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イスラエルのしっぺ返し戦略

The Economistの先週号と今週号の記事を読んでいて「うまいこと言うなぁ」と思ったのは、イスラエルの戦略をtit-for-tat戦略であると表現していた点だ。Tit-for-tat戦略というのは、何らかの交渉事において、「とりあえず最初は相手と協力を試み、相手に裏切られたらこちらも裏切り、相手が協力する限りはこちらも協力し続ける」という、ゲーム理論ではおなじみのしっぺ返し戦略の一種だ。単純な割に効果の高い戦略として知られている(注1)。

実のところ、これはイスラエルの「抑止力戦略」そのものだ。敵国から攻撃を受けたら、あらゆる手段を用いてでも、倍返し三倍返しで反撃する。それを学んだ敵国は「イスラエルを攻撃すると後が面倒だ」と、攻撃そのものを控えるようになる。(原則としてこれは自衛のための戦略であるという点に注意。)この観点から見れば、死者の数に著しい不均衡が生じるのは、もともとの戦略が企図したとおりであって驚くには当たらない、となる。「正義と不正義」の釣り合いを決めるのは死者の数ではなく、最初に「裏切った」側だ、というわけだ。

The Economistは、先週号の「Proportional to what? 何と釣り合ってるって?」で、以下のように書いている。『もししっぺ返し戦略の起点をハマスのロケット弾に求めるなら、イスラエルに自衛の権利があるとすべきだろう。もしこの起点をイスラエル建国当時(1948年)のパレスチナ占領、またはその時のパレスチナ人追放に求めるならば、パレスチナ人の抵抗にこそ正義があると言えるだろう。釣り合いがあろうが無かろうが、この紛争が解決するまで無辜の人々は殺され続ける。』

しっぺ返し戦略とその破綻

この戦略を採用したこと自体で、イスラエルが非難されるべきではないだろう。そもそも、我々が享受してきた「核による平和(攻撃してきたら核を打つぞ、という脅しが効いている状態)」というのはこのしっぺ返し戦略の恩恵なのだ。

しかし、「核による平和」と比べ、イスラエルのしっぺ返し戦略はこうも非効率に見えるのはなぜだろうか? 特に事実上の敗北を喫したヒズボラとの第2次レバノン戦争、2006年のガザ侵攻、そして2009年のガザ再侵攻と、イスラエルの戦争抑止力に翳りがみられることは間違いない。キューバ危機を乗り越えつつ、米ソの直接対決を防ぎきった核による平和と、紛争の絶えないイスラエルの抑止力戦略は何が違うのだろうか。これを区別するためには、もう少し詳しくしっぺ返し戦略を解説する必要がありそうだ。

しっぺ返し戦略は、2つのパラメータでその性格が決まる。ひとつは、しっぺ返しを始めるまでにどれだけ耐えるか。そしてもうひとつが、どれだけ激しくしっぺ返しを行うか。考えられる組み合わせは2つ。(a) ぎりぎりまで我慢するが、始めたらとことんやるという戦略。または、(b) 攻撃を受けたらその都度それなりに反撃するという戦略。「滅多に反撃しないが、反撃するときもあくまで控えめに」というのは戦略としては成立しない。敵に舐められるだけだからだ。

核による平和とは、ぎりぎりまで反撃しない代わりに、反撃すると決めたら人類が絶滅するまでやるという、(a)のかなり極端な戦略だ。これによって米ソは直接戦闘をすることが出来なくなり、各地で小規模な代理戦争が起こることになった。実は、理論上この「ぎりぎりまで我慢して、しっぺ返しは徹底的に」という戦略は、中途半端なしっぺ返しを繰り返すよりも効率がよいことが知られている(注2)。徹底的なしっぺ返し(核戦争)を各国が恐れることで、結局紛争が回避され、徹底的なしっぺ返しは現実には起こらないからだ。その点、しっぺ返しが中途半端だと、どうしても足元を見られて紛争が起こりやすくなる。無駄な紛争→しっぺ返しの繰り返しがある分だけ、後者は効率が悪いのだ。最悪の場合、しっぺ返し→それに対するしっぺ返し→またそれに対するしっぺ返し・・・と、しっぺ返しの無限連鎖が発生してしまう。The Economistは今のパレスチナの現状をこれに例えたわけだ。

