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奨学金の最適デザイン

昨今の―とは言え、気分的には20年近く続いている―不景気で、奨学金の返済に支障を来している人が増えているということであります。

教育というのはその後の人生で重要な意味を持つのは明らかです。そして、機会の平等という観点から言って、親の所得が低い人たちにも平等に高等教育を受けるチャンスが与えられるべきであり、そのためには奨学金の果たす社会的役割は大きいということを否定する人は少ないでしょう。この奨学金の返済負担が大きすぎるとすれば、今後奨学金の利用に二の足を踏む人も増えてくるでしょう。それを考えると、「生活がきついなら返済は免除されるべき」「もっと給費の奨学金を増やせ」という意見は、間違いなく「正しい」と言えるでしょう。

さて、世の中は正義の主張で溢れています。親に問題のある子供はもっと積極的に保護されるべきだ。科学技術への投資にカネを惜しむべきではない。先天的にハンデを抱える人たちへのケアを充実させるべき。ホームレスの人にも十分な衣食住を保証すべきである。貧乏であれ最高の医療サービスが提供されねばならない。義務教育はもっと少人数教育を行うべきであり、失業者にはより高度な職業訓練が施されるべきであり、離島であっても都会と同様の通信・医療・交通サービスが保証されるべきで英語教育は英語教授法を専攻したネイティブを1万人雇ってくるべきでスパコンは世界一であるべきで朝のラッシュ時でも乗車率は200%以下が保証されるべきなのであります。

これらはどれも全く正しい主張です。全く世の中には不正義が多すぎる。悲憤慷慨の余り革命家にでも転職する人が出そうな勢いです。しかし、これら絶対不可侵を誇る正義の声の数々は、現実にはたった一文字に跳ね返されてその勢いを失うのが常であります。つまり、「金」。

あらゆる慈善事業には金がかかります。どんなに崇高な思想を抱いていたとしても、金がなければ救えるのは自分だけです。福祉活動を行う多くの団体にとって、寄付金を募ったり、政府からの援助を獲得したりすることはきわめて重要な仕事です。ホームページ一つ作るのにも気を遣いますし、体力のあるメンバーは市民マラソンなどで宣伝する必要があるでしょう。

そして、その時にもっとも大切な、心を配るべきポイントは「スポンサーにどうアプローチするのか」という、ごく当たり前のことです。スポンサーを説得できなければ、どんな正義も他人には届かないのです。そう考えると、この手の議論をする際にスポンサーの事情と意向を無視するのは、最大限好意的に書いても片手落ちの誹りを免れないでしょう。

xxx

さて、ではこの奨学金の一件でスポンサー候補に挙がるのは誰でしょうか。アメリカであれば金持ちの篤志家を勘定に入れることが出来ますが(とは言え、この手の奨学金は「岩手県出身で名字が本郷であること」みたいなオモシロ条件がついていることがあったりする)、日本ではやはり納税者と大学がメインのスポンサーと言えるでしょう。

つまり、この奨学金問題を語る上では、2種類の利害関係者の問題を同時に考える必要があります。一つは納税者と大学の事情。もうひとつが、もちろん、奨学金受給者とそれを狙う人たち。よって、最適奨学金デザインの達成目標は、
・親の所得が足りずに高等教育を受けられない子供たちにそのチャンスを与える
・彼らに学資を提供することが、スポンサーにとって長期的には利益になることを示す
の2点と言うことになります。当面、奨学金は貸費(ローン)だけを考慮します。

まず最初に抑えておかなければならない点は、大学教育というのは人生の中でもかなりリスキーな投資であると言うことです。成功すれば大卒の肩書きをひっさげて高給取りへの道が開かれます。しかし失敗すれば、4年の時間と学費をドブに捨てることになります。「そもそもそんなリスクがあることがおかしい」という意見は無意味なので考慮しません。むしろ、この程度の小さなリスクで済んでいることを先祖に感謝すべきでしょう。

この投資リスクは、学生にとってのみ問題なわけではありません。スポンサーにとって、奨学金は若者の将来に対する投資です。成功すればわずかな利子と税収増(納税者の場合)、そして評判(大学の場合)が得られますが、失敗すれば利子どころか元本まで丸損に終わる可能性があるのです。

