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で、日銀は何をやったのか(上)

もう1週間遅れでタイミングを完全に逸しているのだが、日銀の量的緩和解除の話を軽くまとめておきたい。ただし、後で説明するように、量的緩和解除それ自体よりもそれにくっついてきたネタの方が100倍重要なので、量的緩和解除の話は極力短く抑える予定(それに、日銀の量的緩和になんの意味も無いことは既に繰り返してきたのだし)。


結局、量的緩和に意味はあったのか?

量的緩和解除を評価するには、当然のことながら、過去5年間の量的緩和に果たして意味があったのかどうかを整理しなければならない。もし何らかの効果があったのであれば、それを解除したことで逆の効果が起こることを覚悟すべきだし、何の効果も無かったというのであれば、今回の解除は軽やかに無視して終了だ。

これについては、日銀のHPでは3種類の効果が期待できるとされている。まず、短期金利の一層の低下。つーかゼロでしょうが最初から(注1)。2つ目として、ポートフォリオ・リバランス効果。これは「民間銀行が日銀に国債を売り、代わりに現金を入手すると、それを株投資や企業貸出などに振り向けるはずだ」という不思議理論である。なんで銀行が国債を売ったら換わりに株やら社債やらを買うはずなどという考え方が出来るのか、筆者には皆目理解できない(この件はこちらこちらに詳述した)。少なくとも、ポートフォリオマネージメント理論とは決して相容れない考え方であろう。

で、恐らく3点目が肝なのだが、期待に対する効果。量的緩和をすることによって、将来景気が改善されるはずという期待が生まれるかもしれない(≒期待インフレ率の上昇)という考え方である。これについては、結構支持する意見も多かったと記憶している。

ただし、期待に対する効果があると言うのなら、「なぜ量的緩和が将来の物価(≒景気)の上昇期待を生むのか」というメカニズムをちゃんと説明できなければならない。この説明を怠った意見は基本的には無効だ。そんなことが許されるなら、筆者はこの場で「福井総裁がくしゃみをしたら期待インフレ率が上昇する」理論を展開してもいいことになる。筆者の知る限り、この点がおろそかになっている主張は決して少なくないように思われる。

「なぜ量的緩和で期待インフレ率が上昇するか」の説明としてメジャーだったのが「均衡マネーサプライを増やせば期待インフレ率は上昇する」と主張するクルーグマンの論文に基づいたものだったと思う。だが、このクルーグマンの主張を日銀の政策になぞらえるのは単なる誤解に過ぎないことは「インフレ・ターゲット(4):約束だけならサルでもできる」で説明した。

もうひとつメジャーだったのが、「量的緩和を続けている限りは短期金利はゼロのままで、30兆円まで積み上げた当座預金残高を減らすのには数ヶ月(3~6ヶ月)かかる。だから、これによって日銀は当面短期金利を上昇させるつもりは無いんだよ、という意思をマーケットに信じてもらうことが出来る」というもの。つまり、今後しばらくゼロ金利政策を続けることにコミットする(=時間軸効果)ために必要なのが量的緩和だ、という考え方だ。

これは3つの理由からナンセンスである。まず、上の理屈で行けば、量的緩和を解除し終わるまではゼロ金利が続く、というのがこの効果の肝なわけだが、高々数ヶ月足らずの「ゼロ金利継続」の保証が期待インフレ率を上昇させるという保証はどこにもない。というか無理でしょ。

もうひとつ。こちらの方が致命的だ。そもそも、量的緩和解除にある程度時間がかかるのは、あまり急いでマネーマーケットに溢れる資金を吸収してしまうと、一時的に、または一部の銀行で「今必要な資金が足りなくなる」という事態を招く恐れがあるからだ。こうなると各銀行はなりふり構わず資金を取りに来るため、金利が上昇してしまう。だから、日銀は半年くらいかけてゆっくりと今まで貸していたお金が満期を迎えて戻ってくるのを待とうとしている。

