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で、日銀は何をやったのか(下)

とりあえず量的緩和解除はどうでもよいとして、しかしそれでも先週末からの日銀の様々なアナウンスは重要な意味を持つ。なぜなら、我々は初めて「完全なフリーハンドを得た日銀」と対峙することになったからだ(この本石町日記氏の指摘はとても鋭いと思う。眼から鱗どころかまぶたが落ちそうなくらいに)。つまり、我々は日銀がこれから何を狙って、どのように行動するのか、一から考えなければならない。「一から考える」というのは、

1. 日銀は何を望んでいるか(政策目標)
2. 日銀は現状をどう認識しているか
3. 目標と現状のギャップを埋めるために、どんな政策が取られるか(政策手段)
4. 我々民間はそれに対してどう対処すべきか
5. この民間のリアクションが日銀の行動にどんな影響を及ぼすか

を考える、ということだ。当然、同じ事を日銀自身も考えなければならない。我々が上のプロセスで勘違いをすれば、5.で結局金融政策の効果にネガティブな影響を及ぼす。だから日銀は、上のプロセスで我々が正しく予想できるように便宜を図らなければならないわけだ。以下、ひとつひとつ考えて見たい。


1. 中長期的な物価安定の理解って?

まず、日銀が何を望んでいるのかについて。今まで我々はこれについてなんの情報も与えられていなかった。「当面はゼロ金利」の約束のおかげで、上の3.にジャンプすることが出来たので、考える必要が無かったということもあるが。

幸い、日銀は量的緩和解除と同時に最低限の手がかりを公表している。それが例の「中長期的な物価安定の理解」というやつである。分かりづらいということでえらく不評なのだが、インフレターゲットの文脈からは比較的分かりやすい。「インフレ・ターゲット(2):中央銀行を信じるということ」と「同(3):デフレに使える政策、使えない政策」の前半部を参照していただきたいのだが、この理論では、「日銀は社会的に望ましいインフレ率と社会的に望ましい失業率の2つの政策目標を達成するために行動する」ということがまず仮定されている。そして、ある状況下では「望ましいインフレ率」よりも「望ましい失業率」の達成が優先されてしまい、それを予想した民間人が期待インフレ率を引き上げるため、「無駄にインフレ率が高い」状態が生まれる。これを防ぐために、「我々はこのインフレ率を達成するために最善を尽くしますよ」と宣言するのがインフレターゲットである。

日銀の言う「物価安定の理解」というのは、上で言う「社会的に望ましいインフレ率」のことだろう。厳密には、これはインフレターゲットとは別のものだ。民間が「日銀は望ましいインフレ率の達成を放棄したんじゃね?」という疑念に駆られているときに、いやいや我々は本気ですよ、保証しますよと言って出すのがインフレターゲットだ。保証する気はない、と日銀自身が宣言している以上、これをインフレターゲットとしては解釈できない。

…と、以上が理論的な話=建前である。日銀がこの「理解」をインフレターゲットではない、と主張する根拠もここにある。この限りにおいて、日銀は間違っていない。しかし、だ。この建前は世界中の多くの中央銀行では有効なのだが、日銀には残念ながら適用できない。

インフレターゲットは「日銀が望ましいインフレ率の達成を諦めている」と民間が信じている、又は疑っているときに必要になる。では、今の日銀が「インフレを許容してでも失業率低下を優先する」などと思っている人がいるだろうか?まずいないだろう。彼らは明らかにインフレ率を下げるためならば失業率が悪化しても気にしない「インフレ馬鹿」であるのだから。

インフレ馬鹿とは「望ましい失業率の達成は無視してただひたすらに(自らの信じる)望ましいインフレ率の達成に邁進する」存在である以上、彼らの設定した望ましいインフレ率の達成を信じない理由はない。つまり、他の国はさておき、日銀については、望ましいインフレ率はそのままインフレターゲットに等しくなるのだ。日銀が「これはインフレターゲットではない」といくら強弁してもイマイチ説得力に欠ける理由(のひとつ)はここにある。