そして、不景気のせいでこの投資の収益率が下がって来つつある(=失敗確率が上昇)というのは、学生とスポンサー双方にとって由々しき問題です。スポンサーは投資意欲を失い、学生は進学意欲を失い、結果その双方が長期的にはじり貧に陥っていくことになるのですから。放置すべきではない問題なのは確かです。

xxx

では、解決策を思案していきましょう。まず学生サイドの事情として、大学教育という投資に失敗すると返済で首が回らなくなってドツボにはまる恐れがある、という問題があります(リンク先の例はちょっと極端な気がしますが)。これを解決するには、所得が足りない場合は借金を棒引きにしたり、支払を猶予したり(これも広義には借金の棒引きと同じ)する必要がありますが、これだけではスポンサーが参ってしまいます。現状、まじめに確実に返済されることを前提に運営しているのですから。よって、このアイデアは単体では現実性がありません。

そこで出てきた面白いアイデアが、「ならば、卒業した後成功している学生からはその分多めに取り立てればいいじゃないか」というものです。これは筆者のアイデアではなく、イギリス政府のアイデアなのですが。

もともとの話は、連立与党の一角である自民党が「大学の無料化」を公約に掲げたところから始まっています。野党でいる間は気楽に正義を語っていられた彼らも、いざ政権を担う段になれば「金」という現実に向き合わざるを得ません。そこで出てきたアイデアが、「学費はタダだが学位は買い取り(graduate tax)」、「投資銀行などで高給取りになった卒業生は割り増しで学費を払う」「学費を在学中に支払うのではなく、一生涯にわたって所得の1%を大学に支払続ける」というわけです(注)。

この3番目のアイデアは、奨学金を債券投資から株式投資に変えるがごときインパクトを持ちます。現在の奨学ローンは返済額が固定されていて、スポンサーとしては直接の儲けは高が知れています(間接的に評判や将来税収増は得られる)。その代わり返済を怠るとペナルティが課せられて、損も余りでない仕組みになっているわけです。これを、「所得の低い卒業生には積極的に棒引きを許し、成功している学生からは多く取り立てる」仕組みに変えると、最悪投資した金を全て失うが、優秀な学生が多ければ儲けも増えるという、ハイリスクハイリターンな、株投資のごとき奨学金制度が出来上がります。ちなみに、給費型の奨学金は、ある意味でこの「株投資型奨学金」の非常に極端な一例と言えます。

xxx

実に面白いアイデアだと思うのですが、当然、この仕組みにも問題はあります。何しろハイリスク投資ですから、スポンサーは投資に当たって慎重にならざるを得ません。もし奨学生の8割が「失敗」した場合、残りの2割の卒業生に5倍の返済額を割り当てることは不可能だからです。少なくとも収支がとんとんになるよう、学生は厳選する必要が出てきます。

そもそも、少なくとも日本においては、大学を卒業したからと言って所得は大して増えません。労働政策研究・研修機構の統計によれば、高卒の生涯賃金は2億8000万円なのに対し、大卒のそれは3億1000万。大卒の方が失業率がぐっと低いことを考慮に入れても、生涯賃金の差は1割程度です。3000万円という金額自体は個々人にとっては十分大きな額ではありますが(但し、現在割引価値に換算すると半減する点に注意)、スポンサーサイドからしてみると、優秀な学生を引き当てても利益は株ほどには増えないことを意味します。となれば、損をしない方策は十分に練る必要があるわけです。

そこで当然考慮の対象となるのが、奨学生が合格した大学。いわゆる一流大学を卒業すれば、平均的には高い年収を得られるようになるはずだというのは、ごく普通の考えと言えるでしょう。信頼性は不明ですが、適当に見つけたこちらのデータでは、ランキング1位と100位で年収が2割以上違っています。つまり、株投資型奨学金では、卒業生の就職実績の高い「一流校」の合格者に資金の大半が分配されることになります。リスクの大きさから言って、資金規模それ自体も小さくならざるを得ないでしょう。

