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価格規制と数量規制:関東の電力不足対策

今回の震災で被害に会われた方々に心よりお見舞い申し上げます。過去に例の少ない悲惨な被害と、過去に例の無い多くの映像記録とに圧倒されつつ、色々と思うこともありました。しかし私の個人的な感情には衆目に晒すほどの価値はありませんので、ここでは自分が書けることを書いていこうと思います。


少し前にニュースを読んでいたら、民主党の岡田幹事長が「計画停電に変えて価格制限を行うべき」と発言したらしい。確かに、現状の輪番停電はあくまでも緊急避難であって、今後より効率の良い方法を考えなければならないことに疑問の余地もなければ議論の余地もない。

ただし、それは「価格制限(価格メカニズムの活用)の方が議論の余地無く望ましい」という事ではない。価格メカニズムの活用は、経済学が得意とする効率的で「エレガント」な解ではあるが、非効率で野暮ったい数量統制(例えば配給制)の方が最適になるケースもあるということを、経済学は教えてくれている。

そこで、今回は少し趣向を変えて、少し経済学を表に出したエントリーを書いてみたい。もちろん、経済学を勉強していない人にも分かるように書くつもりだが、そうは言っても退屈に思う読者の方もいるかも知れないので、今回は「今日のまとめ」を最初に持ってくることにした。興味のない方はこれだけお持ち帰り頂きたい。


本日のまとめ

価格規制は効率性に優れるが、数量規制は確実性に優れる。(注1)

価格か量か、という単純な構図は存在しない。

少なくとも大口消費先(工場など)については、数量規制の方が望ましい。

価格メカニズムの活用は、数量規制から少しずつ移行していく形がよい。そのためには、電力消費量が一定水準を超えたところで料金が跳ね上がる仕組みが便利。

良心に支えられた現在の節電行動は、価格メカニズムの導入で消え去る可能性を考慮すべき。




さて、昔から、市場の「神の見えざる手」に任せるよりも、政府が介入した方がうまくいくケースというのはたくさんあった。「どのようなケースで政府介入が必要か」は昔こちらで書いたので繰り返さないが、もう一つの大きな問題は「どうやって介入するか」にある。そして、経済学では、主に2つの方法が検討されてきた。1つは価格規制。たばこは健康に悪いから高税率をかけて喫煙者を減らそう、というのがこれだ。例のサラ金の上限金利設定もこれに含まれる。もうひとつが数量規制。戦時の配給制、各種許認可、最近であれば二酸化炭素の排出規制、そして今回の計画停電がこれにあたる。


電力需要の決まり方

まず、価格規制と数量規制がどう電力需要に影響を及ぼすのかを考えよう。電力需要は、一人一人の消費者が電気を使うことでどれだけの「幸せ」を得られるか、その幸せが電気代を上回っているかどうかで決まる。もし40Wだけ電力を使うことが出来たら何を優先するか。恐らく、照明と冷蔵庫。これらから我々が得られる幸せは大きい。夏であれば、これに加えて冷房(+100W)も必須だろう。例え電気代が高くとも、電気を使わずにはいられない。一方で、もし秋であれば、冷房からそこまでの幸せは得られない。もし夏と秋の電気料金が同じであれば、夏の電力需要は増え、秋のそれは低下する。下の図はそれを図解したものだ。

Teiden1_2

さて、ここで夏の電力需要を秋並に減らしたいと思ったらどうすればいいだろう。現実性をとりあえず無視すると、エアコンの使用を禁止する法律を作ったりして、各世帯の消費電力を強制的に秋の水準に落としてしまえばよい。これが数量規制という奴で、現在の輪番停電もこれの一種だ。もう一つは、夏場に電気料金を値上げしてしまう方法。電気代が高すぎて、とてもエアコンの電源は入れられない。

Teiden2

ここで重要なのは、このきわめて単純な構図では、価格規制も数量規制も全く同じ結果になると言うこと。価格規制ではエアコン禁止などという無茶な命令はしないが、結局消費者はエアコンを止めるので、結果は変わらないのである。

