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人生という相場に向き合う方法

長い間ブログを放り出してすみません。私事の高波に押し流されていました。その間に和魂洋才シリーズのメモをなくしてしまい、それに凹んで更に更新が遅れたのですが。現在暇を見つけて少しずつ再構成中なのでもう少しお待ちください(色々なことを書く予定なので、どういう順番に書いていくのかが結構問題なんです。一部の説明は他の理解を前提にしていたりしますので)。

そこで、正月に書き損ねた話題を改めて書いてみようと思います。どこで誰が書いていた話題だったかは忘れましたが、「努力したって成功するとは限らないのだから、努力したってしょうがない」または「努力すれば何とかなるとか言う妄言にだまされるな」とか、大意そんな感じの発言をその当時頻繁に見たような気がします。当時はしょうもないことを、と思って読み流したわけですが、色々考えると結構難しい問題をはらんでいそうなので、少し書いてみようと思います。


人生のリスクとコスト

さて、努力してもしょうがないかどうかはともかく、「努力しても報われるとは限らない」のは紛うことなき真実だ。過去問を擦り切れるほどに解いて入試対策は万全と思っていたのに、その年から出題傾向が激変して半泣きで会場を去る小中学生。高1から予備校に通い、通学途中に歩きながらも単語カードをめくるほどに努力をしたのに、試験直前に体調を崩して浪人する高校生。せっかくいい大学に入ったのに、就職氷河期で意中の会社に入れなかった大学生。私生活を全てなげうって高い業績を上げ、ボーナスに期待をしていたら、会社がつぶれてボーナスどころか職を失う会社員。

幾ら努力を重ねたところで、運が無かったり、能力が無かったり(これも厳密には不運の一部)すれば、その努力は結実しない。なんで努力にこんなリスクが付きまとうんだよと思う人もいるかもしれない。努力した分だけ報われる社会がありうるなら、我々の人生はずっと楽になるはずなのだが、残念ながらこれは絶対にありえない。何故なら、努力とは「将来の(より大きな)幸せのために、今現在の幸せを我慢する」ことだからだ。将来を正確に予想することは何人たりとも叶わない以上、努力の結果にリスクが伴うのは当然のこと。これは揺るがしがたい絶対の真実といっても良いだろう。

ちなみに、この努力の定義は投資(貯蓄)の定義と全く同じものだ(経済学の教科書には必ず出てくる言葉だが、投資(貯蓄)とは、現在の消費を犠牲にして、将来の消費を増やす行為)。我々はお金の代わりに時間を投資するわけである。そして、投資において何が問題になるかといえば、可能な限り少ない資金で、可能な限り高いリターンを挙げること。しかも、リスクを出来るだけ抑えながら。

そして、投資の世界にハイリスクハイリターンの原則があるように、人生でもリスクを取らずして大きな成功を望むことは出来ない。色々な人の立志伝が面白いのは、彼らが皆人生を台無しにするようなリスクをかいくぐって成功をもぎ取ってきたからだ。ただし、人生という相場にはもうひとつ重要な要素がある。努力というやつだ。

我々が努力すればするほど、成功の確率は上がる。例え入試の当日に運悪く風邪を引いてしまっても、直前の模試で「合格確実」が出るほど勉強している人なら何とか合格できるだろう。仕事場で上司とそりが合わずとも、それまでにちゃんと努力を重ねてきた人であれば実力で上司を黙らせることができるかもしれない(少なくとも、上司を黙らせられる確率は上がる)。その意味で、我々が今必死に努力するのは、将来の成功確率を上げるための、云わばリスクヘッジのようなものだ。頑張って勉強して有名大学に行き、大学でも更に頑張って研究した人が、不景気のせいで就職浪人する可能性は低い。そもそも、世の中で「成功した」と認知されている人のほとんどが、普通の人よりも遥かに高いリスクに耐え、そしてその高いリスクを少しでも下げるために、ちょっと尋常ではない努力をし続けてきたのだということはもっと理解されていい。そこまでやって、更にそれなりの幸運に恵まれたものだけが「成功」を収めることが出来るのだ。

