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日韓の外交演習

本当はヨーロッパの労働問題+選挙ネタを書こうと思っていたのだが、どうにも時間が取れないので時事ネタを少し。本来、日韓の話は「大丈夫か韓国」シリーズと「靖国カードが消える日」で大体書き終わっているので、今回の話はスルーするつもりだった。思うところは色々あったのだが、基本的な考え方は前述のエントリーと同じなので。

ただ、もう1ヶ月以上ブログを放置していることもあるし、ここは若干薄い内容でも書いてしまわないと「サボり癖」がついてしまいそうだ。なお、今後しばらくブログにあまり時間を割けなくなりそうで、今回のような短文がこれから増えるかもしれない。その場合、目次を別にするなり、今回のようなエントリーは目次には載せないなり、なんらかの対策を考える予定。


ほぼ完璧だった日本の外交

とりあえず、多くの人が感じているとおり、今回の日本の外交戦略はほとんどケチの付け所がない。「6月に韓国がIHOに海図の韓国名を登録するのを阻止」という外交目標が最後まで一貫されていたし、交渉を始める前に調査船を現場で遊弋させておいたのもかなりエレガントな「威力外交」だった(20隻のガンボートに対して丸腰の調査船2隻、を威力外交と呼ぶかどうかは異論もあろうが)。

加えて、韓国の対応があまりにも粗雑だったのも明らかだろう。拿捕って。これは「靖国カードが消える日」でも書いたが、使用に当たってのコストが大きい外交カードである。明確な国際法違反なのだから。それに比べ、この「拿捕カード」を切って得られるものは最大で海の底の地名に過ぎない(もちろん、それだって怪しい)。だから、日本はこの脅しをブラフとして無視できるわけだ。

で、案の定韓国はこの外交カードを引っ込め、交渉は妥結。表層的にはそれだけの話である。だが、筆者は今回の件はもう一段深いところで日本にとって意義ある交渉だったと思っている。以下、もう少しひねって考えてみたい。


韓国は本当に「合理的」なのか?

上の議論で、筆者は韓国の「拿捕」カードは利益よりもコストのほうが大きいからブラフである、と断定した。だが、これは後出しジャンケン的な議論である。「コストのほうが大きいはず」というのは我々日本人の価値観からの推測に過ぎず、韓国がまるで異なる価値観から「いや、コストよりも利益のほうが大きい!」と“合理的に”考える可能性は否定できないからだ(実際、Bewaad氏がそのような危惧をされていた)。

この場合、日本は韓国の対応を読み違え、調査船は最悪の場合韓国に拿捕されてしまうことになる。もちろん韓国はその結果かなり追い込まれることになるが、日本の側も人質を取られることになるわけで、被害はかなり大きい。前にも書いたが、日本にとって最終的に重要なのは我々の国益だけであって、韓国にどれだけの被害が出たかは我々には関係ない。韓国が国際的に追い詰められたところで我々にとって大した利益になるわけでなし、そのために我々の側に人的被害が出てしまっては、採算はマイナスなのだ。

この手の、「価値観が根本的に異なる相手」との交渉は困難を極めるのが普通だ。少し前のNHKスペシャル「北朝鮮」でも、アメリカが北朝鮮の瀬戸際外交に対して譲歩するシーンが描かれていたが、こちらの用意した落とし所をことごとく無視され、結局相手の要求を呑まざるを得なくなってしまう。我々だって、向こうがイっちゃった目で「拿捕した測量船乗組員を死刑に処す」と言ってきたら、譲歩せざるを得まい。

だからこそ、まず我々は、韓国の価値観が日本のそれにどれだけ近いかを測らなければならない。今回の外交交渉の「裏の意義」はそこにあったと思う。実際、韓国の潘基文外相は『独島問題が韓日関係よりも優先されるというのが政府の基本認識』などという眩暈のするようなコメントを残している(というか、この人が国連事務総長候補だということが更なる眩暈を誘うのだが)。これが本気なら、韓国の価値観は日本のそれと決定的に違うことを前提に外交戦略を一から練り直さねばならない。ある意味、福沢諭吉の脱亜論再び、という状況になったのではないだろうか。


図式的な交渉の経緯

そのあたりを考えるために、今回の外交戦略を簡単に図式化してみよう。

韓国: IHO登録の動き        → 交渉:合意

日本:調査船を周辺海域へ     → 交渉:合意

韓国:ガンボート配備        → 交渉:合意  (←今回はココ)

日本:調査船派遣          → 交渉:合意

韓国:調査船拿捕(実力行使)   → 交渉:合意

日本:国際問題化(国連への提訴等)→ 交渉:合意

韓国:?