2.日銀の「理解」と景気判断

つまり、今回日銀の公表した「物価安定の理解」というのはそのまま素直に「日銀はこの数字を達成すべく行動するだろう」と考えてよいことになる。つまり、もし日銀が「近いうちにインフレ率が2%を超えるな」と予想したら金融引き締め(利上げ)に入り、逆に0%を下回りそうなら利下げをする、ということになる(注1)。

こうなると、金融政策を読む上で次に重要になるのが「今、日銀はインフレ率が(近い将来に)どのくらいになると考えているのか?」を探ることになる。とりあえず、今現在の物価は1月で前年同月比0.5%。まぁまだ利上げとかが出てくる状況じゃないよね、と言いたいところなのだがそうでもない。通常、金融政策に効果が現れるには半年から9ヶ月程度のタイムラグがあるといわれている。つまり、日銀は今のインフレ率だけでなく、今後1年程度のインフレ率を予想した上で、利上げすべきかどうかを決めねばならないのだ。当然、我々も「日銀の予想」を予想しなければならない

その辺りは「景気に先行して動く統計」が色々あったりして、マーケットエコノミストの腕の見せ所というやつなのだが、ここでは措く(きりがないので)。むしろ、統計以外で今後もめそうなネタがひとつある。直近の水野審議委員の記者会見でも出た話だが、資産価格(株価や地価)の変化をどう考えるかということだ。

普通、株価や地価とインフレ率には正の関係があることが知られている。大雑把には、株価上昇→企業が資金調達しやすくなる→設備投資増加、とか、地価上昇→担保価値上昇→銀行から金が借りやすくなる→設備投資増加、といったプロセスで資産価格の上昇は景気を、ひいてはインフレ率を刺激する。だから、物価の番人たる日銀が資産価格の変化を気にするのは当然の話だ。しかも他の統計と違ってリアルタイムで観察できるし、民間の景気見通しという見えない情報が株価には織り込まれている。こんな貴重な情報源は他にない。

だが、一方で問題なのは、地価はともかく株価の値動きは激しすぎるということ。極端な話、日経225が2万円になったので慌てて利上げしたとする。しかし、もし次の週に1万4000円まで下がっちゃいました、となった場合、日銀が懸念した前述の「株価上昇による設備投資増」のメカニズムは不発に終わるわけで、日銀は余計な利上げで景気に冷や水を浴びせた、と非難を受けることになる。資産価格というのは見極めが難しすぎるのだ(だからこそ世の中のトレーダーは株価の変動に日々一喜一憂しているわけで)。

このあたりについて日銀がどういうスタンスを取るかはまだ決まっていないようだ(学問の世界でもまだ揉めているらしい)。だが、水野審議委員のコメントから見ても、日銀が資産価格上昇に将来のインフレの影を見ていることは間違いない。その辺り、日銀の「インフレ率予想の癖」を見極めることが、当面のBOJウォッチャー最大の課題ということになる。


3. 日銀の政策手段

幸いなことに、訳の分からん量的緩和政策とやらが消えたおかげで、予想される政策手段はだいぶシンプルになった。インフレ率が2%を超えて高まると予想されれば利上げ。以上。

ただし、ここで景気が腰折れて再度デフレに突入すると、日銀はかなり苦しい。量的緩和解除が景気に悪影響を及ぼす可能性が無いことは前回説明したが、それはそれとして景気が悪化する可能性はゼロではない。まぁ、とりあえずはまた「量的緩和」を再開することになるのだろうが、それがあらゆる意味で無意味な以上、特にそれについて予想を組む必要もないように思う。

4.と5.についてはここでは省略する。なぜなら、4.と5.、そこから3.へのフィードバックはインフレターゲットの議論そのものだからだ。これらについては「インフレ・ターゲット(2)-(3)」で書いたし、「同(6)」でもう少し説明する予定。


