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匿名の理論価格(上)

数年前に実名だの匿名だので「べき論」を書いたことがあるのですが(1,2,3,4)、今回はちょっと違うスタンスで書いてみようと思います。通常この手の話はモラルだのマナーだのとセットで語られることが多いわけですが、ぶっちゃけた話我々はいつもそんな高邁なことを考えながらブログを書いているわけではありません。我々は幅広い意味で自分の『得』になるからブログを書いているのです(別に金銭的な損得だけではなく、自己満足や知的ヨロコビとか、全てを『得』だと定義しておきましょう)。

とりあえず、ネットをより良い言論空間にしていくとか、そういう高尚な話はこのエントリーではすっぱり忘れましょう。高いマインドセットを持つのは結構なことですが、その結果としてあなたのブログが(又は、人生が)炎上したのでは、その焼け跡に立派な言論空間とやらが出来たとしてもあなたは全く報われません。

匿名を許すとコメント欄が荒れる、というのも良く聞く話です。しかし、問題なのはあなたが人様のコメント欄を荒らすかどうかではなく、せっかく作った自分のブログが他人に荒らされるかどうかです。どこか他のブログが炎上したところであなたには何の関係もありません。コメント欄が炎上して「ネットの匿名性は問題だ!」と仰る方は多いですが、別に彼らの防火運動に我々がタダで協力する義理はないのです。対岸の火事は楽しむもの。ネットのマナーを叫ぶのは自分のコメント欄に火がついてからでも遅くはありません(注1,2)。


匿名≧実名

さて、のっけから結論を書きますと、「ブログを匿名で始めるよりも実名で始めるほうが良い」ということは理論的にありえません。理由は簡単で、匿名で始めたブログを実名に変えることは簡単でも、実名で始めたブログを匿名に切り替えるのは不可能だからです。どうしても実名でやりたければ、10秒後にプロフィール欄をちょちょっと書き換えればよろしい。つまり、匿名ブログは「実名ブログにいつでも切り替えられる」という選択肢(=権利)がある分だけ、実名ブログよりも確実に価値が高いのです。

もちろん、世の中は広いので「俺はとにかく実名でやりたいんだ!」という人はいます。そういう人にとってはこの「権利」を即行使して実名になれば良いわけで、匿名ブログは依然として実名ブログと同程度に魅力的です。つまり、世の中には「実名よりも匿名で書き始めたほうが良い人」と、「実名で始めても匿名で始めても変わらない人」の2種類しか存在しません。

ただし、これは「ブログはずっと匿名で書き続けるべき」という意味ではありません。一定の状況下では匿名よりも実名の方が有利になることはありえます。そもそも、そうでなければ、世の中に実名ブログが少数とはいえ存在することを説明できません。

そして、あなたが匿名を捨てるべきなのは、上に書いた「実名ブログにいつでも切り替えられる権利(=匿名で書き続けられる権利)」の価値を、「実名でブログを書いて得られる価値」が上回った時になります。つまり、この2つの権利の価値を計算できれば、我々は「言論のヨクアツ」だのなんだのと言った、筆者にはよく理解できない難しい話を一切抜きにして匿名か実名かを選択できるのであります。


匿名の理論価値

では、この「実名に切り替えられる権利=匿名で書き続ける権利」は一体どれほどの価値を持っているのでしょうか。金融を勉強した人ならお分かりでしょうが、これはいわゆる「オプション」そのものです。


「オプション」というのは、何かを買う(または売る)権利のことです。例として株オプションを考えて見ましょう。普通にあなたが○×△株を100円で買った場合、株価が100円よりも上がれば儲かりますし、下がれば損をします。当たり前ですね。しかし、あなたが株ではなく「○×△株を100円で買う権利」を入手した場合、話はだいぶ変わってきます。もし株価がその後120円になった場合、あなたは喜んでこの「権利」を行使し、本来120円で買わねばならない株を100円で入手することが出来ます。20円儲かるわけです。もしあなたが権利ではなく、株自体を100円のときに買っていたとしても、やはり20円儲かるので、儲かる額は同じです。

一方で、もし○×△の株価が80円に下がった場合は話が違ってきます。○×△株を80円で買えるのに、「○×△株を100円で買う権利」を行使して100円で同じ株を購入するのは馬鹿のやること。このとき、あなたはこの「権利」を行使せずに捨ててしまいます。これで、少なくとも株で損はせずにすむわけです。一方で、もしオプションではなく株を買っていたら、20円の損は確定します。つまり、株の代わりにその株のオプションを入手することで、「株価が上がれば儲かるけど、下がっても損をしない」という夢のような投資を実行できるわけです。…と、こう書いてしまうと胡散臭いですが、もちろんこの「権利」はタダでは入手できません。上で書いたメリットに見合うだけの代価をあなたは支払わなければいけません。それが「オプションの価格(株をある価格で買う権利の価格)」です。下の図は今の話を大雑把に図示したものです。