しかし、努力したところで全てのリスクを取り除くことは出来ない以上、我々の努力には限界がある。筆者だって明日頭上に花瓶が落ちてきてあっさり死ぬかもしれないし、そうすれば筆者が今までいかなる努力をしていようが全ては水の泡だ。もちろん、絶えず安全ヘルメットを被って仕事やら買い物やらに出かければ、その努力を払えば、リスクを下げることは出来る。だが筆者はそれをしない。その努力にかかるコスト(周囲の痛い視線やら、容易に予想可能な警官の職務質問やら)を考えると、どうにも割に合わないのだ。

つまり、努力というのはがむしゃらにすれば良いわけじゃない。努力にはコストがかかる。勉強している間はゲームも出来なければテレビも見られない。体を鍛えるには体を痛めつけなければいけない。ダイエットなら食欲を押さえつけなければならない。もしあなたにとって今日のオンラインゲームが、今日の体調が、今日の夕食が重要なら、努力をすべきではない。そこがあなたにとっての最適な努力の量なのだから。むしろ、今日自分が打ち込める何かがあることを誇るべきだろう。ただし、それによって将来成功する確率が下がることは覚悟すべきだ。リスクとコストは反比例する。努力しないことで確実に得られる今日の幸せと、努力することで得られる(可能性が上昇する)明日の幸せ。どちらを選ぶのも自分次第だ。


人生の選択に失敗はありえない

こうなると、努力しない理由として一番可能性が高そうなのは「努力したって成功の確率が上がらない」というケースだろう。これ自体が錯覚、ないしは努力をしないための言い訳では無いと仮定すると、これにはふたつのケースが考えられる。ひとつは、人生の選択肢それ自体が間違っている可能性。人間には向き不向きというものがあるし、どんな人間だろうが力を発揮しようが無いというどうしようもない職場も残念ながら存在する。そして、更に残念なことに自分の向き不向きというのはやってみなければ分からないし、どうしようもない職場は入ってみないと分からない。もしあなたがこの状況に陥っているなら、もう辞めるしかない。退職でも退学でも。その場で努力を重ねる理由は無い。時間の無駄である。ロスカットはお早めに。相場の鉄則だ。まぁ、余りにも頻繁にロスカットをする投資家はまず儲からないし、それは人生でも同じことなのだが、とりあえずここでは措いておく。

もうひとつのケースは、成功確率が上がらないのは単に努力が足りないか、または努力の方向が間違っているだけという可能性。または、単にタイミングが悪いだけで、我慢するだけで状況が改善される可能性もこちらに含めよう。この場合、あなたは辞めるべきではない。今居る場所に踏みとどまって更に頑張るべきだ。ちなみに、相場用語で言うとナンピンということになる。買った株が値崩れして損をこいても、その安値で更に購入して今後の相場上昇に賭けるという戦略だ。下げ相場で更にポジションを積み増すことになるので、胃壁も財布もそれなりに厚いことが要求される。筆者も人生相場で5年以上ナンピンを続けたことがあるが、結構胃にくるので素人にはお勧めしない。

ロスカットするか、ナンピンするか。どちらが正しいか、ということが問題なわけだが、そんなこと分かる訳が無い。自分の潜在能力がどれだけあるか? 今後の職場(または教室)環境がどう変わっていくか? それまで自分の体と心が耐えられるのか? これらの問いに正確に答えられる人間はこの世には居ない。どうしても答えがほしいなら、天国とかスピリチュアルとか、「あっちの世界」に問い合わせて頂きたい。どこぞの水晶玉ごときに自分の人生を委ねたくないなら、我々は手持ちの不完全な情報をもとに、無理やりでも答えを出すしかないのだ。

正しいかどうか分からない選択をするわけだから、我々はいつだって不安になる。あの時の選択は正しかったのか。今辛い思いをしているのは、あのときの選択を間違ったからではないのか。筆者自身を含め、人生の選択をしたことのある人間なら誰でも通る道なのだが、結論から言うと、この疑問には意味が無い。過去の選択が正しかったかどうか、確認する手段は存在しないからだ。あなたがきつい会社に残って頑張る道を選び、そして更に辛い思いをしたとする。では、会社を辞めておいた方がよかったのか?そうかもしれない。しかし、辞めた後でどこにも仕事が見つからなかったかもしれないし、新しい職場はもっと辛かったかもしれないのだ。選ばなかった自分の人生がどれだけ幸せかを知りようが無い以上、今の人生とどちらが良かったかなど、比較できるわけが無いではないか。

