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匿名の理論価格(下)

さて、前回は、匿名と実名の問題は実はオプション理論で考えられる、という話をしたわけですが、今回は本題である「匿名と実名の価値はどう変化して、いつ実名が有利になるのか」を考えていきましょう。


匿名の価値を決める3要素

前回書いたとおり、上の図の灰色の曲線こそが匿名の「真の価値」なのですが、これは3つの要素で決まってきます。

1.ブログの評判

これは当たり前ですね。評判が上がれば上がるほど、灰色の線は上昇しています。そして、評判が下がっても灰色の線はマイナスになりません(あなた個人は損をしない)。これは前回説明したとおり、匿名ならトンズラこけるからであります。

2.評判のぶれの大きさ

ここが本題です。ブログで朝顔の観察日記を書くと考えましょう。この場合、あなたが何を書こうが、ブログの評判は多分上がりもしなければ下がりもしません。このとき、匿名で書くことに意味はさほどありません。匿名のメリットは「ウケたら利益、コケたらトンズラ」にあるわけですから、コケる可能性が皆無なら匿名という「オプション」にはそれほど意味がありません。他にも、使えるフリーソフトについて粛々と語るとか、毎日飼い猫の写真を投稿といったブログでも、「有利なときだけ実名に変更できる権利(=不利になったら逃げ出せる権利)」としての匿名にはそれほど価値はないでしょう。(それでも、実名と同じ価値は依然としてあることに注意)

一方で、世の中には毀誉褒貶の激しいネタというのが存在します。政治宗教プロ野球。うまく当てれば評判はうなぎのぼりですが、一度外すととことん貶され、コメント欄は炎上し、延焼を重ねてブログそのものが焼け落ちることも少なくありません。

この場合、「評判のぶれ」には2つの要素があります。まず、書き手の側のぶれ。いわゆる「筆がすべる」というやつです。感情を叩きつけるようなエントリーを売りにしている人は大概これに嵌ります。感情系のエントリーは構造が単純で短いことが多く、読みやすいだけに、盛り上がるときは盛り上がるのですが、一度外すとどこまでも転がり落ちていくのが特徴です。もちろん感情系のブログでなくとも筆がすべることはありますが。

もうひとつは、読み手の側の評価のぶれです。頑張ってエントリーを書いたところで、読み手がそれを正確に理解してくれるとは限りません。勘違いをベースにもてはやされることも、また貶されることもあるわけです。特に、「多くの人が興味を持っているが、それを本当に理解するだけの専門知識をもっている人は少ない」トピックでは、勘違いに尾ひれがついてカオスの様相を呈する恐れがあります。特に掲示板などでは、勘違いしている人同士がその勘違いを肯定し合い、それを見た人がその勘違いを「事実」と認識してしまったり、というケースは存在します。

このような評判のブレが激しいトピックを扱う場合、「失敗したらとんずら」こける匿名ブログは保険として非常に有用です。特に、ブログを始めたばかりで「海のものとも山のものとも」という状態の場合は、ちょっとした評判のブレで「利益」が水面下に行ってしまいますから、匿名という保険の価値は大きいわけです。一方で、既にあなたが高い評判を得ている場合、少し評判がぶれたところで、あなたが高く評価されていること自体は変わりません。この場合、例え評価が少し下がってもブログを捨てて逃げ出す必要はありません。逃げ出さないことが明らかであれば、実名でも匿名でも大差はありませんから、匿名の価値は「海のものとも山のものとも」というケースに比べて相対的に小さくなります。

Optiontheory3

もう一度図を見ていただくと、灰色の線は真ん中の辺り(評価が定まっていない場合)では赤線に比べてかなり高くなっていますが、評価が高くなるにつれて差が小さくなっているのが分かると思います。これは正に「匿名という保険の価値が今どれだけ評価されているかで変わってくる」ことを意味しています。もちろん、例え今高評価だとしても、極めてぶれの激しいやばいネタに手を出した場合は、匿名保険の価値は高まります。


3.書き手の年齢

実はこれは2番目の話の続きです。若さとは振り向かないことだとか、定義は色々ございますが、若い人がより多くの可能性を持っていることは恐らく皆さん同意されるでしょう。「多くの可能性」とは、「振れ幅が大きい」ということです。今貶されているブログも、20年後には全く違う評価を受けているかもしれません。朝顔観察日記ですら、50年後の朝顔ブームに乗って大もうけできるもしれませんし、逆に「朝顔を栽培するのは魔女の証である」として火あぶりになってしまうかもしれません。将来のことは誰にも分からないのです。つまり、幾ら朝顔観察日記は評価のブレが小さいといっても、長い時間があればそのブレは増幅されていきます。それならば、ブログを実名化するのは、その変化を見極めてからでも遅くはありません。ですから、若い人ほど、匿名であることの価値は高くなるわけです。