こう考えると、従来型の奨学ローンにもメリットがあることが分かります。「卒業後どういう状況になるにせよ、内臓を売ってでも必ず取り立ててやる」というポリシーで運用される奨学金では、奨学生を選別する必要がありません。どの大学に進学するにせよ、学ぶ意志(厳密には、学ぶ意志ではなく進学する意志しか確認できませんが)さえあれば奨学金を用意することが出来るのです。

これらから得られる結論は、「支給時に厳しい奨学金は返済時に優しくなれる。逆もまた然り」というものです。この2種類の奨学金を両建てで使う場合、良い大学に受かった学生は有利な株投資型奨学金を享受し、そうでない学生は従来型のローンを活用するか、進学をあきらめることになります。ただし、少子化が進む日本では、資金規模が限定されたとしても株式型の奨学金である程度は運営していけるのかも知れません。

「ふざけるな、それじゃ教育投資に『失敗』する可能性の高い学生達は依然として厳しい取り立てを受けることになる。問題が全然解決して無いじゃないか」と思った人には、これからやるべき事があります。しこたま金を稼いで、その金を奨学金に寄付すること。スポンサーに損をさせず、学生からは取り立てない。その矛盾を埋めることが出来るのは、あなた自身のお金だけです。


本日のまとめ

どんな正しい意見であれ、スポンサーを説得できないのでは意味がない。

奨学金の返済額を所得に連動させることで、卒業後に厳しい生活を強いられている奨学生を救済することが出来る。

ただし、そのような奨学金は受給者の質を厳選する必要があり、おそらくは「良い大学」へ合格した学生しか受給できない。

現行の取り立てが厳しい(特に厳しいとまでは思わないが…)奨学ローンにも、「より多くの学生に教育の機会を提供できる」というメリットがある。


注:話が逸れるが、これはある意味個々人の教育水準を「毎月利益を生み出す資本」と捉え、それに固定資産税をかけるようなものと言える。昔筆者は親に「親が子に遺せる物で相続税がかからないのは教育だけだ」と言われて、なるほど、と思ったのを覚えているが、いよいよ教育にも国税庁の魔の手が迫っていると言うことなのかも知れない。

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Comments

ご無沙汰しております。着想から3時間(最短記録更新)で書いた代物なので色々粗はありますが、お許し頂きたく…もとはFTの記事を紹介したかっただけなんですけどね。

問題のシリーズ物ですが、次の回は書き上がっているのですが、もう少し書き溜めてから載せようと思ってます。気長にお待ちいただいている(おそらくはごく少数の)方々には、どうかお許しいただきたく。

それから、過去に頂いたコメントには今週末にはお返事する予定です。ほんとごめんなさい。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 10, 2010 at 10:15 AM

初めまして。連載中のものは続きを楽しみにしております。
> 学費を在学中に支払うのではなく、一生涯にわたって所得の1%を大学に支払続ける
ちゃんと徴収できるかというところが問題になるような気がしますね。払う額が高いほど防衛策を講ずる動機も手段も増えますし。ある種の社会通念は必要だと思うのですが、それだとあまり寄付と変わりませんね。
また、奨学金には勉強するインセンティブを与えるという目的もあるはずで、JASSOの奨学金だと優秀者への返還免除があります。優秀者と高収入者はある程度相関があるはずなので、これは上のものとは逆方向を向いていますね。

Posted by: rho | September 11, 2010 at 03:21 AM

固定金利+デフレという組み合わせもまた奨学金返済の足かせになっているんでしょうね。貸し手側からするとデフレの方が負担は軽いはずですが、貸し倒れリスクの増加よりも小さいとも思えませんし、リンク先の記事で指摘されている問題も結局長期のデフレとそれに伴う不況が悪いという事になるんでしょうか。このエントリーのような建設的な議論があれば良いのですが、今後も日本経済が下向いたままだという前提を置いて再設計すると、単なる縮小に終わりそうにも思えてなんとも暗い気持ちになります。
正義の実現には金が必要であるが、金を確保するのに景気を良くするというのが最も現実的な方法であるので、結局多くの社会問題は経済問題なのではないかと思えます。