で、日銀は何をやったのか

最後に改めて纏めておこう。日銀の「量的緩和政策」には何の意味も無かった。よってその解除も何の悪影響ももたらさない。敢えて言えば、これによって「将来の日銀の金融政策」に対する予想が変化した可能性はある(例えば、これで利上げ時期が早まった、と予想したアナリストは多分いるだろう)。だが、日銀は最初から「インフレ率が数ヶ月プラスになったら解除」と言っていたわけで、約束をそのまま実行したに過ぎない(注2)。そう考えれば今回の解除は(数ヶ月前からの執拗な地ならしの効果もあって)ノーサプライズであり、これで将来の金融政策についての予想が変わったとは思えない。むしろ、「日銀はインフレ率をかなり低めに抑えることしか考えていないインフレ馬鹿である」という従来からのイメージが改めて補強された、と考えるべきだろう。

福井総裁が豆腐の角に頭をぶつけて唐突に宗旨替えでもしない限り、日銀は2008年まではインフレ馬鹿で決定だ。それを前提に金利予想を立てればよい。失業率(≒景気)との兼ね合いを考えなくてよい分、実は我々にとって日銀の行動は読みやすいのだ。

問題なのは日銀のインフレ予想(上の議論の2.の部分)の精度が低いことと、目標となっているインフレ率が低すぎて一歩間違うとまたデフレに陥るリスクがあること。加えて、審議委員に「糊代論」みたいな阿呆な非論理的なことを言い出す輩が少なくないのもリスクファクターだ。上で書いた議論はあくまでも理屈の話であって、日銀自身が非論理的であるというのは想定の範囲外なのである。トレーダーの皆様におかれましては、この辺りの(非論理的)リスクファクターに自らの運と勘を賭けて頂きたい。


本日のまとめ

インフレ馬鹿たる日銀限定で、「中長期的な物価の理解」はインフレターゲットと同じものと解釈して差し支えない。

この「理解」と、近い将来のインフレ率についての日銀予想とのギャップから利上げ、利下げが決まる。日銀のインフレ予想をどう読むかがカギ。ただし、彼ら自身も確立された方法論を持っておらず、たまに結論ありきで訳の分からない予想をすることがある。

今回の量的緩和解除で、「今後の日銀の政策」に対する予想が変化したとは思われない。今も昔も、日銀は景気動向に比べてインフレ動向を極端に重視するインフレ馬鹿である(これは筆者の仮定で、議論の余地はあるだろうが)。


注1:世界的な常識から言えば、この目標レンジは低すぎる。バーナンキとミシュキンは、
(1) 統計としてのインフレ率は高めに出る傾向がある
(2) 名目賃金に下方硬直性が存在(要するに、賃金を下げると労働組合が騒いでうるさいが、物価上昇によって実質的に賃金が低下した場合は労組は騒がない。つまり、若干のインフレがあると企業は賃金調整がやりやすくなる→失業率低下、ということ)
(3) あまり目標を低く置くと、ちょっとした政策ミスでデフレに陥る恐れが高まる
という3つの理由から、ターゲットはあまり低くしない方がいい(間接的には、上限4%程度を肯定)、と書いている。筆者としても、3%くらいまで許容してもいいじゃんと思うのだが、数字に根拠を持たせようとすると膨大な統計と格闘せねばならなくなるので、ここではあまり強く主張しない。

注2:途中でビハインドザカーブとか言う寝言(今となってはそう解釈するしか…)が出てきたので話がややこしくなったのだが。だから寝言は自宅の寝室でやれと。紛らわしい寝言は勘弁願いたい(しかも、市場が信じたくてしょうがなくなる類の寝言は)。前にも書いたが、この国には寝ながら記者会見をこなす器用な人が多すぎる。

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Comments

引用有難うございます。本エントリーの上下、まったくもって納得の内容であります。日銀の物価観は今度の展望リポート(4月下旬)で示される予定です。感触では1%前後が見込まれますが、果たしてどのような政策経路がイメージされるのか。うまく情報発信しないとメジャードペースの利上げが織り込まれそうな悪寒です。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | March 20, 2006 at 05:25 PM

福井総裁は「量的緩和復帰は有り得ない」と明言されてるそうなので、彼らが言う「糊代」を稼ぐ前に景気が減速してしまうと、日銀はまたゼロ金利政策以外の新機軸を考え出さないといけなさそうですね。

政府側の名目(or実質)GDP成長率ターゲット論とかも入り混じって日本の金融政策はさらにごちゃごちゃしそうですが、はてさてどうなることやら。

Posted by: 名無之直人 | March 22, 2006 at 11:19 AM

日銀は国債の利払いが膨れ上がって、「円」の信用が破綻することを恐怖して、極端に低いターゲットを設定してるって事は無いんでしょうかね??