実名の価値

株のオプションは、上で見てきたとおり便利なものですが、株に比べて全ての面で勝っているわけではありません。「株を買う権利」であるオプションを持っていても、配当も株主優待も受けられません。実際に株を保有して株主になって始めて、これらの利益を受けることが出来るのです。

実名ブログにも同様のメリットがありそうです。少なくとも、手っ取り早く金になりそうではあります。本を出版するところまで行かなくとも、どこかのウェブページに寄稿して小遣いを稼ぐチャンスはあるでしょう。新書を出すチャンスくらいは巡ってくるかもしれません。もっと手近な例で行けば、、友人からすごいと言ってもらえるかもしれませんし、営業トークのネタに出来るかもしれません。自分で開業している場合は客寄せにもなるでしょう。

匿名には色々とメリットがありますが、匿名を維持して様子を伺っている間は、これら「実名の配当」は受けられません。これこそが実名の価値であり、匿名のコストです。この「実名の配当」を考慮に入れた上で上の図を書き直すと以下のようになるはずです(注1)。

Optiontheory4

この図を見ると、評価が高い人の場合は青い線が灰色の線の上に来ていることが分かります(実名の配当は評判が高いほど大きくなると仮定)。つまり、評価がかなり高い書き手は、実名の配当が匿名の価値を上回るほど大きいので、匿名を維持するよりも実名にしたほうが有利だということです。ただし、実名の配当がかなり高い人というのは実はあまりいません。そもそも、この図は「今」出版したり寄稿したりというチャンスがある場合の話です。目先1~2年の間に出版のチャンスがありそうな人などほとんどいないでしょうし、サラリーマンなら個人のブログで客寄せをする必要もありません(将来出版したり開業したりするのなら、そのときまで匿名を維持するほうが合理的です)。

結局、実名の配当が今すぐ欲しい人は、現職の物書きや、開業して自分の名前でビジネスをやっている人、政治家など、ごく限られた人たちであるということになります。

逆に、実名のコストというのも当然存在します。例えブログの評価が高くとも、毎日更新しているのが上司にばれれば「なかなか暇そうじゃないか」くらいのいやみは覚悟しておくべきでしょうし、金融業などの場合はコンプライアンスのリスクが大きすぎます。


では、誰が実名で書くべきなのか

さて、一通り実名と匿名の価値を考えたところで、どんな人が「実名で書く価値」>「匿名で書く価値」となるのか整理してみましょう。


  • 現時点で高い評価を得ている
  • 評価のブレが小さい(そういうトピックを選んでいる・確固たる肩書きがあって一定の評価は担保されている、など)
  • 若くない
  • 現在文筆業を営んでいるか、開業している。または政治家など、今すぐに広く自分の名前を売る必要のある職業に就いている
  • いやみな上司がいない・うるさい法務部が存在しない

私は実名でブログを書いている人をそれほど多く知っているわけではありませんが、これらの条件がある程度当てはまる人は結構多いのではないでしょうか。

さて、このエントリーの大前提は、前回の冒頭で書いたとおり、高度な言論空間云々といった倫理的な話を一切考慮しない、ある意味自分勝手な人たちを考えるということです。ここで分かったのは、こういった自己中心的な人であっても、上の条件が満たされれば実名でブログを書くだろうということ。言い換えると、実名でブログを書いているからといって、それが何らかの倫理的な優位性を示すということにはならない、ということがここで証明されたわけですね(注2)。

逆に、上の条件を全く満たさない人は、実名でブログを書くべきではありません。それは明らかに非合理的な行動です。


匿名と実名をめぐるその他の話題

前回と今回描いた図から、他のアイデアもいくつか読み取れます。まず、下の図を見ると、評価の高い実名(青線)と評価の高い匿名(灰色)は似たような環境におかれていることが分かります。青線と灰色の線はそれぞれ評判が上がった(下がった)時に実名・匿名の書き手の利益(≒幸せの度合い)がどう変化するかを示しているわけですが、評判が下がったときの「損」が同程度であることが分かります(傾きがほとんど同じ)。