Posted by: dov | September 12, 2010 at 08:46 AM

今回も面白かったです。
シリーズは楽しみに待っています。

まあ、金も払わず口ばかりの輩が多いのが問題っていう事でもありますね

Posted by: rabi | September 12, 2010 at 09:18 AM

お初のような以前にコメントしたことがあるような……? ともあれ、楽しく読ませていただいております。

実現可能性を脇に置いたまったく個人的な思いつきですが、公費負担されている貸与奨学金の利用者を対象として公務員採用の特別枠を作り、返済分を毎回の給与から定率で天引きするっていうのはどうでしょうね。
取っぱぐれなく返済させることができるうえに、この天引き分は「枠外で採用していたら支払わなければいけなかったお金」ですから、事実上の人件費削減になります。奨学金回収の業務も減るかも。
もちろん今でも一部の奨学生は公務員となり、また大半の奨学生はちゃんと返済していますから、この枠が意味を持つには、「今までよりも多くの奨学生を公務員として採用する」ことが必須となります。競争率が低くなるように枠を設定することになりますね。

まあ学閥とか縁故採用とかが横行してるとロクなことにならなそうですが。

Posted by: NOOK | September 13, 2010 at 05:40 AM

はじめまして。こちらで経済学に興味を持ち、今年から勉強をはじめました。シリーズ物も楽しみですが、こういう時事ネタ(?)も楽しみにしています。

さて奨学金についてですが、優秀な学生から多めに取り立てを行うシステムは「優秀な学生は海外の大学へ進学することになるので取り立て額は増えない」という批判がとてもよく当てはまりそうですね。
(私が見たのは日本の法人税が高いことへの批判でしたが)

ちなみに不景気に強い奨学金制度ということであれば、景気の変動を組み込んだ制度にするのはどうでしょうか?
例えば、支給額を不景気で減額して好景気で増額するとか、返済額を不景気で割引して好景気で割増するとか。

Posted by: soka | September 15, 2010 at 02:46 AM

久しぶりの記事楽しく読ませていただきました。
私は、国立大学そのものが、ある意味、奨学金であって良いと思ってたりします。つまり、低い学費と高い教育を厳しい選抜の下に与える機関として国立大学はあるべきなんじゃないかと。一期校の設立時の思想はそれに近かったと思うのですが、それ以後いろいろな変遷があるように思います。
ただ、国立大学が、法人化されて私立大学のように独立採算に近づくことを要求されているのを見ると、不景気(とデフレ)が普通の奨学金を成立させにくくしているのと同じように、その思想も、デフレ環境下では難しいのかなと。

と言うか、デフレ環境下ではあらゆる投資の環境が悪化するんでしたね。早く、マイルドなインフレにして欲しいなぁ...。

そういえば、自分が大学の時に掲示板をよくよく見てたら、○○県(○○市)のxx財団が同県同市出身の成績優秀者対象の給費型の奨学金の広告がありました。そういう、篤志家と言うが日本でもいましたと言う報告です。

Posted by: ヲ | September 15, 2010 at 04:02 PM

rhoさん、コメントありがとうございます。

FTを読んだとき最初に思ったのはrhoさんと同じ事務コストの点でした。そんなことをまじめに考えてるなんて自民党も追い詰められてるのかなぁと。

おっしゃるとおり、所得に返済額が比例すると、頑張って高給を得るべく勉学に励むインセンティブは確実に低下します。そのため、返済額は所得の10%とか、低い割合に抑えざるを得ないのではないかと思います。(そうすると、学生の選別を更に強化する必要があります)

一方で、大学側にとって見れば、卒業生が就職に成功すればするほど収入が増える(逆も同じ)ことになりますので、大学の教育へのインセンティブは強化されるかもしれませんね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 16, 2010 at 05:53 AM

dovさん、コメントありがとうございます。

景気が良くなってくれればなぁ、というのは私も全く同感ではあります。とはいえ、古今東西景気を完全にコントロールできた例はありませんし、このような問題を考える上では現状を所与として制度設計するしかないのではないかと思います。さもないと、人口増を予想(むしろ期待)してドつぼに嵌った年金の二の舞になってしまいますし。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 16, 2010 at 08:27 AM

rabiさん、コメントありがとうございます。

ええ、まぁ私自身もブログで書きっぱなしですから、口ばっかの輩に分類されても文句は言えないのですが、耳障りが良く書いていて自己陶酔できて且つ反論を受ける恐れの低い文言ばかりを書き連ね、それだけで「自分は社会を変えるべく努力しているんだ」みたいな錯覚に浸るのは勘弁してほしいなぁと思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 16, 2010 at 08:31 AM

いつも楽しく拝見させてもらっております.