逆に言うと、日銀が金利の上昇を恐れなければ、もっと早く資金を吸収することは出来る(ロンバート貸付というセイフティネットもあることだし)。量的緩和解除に時間がかかるというのは、その間日銀がゼロ金利を維持したいと思っていることを前提とした議論な訳だ。今後しばらくゼロ金利が続くことを保証するために、当面日銀がゼロ金利を続けたいと思っていることを仮定している。論理が破綻しているのである。

3つ目。そもそも、「インフレ率がプラスに転じるまでゼロ金利を続ける」という政策は、特に保証が無くても民間は信用するはずだ、ということ。インフレ・ターゲット(2)で書いたとおり、我々が日銀を信用できないのは「約束したその将来時点で、日銀にその約束を果たす動機がない場合」だ。しかし、我々は日銀が「インフレは嫌うが、デフレよりもゼロインフレが望ましい」と思っていることは確信している。ならば、「放っておいても彼らはインフレ率がプラスに転ずるまでは利上げを行わないはずだ」と信じられるのである。つまり、いわゆる時間軸効果を、訳の分からない量的緩和政策で「保証」する必要自体がそもそも無かったのだ。


つまり、量的緩和の効果を主張する意見は(少なくともここに挙げたものは)全て無効であり、量的緩和は直接的にも、(期待への影響を通じて)間接的にも、何ら意味は無かったと結論付けることが出来る。ちなみにスヴェンソン(プリンストン大学教授)も似たようなことを書いている。曰く、「もし民間が将来も金融緩和が続くと信じていたなら、大幅な円安か長期金利の上昇のどちらかが起こっていたはずだ。しかしそのどちらも明らかに発生していない。量的緩和は民間の期待に影響を与えることは出来ず、その点において盛大な失敗(dramatic failure)だった」(5~6ページ)と。

こうして見ると、少なくとも日銀の行ってきた量的緩和には何の効果もなかった、ということは結論づけてしまって良いように思う。筆者がブログ上でこれを主張してから2年近く(ブログ外では5年前から言っていることだが)、これについて説得力のある反論を頂いたことは無い。

そして、当然の結論として、先週の量的緩和解除が日本経済に与える影響もゼロである。だが、それでも考えることはある。今までは「日銀は物価がプラスになるまでは量的緩和を継続する」と信じていればそれで良かった。だが、これからはこういう便利な指標は無い。我々は一から「日銀が何を望み、何を行おうとしているか」を考えなければならない。日銀の立場から言えば、一気に複雑化した我々の勘繰りをどうコントロールするかに気を配らなければならない。その辺りを次回(大体書き終えているのですぐに書く予定です)。


本日のまとめ

量的緩和に効果があるという意見には説得力がない。

もし量的緩和が将来の期待インフレ率を上昇させるとすれば、大幅な円安か長期金利上昇が起こっているはず。どちらも起こっていないことは日銀が期待のコントロールに失敗した証拠。

効果がないことを止めても変化がないのは当然。


注1:中長期金利はゼロではないわけだが、中長期金利は理論上「現在の金利と将来の期待金利の平均値」なので、これを下げるには民間の期待に働きかける必要がある。その意味で、中長期金利のコントロールは3番目の「期待の効果」に含まれる。

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Comments

量的緩和の効果として民間銀行の信用維持と言うのを聞いたことがあります。
民間銀行の貸付先が焦げ付いた場合でも、当座の決済や一般企業の短期資金は保障されると言うものです。詳しく調べたわけではないので間違っていたらすいません。

Posted by: t02s828e | March 18, 2006 at 01:28 PM

量的緩和については僕も色々考えたのですが、結局日銀の手足を手足をがちがちに縛って、日銀の余計な行動や言動で市場を混乱させない効果はあったのではないかと思います。量的緩和を解除してから、市場が日銀の一挙一動に疑心暗鬼になっていますからねえ。w
まあ、これは経済学的な意味というよりは、むしろ無能な組織に与えてしまった独立性を封じるという政治的な意味があったという話ですが。www