戦争               → 交渉:講和

*分かりづらいかもしれないが、韓国のIHO登録を頂点に、交渉で合意すれば右へ進んで終了、交渉しないか合意しなければ下に進んで次のアクションが発生、というツリー構造になっている。最終的には戦争後に必ず講和するので、すべての枝は合意して終了する。

日本は韓国のIHO登録の動きを察知した時点で交渉に入ってもよかったのだが、それをせずに調査船を派遣し、韓国もそれに対してまずガンボートを配備した。昔の日本であれば調査船を派遣せずに韓国と交渉に入っていたはずであり、その意味で今回の戦略変更はポイントが高い。これに対して当初韓国は「調査計画を撤回するなら外務次官を受け入れる」と言っていたが、日本の戦略変更に全く対応できていなかったことがこのコメントで分かる。

その後韓国も交渉を受け入れたわけだが、そこで問題になるのが「今合意するか、もっと事態が進行してから合意するか」である。我々は永久に争い続けることは出来ないから、将来のどこかで必ず合意に至る(最悪の場合、戦争の後に)。で、韓国は、一番有利な条件で合意できるポイントを探すことになるわけだ。今合意しなければ日本は調査船を派遣し、我々は実力行使に訴える。その後日本がこの問題を世界中に触れ回った後でなければ、日本は再交渉に応じないであろうことはすぐに分かる。その時点で合意するのと、今合意するのとどちらが有利か?それとも、そこでも交渉せずに更に事態をエスカレートさせるべきか?

ここでのポイントは2つ。まず、韓国が「ここで合意しなければ日本は更に事態をエスカレートさせる覚悟がある」と信じるか否か。もし「どうせ日本は強攻策には出られない」と考えるなら、ここで合意せず、日本の調査船が引き返した後で再交渉したほうが有利だ(上の図で行くと、一番上に逆戻りした状態)。もうひとつは、「実力行使をして国際問題化した後に交渉するよりも、今合意したほうが有利だ」と考えるか否か。我々にとっては自明だが、その感覚を韓国が共有しているかどうかが問題だったわけだ。

結局日韓はこの時点での合意を選んだわけで、これは日本外交にとってまぎれもなく成功だった。まず、韓国に対して「ここで交渉がまとまらなければ更に事態を悪化させるよ」という脅しを信じさせたということがひとつ(もちろん、国際法で武装した調査船派遣という小ネタが効いている)。一方で、無茶な脅しは日本には効かないよ、ということを認識させたという点が二つ目。最後に、ぶつくさ訳の分からないことを言っても、韓国は(兄弟国北朝鮮とは違い)最終的には似たような価値観で合理的な選択をするのだということを確認できたこと(つまり、拿捕という脅しが彼らの価値観でも実行不可能なものであったことを確認できたということでもある)。

その意味で、今回の交渉は今後の日韓外交にとって非常に重要な一里塚になったのではないだろうか。出来れば、中台関係や北朝鮮問題が致命的に不安定化する前に、後2~3回くらいはこういう小競り合いをやっておくべきだと思う。韓国は「強気に出てくる日本」を今まで知らなかったわけだし、日本は「強気な日本に直面した韓国」を知らない。ぎりぎりの交渉からしか学べないものは確かにあるし、今なら最悪アメリカや中国にお出まし願うという「保険」もあるのだから(保険料が高そうだが)。


蛇足:反日の問題

こういう話になると「韓国民の反日感情が問題」みたいな論調をよく見るのだが、筆者は全く賛同しない。戦争に負けて占領されて挙句併合までされてしまえば(←あくまでも韓国人の歴史観の話)、その国に対して悪感情を持つのは当たり前の話だ。しかもまだ100年も経っていない。数百年前の負け戦に文句を言う人だって世界中にはごまんといるのに。