株型奨学金はprivate returnに対してのみ累進的に多くの返済を迫ることになりますね.


ざっくり,効率性の議論ですから,(private return+social return)を,社会として割ける予算の制約で,リスクリターンなどもいれつつ,最大化するような制度にすればよいわけです.

この話の延長でいけば,株型奨学金と債券投資型という二種類の奨学金があり,また奨学生という投資案件があって,最も良いと思われるポートフォリオをORなり統計解析するなりして,リスクリターンを把握し,国家として形成する,というのが最適な落しどころだと思います.が,R&Dの成功確率などを含んだリターンがマクロのモデルに入っていない現状,最適な値の導出は難しいでしょう.

政策の目的が,まずは就学機会の確保であること,また,リターンに確率が入った国家を担う*人的資本に対する投資であることから,たとえば政策投資銀行よりは,かなりジェネラスな政策コストがかかってもよいと思いますが,いかがでしょうか.

*(若者が予期せず貧しくなると年金生活者も貧しくなる.などexternalityがある)

Posted by: え | September 16, 2010 at 10:05 AM

NOOKさん、コメントありがとうございます。

おっしゃるとおり、奨学金を給費でもらった人間にはどこかの段階で日本に帰ってくることを義務付けるとか、公務員になることを義務付けられれば、税収増や政府の効率上昇を通した返済率というか利益率はだいぶ向上すると思うんですが、法律上も実際上も、これを強制するのは難しいのが問題ですよねー。

でも、「失業して奨学金が払えないのなら社会福祉のボランティアなどをやって体で返済しろ」とか、奨学生からの返済を現金に限定しないやり方は色々あるように思います(若干中世の奴隷制っぽいですが)。まじめに考えたら面白そうですね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 16, 2010 at 11:28 AM

久々の更新興味深く拝見いたしました。
今まさに奨学金を滞納(猶予?)している身としては耳の痛い話というか。。。

大学進学を将来に対する投資とみる考え(リターンを志向する)はもっと多くの日本人が考えるべきなのかもしれませんね。(というか自分自身がもっと早く(在学中に)そうした考えを持つことができれば、今の境遇はないわけですが;)

続編も期待しております。

Posted by: 76 | September 17, 2010 at 01:19 AM

sokaさん、コメントありがとうございます。

こちらで経済学に興味を持って下さったとのこと、本当に書き手冥利に尽きます。ブログを書き始めた当時、読者の方にそんな形でアプローチが出来るとは思ってもいませんでした。

政府による給費型の奨学金は、いわば将来の所得税増を期待してのものでしょうから、おっしゃるとおり海外に逃げられてしまうと、踏み倒された模造善の結果になってしまいます。一方で、大学の場合、むしろハーバードにでも行ってくれた方が自校の評判に箔がつくことになり、広告費換算で十分元が取れそうです(つまり、給費型は政府よりも大学の方がやりやすい)。

景気連動というのは面白いアイデアだと思います。本文で書いた所得連動型にも似た機能はありますが、景気連動とすることで、「頑張ったのに不景気なせいで報われなかった」人を救済する一方、「好景気でも成功できなかった人」には厳しい返済を要求することになります。これは、コメントの上の方で出てきたインセンティブ問題を解決する一案となりうるように思います。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 20, 2010 at 09:13 AM

ヲさん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが遅れてごめんなさい。

おっしゃるとおり、国立大学の学費を無料化してある意味給費の奨学金とし、そこへの競争を促進してレベルを上げるというのは一つのアイデアだと思います(無料化すると、奨学金は親の所得に依らないmerit baseということになりますが)。