Posted by: Baatarism | March 18, 2006 at 06:02 PM

t02s828eさん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが遅れてすみません。一連のエントリーを書いたら力尽きました。

信用維持については、本石町日記さんが「最初はなかったが、日銀が後付で出してきた理屈だ」と指摘されていました。

ちなみに、私はこれもほとんど説得力がないと思っています。100歩譲って、期末の資金を十全に確保するため、というのはありえるかもしれませんが、資金需要の無い普段から、6兆円あれば十分な資金供給を30兆円まで増やす理由は説明のしようがありません。
そもそも、万が一銀行が資金が足りなくなった場合、ロンバート貸付という一種の非常貸出制度が整備されているので、そもそも『多めに資金供給する」必要自体が存在しないのです。

さらに、銀行問題において致命的だったのは不良債権に伴う銀行の自己資本比率の低下にあったわけで、日銀の量的緩和がこれに対してなんら効果を持ちません。

というわけで、その理由についても無効だと言い切ってしまって良いと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 27, 2006 at 11:43 PM

Baatarismさん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが遅れてごめんなさい。

Baatarismさんのコメントを見て、書き忘れていた点を思い出しました。エントリー中の3点目がそれに当たります(更新履歴書くのわすれてました・・・)。

ゼロインフレまでゼロ金利、というのは、そもそも日銀の手足を縛らなくとも信用されたと思います。その後の疑心暗鬼も、量的緩和解除によるものではなく、(下)の冒頭で書いたことが原因だと考えた方が自然なように思えます。

政治的な意味という意味では、分かってない政治家に対して「日銀も仕事をしてるんだよ」という言い訳をする、という効果はあったように思います。というか、私が認められる効果というのはそれ以外にはないという感じですね・・・。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 27, 2006 at 11:59 PM

「もし量的緩和が将来の期待インフレ率を上昇させるとすれば、大幅な円安か長期金利上昇が起こっているはず。どちらも起こっていないことは日銀が期待のコントロールに失敗した証拠」と書いてありますがこれは少し違うのではないでしょうか?
03年ごろ当座預金を30兆まで増やしており、その年に長期金利は1%以下だったのから上昇していますし、為替がそれほど円安にならなかったのもアメリカが金融緩和していたからだと思うんですが。
それに大きな影響が出ないのは買いオペ額が小さいからでもあり、日銀当座が30兆どころではなく、50兆や百兆にでも増やしていればもっと効果は大きかったと思います。
実際、マネーサプライとマネタリーベースのデータを見れば、当座を増やせば伸び率も大きくなっているわけで無効というのは言い過ぎではないでしょうか?
それに万が一日銀がいくら買いオペを増やしても現在のインフレ率も将来のにも全く影響がなく期待インフレ率に影響を与えないというのが本当なら、財政問題が簡単に解決できてしまうので、期待インフレ率を高める効果があろうがなかろうが日銀はもっと買いオペを増やすべきだったはずです。

Posted by: ● | April 02, 2006 at 11:27 PM

●さん、コメントありがとうございます。

前半部についてですが、スヴェンソンが指摘したのは「ベースマネーの伸びから考えて、それが期待にちゃんと影響を与えているのなら50%くらいの円安(ex. 180円/ドル)が起こっていなければおかしい」ということです。アメリカの金利の変化とかは問題にならないような円安が起こっていなければならなかったわけですね(すいません、もっとちゃんと紹介すべきでした)。