別に韓国に反日感情が渦巻いていようと、何らかの共通の利害関係を確立でき、かつ相手の価値観がかけ離れていなければ、協力関係を構築することは出来る(軍事同盟は無理だという話はこちらで書いたが)。要は、両国のトップクラスに冷静な判断力(と国内統治能力)があればよいのだ。今回の合意は、大統領は滅茶苦茶でも、韓国のトップクラスは平均的にはぎりぎり冷静であるということを確認できたという点で、今後の協力関係に希望を残したといえると思う。


本日のまとめ

外交交渉において難しい点は、相手の価値観を読み違えると互いに大損をこくような失敗が起こるということ。その意味で、韓国の価値観が我々の読みに近いかどうかは確認しておくべき問題。

韓国の「調査船拿捕」という脅しが無効であるということを日韓双方が認識したことは大きい。

この手の「本気の外交演習」をもう少し繰り返し、互いに「新しい外交ルール」に慣れていく必要がある。


追記:この件については、「セカンドカップ・はてな店」(4月19日から23日)と「カワセミの世界情勢ブログ」が面白いと思いました。まぁ、皆さんご存知だとは思いますが。

追記2:リンクをたどってこんなページを発見。よくぞここまで。日本の歴史研究の裾野の広さを思い知ると共に、これだけの原資料がネットで公開されているということにただ感心。というか、何ですかこのデジャブーは。明治維新直後の日本も当時の朝鮮と外交的小競り合いを我慢強く続けて、次第に朝鮮に対する理解と失望とを深めていったという過程が、豊富な外交文書の引用で描かれています。必見。ただし暇なときに。

履歴:日韓は(恐らく秀吉の出兵以来)戦争をしていない、というご指摘をいただいて文章を一部修正。詳細はコメント欄を参照。(2006年5月2日7時20分)
追記2を追加。(2006年5月9日8時20分)

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Comments

お疲れ様です。
私としては、こんな時期に戦争でもやる気かな?とかワクワクしながら(でも実際の事情は知らずに)見ていたわけですが。

「6月に韓国がIHOに海図の韓国名を登録するのを阻止」という外交目標を、とても日本とは思えない外交手腕で達成したことは、日本の今後にとって大変に有益なことであったと喜ぶしだいですが、さて、次の問題としては「裏切り」という手法を韓国がとるかどうか、ですね。つまり、日本との合意にかかわらず、6月にIHOに韓国名を登録する、という手法です。

冷静に考えればとるわけはないのですが(メリットに比べてデメリットが大きすぎる)、もし韓国側がこの手法を使った場合、日本側としては当然測量船を竹島近海に放り込むことになります。ですが、日本にそれができますかね?(これを韓国がやってくる場合は事前に日本国内の第五列がなにやら宣伝活動をしているでしょうし。)
今回やろうとしたのだから(ブラフかもしれませんが)、できるはずだと信じたいのですが・・・

Posted by: 鳳天 | April 23, 2006 at 11:46 PM

初めまして。いつも興味深く拝見しております。
さて、以下の文は筆が滑ったのでしょうか?

>戦争に負けて占領されて挙句併合までされてしまえば、

韓国は日本に併合されましたが、日本と戦争したことはありませんし、故に負けたこともありません。
日清・日露の両戦争で戦場にはなりましたが、当時の朝鮮及び大韓帝国と戦争状態にあったわけではありません。
単純ミスであれば訂正された方がよいでしょうし、もし違う意味があったのであれば、当方のように誤解を招かないためにも、より詳しい説明をお書きになった方がよいでしょう。

Posted by: tasaeda | April 24, 2006 at 12:32 AM

戦争に負けて併合されたわけではないところが、また「恨」が深くなる原因というか…

Posted by: cru | April 24, 2006 at 12:47 AM

日本側が、退席する韓国側を地下駐車場で呼び止めて、最後の交渉と報道されてるようですが、それが事実だとすると、日本からのなんらかの譲歩があったはずで、それが「韓国側が将来的にIHO登録する」事を否定しないということであれば、韓国側は「面目が立つ」と考えたはずで。そうなると、全然、相手側が「目がいっちゃってる」連中であることを否定できないわけで…。