本来、教育投資は40年先までを見据えた長期投資であるべきであって、目先の景気に左右されるべきではないはずですが、日本の場合新卒で就職できるかどうかという要素が大きすぎて、実質的に短期投資扱いになってしまっているのかも知れませんねぇ。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 26, 2010 at 03:20 AM

えさん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが遅れてごめんなさい。

ついでに、プロサッカーリーグのように、優秀な学生は企業が採用するに当たって移籍金のようなお金を大学にも支払うようにすれば、social returnも若干はcapture出来るようになるかも知れませんね。

ちなみに、学資ローンの証券化は過去10年かなり大きな市場となっていましたが、リーマン崩壊以降そのあおりを食らってレポマーケットでの学資ローンABSの流動性が極端に低下し、資金調達に支障が出ているとかいないとか。

おっしゃるとおり、政府がお金を出すのであれば、将来の税収増や正の外部性の発揮も見込んで、手前でロスが出ても問題はないように思います。まぁ、海外脱出する人たちが増えないのが前提になりますが…。そのあたり、どこまでのロスが社会的に許容されるべきか、推定する価値はあると思うんですが、だれかやってくれないものでしょうかね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 26, 2010 at 03:27 AM

76さん、コメントありがとうございます。リプライが遅れてごめんなさい。

昔にも書きましたが、人生そのものがリスクをどこまで取り、どこまでリターンを負うかのギャンブルのようなものですから、その辺りの感覚を身につけておくことは損にはならないと思うんですよね。

シリーズの続編はちまちま書き進んでます。最近のフランスのブルカがらみのニュースで、むしろ第3部を書きたくなってきているのですが…(とはいえ、第2部を説明しないと第3部へ移れない)もう少しお待ち下さい。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 26, 2010 at 03:33 AM

日本の対GDPでの教育投資はOECD国中、最低レベルです。
競争力のある国の教育投資とは段違いすぎます。

教育って個人の資質を育て上げるのと同時に国力の維持・増強が目的ですよね。

そしたら、ローンでなくて、国債を原資にして子供手当てに当てればいいのではないかと思います。社会資本が充実して乗数効果に期待できない中、教育投資と建設投資でいったらどちらのほうが効果が高いという話になります。

日本のほとんどの問題は少子高齢化が絡むので、家計を楽にして子育てをしやすくするためにもいいと思います。

Posted by: んー | September 27, 2010 at 09:14 PM

んーさん、コメントありがとうございます。

日本の教育投資のGDP比率は良く話題に上りますが、気になっているのは、(1)日本のGDPは他国に比べて高いので比率は低くなりやすい (2)日本の大学進学率は既に非常に高い水準にある (3)OECD諸国の中で日本の人口は非常に大きい部類に入る
という点です。特に(2)ですね。

教育投資の充実というと、大学進学率の上昇へと短絡される傾向があるように思いますが、むしろ優秀な学生に教育資本を集中投下するという選択肢ももっと議論されて然るべきかと思います。だれかOECD諸国の一人当たり教育投資額を計算したら、面白い結果が出てくるように思います。

国力の増強というのはおっしゃるとおりですが、私としてはより具体的に「将来の期待税収増」と定義したいと思います。果たして、ここから日本人に教育資本を追加投資して、長期の国債利回りを上回る収益が得られるかどうかが問題なわけです。もし、これ以上日本人に教育を施しても対して税収が増えないとなれば、第3の選択肢としてあきらめて海外に投資するということすら考え得るわけです。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | September 28, 2010 at 09:03 AM

連投すいません。

日本は極端な少子化の影響があるので確かに一人あたりで換算すると、また違う面が見えるかもしれません。とはいえ、産業競争力のある韓国や米国は私費負担はもちろんのこと、公的負担もトップレベルにあります。

それで少子化に関して言えば、膨張圧力が小さく競争原理が働きにくいのと、全入時代や学習塾などの教育サービスが供給超過に陥り、小さい頃から学生とその家族はいわゆる「お客様」として扱われるので、社会性が育たず教科学習もおぼつかない結果に陥っています。さて、これに対して投資配分を変えただけでうまくいくかどうかという問題があります。

