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あけましておめでとうございます

長いことご無沙汰してしまい申し訳ありません。どうも私事で忙殺されておりまして、当面は「書ける時にだけ書く」という完全不定期更新状態で行かせていただきたいと思います。ここ数ヶ月無駄足を踏まれた方、大変申し訳ありません。


そうは言っても、書きたいネタがないわけでもないのです。「しんぶんドンキ化計画」「アメリカの貿易赤字とクレジットスプレッド」など、タイトルまで決めて2ページほど書き進んだ原稿もありました。ただ、何故かMSWordが「日本語原稿を開いたときにだけフリーズする」という不思議現象に見舞われまして、あえなく放置と相成ったのですが(今はOpenOffice.orgで書いています。正直、これで十分でした)。


大臣竹中平蔵氏の引退

そんな没原稿のひとつが「大臣竹中平蔵氏の引退」です。こちらこちらこちらのエントリーで書いたとおり「pro竹中平蔵」気味な当サイトとしては(不良債権処理を成功させたという一点だけでも、支持する理由としては十分なのです)、氏が辞めるときに受けた批判に対しても「一言書いておくべきか」と色々書き散らしてはいたのです。しかし、数日放置している間にその手の批判は世論の支持を得られぬまま消滅してしまったため、筆者もやる気を失ってお蔵入りとなりました。特に、こちらのエントリーで紹介されている不思議陰謀論がどれだけ馬鹿げているかを色々書いたのですが、よく考えてみるとそんなのに付き合って時間をつぶすなど馬鹿馬鹿しいにも程がある、ということに気がつきまして。

せっかくですので軽く書いておきますと、その不思議陰謀論によれば郵貯資金から200兆円を使って米国30年債を買い、その見返りに小泉氏と竹中氏が1兆円の米国債をもらったのだそうで。ちなみに、米国30年債の市場発行総額は50兆円程度です。陰謀論をぶち上げるのは結構ですが、5分もあれば調べがつくことなのですから、もう少しディティールに気をつけて話を作ってもらいたいものです(注1)

これは「大臣竹中平蔵氏の勝利と敗北」でも書いたのですが、氏の業績というのはどうも分かりづらいのか、「郵貯を外資に売り渡した」といったどうしようもない暴論が未だに目に付きます。こういう人たちには何を言っても聞く耳持たないし、と基本的には無視していたのですが、氏が引退したときの騒動でむしろ竹中氏への支持が多かった(引退したことへの支持というより、今まで頑張ったんだからいいじゃないか、といった評価が多かったように思います)ことを確認できたのは個人的には収穫でした。結構みんなちゃんと見ているんだなぁと。

没原稿では竹中氏の業績について(特に不良債権処理について)縷々説明していたのですが、昔似たようなことも書いておりますので、今回は割愛といたします。

ちなみに、筆者自身は竹中氏の引退にはむしろ肯定的です。こちらのエントリーでも書いたことですが、氏が選挙に打って出た(そうせざるをえなかった?)ことに対して筆者は否定的な立場なものですから。ある意味氏はいわゆる「リボルビングドア」がないところに、無理やり壁に穴を開けてそれを作ってしまったわけで、これ自体が学者の政治任用への一里塚となったと言えるのではないでしょうか。


今年もよろしくお願いいたします。


注1:厳密には、米国債は非市場性債券が400兆円ほど存在し、その半数が30年債であるという可能性も一応ゼロではありません(こちらの内訳は非公開のはず)。ただし、この非市場性債券の9割以上はGovernment Account Series(GAS)と呼ばれる、政府自身が保有する国債(自分で自分に貸しているわけです。具体的には政府系信託や地方政府などが資金運用や金利裁定の目的で購入している・・・はずです)のため、これを郵貯が購入するというのは全く筋が通りません。まぁ、アメリカに基金を創設って言うことはハードキャッシュを200兆円も動かしたんですか、為替が大変なことになりそうですね、とか、200兆円分日本国債売ったんですか、財務省が卒倒しそうですね、とか、そもそも米国債の海外保有総額が200兆円前後だったと思うんですが、とか、きりがないんですが。
しかも、今読み返したら「実は40年債でした」って。40年債なんて発行されてませんから。正確には非市場性債券であるSLGSで若干発行されていますが、SLGSは譲渡不可ですし、発行総額自体(全満期で)20兆円程度に過ぎません。非市場性債券の大半を占めるGASは市場性債券と同条件で発行されるので、40年債など発行されたことはありません。ホント勘弁してください。

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Comments

随分とご無沙汰でした(笑)。新年の挨拶でも、と思っていたら、格好のエントリーが挙がっておりました。今年もよろしくお願いします。日銀の金利正常化路線、危ういですが、ウォッチしていきたいと思います。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | January 07, 2007 at 12:28 PM

本石町日記さん、明けましておめでとうございます。
結構書きたいと思うことはあるんですが、2ページ目くらいで時間切れになったりキーボードを打つ手が止まったりでどうもまとまりません。とあるネタを勢いで書き上げたりもしたんですが、ongoingの論争ネタでしかも感情的なコメントが増えそうなお題だったので、結局没にしてしまいました。

とりあえず、最近のクレジットスプレッドのshrinkをアメリカの貿易赤字で説明するという少し前のThe Economistのネタは紹介しておきたいところなんですけど。月末までに仕上げるのが目標です。

こんないい加減なブログですが、どうぞよろしくお願いいたします。

PS とりあえず、利上げはベアスティープが進んでからでも良いのではと思うのですが。地価のようなfundamental asset priceが急騰しない限り、資産バブルを気にする必要はないと思いますし・・・。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 10, 2007 at 11:20 AM

そろそろ更新待ってまーす

Posted by: zaza | May 03, 2007 at 11:05 AM

あああ、ごめんなさいごめんなさい。
一応こつこつシリーズ物の原稿(のメモ)を書きためてはいるんですが。
(夏までには書き上げようと思っています)。
他にも為替レートとアメリカの貿易赤字の話とか。
私事のピークが6月上旬なので、7〜8月にはいくつか書くつもりです。
もう少々お待ちください。すみません。。。

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