それから、●さんの意見の決定的な問題は、「なぜ量的緩和を行えばインフレになるか」という説明が欠けている点にあります。例え日本で起こった円安が量的緩和のせいだという統計的な結果が見つかったと仮定しても、それ自体には何の説得力もありません。もしそれだけで説得力があるなら、私が「日本で円安が起こった時期に私は100万円のボーナスをもらっていた。だから私に1億円のボーナスをくれれば劇的に円安が進むはず。今すぐ私に1億円を!」と主張しても、●さんは賛成しなければならなくなるのです。

希望的観測のみに基づいて統計を解釈しようとすれば、やりようはいくらでもあります。それなりのテクニックを持つ専門家であれば、同じようなデータを使ってまるで別の結論を導くことだって可能です。そんなものには何の価値も無いのです。スヴェンソンの議論に説得力があるのは、彼が「なぜ量的緩和がうまくいかないか」をちゃんと説明した上で「実際に円安は起こってないでしょ?」と言っているからです。

そんなわけで、●さんの「規模が足りなかっただけだ」という主張には私は賛成しません。規模の大小にかかわらず、そういう議論をするには「なぜそうなるか」を説得力のある形で説明できなければならないのです。そして、本文でも書きましたが、私はそういう説得力のある説明を寡聞にして知りません。

*ついでに書きますと、当座預金増でベースマネーが増えることは簡単に説明できますが、マネーサプライについては微妙です。これについては「インフレターゲット(2)」のコメント欄で説明しました。更に、例えマネーサプライを増やせても無意味であることは「同(4)」で説明済みです。そちらも合わせてご参照いただければと思います。

後半部について。厳しい言い方になってしまって申し訳無いのですが、財政赤字云々というのは議論のすり替えに過ぎません。ここでの議論はあくまでも金融政策です。財政赤字の議論をするには、Non Ponzi-Game conditionなりnon Ricardian assumptionなり、すべき議論がたくさんあります。その辺りを全てすっ飛ばして「財政赤字が減らせるのだからやるべき」という議論を、金融政策の論理から突然ジャンプして語るべきではありません(副次的効果として言及するのはありだと思いますが、それはメインの効果があることを証明した後の話です)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 07, 2006 at 08:47 PM

>規模の大小にかかわらず、そういう議論をするには「なぜそうなるか」を説得力のある形で説明できなければならないのです。

確かにそれが望ましいですが、だからといって、効果がないというのは論理的に飛躍しすぎだと思うんですが。
メカニズムがわかるかどうかと効果が歩かないかは別問題ですから。
量的緩和がデフレ対策として効果がでるメカニズムがわからないから効果もないという論法が成り立つなら、
地震のメカニズムがわからなかった時代には地震は起こらなかったという理屈も正しいと認めることになりますが、いくらなんでもそれはおかしいでしょう。
当座預金を積み上げれば、物価が上がるという主張であれ、
日銀総裁がくしゃみをしたら物価が上がるという主張であれ、
まずは現実のデータと整合性があるかどうかを見るべきでしょう。
相関関係すらないのに、因果関係があるということはまずないですから。
調べたデータから論理的に考えて、当座を増やすほど将来インフレになると思う人が増えて、期待インフレ率が上昇すると推測したり、日銀総裁はくしゃみを金融緩和の合図として使っていると推測したりするものなんじゃないでしょうか?
論理展開がいくら正しくても前提が間違っていれば、結論が正しいことにはならないので。
データなんか解釈の仕方でどうにでもなるというのにも限度があります。すべんそんだって一応は為替や金融に関するデータに基づいて論文書いてるはずですよね?そうでなければ、マネタリーベースがどれくらい増えたかと為替変動の関係を判断することなど出来るはずがありませんから。
「ベースマネーの伸びから考えて、それが期待にちゃんと影響を与えているのなら50%くらいの円安(ex. 180円/ドル)が起こっていなければおかしい」というのも量的緩和による期待の効果が小さいということはわかっても無効だとか逆効果だとはいえないと思うんですが。
長期金利が急上昇していることからすると期待インフレに小さいながらも効果はあったんじゃないでしょうか?