では、イスラエルも非公式ながら核保有国なわけだし、「核による平和」戦略をとればいいじゃないかと思うわけだが、これは実際かなり難しい。イスラエルにヨルダン川西岸とガザ、シリアにヒズボラ、それにイランを同時に叩くだけの戦略核を用意できるのかどうか。ガザに核を落とせばガザ地区は壊滅できるとしても、それがハマスの壊滅に直結するのかどうか。それ以前に、そんな戦略をアメリカが許すかどうか。そして、しっぺ返しの規模が限定されてしまうと、ちょっとした挑発に対しても律儀に倍返しを行っていくことで、イスラエルへの攻撃の無意味さを知らしめるしか無くなってしまう。そして、想像上の「核戦争の恐怖」と比べ、「倍返しによる恐怖」は、敵の兵士国民の死体を積み上げるという、人道上言い訳の効かない生々しいものにならざるを得ない

それでも、対国家戦ではこの戦略は有効に機能した。中東戦争以降、犬猿の仲のシリアも含め、イスラエルとアラブ諸国の間には戦争は起こっていない(一応第1次レバノン戦争があるが、あの当時レバノンは既に国家の体を成していなかった)。ところが、ヒズボラやハマスはこのイスラエルのしっぺ返し戦略を逆に利用する戦略を取るようになる。ちょっとの挑発に対してもイスラエルが猛反撃を加えてくることは明らかなのだから、適当に挑発を加えて市街戦に引きずり込み、無辜の自国民(子供が特に望ましい)を殺害させる。こうして、国際社会にイスラエルの非道さと、悪魔のイスラエルに立ち向かう勇敢なる我らが組織をアピールし、同情と資金と武器を集めるわけである。ハマス自身、ファタハとの内戦でファタハ高官の息子3人(全員小学生)を蜂の巣にしたり、やりたい放題やっているのだが、そんなことを気に病んでいては悪の巨魁たるイスラエルとは戦えないのである(注3)。

通常の国家であれば、このような究極の焦土戦術は政治的に不可能だ。国家の因って立つ基盤は国民にある。国民が疲弊すれば国家経営は立ちゆかない。しかし、ヒズボラやハマスといった政治組織は、そういうしがらみがあまりない。昔PLOがやったように、都合が悪くなったらあちらこちらの国を渡り歩いて捲土重来を図ればよいのである。このような組織に対して猛反撃を加えても、将来の抑止には繋がらない。しっぺ返しのコスト(自国兵士の損失や国際社会の非難)に比べ、得られるものはあまりにも少ないのだ。

こう考えると、建国以来のイスラエルの基本戦略である「抑止力戦略」または「しっぺ返し戦略」は、修正ないしは転換をすべき時期に来ていると言えるだろう。ニュースを乱読する限り、イスラエルはまだこの戦略に強いこだわりがあるようだ。過去の鮮やかな成功体験がまだ記憶に新しいのだろうし、無理もないとは言える。だが、しっぺ返し戦略が通用する相手とそうでない相手が居ると言うことは、そろそろ自覚するべきではないかと思う。


流血を止めるいくつかの対策

以上のように状況を整理すると、流血を止めるやり方はいくつか考えられる。まず、比較的短期で効果が見込めるのは、今回の惨事の責任をハマスに問い、然るべき制裁を加えること。ハマスがイスラエルを挑発する最大の理由はそれによって国際社会からの非難を引き出し、イスラエルに対する立場を改善することにあるのだから、その動機を消し去ってしまえば、イスラエルのしっぺ返し戦略は効果を回復してパレスチナは幾ばくかの安定を取り戻せるはずである。理不尽なほどにイスラエルに有利なのが問題点だが、「どちらの国が正しいかどうかなんて関係ない、とにかく流血を止めろ」とおっしゃる方にはお勧めの策である。