Optiontheory0_2

これが「実名でブログを書く」=「株をそのまま買う」、「匿名で書く」=「オプションを買う」と置き換えがきくことにお気づきでしょうか。図の横軸を株価ではなく「ブログの評判」、縦軸を「利益(金銭的なものに限らない)」と変えてみましょう。もし実名で下手なことを書いて評判を失った場合、その損失は書き手を直撃します。しかし、匿名で書いていてブログが大炎上したとしても、ケツを捲くってとんずらしてしまえばいいのです(=実名でブログを書く権利を放棄する)。リアルな世界の方のあなたは全く傷つきません。逆に、あなたが匿名で書いた私小説が大ヒットしたら、それから実名を公開して出版してしまえばよろしい。そうすることで最初から実名で公開するのと同じ利益を得ることが出来るはずです。更にありがたいことに、株オプションと違って、このオプションはタダでもらえるのです。下の図を見ると、株と違って、赤線が青線を下回っていることがありませんね。これが上で書いた「匿名≧実名」の意味です(注3)。

Optiontheory1_2

さて、この図を見ると「なんだ、じゃぁ、それなりに評判が出たら実名でも匿名でも変わらないって事じゃん」と思われる人もいるかもしれませんが、そうでもありません。なぜかというと、オプションの真の価値は赤線ではなく、その上に薄く引かれている灰色の曲線で表されるからです。ここを考えることで「どんな人が実名でブログを書くべきか」が見えてくるのですが、それについては次回。


本日のまとめ

匿名は、いつでも実名に変更できる権利を持っており、又いつでもトンズラできるという点で実名よりも有利。

匿名ではなく、実名でブログを始めたほうが有利になるということはありえない。

更新しなくてごめんなさい。


注1:蛇足と思いつつ念のために書きますが、上の文章は「このエントリーでの思考実験はこのようなスタンスを前提条件としています」という意味であって、こう考えるべきだ、という意味ではありません。というわけで、「こんな考え方はけしからん!」みたいなコメントはご勘弁ください。

注2:原則として、匿名はペンネームを想定し、匿名掲示板のような完全な匿名はここでは考えません。

注3:ここでは、一応「実名だと出版や寄稿の機会が増えたり、リアルな友達にもブログの話が出来る(例えば、自慢できる、とか)分だけ、匿名よりも有利である」ことを仮定しています。逆に言うと、匿名である限りは一切利益は得られず、匿名で得られた利益は実名化したとき初めて享受できるものと仮定しています。これは一見おかしな仮定に見えますが、それほど非現実的ではありません。なぜかというと、匿名のまま書いていて得られる利益(自己満足とか)は、実名でも同様に得られる可能性が高いからです。本文で書いたとおり、このエントリーの目的は実名と匿名の価値を比較することですから、両方から同じ額の「価値(自己満足とか)」を差し引いても大小関係は変わらず、結論に影響しません。問題なのは、人に知られたくない性癖を赤裸々に綴って人気を博しているケースなどですが、その場合は問答無用で匿名のほうが有利なので、このエントリーでは扱いません。

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Comments

長いこと間を空けてしまってすみません。敬体の文章は昔から試したかったのでやってみましたが、たぶん次からは元に戻します。8月は少し時間が取れそうなので、前から考えていたシリーズものを書くかもしれません。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 27, 2007 at 03:55 AM

おお、また馬車馬さんの記事が読めると思いませんでした。
RSSフィードの取得と早起きはしてみるものですね。

Posted by: kinami | July 27, 2007 at 06:12 AM

間あきすぎ。今ほど面白くてレヴェル高くなくていいからもっといっぱい書いて下さい。欲求不満になる。

Posted by: き | July 27, 2007 at 03:10 PM

陰ながら、復活されるのを待ち焦がれておりました。
毎回楽しみに読ませて頂いております。
今回のような、「オプションを行使する時期と条件」の話は、考えるのも面白くて好きです。
次回も期待しております。

Posted by: angel | July 27, 2007 at 11:11 PM

おー、ブログはじめよっかなーと考えていたときにタイムリーな企画。
RSSフィードの取得と(ry

Posted by: Cru | July 28, 2007 at 12:21 AM

馬車馬さんにあったペースでされてください。
われわれはRSSリーダーに登録しておけばいいだけですから(^^

Posted by: ひろ | July 28, 2007 at 01:22 AM

kinamiさん、コメントありがとうございます。

実質1年ぶりの更新ですからね・・・時間が空いてしまってごめんなさい。RSSリーダーとかアンテナとか、いい時代になりました。5年前ならブックマークの切れ目が縁の切れ目だったわけですもんね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 28, 2007 at 08:19 PM