では何故経済学者は数量規制よりも価格規制を好むのかというと、数量規制というのは、人々に違いを認めない硬直的なシステムになりがちだからだ。上の図では「夏は冷房必要だよね」という、日本人の平均的感覚を前提に話をしたのだが、実際には日本人にも色々いる。扇風機でもいいや、という人もいるだろうし、逆にお年寄りの場合エアコン無しでは猛暑を越せないという人だっているだろう。それを一律に「エアコンは1日1時間まで」とかやってしまっては、お年寄りは困る。実際、現在の輪番停電でも、病院から信号機まで一律に巻き添えを食らっているわけだし。

価格規制は、このような多様性に強い。下の図のように、エアコンがどうしても必要な人にとっては安く思え、そうでない人には高すぎると感じられるような、そういう価格に電気料金を設定することで、本当に電気を必要としている人にだけ電気を供給し、それ以外の人の電力消費を削ることが出来る。そして、平均値でみれば、数量規制と同じ電力需要を達成できるという寸法だ。数量規制でこれをやろうとすると、各世帯とじっくり面談した上で、一世帯ずつ配電盤を切り替えなければならない。価格規制は効率性に優れるとは、こういう意味である。

Teiden3


価格規制はなぜ難しいか

ただし、価格規制が効率的なのは、適切な価格を設定できた場合の話だ。冷房を本当に必要にしている人だけがエアコンのスイッチを入れたくなる電力料金とは一体いくらなのか?1kw当たり40円?それとも100円?高すぎては誰もエアコンが使えなくなるし、安すぎては大規模停電を引き起こしかねない。そもそも、冷房を本当に必要とする人の数自体、暑い日と寒い日とでは変わってくる。ということは適正な価格自体毎日変わるし、もっと言えば毎分異なる。

通常であれば、たまに料金が安すぎたり高すぎたりして電力需要が上下しても、平均的に見てうまくいっていれば問題ない、と考えるべきだろう。しかし、今回は事情が違う。例え一度でも需要が供給を上回れば、大規模停電を引き起こす恐れがある。そのコストを考えると、「大規模停電は10回ほど起きたが、全体的には価格規制はうまく機能した」という主張は、せいぜい嘲笑の的になるだけだ。

更に悪いことに、かかったコストにマージンを上乗せして価格を決めてきた東京電力には、需要を見極めて価格を決定するという経験が足りない。おそらく、価格を変えればどう需要が変化するかというデータすら不足しているだろう。或る程度の試行錯誤を繰り返して経験とデータを蓄積していくしかないが、今の東電にはその余裕、すなわち電力の供給余力が決定的に足りない。

もう一点付け加えると、このような価格メカニズムに失敗した後、謝罪して全てを元に戻しても、もはや今までどおりの節電を消費者に期待できないかもしれない。レヴィット=ダブナーが「ヤバい経済学(Freakonomics)」で、子供を定刻までに迎えに来ない親に業を煮やしたイスラエルの保育園の話を紹介している。この保育園では、経済学者のアドバイスを容れて、遅刻した親に罰金を科すことにした。1回につき3ドル。しかしこの罰金はどうやら少額過ぎたようで、多くの親が堂々と遅刻をするようになってしまったらしい。その後この罰金プログラムは取りやめられて下の仕組みに戻ったのだが、親の遅刻は元の水準には戻らなかったという。ポイントは2つ。適切な価格設定は言うほどに易くはないということ。そして、良心というのは、一度貨幣価値に変換してしまうと、もう一度良心に戻すことは出来ないらしいということだ(注2)。東京電力が節電の代わりにより高い料金を要求し始めたとき、つましく節電を続けてきた日本人の行動はどう変わるのだろうか。興味深い問題だが、今の日本にそれを試す余裕はあるのだろうか?