もうひとつは、イスラエルが両占領地から撤退し、その後の治安が国連軍にゆだねられること。人手不足のイスラエルがパレスチナの失業者を吸収することで、しっぺ返し戦略に頼らずに「パレスチナはイスラエル抜きには経済的に立ちゆかない(逆も同じ)」状況を作り出す。中長期的にはこちらの方が望ましいと思うが、短期的にはどう考えても実行できそうにないのが難点。イスラエルではリクードがパレスチナ国家など認めないと叫び、ハマスもイスラエルを国家として認めていない。しかもこの両派はそれなりの国民の支持を集めている。このような状況で突然両者に融和しろと言って、はいそうしますと行くなら苦労はないのである。どうしても、と言うなら国連軍に強大な戦力を与えて、両者を徹底的に取り締まるしかない。そして、その手のアプローチがうまくいかないことを国連はガリ総長の時代に身に染みて知っている。それでも、中長期的には、イスラエルはこの方向で戦略を進めていく以外に選択肢はないと思われる。そもそも、これはオルメルト首相が主張している戦略なのである。むしろ議論すべきは、そこへの今後数十年のロードマップをどう描くかと言うことだろうが、正直筆者にはアイデアがない。実務的な対症療法の繰り返しで凌いでいくしかないのかもしれない。


本日のまとめ

イスラエルの抑止力戦略はある種のしっぺ返し戦略であり、受けた被害を倍にして返すという「非対称」戦は、十分に合理的である。

ただし、ハマスやヒズボラは倍返しの戦略を逆手にとってある種の焦土戦術を実行し、イスラエルのしっぺ返し戦略を無効化した(自国民を犠牲にして)。その意味では、彼らも十分に合理的。

現状の解決策としては、短期的にはハマスに対する非難と制裁、長期的にはイスラエルの占領地からの完全撤退とそれに伴う融和策くらいしか思いつかない(それすら自信はない)。


前回のエントリーを挙げた後、色々と気になっていくつかの新聞記事やブログを読んだのだが、個人的に一番面白かったのはこちらの文章だ。筆者としては、ただ非人道的行為を批判するだけの記事より、こういう記事をもっと多く読んでみたい気がする。また、The Economistの今週号の巻頭記事もお勧めしたい。


付録:パレスチナを取り巻く各国の状況について

ついでなので、最近のパレスチナに関わる国々の戦略環境をざっとまとめておきたい。


ハマス

歴史の長いパレスチナの強硬派グループ。イスラエルを国家として認めておらず、オスロ合意にも強硬に反対し続けていた。ファタハとの血みどろの内戦の果てにガザを占拠(ファタハとは未だに和解の糸口すらつかめない状況:ハマスだけが悪いわけではないが)。以降イスラエルの封鎖が強化されると、イスラエルの基地へトンネルを掘って兵士一人を拉致。2006年のガザ侵攻を招く。一方で内政能力が皆無だったガザ自治政府に代わってガザの秩序を回復させている(The Economistの表現では、「鉄拳をもって」)。その後の経済封鎖でも暴動は起きなかったようであり、内政能力への評価は高く、2005年の選挙ではファタハに勝利している。スンニ派の原理主義者集団だが、現在友好関係にあるのはイラン、ヒズボラ、それにシリアと非スンニ派が多い。ちなみにアルカイダからの支持声明もあったのだが、ハマスにとってありがた迷惑だったかどうかは知らない。アラブ諸国はファタハ支持に流れたため、孤立を深めているのが実情。

ファタハ

PLO以来の大派閥。昔から汚職やら強権政治やらの噂が絶えないところで、外交・内政能力については評価が低い。ハマスと違って世俗主義的なので、イスラエルとの関係は良好。というか、アラファト存命時から強硬意見で指導部を突き上げてきたハマスが居なくなったことで、組織としては安定した。今回のガザ侵攻でも、非難声明を出した後は静観を決め込んでいる。というか、ハマスの勢力が削られること自体はファタハにとっては願ったりかなったりの事態なのである。