Posted by: cru | April 24, 2006 at 12:54 AM

いつもは似た意見であるけれども、今回は読み違えだろう。
韓国は狂っているし、今回の騒動は、選挙対策の一つだ。
二重瞼の手術をしたノムヒョンの性質を読み間違えていると思う。
日本が、現在のような韓国の政権がさらに続くことを望まないなら、強硬に測量をすべきだったろう。
米国が、非公式に介入したそうだが、だとしたら米国も間違っている。
測量をして、韓国が拿捕をした後に介入した方が良かった。

Posted by: 嫌韓派 | April 24, 2006 at 01:15 AM

国と国との外交として何が得か、ということ以外に、嫌韓派さんが指摘されているような、国内むけのパフォーマンスという要素は相当にあろうかと思います。今回の交渉でも韓国側が強硬姿勢を通したのはノムヒョン自身の指示らしいですね。ノムヒョン自身がもともと反日的というよりも日本に対して強硬姿勢を通すと支持が上がるということだと思います。要するにイランのアハマディネジャドと同じ。
私自身は馬車馬さんと同じく今回の交渉は成功と思っていますが、日本でももっと強硬な態度をとれば良かったと煽り立てる人間が多くいる位です。韓国ならその比ではないことでしょう。

ちなみに強硬派の方は測量してだ捕させて国際問題にし、日本が国際司法裁判所に提訴するなりして取り返せばよいという意見があり、それはそうすれば日本有利らしいですが、それをやるとなると尖閣諸島も決着つけようという話になり、そうなるとこれは中国が有利とのことで(あちらは常任理事国ですから裁判官の顔ぶれなどの問題で)日本にとっては美味しい話ではないようです。

新華社は今回の決着は日本の勝ちと報道しているようですが、
韓国を煽って問題を大きくしようとする嫌な意図を感じますね。

Posted by: のびい | April 24, 2006 at 04:00 AM

tasaedaさまの仰るとおりで日清日露ともに朝鮮は戦争に参加していません。というかそもそも清やロシアの不当な要求や侵略に断固とした対処ができないのが朝鮮のダメところ(事大主義)です。
同じく列強に隣接したポーランドやベルギーが侵略され国土を失おうとも、独立への気概を決して失わなかったことを考えないといけません。

Posted by: SLEEP | April 24, 2006 at 12:48 PM

単純に、面白かった、というコメントではいかんのかな。
儂は面白かったよ、このエントリー。
細部はともかく大筋同意だ。
が、韓国に対してコレで間に合うのか?

Posted by: トリル | April 24, 2006 at 08:09 PM

全体としては、
1対5で迎えた8回表、
見事なダブルプレーで追加点を防いだ。

というところなのではないでしょうか?
今後につながるプレーかとは思われますが、
大きく負け越していると。

Posted by: 六然 | April 25, 2006 at 05:40 PM

ご参考まで

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/news/20060422it14.htm

>結局、韓国が6月の国際会議に名称提案しないことは「谷内氏が確認」することとし、日本側がそれを公表することについて、韓国側は「勝手にすればいい」と突き放す形で、協議はまとまった。
>韓国側は「6月の国際会議に韓国名の提案をしない」と明言しておらず~

この記事を読む限りでは、韓国側は全く妥協してない様に見えます。

http://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/shingi/gijyutu/gijyutu5/siryo/001/04041501/009.htm

>国連海洋法条約では、沿岸国の200海里までの海底等を大陸棚とするとともに、地形・地質が一定条件を満たす場合、さらに延長することが可能。延長のためには、平成21年5月までに大陸棚の地形・地質に関するデータ等の大陸棚の限界延長に関する情報を国連に提出(申請)することが必要

外交戦術はともかく外交戦略は間違っているのではないかと思われます。
何故なら「6月に韓国がIHOに海図の韓国名を登録するのを阻止」したとしても、平成21年5月ギリギリに韓国が「情報を提出」した場合、それから海洋調査をしたのでは手遅れだから。

Posted by: 通りすがり | April 25, 2006 at 10:42 PM

 韓国は名称見送りの合意はないと言っていますが、それなら「韓国はぎりぎり合理的である」という見立ては違ってくるのではないですか。

Posted by: 名無しさん@ネット右翼 | April 26, 2006 at 08:58 PM

ノムヒョンは、戦争まで持ってきそうだね。
韓国の世論工作は、戦争準備に入っている。
日本の外務省が、さらに読み間違えないことを願うね。
今度出て行けば、調査船を沈めてくるよ