Optiontheory5

また、実名の場合、評価が高かろうと低かろうと、評価の変化に対する利益の増減の仕方は変わりません(直線なので)。つまり、評価の低い実名の書き手は、評価の高い実名の書き手と同様に自分の評価を守ろうとするでしょう。一方で、評価の低い匿名の場合、そこから更に評価を失っても、灰色の線はほとんど水平なので利益はほとんど減りません。これはやりたい放題が可能であるということを意味します。つまり、実名か匿名かでブログの書き方が変わると考えるのは不適切なのです。(潜在的に)問題なのは、評価が低いことを自覚している匿名の書き手ですが、そこまで評価が低くなると「新しい匿名でやり直す」という選択肢が出ますので、結局、積極的に悪意のある人しかこのグループには残りません。(注3)。


また、実名の書き手が、匿名の書き手に比べてネガティブな評価に脆弱なのは上の図から明らかです(注5)。実際、実名の書き手というのは匿名の書き手を嫌うものだとされていますが、良く見ると嫌っているのはネガティブな評価であって、匿名そのものではないことがすぐに分かります(数年前にも、「褒めるときは匿名でもいいが、批判を匿名でするのは許せない」とおっしゃった某評論家のコメントを紹介しました)。

そのため、実名の書き手は議論での「負け」が許されません。しかも、書き手のアピール対象が素人の場合(文筆業など)、観客は議論の決着を判断できません(例えば、原子力発電の専門的な話題など)。実名の配当を守るためには、「絶対に負けを認めず、相手の言葉には耳を貸さず、泥仕合になろうとも相手が疲れ果てるまで自分の意見を押し付け続ける」という戦略が望ましくなります(これは政治家が自分の名前を連呼し続けるのと、本質的には同じメカニズムです)。読み手に「何だか議論が錯綜してどっちの意見が正しいんだか訳分かんない」と思わせれば、敗戦処理は成功です。昨今、実名ブログを巻き込んだ議論がぐだぐだの泥仕合に終わるのを見かけますが、これにはそれなりに理由があるように思います。これは、「実名の書き手が参加すると議論の質が落ちる」可能性があることを示唆しています。匿名の場合、実名に比べて「周囲の評判」の変化が損得に影響しないので議論の相手だけに集中できますが、実名の場合、議論の相手だけでなく、それを見守る大多数の読み手の反応を考慮しなければならない分、議論に集中できないのです。


本日のまとめ

実名で書くべき人は、「現在それなりの評価を得ている」「肩書きがあったり、安定したトピックを選んでいたりして評価のブレが小さい」「若くない」「今すぐに実名の配当を期待できる」「実名化のコストが小さい(自営業など)」の条件のいくつかを満たしている人。

これらが満たされていれば、倫理のかけらも無い人でも実名の書き手になりえるので、実名で書いているからといって倫理的に優れていることの証拠にはならない。

匿名の書き手は、実名に比べて評判の変化が損得に結びつきづらい。ただし、評価が高くなればなるほど、評判と損得の結びつきは強まってゆく。

平均的に言って実名の書き手は評判の低下に対して脆弱なので、評判の低下に過剰に反応して議論の質を下げてしまう恐れがある。


注1:本来これはアメリカンオプションなので、ヨーロピアンオプションを前提にしたこの図は間違っていると思うのだが、アメリカンオプションはちゃんと勉強したことが無いのでお許し願いたい。とりあえず、プレーヤーが「今後1年は匿名のまま様子を見ると決めた場合」の図ということで。
また、本来は配当が高ければその分オプション価格が割り引かれるのであって、株価を表す青線を動かしてしまうのは正しくないわけですが、直感的な理解を優先するということでよろしくお願いします。青線が途中で傾きが上昇しているのは、「実名の配当」は評価の高さに比例して大きくなっていくと考えられるためです(ここは考えれば考えるほどボロが出るような・・・)。

注2:念のために書きますが、これは倫理的な理由だけで実名を選択した人がいることを否定するものではありません。純粋に合理的な理由でも実名を選択しうるのですから、実名であるということだけではその書き手が「倫理的に美しい」心根の持ち主であるとは立証できない、ということです。

注3:前回のエントリーの注3で書いたような事情から、厳密には「評価の低い匿名の書き手はやりたい放題が出来る可能性が相対的に高い」となります。匿名の書き手であれ、その匿名に十分な愛着を持っている場合(例え評価が低くとも)は、やりたい放題になる可能性は低くなります。

注4:念には念を入れて書きますが、実名だからといって泥仕合になるとは限りません。

注5:図を見ると分かるとおり、匿名の価値(灰色)は右に行くほど傾きがきつく、左に行くほど緩くなります。つまり、匿名の場合、評判が上がったときの得は大きく、一方で評判が下がったときの損は比較的小さいのです。一方、実名の場合は評判が上がっても下がっても損得の絶対値は変わりません。その意味で、匿名は評価の低下に対して耐性があると言える訳です。言うまでも無く、これは「最悪の場合トンズラすることも可能」という選択肢を反映したものです。(この項目のみ7月29日7時10分追記)