エジプト

ハマスは元々エジプトの第1野党で原理主義者集団のムスリム同胞団の軍事部門として誕生しているので、エジプト政府がハマスに対しては好意的であろうはずがない。かといって、イスラエルに壊滅させられたハマスの残党がエジプトに流れ込むという事態も避けたいので、とりあえずハマスがガザに押し込められている今の状況は結構都合がいいのではないかと思われる。そんなわけでイスラエルのガザ侵攻も黙認し、イスラエルとハマスの仲介役として積極的に行動。

ヨルダン

国民の7割がパレスチナ人(うち半数は中東戦争後に難民として流入)というお国柄なので、昔からパレスチナ問題に振り回され続ける不幸な国。亡命してきたPLOにやりたい放題引っかき回された後、ぶち切れたフセイン国王がPLOを武力で追放。これが失敗していれば、レバノンのように国の半分をPLOに乗っ取られていたに違いない(PLOはその後レバノンへ向かい、彼の地の不安定化に一役買った)。その後重荷でしかないヨルダン川西岸地帯の領有権を放棄し、以後パレスチナ・イスラエル双方と等距離外交を展開している。

イラン

ファタハと並び、今回のガザ侵攻でもっとも得をした国。イスラエルのイラン核施設爆撃計画がどれだけ進行していたのかは知らないが、今回の侵攻で計画が大きく遅れたことは間違いない。ついでに国際社会の非難もそらすことに成功。貴重な時間を稼いでいる。

シリア

不倶戴天の敵のそのまた敵であるハマスやヒズボラには過去色々と援助をしてきているが、ハマスの母体ムスリム同胞団には昔首都で散々テロ活動を行われた経緯もあったりする。北朝鮮や旧イラクとも関係が深く、正直中東でも孤立した存在。昨年仏大統領サルコジの仲介でレバノンと国交正常化への道筋をつけ、今後の路線変更が期待されている。今回のガザ侵攻では、逆にサルコジからハマスの懐柔を頼まれているのだが、成果が上がっているという話は聞かない。

ヒズボラ

南レバノンを占拠し、事実上独立している。レバノンの情勢が不安定を極めているため、たびたびそれに乗じてベイルートを攻撃したりしている。現在はアラブ諸国の調停を受け入れてレバノンの挙国一致体制の一部を担っている。本来であれば今こそ北からイスラエルに砲撃を加えて、イスラエルに二正面作戦を強いるべきタイミングだと思うのだが、申し訳のような砲撃を加えた後は沈黙。「2006年のレバノン侵攻の痛手は実は大きかったのでは」などと、今頃になって言われはじめているが、単にレバノン内部のもめ事で忙しいだけかもしれない。


(注1)厳密には、TFT戦略と、一般的なしっぺ返し戦略(trigger strategy)とは別物だが、以下では特に区別せずに議論を進める。

(注2)もちろん、ゲームの条件によるのだが。ついでに書くと、しっぺ返し戦略よりも効率の良い戦略の存在もゲーム理論では研究されているが、ここでの議論には応用できないので特に触れない。興味のある方は適宜テキストを参照されたい(pairwise full-rankあたり)。

(注3)念のために書くと、ファタハだってハマスに対して似たようなことをやっている。ハマスが一方的に悪いわけではない。

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Comments

中東情勢がよく理解できた 新聞にこのような記事が出れば 良いのだが どうして出さないのかだろうか

Posted by: kai3907 | January 16, 2009 at 02:05 PM

おひしぶりです。

イスラエルの方法が非効率に見えるのはハマスという強盗が目の前にいるのに捕まえられないからでしょう。ハマスとは何者かと言えば現地のイスラム教徒です。まさかイスラム教徒を全員殺すわけにもいきません、またガザを恒久占領にしてもコストがかかりすぎますし、ガザから逃げた連中がレバノン、シリア、ヨルダンを根城にテロをまたやるでしょう。ちょうど日本が朝鮮の次は満州、満州の次はモンゴルという前進主義に陥ったのと同じ道です。

イスラム教徒というのは基本的にアッラーがどうしたとか古代の聖者がどうしたで行動するんですね。宗教改革も啓蒙主義も自由も平等もなく、現代人にとっては邪教でしかありません。ハマスは俺正義で毒ガスをまくオウムの連中と五十歩百歩だと義務教育で教えないとだめでしょう。