Posted by: 嫌韓派 | April 26, 2006 at 10:41 PM

早速、6月の会議で名称提案すると約束破りをしてきました。
さすが韓国。
想像以上に度し難い国のようです。

Posted by: 通りすがり | April 27, 2006 at 04:42 AM

もう、韓国が赤くなろうが青くなろうが、個人的にはどっちでもいいです。
その昔の日本のひとたちは、併合したからには彼らも天皇陛下の臣民、日本人だからって思ってなにかにと不憫に感じてたんでしょうが。いまや、りっぱに外国なんです。
その国の将来はその国の人間が決定すべきで、大統領を支持するんなら、どうぞ北となかよくいつまでも~。
と、こころの中で静かに怒ることもあるという、国民性を理解してないのでしょう。

外人がよく日本のホンネと建前にぶーぶー言いますが、考えようによっては、ちゃんとした外交感覚だと感じるようになりました。

いつも興味深い内容、ありがとうございます。
マーケットがらみのご考察を拝見したくて、こちらにうかがっているものです。
あちらの経済にからめたご考察も、おうかがいしたいです。

Posted by: 茶タヌキ | April 27, 2006 at 08:48 PM

鳳天さん、コメントありがとうございます。

私も他人事としては対岸の火事は大きいほど面白いわけですが(笑)。

6月に韓国がさっくり裏切ってくる可能性についてですが、それはそれで我々としては韓国の行動パターンについて大変重要な情報を得られますから、見たことも無い海の底の地名と引き換えにしても十分お釣りが来るように思います(実際問題としては、韓国が裏切っても地名は変わりそうにないとのことですが)。

問題なのは、裏切るときに韓国がどのような戦略を立てているかだと思います。ひとつは調査船拿捕を含めた実力行使の覚悟を決めた場合。もうひとつは、日本を「出し抜いた」ことで国内のガス抜きを図り、調査船はそのままスルーする可能性。正直、前者であれば合意せずに交渉決裂で実力行使にでたほうが明らかに有利だったはずですから、私は一応後者を推しますが・・・斜め上という言葉が脳裏をよぎります。

そのあたりはまた調査船を浮かべて交渉すれば、ある程度読めるのではないかと思います。決裂したら巡視船で周りを固めて突入するしかないでしょうねぇ・・・。まぁ、カワセミさんも書いていましたが、その程度の小競り合いにも慣れておいたほうがいいかもしれません。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 28, 2006 at 05:38 AM

tasaedaさん、コメントありがとうございます。

そういえばそうでしたね。文章の流れとして三拍子欲しかったのでさらっと書いたのですが、「韓国の立場から言えば」とか加えておけば大丈夫でしょうか。彼らの立場だと独立戦争に不幸にも敗れた結果併合されたことになってたはずですし(甲午農民戦争でしたっけ?)。実情は大きく異なるとしても。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 28, 2006 at 05:54 AM

cruさん、コメントありがとうございます。

>戦争に負けて併合されたわけではないところが、また「恨」が深くなる原因というか…

いや全く。なんというか、韓国人として生きるのは大変そうだなぁと思ったりもします。まぁ、日本人として生きるのも大変だろというツッコミが世界中からきそうですが(韓国と意味合いは異なるにせよ)。

最後に日本がどんな譲歩をしたのかは興味のあるところですね。それが「韓国は登録撤回を明言せずとも良い」というものであったとしても、それは問題ないと思います。そういう腹芸が出来る相手なのかどうかは今のうちに見極めておく必要がありますし。それで6月にしゃあしゃあと裏切る相手であれば、こちらは次からそれを前提に交渉戦略をアップデートすればいいだけのことですし。しかも、次の交渉のきっかけを作るイニシアチブ(調査船派遣)はこちらが握っています。最善のタイミングで仕掛ければ良い訳です。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 28, 2006 at 06:03 AM

嫌韓派さん、コメントありがとうございます。

おっしゃるとおり、私が読み違えている可能性は低くは無いと思います。ただ、たとえ読み違えて彼らがIHOで地名登録を狙ったとしても、我々に失うものはありません。むしろ、韓国が土壇場で日本に対してどういう行動をとるのかを知る良いサンプルとなるでしょう。