数量規制に出来ること・出来ないこと

実は、適正な価格を知らないまま、適切な価格規制を行うことは出来る。数量規制を取引可能にしてしまえばいいのだ。とりあえずみんなに一定の電力を割り当てて、それ以上の電力が必要な人はそうでない人から買えばよい。そこで決まった値段が、適正な価格になり、結果として数量規制は適正な価格規制と同等の効率を達成する。要は、二酸化炭素の排出権取引の受電権版を作ればよいのだ。

もちろん、「4丁目の鈴木さんから3時間分の電気を買ったので今日はうちは停電しないで」というのは現実には不可能だ。そもそも、関東圏3000万人が参加する取引市場など創設できるわけも無い。ただし、受電量をきめ細かくコントロールできる大口消費者なら、このような取引は可能だ。実のところ、このような取引はすでに行われている。こちらのニュースにあるような、「計画停電から輪番操業へ」というやつだ。メーカー各社で計画的に操業日を配分して全体の消費量を抑えよう、というのは、受電権の物々交換に他ならない。取引価格が表に出ないので分かりづらいだけだ。これに金銭の授受が絡めば立派な取引になる。

まだこの輪番創業の試みがどれだけうまくいくかは分からないが、これがある程度軌道に乗るのであれば、大口需要者については数量規制の方が望ましいと言えるだろう。なにしろ、数量規制には価格規制にはないメリットがある。それは、量で規制しているので、電力需要がどう変化しようが、電力需要が限界を超えることは絶対にないと言うこと。確実性こそが数量規制のメリットなのだ。需要を読み間違えただけで大規模停電になりかねない価格規制とは安定感が違う


問題なのは残りの小口の一般消費者だが、技術的に可能であるならば、各世帯それぞれで一定以上の電力を使うとブレーカーが落ちてしまうような数量規制が当面一番確実なのではないかと思う。というか、数量規制で輪番停電を回避しようとすれば、薄く広くやるより他に方法がない。

ただし、これを実行するには、もしかしたら各世帯の配電盤をひとつひとつ修正して廻る必要があるのかも知れない。それにかかるコストと時間が現実的ではない、という場合、実は価格規制を用いることで同じ結果を出すことが出来る。「お前×××したら1おくまんえん払ってもらうからな!」というのは子供の常套句だが、これは「×××したら罰金として1億万円を申し受けますので、契約書にサインを」という意味ではなく、「てめえ×××するんじゃねぇぞ」という意味である。つまり、法外な料金を請求することと、数量を直接制限することに違いはない。一定以上の電力を使うことを禁止する代わりに、一定以上の電力使用に高い料金を請求すればよいわけだ。請求書を書き換えるだけで、配電盤の調整を省略できるのだから、これは相当に安上がりな方法だ。価格規制が効率がよいのは、実行が容易という点にもある

この場合、適正な価格などというものを考えなくて良いのも利点だ。ただ法外でさえあればそれでよい。売上はそのまま国庫に回して、「電気は必要だがお金がない」人に支給すればよろしい。そして、電力に余裕があるようなら、そこから電力需要が伸びてくるまで、少しずつ値段を下げていく。そうすることで、大規模停電のリスクを抑えつつ、最適な価格を探ることが出来るというわけだ。これは、数量規制から緩やかに滑らかに価格規制にシフトしていくと言うことでもある。

Teiden4

ここまで辛抱強く読み進んで下さった読者の方にはもう明らかだと思うのだが、価格規制と数量規制はそれぞれメリットデメリットがあり、単純にどちらが望ましい、と断言することは難しい。そもそも、すぐ上で見たように、数量規制と価格規制の区別を付けることすら難しい場合すらある。筆者個人は大口需要者とそれ以外で違う仕組みを採用するのが望ましいと思うが、他力本願なことを言えば、上の議論を全て吹き飛ばす技術革新が今回の試行錯誤から生まれてくれないものかと祈っている。経済学は与えられた条件の中でどうやりくりをするかを考える学問であり、あちらを立てればこちらが立たず的なジレンマから自由になることは不可能ではないが難しい。技術革新というのは、そのジレンマを根本からひっくり返すポテンシャルを秘めているのだから。