Posted by: SLEEP | January 18, 2009 at 08:44 PM

kai3907さん、コメントありがとうございます。

その辺りは私も色々と思うところはありまして、昔色々書きました。
http://workhorse.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2004/09/post_1.html
http://workhorse.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2004/09/post_2.html
http://workhorse.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2005/09/post_66e1.html
http://workhorse.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2005/10/post_6966.html
この辺りで書きましたので、こちらもご覧頂ければと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 20, 2009 at 09:03 AM

SLEEPさん、コメントありがとうございます。

日本軍と同じ前進主義に陥ったというのは面白いですね。まぁ、そうできるところまでガザ住民の心をつかんだハマスの手腕(含内政能力)は大したものだと思います。ファタハがひどすぎるんですが。

イスラム教徒もかなりぴんきりで、私の知り合いは皆普通なんですが(豚肉は食べないですけど)、原理主義者は手に負えないというのは彼らも言っていました。まぁ、これまたイスラエルの急進右派も似たようなものなんですが・・・。泣けてくる話です。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | January 20, 2009 at 10:25 AM

イスラエル或いは欧米の急進右派とイスラムのそれは同一視できないでしょう。法王が何か言っても戦争にはなりませんよね。また常に停戦規約を破るのはイスラム側なんですね。ヒトラーやスターリンに言わせれば国際条約というのはブルジョアのお遊びですが、イスラム教徒にとってはユダヤやキリスト教徒の戯言、或いはアラーが全てなんでしょう。トンカツや飲酒、人殺しまで結局は自分の心に問うしかないんであって、アラーに決めてもらう必要はないと思いますけどね。

バルフォア宣言を勘違いしてるバカは多いんですが、エコノミストの中にもそんなのがいるんですね。

Posted by: SLEEP | January 22, 2009 at 08:05 PM

スゴい!馬車馬さんが生きてた!

学生時代から、興味深く拝見しています。
これからも頑張って下さい!

Posted by: ヒウチ | January 23, 2009 at 07:13 PM

イスラエルをあまり追い詰めると昔のテロ戦略にもどりそうなんでどうしてもイスラエル寄りになってしまいますね。


イスラエルのえげつなさはハマスの比では
ない・・・・。
両国の経済が潤おってからでないとどんなプラン
も失敗しそうなきがしますね。

Posted by: とおりすがり | January 29, 2009 at 02:00 AM

かんぽの宿について、郵貯民営化の記事みたいに、馬車馬さんの意見を見てみたいです。

Posted by: 読者 | January 31, 2009 at 06:50 PM

大変参考になります。

イスラエル問題はやはり、早期にイスラエルの国家を確立させるべきと思います。

戦後大イスラエル構想で今の10倍ぐらいの地域をイスラエル国家にする構想がありましたが、今はかなり小さな国家です。

ユダヤ人同士で構想の違いがあるようです。
イスラエル内部の違いだけではなく。

Posted by: 山形 哲 | February 01, 2009 at 10:18 AM

SLEEPさん、コメントありがとうございます。

欧米はともかく、中東戦争前のユダヤ人急進右派の行動は目に余るものがありました。テロから虐殺から、やりたい放題でしたから。

私にはああいう戒律の厳しい宗教を信じる人の気持ちはイマイチ理解できないので(豚肉に限らず、肉は食べないのが普通。赤身の魚も駄目)、特にコメントはしようがないです。「日本人は他人が大切に作った米にも神を感じるし、だから他人が敬意を抱くものには自分も敬意を表するんだ」と言ったら妙に感心されましたが。

バルフォア宣言ですが、日本のウィキペディアの指摘の通りイギリスが厳密に二枚舌であったとは言えないわけですが、前後の経緯、特にカーゾン卿の発言などをみていると、やはり二枚舌外交の誹りは免れ得ないと思います。騙された方が悪いと言えばその通りなのですが。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 02, 2009 at 04:11 AM