更に言うなら、過去の人生の選択を測るのは、今の自分の行動を無視しているという意味でも無意味である。最初に書いたように、我々は自分たちの将来を予想できない。自分がどんな選択をしようと、成功するかもしれないし、失敗するかもしれない。今日の成功は明日の成功を保証しない。我々は昨日下した人生の選択を正しいものにするために努力するのである。少なくとも筆者はそう思っている。そう考えた時に、過去の人生の選択が正しいか間違っているかという問いに意味があるのだろうか? 


救われない不運について

今まで人生の選択肢の話をしてきたわけだが、「選ぶべき選択肢それ自体が無い」というケースはある。不運にも事故に遭った人、病気にかかった人、皆人生の選択肢を縛られる。不運にも大学を卒業した頃に不景気で就職に失敗するケースでも、多分人生の選択肢は縛られる。中途採用がアメリカほど活発ではない日本では、不運にも自分の企業が倒産してしまえば、やはりその後の人生の選択肢は縛られるだろう。

上で散々強調したように、人生に完全な自業自得は(犯罪などの極端なケースを除いて)存在しない。どれだけ「正しい」選択をしてもうまくいかないときはうまくいかない。しかし、それで「不運は全てあきらめろ」となると、人生のリスクが余りにも高すぎて社会の効率が悪くなる。そこで編み出されたメカニズムが保険である。死んでしまうリスクには生命保険が、病気にかかるリスクには健康保険が、会社が突然倒産するリスクには失業保険がそれぞれ存在し、我々はこれらの保険で人生のリスクを軽減することで少しは人生設計という難事業を行えるわけである。

そして、それなら「就職時期に不景気」という不運だって保険が用意されてしかるべきだ、という意見は当然にありうる。しかし、生命保険が成立して不景気保険が成立しないのにはちゃんとしたわけがある。モラルハザードだ。

モラルハザードとは、例えば車両保険に加入した後、ドライバーが「保険に入ってるんだから少しくらい擦ったっていいや」と雑な運転をするようになり、最終的に保険会社が赤字になって保険契約それ自体が成立しえなくなることを言う。原則として、保険が成立するのはモラルハザードがないイベントに対してだけである。生命保険があるからといって「死んでもいいや」と思う人はあまりいないし、健康保険に入っているからといって「癌になっても保険があるからOK」と思う人もいない。本人の意思とイベントの発生確率に関係が無いから、これらの保険は成立するのである。

一方で、上で書いたように、我々の努力で人生の成功確率は変わる。つまり、「保険があるから頑張らなくてもいいよね」と思うことで人生の成功確率は下がり、実際に人生に行き詰まる人も増えてしまう。つまり、人生そのものについての保険はモラルハザードの問題があるので、保険が成立しないのである。言い方を変えると、努力した末に就職に失敗した人と、努力しないせいで失敗した人とを正確に分類することが不可能だから、保険が成立しないということだ。これが損害保険であれば、「もし今日事故を起こしたら明日から保険料は値上げね」と言うことで、モラルハザードをある程度回避できる。しかし、人生は「あなた人生に失敗したから次の人生では保険料は値上げするね」という訳には行かないのだ。この手のマクロな救済策がうまくいかない理由は他にもたくさんあるが、それは別エントリ「救われない不運について」を参照されたい。


選択肢が無い人の選択

では、極端な例として、「人生の選択肢が無く、そしてその発端が不景気であるために保険でも救済されない」不運な人はどうすればいいのだろうか。筆者としてはそもそも「選択肢が無い」という現状認識が間違っている可能性をまず疑うべきだと思うのだが、とりあえずここでは実際に選択肢がないと仮定しよう。その時の最適な「選択」とはなんだろうか?