>副次的効果として言及するのはありだと思いますが、それはメインの効果があることを証明した後の話です

量的緩和がメインのデフレ脱却にとって逆効果でないなら、経済政策としてはしたほうがいいんじゃないでしょうか?
もし量的緩和でデフレ不況が終わらない場合は、インフレや増税なしで財政再建が出来る事になります。
そうすれば、緊縮財政もせずにすむし、デフレ脱却後の金利上昇による利払いの増加も心配せずにすむので、デフレ対策として財政政策を使いやすくなるはずです。
財政再建にしても日銀がインフレを抑制しすぎればやりにくくなるわけですし、金融政策は物価との関係がメインだとは言っても、経済政策の手段の一つであるということを踏まえれば、それ単独で論じるべきものでもないと思います。

専門的な財政赤字の議論については馬車馬さんのブログで気が向いたときにでも解説していただけるとありがたいです。楽しみにしております。

Posted by: ● | April 08, 2006 at 11:10 AM

●さん、コメントありがとうございます。

お答えする前にいわゆる「量的緩和」の議論をレビューしたいのですが、まず「デフレor不景気という状態があり」、「それに対して金融緩和で対処しようにも金利がゼロになっており」、「じゃぁ財政政策だ、と言っても中立命題の問題があって効果が期待できない」、よって「量的緩和orリフレターゲット」みたいな議論の流れがあるわけです。

以下順不同でお答えしますが、「理論的にどうかは分からなくとも経験的に効果がはっきりしているならやるべき」という経験主義それ自体は「有り」だとは思います(私自身は前回書いたとおりネガティブな立場ではありますが、とりあえず措きます)。ただし、この手の経験主義を採用すると量的緩和の議論の根本が崩壊するのです。上で書いたとおり、ゼロ金利下での景気対策は財政政策で、というのが入門書にも書いてある「お約束」です。しかし、日本では財政赤字が大きいこともあり、「減税しても将来の増税を予想した合理的な消費者は消費を控えるため、景気刺激策として機能しなくなる」という中立命題が成り立つと考えられ、次の策として量的緩和が出てきます。

しかし、この中立命題は現実的にはほとんど成立しないことが確認されています(レーガン時代の大赤字のときですら、アメリカの消費は減らなかったことが実証されています。日本についても、過去中立命題が成立したという実証結果が出たことはほとんど無いはずです)。よって、『メカニズムが分かるかどうかと効果があるか無いかは別問題』という視点からは、「量的緩和はそもそも必要ない」という結論が導かれるのです。

●さんがここで犯した間違い(失礼な物言いで申し訳ありません…)は比較的一般的なものだと思います。議論の最初で「経験的には正しくないが理論的には正しい」仮定(中立命題)を置いておきながら、議論を進めて理論的な説明が行き詰ると経験主義的な説明に依存する、というのは議論のつまみ食いとでも称すべきもので、到底受け入れられません。このinconsistency(≒非科学的態度)が、私がこの手のの"議論"に対してネガティブな理由のひとつです。

私個人は中立命題を仮定しないで財政政策一本、というやりかたで良いんじゃないの、とも思っています。ただそれだと議論にならないので、まず「リフレ派」の仮定する「合理的期待形成」の土俵に載った上でその矛盾を指摘する、というやり方をしているわけです。

更に書きますと、仮に経験的に明らかなのであれば、次の作業は「なぜそうなったのか」というメカニズムの検証であって、「リフレをどう布教するかが問題だ!」みたいな論調は飛躍以外の何物でもありません。こういう方向に議論が迷走してしまったせいで、いわゆる「リフレ」の議論は(少なくとも私の知るネット上では)ここ数年ほとんど進歩が無いのだと思います(海外のworking paperなどでは最近もいくつか論文が出ているようです。私はフォローしていませんが)。あ、進歩がない、というのは私のごく限られた巡回先において、の話であって、「リフレ派」全体に一般化して語るつもりはありません。