Posted by: どしろうと | March 24, 2006 at 12:24 AM

本石町日記さん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが遅れてすみません。やはり週刊ペースはしんどく、1週間は燃え尽きてコメント欄に手をつける気が起こりませんでした・・・(コメント欄が荒れないことだけを祈ってました)。

展望リポートは企画局の意向が反映されるんでしょうか。それとも総裁の「景気イメージ」がトップダウンで反映されるのか・・・。正直、あまりボトムアップで調査統計局(の生データとにらめっこしてる人たち)の声が反映されそうな気がしないのですが、どんなものなんでしょうね。そういう辺りも含め、何をどこまでシグナルとして解すべきなのか、もう少し整理して欲しいところです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 28, 2006 at 12:38 AM

名無之直人さん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが遅れてすみません。

まぁ、量的緩和には効果がないと日銀も自覚しているなら、「もうやらない」というのも構わないのですが、それならそれをちゃんと言及すべきだと思いますね。自説を変更するのは構わないのですが、それはちゃんと宣言してもらわないと周りが混乱するばかりです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 28, 2006 at 12:42 AM

どしろうとさん、コメントありがとうございます。

インフレ率が上がれば当然金利も上昇しますが、同時に税収も増加します(景気が良くなっていますから)。また、インフレには借金棒引きの効果がありますので(物価が今の100倍になれば、600兆円の価値は100分の1になるわけです。その分、国債を保有している人の資産も目減りしますが。これによって預金者から政府etcへの資金の移動が起こります。これをインフレ税と呼びます)、これによっても財政赤字は減少します。

というわけで、インフレ率を上げると財政破綻、というお話は基本的に誤解です。マスコミレベルだと盛大に勘違いされてるんですけどね・・・orz。困ったものです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 28, 2006 at 12:49 AM

馬車馬さん、どうもです。展望リポートについては、経済・物価情勢のメーンシナリオの構成は調査統計局が主に担い、先々のリスク評価については企画サイドの意向が反映されるのではないかと見ています。概ね骨子が固まったところで、総裁以下政策委員会メンバーが内容を承認(多少の修正はあるかも)する運びでしょうか。なお、企画サイドの意向に関しては、理事・局長(雨宮氏が新局長に就任です)の判断でしょう。ご参考まで。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | April 06, 2006 at 12:43 AM

本石町日記さん、ありがとうございます。

なるほど、となると、肝心なところは企画局が握るイメージになりそうですね。いくら調査統計局が硬軟2種のシナリオを組んでも、前みたいに「メインシナリオが成立すると仮定すると金利上昇もやむなし」みたいなノリで書かれてしまえばパーになってしまうわけですし。雨宮氏次第、ということでしょうか。最近はどういうスタンスなんでしょうかね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 07, 2006 at 10:32 PM

局長就任後はまだ会っておりません。景況観・金利観はともかくとして、量的緩和については独特のスタンスで、それはそれで筋論ではあるなあ、と受け止めています。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | April 08, 2006 at 01:21 AM

なるほど。個人的には「経済学的にどうたら」というのもいいのですが(もちろん必要な要素でもあります)、なによりもconsistentであることを期待しています。景況感は・・・下から上がってきたレポートを虚心坦懐に見つめる節度があるかどうかでしょうか。2001年の利上げのときもそれで失敗しているわけですし。トレーダーでもそうですが、希望的観測って本人が思っているよりも遥かに人の目を曇らせると思うんですよね。

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