どうあれ、生きていくためにはお金は必要である。仕事でそのお金を得ることが不可能だと仮定すると、ご近所からふんだくると強盗になる以上、ふんだくる対象はやはり政府ということになる。では、政府からの救済を待って今日は寝るべきだろうか? しかし、何もしなければそんな救済策が決まる可能性は非常に低いということは前掲の別エントリーで書いた。結局、政府からお金をふんだくるためには、その可能性を少しでも高めるためには、やはり努力するしかないのだ。人を集め、スポンサーを募り、そのためのパフォーマンスをする。政治を動かすには頭数がいる。就職氷河期世代だけでなく、もっと問題を一般化して(または、そう見せかけて)別の世代の注意を喚起してもいい。場合によっては、国会議事堂によじ登って旗を振ってみせる位のことはすべきかもしれない。

もちろん、最初に書いたように、そういう努力をしろなどと僭越なことをいうつもりは無い。どの程度の努力をすべきかは人によって違う。ただし、果報を寝て待つつもりなら、それによって果報が来る確率が下がることは覚悟すべきだ。結局どこまでいっても、リスクとコストの2択からは逃れられないのだから。


本日のまとめ

人生にはリスクがある。そのリスクを下げるために努力をする。どのくらい努力すべきかは人によって異なるので、他人が努力の多寡を測ることに意味は無い。ただし、努力しない結果としてのハイリスクな人生を引き受けるのもまた自分だけ。

世の中で成功した人の多くは並外れたリスクをとり、そして並外れた努力でそのリスクを薄めて、更に幾分の運に恵まれて成功を勝ち得ている。運だけで稼げるお金はたかが知れている。

将来のことは誰にも分からないし、自分が選ばなかった人生のその後も決して分からない。だから、人生の選択が正しかったかどうかは本人を含め誰にも、絶対に判断できない。

過去の人生の選択が正しかったかどうかを考えるのではなく、過去の選択を正しいものにすべく努力するべき(もし正しい選択にこだわるならば)。

政府によるマクロな救済を要求するという行為についても、結局努力が要求される - もし高い確率での成功を望むのならば。自ら動かないならば、マクロな救済が自分の手元に落ちてくる可能性はその分だけ低くなる。

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Comments

面白かったです。

この記事のリスクとコストについて、女性の視点で「結婚」という要素を交えると一体どうなるのだろうと、ふと興味と疑問がわきました。

Posted by: porori | March 03, 2008 at 02:13 AM

「人間は、運命という糸を織りなしていくことはできても、その糸を引きちぎることはできないのである。
ならば、絶望するしか術はないかとなると、そうでもないのだ。
運命が何を考えているかは誰にも分からないのだし、
どういうときに顔を出すかも分からないのだから運命が微笑むのは、誰にだって期待できることだからである。
それゆえいかに逆境に陥ろうとも、希望は捨ててはならないのである」byマキャベリ

人生の複雑系は誰しもが一度は考えることですよね。
信心深い人はは初めから試練や修行という形でリスクを肯定したりもしますが...
とても興味深かったです。これからもがんばってください。

Posted by: トリコーダー | March 18, 2008 at 08:15 PM

今の職業にたどり着くまでの転職人生を振り返らせるエントリーでした。私の場合、まず食うための職業選択に始まり、後悔や焦燥の思いに苛まれつつ、
打ち込める職業に出会えたのは「希望」を捨てなかったからかな、と思いました。
 ところで、「金融政策が成功するための努力」を考えてみたのですが、これは統計分析、ミクロ情報の収集、市場動向のヒアリング・分析などにひたすら打ち込み、不確実な金融経済の将来を必至に予測しながら、フォワードルッキングな金融政策を行う、ということでしょうか。
 竹中さんはインフレターゲットさえ導入すれば、日銀総裁の仕事は簡単だと言っているのですが…。どうなんでしょうね。

Posted by: 本石町日記 | March 19, 2008 at 10:44 PM

Pororiさん、コメントありがとうございます(リプライが遅れてごめんなさい)。

結婚して専業主婦(主夫)になるケースを考えると、自分ひとりで今の仕事を続けるよりもリスクが小さく、リターンの大きい収入源を持っていることが重要ですよね。そして、結婚生活が期待はずれであったときにロスカットするかナンピンするか、というのは、実に多くの方が悩む普遍的な問題であるように思います。どちらにせよ、その選択の結果は自分で負うしかないという一点だけは、絶対に変わらない原則なわけですけれども。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 25, 2008 at 09:26 AM