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Comments

つまりは有名(になることで利益を得る)人か文筆業の人くらいしか実名になる「合理的な」メリットはないということでしょうか。まあ炎上する人の大半は合理的ではないので解決策は無いのでしょう。
個人のブログに求められているのは、その人でしか知りえないようなトリビアだと思うので、単に友達がほしい人などはブログをはじめないほうが良いと忠告しています。某弁護士さんなども、法律のわかりにくいところをスッキリ紹介、なんてブログにしたら良いのになー。
馬車馬さんくらい有名になってしまうと、実名にしたとき最低でも週一くらいのペースで書き続けなければならなくなりそうです。もっと読みたい方もいるでしょうが、馬車馬さんのペースでいいので今後もよろしくお願いします。人はブログのみにて生きるものにあらず、ですからね。

Posted by: はりぼで | July 28, 2007 at 08:54 PM

上で「絶対に負けを認めず、相手の言葉には耳を貸さず、泥仕合になろうとも相手が疲れ果てるまで自分の意見を押し付け続ける」という戦略が望ましくなります、と仰る意味での「実名の書き手が参加すると議論の質が落ちる」は、昔fj→2chの移行の際に(逆の意味で)痛感しました。
研究者とかわりと知的水準の高めのいい大人が集まってんのに「こんな事も分からない奴は馬鹿だ」「馬鹿とはなんだ」「馬鹿という奴が馬鹿だ」「馬鹿を馬鹿と言って何が悪い」「そもそも馬鹿の定義は」以下無限ループ、とかそういう世界から一気になんか晴れ上がったような爽やかさを感じた(fjではROMでしたが・笑)

Posted by: き | July 28, 2007 at 10:33 PM

はりぼでさん、コメントありがとうございます。

匿名のままでもその評判は将来のために「貯蓄」することは出来るわけですから(次第に忘れ去られてしまうコストはかかりますが←ちなみに、これは上では没にした第4の要素です)、開業していたり物書きだったりして「今」実名を売る積極的な理由が無い限り、実名ブログを選ぶ意味は余り無いような気がしますね。

某弁護士については・・・「法律のTIPS」みたいなシブいブログなら評価もぶれないでしょうし、合理的な選択だと思うのですが・・・。あそこまで悪口に対してセンシティブなのに、わざわざ「政治宗教プロ野球」系の話題を選ぶ理由が良く分かりません。おっしゃるとおり、そこが某氏の「合理的ではない部分」なのかもしれませんね。非合理が悪いわけではありませんけど。

私のブログって有名なんでしょうかね?今でも場末ブログ気分満々で書いているのですが。正直、お金もらって書くのは「毎週更新」とかそういう義務がかかりそうでいやですねー。8月31日まで夏休み宿題に手をつけないタイプには向いてなさそうです(笑)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 29, 2007 at 06:19 PM

き さん、コメントありがとうございます。

私はパソコン暦は長いのですがネットワーク暦が浅いのでfjは少ししか知らないのですが、fjでは実名だったんですね。しかし、それは面白いエピソードです。リアルな世界でも、2,3人での議論は白熱するけど、大会場で相手の理屈を全否定するのは結構躊躇いますよね(アメリカ人とかインド人とか、そういうことをあまり気にしない人も多いですけど)。

大多数でわいわい(あまり議論の軸を絞らずに)議論をするには、リアルよりも匿名ネットのほうが良いのかもしれませんね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | July 29, 2007 at 06:29 PM

ご無沙汰です。もう活動中止されたのでは、と思っていたのですが、たまたまのぞいたらエントリーが更新されており、驚きました(笑)。カムバック歓迎です。
 ブログの匿名・実名、私の場合は実名がバレバレの匿名で、中途半端な状態で、無価値のオプション持っているようなもんですね。今後の方向性としてアイデアがないわけではないですが、まあしばらくは今のまま続けようと思います。
 エントリー更新、気紛れでも構いませんので、続けてください。楽しみにしております。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | August 08, 2007 at 09:58 PM

久しぶりの記事、面白かったです。今後も楽しみにしています。

実名がシグナリングの機能を果たすことはないでしょうか。情報の非対称性はかなり存在するため、対策として実名が大きな役割を果たすこともありえなくはないと思うのですが。