注1: 価格規制が効率的で数量規制が確実だ、というのは、原則として今回の電力不足問題を念頭に置いての話。価格・数量規制についての古典である(らしい) Weitzman(1974)では、数量規制と価格規制のどちらが望ましいかは、限界効用・費用曲線の傾きと、限界費用関数の不確実性の度合いによって決まる(面白いことに、限界効用の不確実性は無関係になる)。今回の議論でWeitzmanのモデルを使えないのは、電力消費が一定量を超えると突然死重損失が跳ね上がるという特殊な構造になっているため。この一点から言っても、電力需要それ自体を規制する数量規制の有利さが分かると思う。数量規制の非効率さは言うまでもないが、今回のケースでは、効率性はsocial welfareを測る唯一の尺度ではないように思う(効率の定義にもよるが)。

注2:経済学的な用語を使えば、複数均衡間の選択は誰にも出来ないのだから、現状それなりに良い均衡にいるなら、敢えてその均衡を壊す選択をすることはない、ということになる。

参考文献:
MZ Weitzman (1974), "Prices vs. quantities", Review of Economic Studies.

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Comments

ご無沙汰しております。

このブログに時折立ち寄って下さる読者の方々の無事をお祈りしております。

・・・それにしても、なんだかフォントサイズが小さくなっているような気がするのですが…それに横幅が狭くなっているような・・・気のせいでしょうか。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 05, 2011 at 11:07 AM

ご無沙汰しています。
僕はこの話をエイプリルフールネタにして茶化してしまったのですが、きちんと論じてくれる方がいて良かったです。

http://d.hatena.ne.jp/Baatarism/20110401/1301604867

価格規制万能論を唱える経済学者もいるようですが、きちんとメリットとデメリットを論じているこちらの方が良いですね。

Posted by: Baatarism | April 05, 2011 at 12:24 PM

たしかに、ステップファンクションで価格を吊り上げると言うのは良い手のように思いますね。20A以上は普通の3倍、30A以上は普通の10倍とか取ればよいわけですよね?

ただ、クレジットカードで借金地獄にはまる人がいるように、後払いなので、気づかないもしくは気にし忘れて使っちゃう人が結構いそうな気がします。携帯電話の電話料金なんかもそんな感じのことがあるみたいですね。パケ死にとか。
されに言えば、各家庭でリアルタイムで使用電力を見れるシステムなんて有る家は少ないでしょうし。

後払いなこととも関連しますが、結構、冷房とかの電力需要って需要曲線が結構立っているように思うのです。気のせいでしょうか?

ところで、技術革新ですが、結局、熱力学の法則の枠内でして、なかなか、難しいですね。そう考えると電気というのは高級なエネルギーなので、それで熱を作ると言うのは実は非効率なので、原理的にはオール電化とか効率がいいはずがないのですが、主に国の原子力政策の結果、経済性は高かったりします。オール電化とか選択する人はその辺分かってるのかなぁと思うことが、結構あったのですが...。

ちなみに、当方の職場は電力の大口需要家ということで、毎年夏には電力使用を1/4程度には抑えていますが、地震後は、極端に節電しています。通常時の1/30くらいで活動しています。まぁ、震災で被災したというのもあるのですが...。あと、一部の人は福島からの避難者の放射線サーベイに協力しているようです。

Posted by: ヲ | April 06, 2011 at 01:56 AM

輪番停電によるtime-inconsistencyによって、電力を使う側が計画ができなくなることによるロスが大きいですからね。価格規制(所得保障+電力価格上げ)と大口総量規制両方やって、停電アナウンスを減らすべきでしょう。あとピークカットに補助金をだす。たとえばエアコンのエコポイントを延長してもよいですね。

もちろん、発電量も増やす。他電力会社からもってこれる電気量も多くする。夏場の休みを推奨して、関東から関西へ人を動かすなどしてもよい。

いろいろオプションは思いつきますが、技術革新は夏までに間に合いますかどうか。ただの素人の思いつきですが、冬場と夏場で北半球と南半球で太陽光パネルを融通できるシステムとかどうですかねえ。