トリコーダーさん、コメントありがとうございます。

マキャベリはちゃんと読んだことがないのですが、人生についても語るような人だったんですね。少し興味が出てきました(積読本がまた一冊・・・)。

結局、直面したリスクに思い悩んでもなんら生産的ではありませんから、顕在化した不運は「試練」として受け入れ、その後の人生の改善に注力するというのはメンタルには結構健全な行為のような気がします。ある種、先人の知恵というか、ライフハックのようなものなのかもしれませんね。

励ましの言葉までいただき恐縮です。とりあえず書きたいことはいくつもあるので(正直、そろそろネタ切れになると思っていたのですが)、時間を見つけて書いていこうと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 25, 2008 at 09:31 AM

本石町日記さん、コメントありがとうございます。

ブログでご紹介いただいたにもかかわらず、コメント一つ残さずにごめんなさい。ちょうどあの時期から2ヶ月ほどものすごく忙しくなってしまい、ブログを開く気持ちすら萎えてしまっておりまして・・・。

私自身、長くもない社会人生活でいくつかの投資判断を迫られ、運良く今のポジションにいるわけですが、私にとっての魔法の言葉は「死ぬ気でやった努力は絶対に無駄にはならない」だったように思います。例え努力している当時に思い描いていた使い方でなくても、なんか使い道はあるだろ、と。改めてエントリーで起こすと、使い道は「ある」のではなく、その後の人生でそれを使う道を選んでいく、ということなのかもしれませんが。

確かに、金融政策も「正しい答えなどありえない状況で、それでも選択しなければならない」わけで、それをわきまえた上で統計と市場の分析に勤しんで少しでも成功の確率を上げるべく努力する、という点で人生と同種の意思決定があるわけですよね。難しいのは、その意思決定の結果に自分自身では責任を取れないという点で・・・それを「日銀の仕事は簡単でいいよな」となじることも出来るのでしょうが、自分の尻を自分でふけない分だけ、むしろやりづらいのではないかとも個人的には思えます。

インフレターゲットで日銀の仕事を説明するのは簡単になるかもしれませんね。そもそも、インフレターゲットとは理論的に「日銀の信じる最適なインフレ率」をマーケットにも信じてもらう(疑心暗鬼を取り除く)ためにのみ役に立つ政策ですから。アカウンタビリティの向上は間違いなく日銀の仕事を(中長期的には)楽にするはずです・・・

もちろん、それで仕事が終わるはずもないのですが。結局、期待インフレ率は全て推測しかできないわけですし、インフレターゲット理論で仮定される「マーケットは日銀の効用関数を知っている」ということも、現実にはありえません。インフレターゲットはあくまでも指標であって、日々の金融政策とは別に考えるべきものであろうと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 25, 2008 at 10:05 AM

久しぶりに覗きましたが、大変面白いテーマでした。
初めの一歩(ボクシング漫画)の
「努力した者が必ず成功する訳ではないが、成功した者は
すべからく努力している。」
という台詞を思い出しました。
私自身も就職難の時代に就職しましたので、色々考えさせられました。

今の民主党の与党の足を引っ張る努力と、昔の社会党の
なんとか与党と妥協点を探る努力とどちらが自分達の意見を実現させられるのだろうと考えたり。
(もっとも民主党に実現させたい意見など無いかもしれませんが)

Posted by: kyu | April 07, 2008 at 12:21 AM

kyuさん、コメントありがとうございます。

はじめの一歩とはまた懐かしい。まだ続いているんでしょうか。(5年間くらい読んでません)そのせりふは私も読んだことがあるような。

民主党については、半端に議席を得たせいで昔書いた「左翼の蛸壺」にものの見事にはまってしまっているように見えます。というか、小沢代表の行動に一貫性が全く見えないのが気になるのですが・・・もしかして本当に耄碌してるんでしょうか。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 10, 2008 at 08:34 AM

大学生です。
このエントリーを読んで、なぜ自分が他の学生より
勉強に多くの時間を費やし、努力しているのかを
うまく説明することが出来る様になりました。
これまで、「なぜ大学生なのに遊ばないの」
「なぜそんなに勉強するの」と質問されても
上手く答えられず、「将来のため」とだけ答えて
流してしまっていました。
今は「勉強に打ち込むことで、将来の選択肢と
成功する確率を上げている」のだと答えるように
しています。
素晴らしいエントリー、ありがとうございました。