『効果が小さいことはわかっても無効だとはいえない』とのご指摘ですが、私に「量的緩和が完全に無効であること」の証明を要求するのはいわゆる悪魔の証明の類では無いでしょうか。理論的に、乃至は実証的に効果があることを証明するのはそれを主張する側の仕事だと思います(で、それが5年経っても出てこないので、本文で「もう効果は無かったと結論してもいいんでは?」と書いたわけです)。

金融政策を単独で論じるべきではないというのは全く同感で、私が2年前から繰り返し主張していることでもあります。その当時は、「デフレはmonetaryな現象だから金融政策単体で対処できる!」という意見の方が主流だったんですよ(Bewaadさんの「余は如何にして・・・」シリーズなどをご覧下さい)。さすがに最近はそういう事を言う人は少なくなったように見えますが。

ただし、財政政策とのコンビネーションを考えるならば、財政政策それ自体もちゃんと考えるべきだと思うのです。この辺りはFTPLという理論が最近流行っているようでして、そのうち紹介しようと思っています。ただ、とりあえずのサーベイ論文が英語で40ページぐらいありまして…。めんどくさいorzということで現状棚上げとなっております。気長にお待ちいただければ幸いです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 09, 2006 at 04:20 AM

>議論の最初で「経験的には正しくないが理論的には正しい」仮定(中立命題)を置いておきながら、

ちょっと誤解されているようなので、説明しておきますが、
他の方はともかく、私は中立命題は持ち出していません。
財政政策の悪影響は現時点というより将来に生じると思いますし、財政政策は短期的に効果があるのは否定していません。
していれば、緊縮財政を肯定し、減税や財政出動のような財政政策が使いやすくなるのがいいことだとは書きません。
「中立命題があるから短期的に財政政策が無効」とは思ってないのに、なぜ金融中心がいいと思うのかというと、
長期的に見れば、累積赤字が膨らむことで増税やクラウディングアウトなどで将来の経済成長が阻害されるような悪影響が生じやすいからです。
買い切りオペをふやせば、市中に出回る国債は減るし、日銀の収入は国庫に入って財政赤字も減るので、
デフレ脱却後大量の国債が民間投資を圧迫したり、増税で可処分所得を減らされる可能性が小さくなります。
だから、財政出動を増やさず、買いきりオペを増やすだけでデフレ不況が終わるならそれに越したことはないと思うわけです。
もちろん「クラウディングアウトが現実に起こることはない」とか「増税は経済に悪影響がない」とか「累積赤字の額と増税やクラウディングアウトの起こりやすさは関係ない」というのが経験的に証明されているなら、私の間違いですが。
合理的期待形成を仮定したリフレの議論は矛盾があるとか経験的に明らかならばメカニズムの検証も必要だというのはそのとおりだと思います。
量的緩和が完全に無効だと証明するのは悪魔の証明というのもそのとおりですが、
日銀が売りオペや利上げをしてるわけでもないのに、長期金利が上昇したのは期待インフレ率が上昇してたからじゃないかと思って聞いてみました。
当座を急拡大した2003年ぐらいに0.数%から1.数%に長期金利が急上昇しているので、これが他の要因によるものであって、日銀の政策とは関係ないということであれば、確かに期待インフレに関する効果はなかったんだと思います。
そのときは為替介入を不胎化していなかったので、デフレ対策として効果が出やすかったのかもしれません。
バーナンキの背理法的にいうと、日銀から借りた円で外貨をドンドン買ってもインフレにならないなら、世界中の資産を買い占め可能ということになりますから。

Posted by: ● | April 15, 2006 at 01:47 PM

●さん、コメントありがとうございます。

なるほど、中立命題を仮定されていたわけではなかったのですね。これは私の勘違いでした。量的緩和=中立命題という強固な固定観念がありましたもので、その前提を疑いもせずに議論を進めてしまいました。すみません。