Posted by: わ | April 06, 2011 at 12:45 PM

料金を高くしても肝心のピーク時の節電にはあんまり用をなさない気もします。

それはそれとして、上値を抑えるのも良いですが、契約アンペアよりも節電したらその分電気代が加算的に安くなるとかエコポイント的なモノがもらえるとか飴の方があっても良さそうですね。

Posted by: shylock | April 07, 2011 at 04:46 AM

Baatarismさん、どうもお久しぶりです。

値上げを東電が認めさせるにはやっぱり社長がジャンピング土下座しないとだめかな、みたいなしょうもないことは私も考えていたんですが、Baatarismさんのネタには敵いそうに無いので書かなくて正解でした(笑)。

正直、価格規制はoperational なレベルでは実行が容易なので、一度政府が価格万能主義にはまると後が大変そうだなーと思ったのもこのエントリーを書いた理由のひとつです。

まぁ、こんな場末のブログが影響をもてるとは思えないので、自己満足みたいなものなんですけど。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 08, 2011 at 08:32 AM

経済学の門外漢にも分かりやすいエントリありがとうございます。社内レポートに引用してしまいました(爆) よぉし、経済学がそこまで頑張ってくれるなら、技術も頑張るぞ、という気になります。最後の段落で技術への期待を述べられていますが、スマートグリッドはその可能性を秘めています。問題は、「日本版スマートグリッド」なるものは従来、東電が認めた範囲でのみ議論されていたこと、それ以外は全て抹殺されていた事です。自由を貰えるならば、技術にはかなりの可能性があります。この問題に限るならば。応援よろしく。

Posted by: Forsterstrasse | April 10, 2011 at 07:06 AM

ヲ様、横から失礼します。オール電化は省エネとCO2削減の切り札の一つと考える者です。電気をそのまま熱にすると確かに効率が悪いですが、電気をヒートポンプを動かす動力に使うと効率が上がります。熱力学的に言うと、第一法則の限界を追求する場合には電気は効率が悪いですが、第2法則の限界を追求する場合には電気は扱いやすいソースです。詳しくは小宮山宏先生とかの著作をどうぞ。

Posted by: Forsterstrasse | April 10, 2011 at 07:18 AM

ヲさん、コメントありがとうございます。

まずはご無事で何よりでした。ご職場の復旧をお祈りしております。今までは系列の一工場が被災しても、関係各社が支援を集中させて短期間で操業再開、という仕組みが機能していたと思うのですが、今回のように大規模な被災ではそうも行かないのが難しいところですね・・・

ステップファンクション型の価格規制は、価格がジャンプする「量」も決めなければならないので、必ずしも効率的な規制とはいえないのですが、今回のように規制すべき量がある程度はっきりしているケースでは有用だと思います。

需要曲線の傾き(=需要の価格弾力性)は大切な問題ですが、ステップファンクションの場合単純に「いちおくまんえん」的な価格設定を行えば、傾きを気にしなくて済むというのも利点ですね。ただし、脚注でも触れましたが、より一般的なケースでは、数量/価格規制の選択には需要曲線の傾きが非常に重要になります。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 11, 2011 at 02:21 AM

わさん、コメントありがとうございます。

技術革新は夏までにはどうしようもないですよね・・・。

どうやらそれなりの電力を夏までに確保でき、輪番停電は中止、大口需要者には総量規制、という流れになってきているように思いますが、当面はこれが最適解ではないかと思います。

どちらにせよ、中長期的には電力価格の値上げは、東電のコスト構造から言っても不可避だと思います。それに、節電や他の発電方法の技術革新を促すためにも、電気代は高いほうがいいでしょうし(個人的には、私は原発反対派ではありませんが)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 11, 2011 at 02:30 AM

shylockさん、コメントありがとうございます。

他の方のご指摘にもあるとおり、値段が高いからといってそれが即節電につながるかというと、正直疑わしい点はあると思います。特に、単に高い電気代をチャージするやり方の場合、「高いけど1分だけならいいや」とドライヤーを回したりする人も多いでしょうし。それでみんなが同じタイミングでドライヤーを回したら大変です。上限でブレーカーを落とすようにしないと無理かもしれませんね。

