・。

マーケットエコノミスト的なネタの振り方としては、小泉首相他が「日銀の決定を尊重」と言い出したので、今月の解除は見送りかなと踏んでいるのですが(裏で握ったかな、と)。日銀って前も似たような盛り上げ方して土壇場で逃げたことがありましたよね(確かその時は日経が断言調で飛ばし記事を書いて大ハズシし、その後誰かが地方に飛ばされたとか飛ばされないとか・・・)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 08, 2006 at 10:01 PM

解除されてしまったとのことですが。。

Posted by: のびい | March 10, 2006 at 05:54 PM

間に・・あ。。

ええ、気にしてませんとも。

Posted by: ひのき | March 10, 2006 at 09:06 PM

のびいさん:

すいません、その件は両日中に・・・。本当はインフレターゲット特集を終えてから書きたかったんですけどね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 13, 2006 at 07:45 AM

ひのきさん:

えっと、これってどういうコメントでしょう。なにか忘れてましたっけ(最近物忘れが激しいもので・・・)。または、行間を読めて無いんでしょうか。

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