そのとき改めて調査船を派遣すればよいことですし、そのとき我々の交渉力は前回以上に強化されることになります。

ただし、本来は韓国もそのくらいは読めているはずで(そうでないと困るのです)、抗議だけして調査船はスルー、というのは戦略としてはありだと思います。それも出来ずにまたガチンコ勝負に出てくるなら、いよいよ話の通じない連中として見放す必要もでてくるでしょう。その際は、調査船の周りをびっちり巡視船で固めて出陣すべきです。

調査船を派遣して拿捕させてしまえ、という意見には賛成しません。これだけ有利な状況で、そんなopportunismを取らなくてもやりようはあるのではないかと思います。相手が拿捕してくるかどうか見極めるために調査船を出すのは、リトマス試験紙で済む試験を人体実験でやるようなものではないかと。交渉して「これは実力行使にでるな」と確信が持てたのならそれをまず公表した上で40隻の巡視船で大名行列を組めばいいのですし、逆に大丈夫だと思ったら調査船だけで穏便に済ませばよいのだと思います。相手の行動が読めない段階でこちらがリスクのある行動に打って出る必要性は無いのではないでしょうか。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 28, 2006 at 06:27 AM

のびいさん、コメントありがとうございます。

とりあえず、外交で国民感情を考慮に入れるとろくなことにならないように思います(その意味では岸信介は立派でした)。台湾もそうですが、内政で行き詰ると外交はよほどの覚悟が無い限りうまくいかないのかもしれませんね。だとすると韓国はノムヒョンが辞める2008年までは放置するしかないということになるのですが・・・。それまでに北朝鮮が崩壊したらどうなるんでしょう。

中国は一番得をしてますね。尖閣諸島で日本不利、というのは始めて聞きましたが、それが無くとも対岸の火事を煽れば煽るほど彼らは今後の戦略を立てやすくなります。実際、「我々は冷静に尖閣諸島問題を話し合う」みたいな声明がありませんでしたっけ。早速戦略を組み替えてきたのかと邪推しました。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 28, 2006 at 06:43 AM

昔と違い、今は小型の船舶でも精密な海底地形の測定ツールを使えるようになってますので、今回の調査船派遣のような露骨なブラフやらなくても水路測定は可能です。

http://www.ohti.co.jp/geology1.htm
http://www.ohti.co.jp/multibeam1.htm

http://www.oyo.co.jp/product/6-marine/system_3000.html

しかし、精密な海底地図を作成するには海域を走査する必要があるので、流石に竹島周辺は調査ができない可能性もあります。

そのような場合でも、本来は海底火山などの危険な対象を調査するためのものですが、無人の潜水探査艇もあります。
http://underwater.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/top/myoujin2005/Myoujin05.html
http://www.mes.co.jp/press/2003/20031225.html

Posted by: ■□ Neon / himorogi □■ | April 28, 2006 at 04:06 PM

SLEEPさん、コメントありがとうございます。

いや、おっしゃるとおりです。一瞬「中国みたいに3000年近くビッグパワーであり続けた国の隣国でいるのは大変なのかなぁとも思いましたが、良く考えたらモンゴルは2000年にわたって反抗し続け、最終的には漢民族を支配し、変質させてしまった(同時にモンゴルも変質したでしょうが)わけで、言い訳としては有効ではないですね。

まぁ、過日のモンゴルくらいにしっかりしていてくれれば、そもそも韓国併合などやらずとも対処の仕様があったのかもしれませんが・・・

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 29, 2006 at 12:48 AM

トリルさん、コメントありがとうございます。そんなコメントも大歓迎です。

正直、これで足りるかどうかとなると良く分かりません。それを見極めるためにも今回の交渉は重要なのかなと思います。いざ北朝鮮が崩壊するかどうか、という瀬戸際ではこんなことやっている余裕はないでしょうから。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 29, 2006 at 12:51 AM

六然さん、コメントありがとうございます。

結局問題なのは、われわれは何を争っているのかということだと思います。そもそも、竹島領有権問題はそんな簡単に解決する問題ではありませんから、延長18回まで続くことを前提に議論した方が良いと思います。

また、竹島問題は実質漁業権問題であり、それ単体の重要性はあまり高くありません。むしろ、今後の日韓関係構築という大命題の中の重要な1ピースであると捉えた方が良いのではないかと思います。北が崩壊したら、もっとややこしいことを議論せねばならないのですし。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 29, 2006 at 05:58 AM