そこで、若年層に競争力を生み出すために膨張圧力を強め、また税収増のために生産人口を増加するためには移民政策ということになると思いますが、混血はご法度な日本では難しいなという感じですかね。

Posted by: んー | September 29, 2010 at 12:38 AM

うーん、金が貴重なものだ、労働は尊いと考えるから金に使われる考え方になるんでしょうなぁ。

いつも面白いんですが、そこが引っかかります。

廣宮孝信の反「国家破産」論 ブログ
grandpalais1975.blog104.fc2.com/

いろいろ言われますが、国が借金してそれを支給して勉強くらいさせてやればいいんじゃないでしょうか。
支給した金はもらった人間が使って、だれかの所得になり税収に帰って来るわけですし。

あと、努力すればなんとでもなるみたいな考え方もおかしいですよ。
ネガティブポジティブ、闘争的か否か、記憶力がいいか悪いか、性格を交配で闘犬などでも作れるように生まれる前から環境だとかいろいろな差があります。
となると機会の平等なんで絵空事です。

ホリエモンもいうように仕事なんて遊びですから、もっと人が人生をエンジョイできるように金を国がばらまくなり、再分配とベーシック・インカム位してもいいと思います。
再分配強化したら貧乏人ほど消費性向高いですから金も回るだろうし。

4:20~から ホリエモン「仕事だとかいって遊んでるだけ」
YouTube - 3/23 朝までニコニコ生激論 ベーシック・インカム
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCVDul84vok

あと、まぁいろいろ議論されますけど、いろんな議論で前提にされている個人がたいてい合理的な個人という未だに理性大好きな議論なっているので、情報の非対称性とか制度の歪みとかあるわけですからしょうもない机上の空論もくだらんなぁと思います。

人には寿命がある。時間は有限、一日に処理できる情報量には限界がある、言語の壁、地元への愛着で都市へ就職のために行きづらい、などなどいろんな要素ありますよね。ノイズとして理論に考慮されないものが。

Posted by: トウリス・ガリ | October 24, 2010 at 12:34 AM

今回の記事を読んでいて、奨学金というのは消費者金融と基本的性格が同じなのかな…と思いました。
ある程度の貸倒れを見込んで、その確率を元に貸出金利を設定し、滞納者には取り立てを行って、収益率を維持するという点では似ているように思いました。
その一方で、一流大学の学生への奨学金は転換社債型、株式投資型があり得るように思いました。
転換社債型であれば、例えば東大文1に合格した学生がいて、最初は普通の奨学金だが、司法試験に合格したことを条件に株式型に転換し、元本の返済義務は消滅して、将来の収入の一定割合を投資家に払えばよくなるとか。
また、株式投資型であれば、国立大学医学部に合格した学生には、最初から個人名での株式(××さん株式)を発行して、将来の収入の一定割合を投資家に払えばよくなるとか。さらに、一流大学医学部学生全体の将来の収入を見込んだ投資信託を作って投資を募るとか。
もし、そうなれば証券会社が引受業務の手数料を狙って一流大学や医学部の入学式会場に押し掛けるかもしれませんね。

Posted by: いしかわ | October 26, 2010 at 09:53 PM

Posted by: Excursiones terrestres por San Petersburgo | June 04, 2011 at 04:55 PM

今更のタイミングでのコメントですが..。
Numb3rs(邦題: NUMBERS 天才数学者の事件ファイル)という米国ドラマの1エピソードを思い出しました。確か第11話(セイバー・メトリクスを扱った回)だったと思います。
ネタばれになるので詳しくは書きませんが,印象に残っている話なので,本記事を読んで思い出した次第です。よければ見てみてください。
--
私の学生時代は,お金に困っている訳でもないのに奨学金をもらっている人が周りに結構いて,しかも彼らの多くが「いかに奨学金を返さずにすますか」に腐心していた(就職先をそれで決めるとか,n年バックレれば大丈夫とか)のを見ているので,奨学金をもらって返さない人に対しては正直「さもしい人」というイメージしか持てないのですが,今は違うのでしょうか?
かつてのそういう状況を知る人間としては,まず本当に金銭的に困っている(and/or)本当に優秀な人にだけ奨学金が渡るようにするところから始めるべきかと考えます。

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