ヒウチさん、コメントありがとうございます。

すみません、更新が飛び飛びになってしまって・・・。ここ数年、色々と人生の山がぼこぼこありまして。気を抜いていると谷に落ちそうです(笑)。

書きたいことはいくつもあるので、そのうち書いていこうと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 02, 2009 at 04:18 AM

とおりすがりさん、コメントありがとうございます。

まぁ、イグルンだのレヒだののやり口は碌なものではありませんでしたからね・・・(イギリスでのテロ行為にしても、パレスチナでの虐殺にしても)。ただ、ハマスの自爆テロやら、小学校の校門前で小学生3人を蜂の巣にするやら、これについてはどっちもどっちとしか言いようがありません。

経済状況が好転するのは重要ですが、問題なのは治安が回復しない限りそれは望めないというトートロジーが存在することだと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 02, 2009 at 04:28 AM

読者さん、コメントありがとうございます。

かんぽの宿の件、揉めてるみたいですねぇ。今のところこう「琴線」に触れるものがないのですが、何か思いついたら書いてみようと思います(財投関連は一応書いてしまいましたし)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 02, 2009 at 04:31 AM

山形 哲さん、コメントありがとうございます。

とりあえず、現時点での落とし所はキャンプデービッドでバラク首相が出した案に近い「ヨルダン川西岸地帯とガザを返還、ただし入植地などについては今後10年をかけて返還する。エルサレムは共同統治」辺りでは無いかと思います。とりあえず、国境線を画定させないことには話が始まらないというのはおっしゃるとおりだと思います。

イスラエルの拡張主義は30年前はともかく、現在はそこまで現実的な案として語られることはないようですね。隣のヨルダンは親米国ですし。右派が政権を取って以来、イスラエルと在外ユダヤ人にははっきりとした溝が出来たらしいことはあちこちから指摘がありました。まぁ、今月リクードが政権を取ったらどうなるかは分かりませんが・・・。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | February 02, 2009 at 04:39 AM

はじめて、こちらのブログを拝見しましたが、すごい方がいるものですね。こんなにも明晰な知性を文章から感じたのは久しぶりです。

戦争は、ついにわたしたちの生活から姿を消しませんね。命を奪うのでなければ、金を奪い、金を奪うのでなければ、心を奪う。すごく残酷な現実です。べつに、特別に悲しむことでもないですが。

Posted by: jidkrmt | February 11, 2009 at 03:17 PM

jidkrmtさん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが大きく遅れてごめんなさい。ここ数週間ブログを開いていませんでした・・・。

お褒めの言葉を頂き恐縮です。ある種の生存競争としての闘争は今後も無くなりはしないのだと思います。ただし、世の中には奪うための戦争というより、単に互いの行き違いが増幅されて、「相手が自分の大切なものを奪おうとしている」と互いが思い込んだ果ての自称防衛戦争というべきものも多いような気がします。これらは恐らく防ごうと思えば防げた戦争で、そこにこそ国際政治の役割があるのではないかと思います。

そのうち書くつもりですが、パレスチナ紛争も当初の生存競争が、Benny Morisの言葉を借りれば「イスラエルの拡大主義とアラブ諸国の不寛容」が、本来は1970年代に収束し得た戦争をここまでこじらせてしまったのかな、と思っています。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | March 19, 2009 at 10:15 AM

麻生総理の「平和と繁栄の回廊構想」はこの地域に多少なりの良い影響を与えられるんでしょうか。

http://palestine-heiwa.org/feature/oda/

Posted by: august | May 22, 2009 at 03:14 AM

augustさん、コメントありがとうございます。

短期の外交イシューとして考えるならば、そもそも軍事力(およびそれを行使する覚悟)を欠く日本には、彼の地のこじれにこじれた関係(イスラエルとパレスチナの二国間関係ではなく、その周辺国の関係を含む)をどうこうできる能力はないと思います。超長期的には、日本が彼の地にお金を落とし、インフラを整備することは有益であろうと思います。そして、その際にパレスチナ自治政府を支援するのも、現状においては現実的な選択肢ではないでしょうか。頂いたリンク先ではその点が非難されていますけれども。

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