「金融中心がいい」とおっしゃる訳をもう少し伺いたいのですが、中立命題がないなら現時点では累積赤字は問題になりませんよね。当然、将来のどこかの時点で増税をせねばなりませんが、それを好景気(≒設備投資が過熱しているとき)に行うことにはそれほど問題がないのではないでしょうか。クラウディングアウトについても、そもそも流動性の罠に陥っている状況では公共投資を増やしても(ISカーブが右にシフトしても)金利は上昇しないように思います。また、将来国債の残高が積み上がっていても、設備投資はその時の民間貯蓄(ストックではなく、フローでの、です)から資金を調達するわけですから、今の財政拡大が将来の設備投資に影響することはないように思えます。

* ただし、公共投資になんらかの構造的な慣性が働いており、一度増やすと好景気になっても減らせない、ということを仮定する場合は話が変わってきます。この場合は現在の公共投資拡大が将来のクラウディングアウトを引き起こします。

** 私はクラウディングアウトの存在を特に否定しません。実証分析で設備投資の金利に対する感応度がほとんど検出されないということは良く聞きますし、私自身も色々試して「どうやっても関係性の検出は無理」と思いました。私自身は計量分析は詳しくないので、あまり当てにはなりませんが。ただし、中立命題と同じく、理論的には正しい考え方を統計だけから完全否定してもしょうがないのではないかと私は思っています。それぞれの議論でconsistentな仮定がされていれば、例え現実味のない議論になってしまったとしても、それは指針として重要な意味を持つと思います。

国債の買いきりオペを増やしてもインフレが起こらないならタダで財政赤字が減る、というのは全くその通りだと思います。ただし、意地の悪い言い方をしますと、これは日銀が「国債を買い切る」ことにコミットできた場合の話です。今国債を買い切っても、満期時にロールオーバー(償還額で買い換え)するという保証はないわけで。法律でロールオーバーを義務付けたとしても、その分新規買い切り額を減らされたら同じことです。これは●さんに向けた反論ではないのですが、合理的期待形成を仮定するならこの事もちゃんと考慮に入れるべきだと思いますね。

結局、インフレターゲット特集で書いたように、日銀がインフレ嫌いである限り、この手の政策はほとんど無効になるのではないかと思います。

中立命題を仮定しないのであれば、特に財政赤字残高は気にする必要がないように思いますので、国債買い切り政策の意義を私は見出しえないわけです。

2003年に長期金利が上昇したのっていわゆるVaRショックですよね。さすがにコメント欄では説明しきれないので、Googleで「VaRショック 金利」を検索し、本石町日記さんとisologueさんのエントリーをご覧ください。

不胎化、非不胎化の議論はベースマネーがジャブジャブになっている状況下では無意味な議論だと思います。換言すれば、すべての円売り介入は自動的に非不胎化されています。「札割れのお話(1) 」でも書いたのですが、数年前に日銀が円売り介入の直後に資金吸収オペを行ったのを見て、鬼の首を取ったように「これでは非不胎化介入にならない!」という非難が巻き起こったことがありました。これはベースマネーがすでにジャブジャブであるということを忘れた議論であると同時に、マネーマーケットのメカニズムについての無知からくる完全な誤解です。

金利にせよ、為替にせよ、マーケットのミクロな動きを熟知せずにあれこれ解釈してしまうと思わぬ陥穽にはまります。日経新聞のマーケット関連コメントなどはほとんど当てにならないと思ってください。彼らは何も分かっていませんから(私だって分かっていませんけど)。

不胎化云々にかかわらず、日銀が外貨をどんどん買えば必ずインフレになります。円安になりますから、貿易黒字は増えてある意味財政拡大と似た効果が生まれます。次回のインフレターゲット特集でこれについて触れるつもりですが、為替介入は効果があると思います。ただし、アメリカとの摩擦を覚悟せねばなりませんが。

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