Posted by: AK13 | August 14, 2007 at 07:11 AM

本石町日記さん、コメントありがとうございます(リプライが遅れてごめんなさい)。いつまで書けるかは分からないのですが、ネタがあって時間が許すのであれば書いていこうと思っています。
どうも2週間おきに色々な些事の山が訪れていてなかなか次のエントリーがかけないのですが(シリーズ物って準備に時間がかかるもので。。。)

本石町日記さんは既に"実名の配当"を十分期待出来るだけの地位にいらっしゃるわけで、いつでももっと実名を押し出したブログに移行できそうな気もしますが、そうするとコメント欄の扱いとか、色々と複雑になりそうですよね。複雑になり過ぎるので書かなかったのですが、"実名は分かっているけど敢えてそこから切り離した別個の存在として書いている"という状態は、書き手と読手の間の"暗黙の了解"としてあり得るのだと思います。そうなると、本石町日記さんもまだ何らかのオプションを持ってらっしゃるのかもしれませんね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | August 20, 2007 at 11:38 PM

AK13さん、コメントありがとうございます。それとリプライが遅れてごめんなさい。

ご指摘の点は全く仰る通りだと思います。今回のエントリーでは、匿名の書き手の評判はどのようにして形成されるのか、という点を完全に捨象してしまっていますが、エントリーでも書いた通り読み手の側にエントリーの質を客観的に判断する能力がない場合、"実名で書いている=少なくとも意図的にウソはついていない"というシグナリングは存在すると考えるべきだと思います(有名人であれば、シグナリング効果は当然強まります)。

上では議論の質にだけ言及しましたが、昔書いたとおり、啓蒙的な文章においては、このようなシグナリング効果は大きな意味を持ってくるのだと思います。議論の場合は、書き手のブランドにかかわらず文章の質は読手が自力で判断できるものと仮定しました(=非対称情報が存在しない)。この場合は、シグナリング効果はあまり考えなくてもよいように思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | August 20, 2007 at 11:51 PM

どうもお久しぶりです。
うちのブログの場合はどうでしょうね。(苦笑)

僕の場合は、馬車馬さんからすれば合理的ではないかもしれないけど、1年前に雑誌に論文を掲載した時からは、誰でも調べれば僕の実名がわかる形になりました。(ブログ上に実名を載せているわけではないですが。)

なぜ実名がわかってもいいと判断したかと言うと、僕の場合、匿名のほうが書きづらいことが多いように感じたということですね。例えば以前何をやっていたかとかを隠そうとすると、これ以上書けない、ということがでてくる。また、議論で反論したくても、自分で抑えてしまうことがある。要は、語弊を恐れず言えば、匿名だと自分が議論の相手よりも「知りすぎていること」を隠さないといけなくなることがある、ということですね。実名化には、このやりにくさをなくしたいという部分がありましたね。

また、上のご指摘のように、実名がわかるようにすると、確かに「シグナリング効果」はあったように思います。実名化の後、掲示板の書き込みのレベルは以前より一定水準が保たれるようになったように感じますので。

Posted by: かみぽこ | August 21, 2007 at 02:34 AM

かみぽこさん、どうもご無沙汰しておりました。3日ほどブログをチェックしておりませんで、リプライが遅れました。ごめんなさい。

上でも指摘を頂きましたが、ブログの評価をどう高めるか、という点では実名の意義もあり得るのかもしれませんね。確かに、「これを書いてしまうと匿名じゃなくなっちゃうなぁ」と思うネタはあり、本来はそういう情報こそ価値が高かったりするのでしょうが、結局没にするということはありますね。

逆に、実名では書きにくいトピック(例えば、今日載せたエントリーのような)を自由に書ける、というメリットもあるわけで、一長一短ではないかと思います。その辺りの、評判を高めていくプロセスは色々と議論の余地がありそうです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | August 26, 2007 at 02:47 AM

モトケン先生のところからたどってまいりました。

いやぁ、面白いですね!!
僕自身この問題に関して確固たる意見を持っているわけではないのですが凄く面白いです。
こういう考えに遭うと、ネットさまよっていてよかったなと思えます。
ありがとうございました。

Posted by: 神田橋 宏治 | June 11, 2008 at 11:38 PM

神田橋さん、コメントありがとうございます。

お褒め頂き恐縮です。正直、書いた当時は「いくらなんでもマニアックすぎるかな」と思っていたのですが。

私自身も他のブログの読み手なのですが、世の中本当にいろんな考えがありますよね。この匿名の話はまた少し別の文脈から書いてみたいと思っています。

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