通りすがりさん、コメントありがとうございます。

相手の公式発言を否定しないという形での意思表明は日韓の交渉に限らず、世界的に一般的なプロトコルではないでしょうか。また、最終的に彼らがこのプロトコルを破り、IHO登録を狙った場合には、我々は今後このプロトコルの適用を一切拒否すればよいのです。その意味だけでも十分貴重な情報でしょう。日本にとっても、世界各国向けの広報戦略としても。大体、彼らがIHO登録を図っても、我々に失うものは何もありません。

上でも書きましたが、この竹島関連問題は単体で考えるのではなく、より幅広い日韓関係構築の戦略の一部分としてとららえねばならないと思います。連中は竹島関連に外交問題を絞ってすっかり視野狭窄に陥っているようですが、今後10年、特に北朝鮮や中国が不安定化してきたときに、韓国という存在は緩衝材(または出島)として重要な意味を持ちます。そこでの交渉こそが本番であり、たとえ竹島で威嚇射撃の応酬になったところで、それがマイナーな問題であることには変わりは無いと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 29, 2006 at 10:04 PM

名無しさん@ネット右翼さん、コメントありがとうございます。

昔「平和主義を唱える人たちへ」のコメント欄でも書いたのですが、交渉事、特に外交交渉における言葉の価値というのは常識で考えられている以上に低いのだと思います。あらゆる言葉は何らかの裏づけをもって始めて意味を持ちえます。逆に言うと、裏づけがあるならば、発言のぶれにそれほど拘泥する必要は無いとも言えるでしょう。

もちろん、実際に6月に登録を強行する可能性はゼロではありません。その場合は、彼らの言葉が信じられなくなるということ以上に、「6月に登録を強行しようとしても韓国にメリットは薄い」という我々の考える「裏づけ」が、彼らには裏づけとして機能していないことが大きな問題になると思います。その場合、我々は韓国に対しても対北朝鮮と同様の、対既知外外交戦略を採用していく必要があるでしょう。しかし、それを我々が今判断する必要はありません。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 29, 2006 at 10:12 PM

嫌韓派さん、コメントありがとうございます。

上でも書きましたが、大統領のコメントは拿捕への覚悟を固めた可能性と、IHOで適当にガス抜きしてむしろ調査船をスルーする可能性の2つが考えられます。そもそも、選挙前の今の発言をまともに評価しようとしても時間の無駄ではないでしょうか。彼らは今興奮して酩酊状態にあるわけですから、彼らのコメントにいちいち反応してもしょうがないのではないかと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 29, 2006 at 10:15 PM

通りすがりさん、コメントありがとうございます。

基本的にはすぐ上のコメントがすべてなのですが。

外交関係においてこのように軽々しいコメントを吐くというのは、度し難いというよりもその外交交渉に対する無知に対してため息が出ます。まぁ独立国として交渉を重ねた経験があまりにも少ない以上は、避け難いのかもしれません。

100年前であれば、その無知に付け込んで色々と国権をむしるところですが、少なくとも今の世界情勢ではそれは不可能です。である以上、むしろ中ロ北とのバッファとして役に立ってもらうためにも、もう少し日本が交渉の訓練に付き合ってもいいかなと思っています。我々にとっても得るものは大きいですし。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 29, 2006 at 10:21 PM

茶タヌキさん、コメントありがとうございます。

エントリーでも書きましたが、韓国がどんな利益・損害を受けるかは我々には関係の無い話ですから、あまり「韓国をどれだけ痛めつけるか」を基準に議論をしないほうがいいと思うんですよね。重要なのは日本の国益であり、それに違うのであれば叩き、逆に沿うのであれば援助すればよいのだと思います。好き嫌いとは関係なく。