き さん、コメントありがとうございます。

いや、すみません。実は何度か書きかけたんですが、自分の脳内ツッコミに敗れてお蔵入りになったエントリーが幾つかあります。8月はいくつかエントリーを書くつもりなので、それで埋め合わせということでひとつよろしくお願いします。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 28, 2007 at 08:23 PM

angelさん、コメントありがとうございます。

そう言って頂くと頑張って図を描いた甲斐があります。オプションの説明をするのと、ブラックショールズの式を思い出すのが面倒で脳内お蔵入りにしていたネタなのですが、なんだか久しぶりに実名匿名の話が盛り上がっていたので頑張って書いてみました。(下)の方はつい書きすぎてしまって、オプションを知っている人で無いと全然面白くないかもしれませんが・・・。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 28, 2007 at 08:30 PM

Cruさん、コメントありがとうございます。

RSSリーダーが普及していて(ry)

実は、未だにRSSは使い方が分からなくてアンテナを使っているんですが。昔使ったらコメントのたびにnoticeがやってくるので閉口して止めてしまいました。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 28, 2007 at 08:33 PM

ひろさん、コメントありがとうございます。

30分くらいの空いた時間でささっと書ければいいんですが、何度か試した結果私には無理だと悟りました。こういう違いって何で生まれるんでしょうかね?

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 28, 2007 at 08:37 PM

ふとした疑問ですが、「実名がばれるリスク」を定量化して考えなくても良いのでしょうか?
初めから実名であれば実名がばれるリスクは0ですが、匿名の場合は大なり小なりのリスクがあるような気がします。

Posted by: リスク選好者 | July 29, 2007 at 12:36 AM

>こういう違いって何で生まれるんでしょうかね?
いい加減さの違いからかと(笑)

Posted by: 15分でエントリを上げる人 | July 29, 2007 at 01:12 AM

リスク選考者さん、コメントありがとうございます。

基本的にはおっしゃるとおりだと思います。ただし、この場合は「実名であれば実名がばれるリスクは100%」と解釈すべきだと思いますが。実はこれはoff-topicだったので削ってしまったのですが、匿名のもうひとつの利点は「匿名の度合い」をコントロールできる点にあります。例えば、友人にだけブログの存在を教えるとか、そうすることで「実名の配当」を一部受け取れるようになるわけですが、その分だけ「実名がばれるリスク」は上昇しているわけで、これは「少し実名化した匿名」とか「20%実名」と考えるべきだと思います。

つまり、実名と匿名というのは実は明確な線引きはない、ということになりますね。そして、実名がばれるのは大概余計なことを書いたときですから、実はその「リスク」自体も無意識のうちに書き手が選んでいると考えられると思います。

ただし、それとは別に「ココログから個人情報流出」というケースはありえます。その分だけ、上の灰色の線は下にシフトすることになると思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 29, 2007 at 06:36 PM

15分でエントリをあげる人 さん、コメントありがとうございます。

うーん、私もいい加減さでは人後に落ちない(というか、落ちているというか)つもりなのですが(笑)。最初に金融政策のまじめな話でブログを始めてしまったので、いまさら「今日のカレー」の話題とかも書きづらいんですよねー。というか、日記的に(随筆的に)書くのが苦手なのかもしれません。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 29, 2007 at 06:39 PM

復帰をお慶びいたします。
その日のカレーは、それはそれでいいかも。

Posted by: 鳳天 | July 30, 2007 at 12:09 AM

鳳天さん、御無沙汰しておりました。

8月にシリーズ物を書こうと思っているのですが、そのためにちょっと読んでおきたい本をまだほとんど読み進んでおらず、一体どうなることやら。。。

最悪の場合、スパイスから作るこだわりカレーの作り方について熱く語って代わりとするしかないかもしれません(笑)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | August 02, 2007 at 12:41 AM

復活おめでとうございます。
また馬車馬さんのエントリが読めると思うと、楽しみが一つ増えた喜びでイッパイになります。
ぜひぜひ私の楽しみを奪わないで下さいまし(笑)

Posted by: のぶー | August 11, 2007 at 12:38 AM

のぶーさん、コメントありがとうございます(リプライが遅れてごめんなさい)。そこまで仰っていただけると書き手冥利につきます。
今3年越しのネタを書くべく準備しておりますので、今しばらくお待ちいただきたく。。。8月中には何としても書くつもりです(ホントは8月中に3本くらいは書くつもりだったんですが。。。)

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