Posted by: kaori | April 13, 2009 at 07:09 AM

kaoriさん、コメントありがとうございます。

このエントリーがpositiveな意味で「人の背中を押す」事が出来たことを嬉しく思っています。人の努力をマイルドに見下す風潮というのは昔から気になっていましたので。

告白すると、私自身、大学時代あまり勉強はしていませんでした。正確には、自分の好きな分野の勉強だけ集中的にやっていて、大学の成績自体は全く無視していました。一方で、満遍なく成績を上げる努力をする友人たちを半ば見下していた気持ちがなかったとは言えません。その後、留学を試みるに当たって、その手痛いしっぺ返しを食らう羽目になりましたが・・・(成績って大事です)。

その意味で、努力の大切さって後になってみないと分からないことはあるんだと思います(それ故に「なぜ勉強するの?」という質問が出てくる)。ひどい場合は、その大切さを学ぶ機会すら得られずに人生を終わる場合もあるわけで。努力しないと、それがなぜ必要なのかを知ることも出来ない、ということはままあります。

私もまだまだ招来への投資を必要とする身の上です。お互い頑張ってやっていきましょう。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 20, 2009 at 08:13 AM

団塊世代です。
素晴らしいブログですね。

何のために努力するか? 私の場合は「あいつは役に立たない。給料泥棒だ」と言われたくないというのが原点でした。給料もらってる分は働かなくちゃ、ということで決して楽しい努力ではありません。
その後、営業になりましたが、当時私の業界では出入り業者扱いをされることがありました。「なんでこんな扱いをされるんだ。俺たちはあんたのパートナーだろ」とは思いましたが、そんなことは口には出せません。

そこでその会社の業務について猛勉強をしました。
その会社はエレクトロニクスの会社でしたが、中央研究所の研究員が出て来ても、事業部の技術者が出てきても
対等の会話が出来るようになりました。
勉強のプロセスそのものは必ずしも楽しいものではありませんでしたが、そこまでやると相手の見る目が変わって来ますし、私の言うことにも真剣に耳を傾けてくれます。
自分の成長が実感できること、その結果としてビジネスの成果が出ること。これは快感です。
当時はどれだけ成果を出しても給与にはほとんど反映されませんでした。
しかし自分が成長していること、クライアントが真剣に
耳を傾けてくれること。その結果ビジネスの成果がでる
ことは何にもまして嬉しいことでした。。。。

しかしその後、成長しすぎて「こんなこと言ってもわかんねぇだろうなぁ」というレベルまで行ってしまうと
少し悲しくなりましたが。。。

要するに何が言いたいかというと、苦しい努力の後には
損得だけではない、努力した人間にしか分からない楽しい世界が待っていると言うことでです。

向き不向きはあるかも知れませんが自分で選んだ仕事なら言われなくても努力せよということです。
団塊オジさんの経験談です。


Posted by: Mr.Moonlight | June 12, 2009 at 08:18 PM

Mr.Moonlightさん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが遅れて申し訳ありません。仕事の山が立て続けに来ておりまして、どうにもブログに割く時間がとれませんでした。

私自身、そうしてある種仕事のマニアと化すことに喜びを見いだす口でありまして、おっしゃることはよく分かります。

ただし、そのような働き方には恐らく良い面と悪い面、または効率の良い面と悪い面が混在しており、そのどちらを強く感じるかは人それぞれ、会社それぞれであるとも思います。その意味で、マニアな道を追求し続けていられる私などは結構幸運なクチであるのかもしれません。そのあたりは「和魂と洋才と残業したい人々」で詳述しましたので、そちらも合わせてご覧頂ければと思います。

それと、一度これと決めた仕事は気合いを入れて頑張るべきですが、頑張った果てに「これは駄目だな」と思ったら、早いうちにあきらめるのも大切なことだと思います。人の気持ちも、周りの環境も、3年もあれば随分と変わるものです。ならば、3年前に自分がした選択に延々と縛られることはないのだと思います。私自身も最初の仕事にはかなり早い段階で見切りを付けているのですが、そうして選んだ今の人生には結構愛着を持っております。

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