本音と建前なんてどの国の人でも使っていると思います。特にヨーロッパは日本の比ではありません。

そういえば最近マーケットネタが少ないですね。すいません。中韓はそれほど目新しい話が無いもので・・・。そのうち中国経済の話はもう一度書こうと思うのですが。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 29, 2006 at 10:32 PM

himorogiさん、コメントありがとうございます。

なるほど、色々あるのですね。後々のためにも、こっそり調査を済ませておくのは悪くないかもしれません。

ただ、外交交渉としては我々の意思と行動を韓国にはっきり示す点にこそ意味があると思いますので、どちらにしても堂々と調査船を出すことは必要だと思います。むしろ、その点のみに意味があるのであって、海底調査をするかどうかは私の中ではあまりプライオリティが高くありません。それよりも、約束をまるで反故にしたかのようなせりふを吐いて失笑を買った韓国が、実際にIHO登録を強行するかどうかに興味がありますね。これで強行しなければ、彼らの発言は(どんなに過激なものであれ)基本的に無視しても大丈夫ということになりますし、逆に強行した場合は、理屈の通じない相手に対する交渉策を練りなおす必要があります。この場合、宗主国中国を活用する・徹底的に強硬に当たる、といった対北朝鮮策を援用することになるのだと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | May 02, 2006 at 07:01 AM

馬車馬さんこんにちは、初めて来ました。
私は投資の上がりで海外を放浪している者です。

さてブログで色々発言しておられますが
いったい貴方は誰ですか?
自己紹介してもらえないでしょうか?
宜しく。

Posted by: okada | May 06, 2006 at 04:51 PM

okadaさん
投資の上がりで海外生活なんて夢のようですね。
うらやましい・・・。
さて、こういうブログで管理人さんの身の上詮索をするのは、最近では暗黙の了解でタブーっぽいことになってるみたいですよ。
初めて来られてご自身の事は何も語らず、いきなり自己紹介しろってのも若干失礼な気もします。
貧乏人のお節介ですので、ご無礼ご容赦ください。

Posted by: zaza | May 09, 2006 at 06:00 PM

okadaさん、コメントありがとうございます。

申し訳ないのですが、このブログではプライベートに関わる情報は極力出さないようにしています(たまに文中に漏れ出すので、分かる人にはわかってしまうかもしれませんが)。別に隠し立てする理由があるわけではないのですが、このようなブログは匿名のほうが何かと便利だと思いまして。その辺りは昔「匿名の重み・実名の重み」というシリーズで色々書きましたのでよろしければそちらもご覧ください。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | May 10, 2006 at 08:06 PM

zazaさん、フォローありがとうございます。

単純な話、プライベートなことを書くのって結構恥ずかしいんですよね。このブログのことも家族を除けば極数人にしか存在を教えていません。友人知人に見られるの恥ずかしいですし、下手なことを書くと「旅の恥はなんとやら」が出来なくなるので推敲に時間を取られそうですし。

おっしゃるとおり、投資の上がりでhappy retirementは男の夢ですねぇ。私はとりあえずじっと手を見るほうですが(笑)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | May 10, 2006 at 08:10 PM

馬車馬さん。

日本は事務総長選挙でパンギムンに入れたらしいですね。
朝鮮日報のウェブに出ていました。

最近エントリー更新されていないので残念です。

Posted by: のびい | September 04, 2006 at 05:39 AM

あれ、もう選挙の投票って終わったんでしたっけ。予備選挙では韓国「にも」入れたとは聞いていましたが・・・最近ニュースのチェックも甘くていかんです。

エントリーが滞っていてごめんなさい。最近怖くてアクセス解析のページを開けません(無駄足を踏んでくださっている方が毎日4桁いるかと思うと・・・)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 09, 2006 at 10:51 AM

書き方が悪くてすみません。予備選でした。

でも、本当に当確になってしまったようですね。

でも、これで常任理事国入りに事務総長自ら反対することにでもなれば、日本は分担金の大幅削減を求める口実ができますね。

Posted by: のびい | October 04, 2006 at 06:36 PM

のびいさん、コメントありがとうございます。またしてもリプライが遅れてごめんなさい。

どうもどたばた続きでして、もうしばらくこんな調子になりそうです。あと1年近くはこんな調子になってしまうかもしれません。新しいエントリーも2ページくらい書いたまま・・・

それにしても、本当になってしまいましたねぇ。ただ、Economistは結構彼に対して辛辣なコメントをしていました。個人的には、これで韓国も外交の何たるかを学んでくれれば良いと思います。大国の狭間に位置するにもかかわらず、有史以来、外交経験のほとんど無い特殊な国ですから・・・。あっちこっちの国の厚顔なわがままの調整に汗を流して見えてくるものもあるだろう、と思うわけです。

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