罰金ではなく、rewardを出すというのはいいアイデアだと思います。プリウスでもそうですが、「いくら節約できたか」を可視化すると、それにのめりこむ人って多いですもんね。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 11, 2011 at 02:33 AM

Forsterstrasseさん、コメントありがとうございます。

お役に立てたようで幸いです(笑)。

スマートグリッドという技術は今回初めて知ったのですが、いろいろと面白そうな技術ですね。東電の認めた範囲内でのみ行われていたというのが興味深いといいますか、それは独占的供給者の弊害の典型例であって政府が介入すべき事例だと思うのですが・・・

どちらにせよ、今回の一件で東電は「いかなる事例でも批判の対象になる村八分者」となり(中央官僚みたいに)、東電のマイナスになることは全てが奨励される風潮が出来上がるように思います。そうなると、その辺りの技術開発も自由度が上がってくるかもしれませんね(この辺りは後で書くつもりです)。

Posted by: 馬車馬 | April 11, 2011 at 02:53 AM

馬車馬さん、ありがとうございます。
60Hz圏の同業者が手を貸してくれるようで、営業運転はできなくても、一部のユーザーには多少の不便で済むようであるのが、不幸中の幸いと言えば幸いですが、ただ、当方が世界的にもトップクラスの性能を出してる部門は代替が利かないので、厳しい状況です。幸い隣の原子炉は、定期点検中で安定的に停止してましたし、隣の敷地の原発はディーゼル発電機が何台か津波に飲まれず生き残って、冷温停止しました。もっとも、逆隣の火力発電所では、煙突から人が落ちて死んでしまったようですが。

さて、熱力学の話について、指名があったので、人のところで議論するのが適切か分かりませんが、簡単に。
私は、オール電化は、最終的には非効率だと思っています。実現可能かどうかは別として、原理的には、分散発電による廃熱利用によって、熱力学第二法則の限界はより高まるはずです。
ご指摘になってるヒートポンプの利用は、たくさんの小さい温度差を発電所で生じるちょっとの高い温度差で作り出すことにあたります。また、それゆえ、ヒートポンプでは調理をするだけの高温を作り出すことはできません(原理的にはできなくはないが、非常に効率が悪化するはずです)ので、オール電化ではIHを併用せねばならず、それほど効率がよいわけでは無さそうだと感じています。また、小さい温度差なら、分散発電なら廃熱で作り出すことができます。

オール電化が経済的なのは、熱力学的に効率的だからではなく、原発推進というエネルギー安全保障上の要請による政府からの外部経済が大きく影響していると思います。ただし、二酸化炭素排出量にのみ注目するなら原発が非常に効率よいので、オール電化による低減は可能かもしれません。また、原発は、負荷追随運転が範囲も限られ、難しいですから、夜間電力の利用と言うのも確かに意味があります。しかし、これらのメリットはすべて原発を前提としていることに注意する必要が有るかと思っています。

不適切でしたら削除してください。

Posted by: ヲ | April 18, 2011 at 06:19 PM

馬車馬さんのエントリーを、ずっと楽しみにしている者です。

お元気にされていますでしょうか?

次のエントリーを気長に待っておりますよー(笑

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While you are setting up a jewellery purchase, it is essential to sense a degree of trust and comprehending with all the salesperson you might be working together with. If you do not feel comfortable with the sales rep helping you or they are not grasping the thought of what you are looking for, usually do not be reluctant to request someone else to be of assistance together with your obtain.
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A dash of sugar-cinnamon will almost certainly include some very low-calories flavour to many meals. This can be used in oat meal or on refreshing foods in an effort to add more flavoring, without the need for sugars. This may give the foods, a treat sort of a flavor, without all the fat and unhealthy calories of the real treat.

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For those who have chose to offer white red wine at your after that gathering, be sure to only store it from the refrigerator a few hours before providing time. Holding the white-colored red wine inside the fridge very long (two or three days) can impact how your red wine preferences as well as the fragrance.

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